370 episodes
Forward Guidance Blockworks
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- Business
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:50) Does China Face A Choice Between Deflation And Devaluation?
(19:38) VanEck Ad
(20:39) The Long-Term Debt Cycle
(29:30) How To Invest For A Recession Free Future
(34:40) Lags In Healthcare And Shelter Measures of Inflation
(42:03) The Fed
(55:20) Age Of Secularly High Inflation
(01:04:20) The Japanese Yen
(01:17:20) Asset Allocation Within Equity Space
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024
For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward
Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) The QT Taper
(05:25) Was The May FOMC Meeting A Dovish or a Hawkish Meeting?
(09:01) The Fed Is Now Focusing On The Softening Labor Market, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(22:53) U.S. Economy Entered Recession In October, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth
(29:53) Consumer Spending
(33:11) Layoffs in 2024
(36:22) New Neutral Rate Of Interest
(38:32) Private Equity & Private Credit
(47:07) The Bernanke Doctrine
(51:24) Basel III Endgame
(56:33) Dissents
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Crypto Endgame in 2024 | Fireside Chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund
This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Today’s episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit Portfolio Manager at Millennium Management.
Pranav’s Substack: https://killerapps.substack.com/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:31) Kanade's Journey Into Crypto
(10:43) Kanade's Investment Philosophy
(13:55) Is Crypto In A New Bull Market?
(35:32) Leverage And Funding Rates
(38:01) How Macro (And The Federal Reserve) Impacts Crypto
(48:45) Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN)
(52:42) Tesla
(54:54) Crypto Venture Capitalists (VCs)
(58:15) Eth vs. Sol
(01:01:12) At This Stage, Most AI Crypto Things Is "Nonsense"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
The Stock Market Will Melt-Up As Inflation Resurges | Harris Kupperman
This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns?
Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold miners, uranium & more. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Follow Harris: https://twitter.com/hkuppy
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) Nobody's Ready For Higher Inflation
(02:59) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024?
(05:26) Gold
(09:25) Oil
(17:04) VanEck Ad
(18:07) The Uranium Trade
(30:37) Gaining Gold Exposure vs Owning The Miners
(37:06) The A.I Trade & Investing In Your Circle Of Competence
(39:59) Bitcoin
(42:58) The Bond Market Sell-Off Can Continue
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Can The U.S Handle High Interest Rates Past 2024? | Ben Miller
This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/BenMillerise
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:47) The U.S Debt Problem
(08:25) Private vs Public Debt
(15:02) VanEck Ad
(16:05) Can The U.S Handle Higher Interest Rates Past 2024?
(31:22) Commercial Real Estate & The Debt Duration Reset
(35:26) The Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb
(47:02) State Of The Housing Market
(49:24) Prices Are Not At Distressed Levels... Yet
(56:03) The Bull Case For CRE
(01:05:59) The Real Estate Sector Is Praying For A Recession
(01:07:28) Lending & Private Credit
(01:12:16) What Happens If Rates Stay Higher For Longer?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. -
Chris Whalen: “Higher For Longer” Interest Rate Regime Is Bad For Banks
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down"
(04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
(13:26) VanEck Ad
(14:26)
(17:31) Consumer Deposits Have Become "Toxic"
(20:07) Schwab
(22:15) Chris Expects Mid-Size Banks To "Do Better Than The Big Guys" Next Year
(24:43) If There's No Recession, Are Bank Stocks Still Cheap?
(27:41) Higher For Longer Will Continue To Be Bad For Banks' Core Business of Taking Deposits And Making Loans
(30:19) Bank of America Should Be "Spanked"
(32:59) Only A Few Fed Cuts Are Needed To Improve Banks' Position
(35:13) Consumer Credit Continues To Be Fine ("Not Even At 2019 Levels")
(37:10) Credit Risk Issues For Banks Are Primarily In CRE
(38:12) New York Community Bank