Inevitable & Obvious

Paul Gambill

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Conversations with the researchers, founders, and strategists working on the most important climate question nobody's talking about: what do we do when emissions cuts and carbon removal can't work fast enough? www.inevitableandobvious.com

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Building Governance From Scratch — Janos Pasztor, Former ED, Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative

A former UN Assistant Secretary-General spent seven years trying to get world leaders to talk about planetary cooling. Most of them told him the same thing: "We can't talk about this publicly." Janos Pasztor led the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G), the first organization to systematically bring solar radiation modification governance to governments, diplomats, and the UN system. In this conversation, he walks through what those private meetings actually sounded like, why a landmark UN event was killed by COVID days before launch, how a Pakistani minister's first question revealed what actually drives national policy, and why the biggest gap right now isn't research or technology but the societal conversations that still aren't happening. Chapter Timestamps * [00:00] Opening: “We can’t talk about this publicly” — what Janos heard behind closed doors * [02:21] What was C2G, and what does “governance” actually mean? * [06:59] Breaking down SRM governance into manageable pieces — research, decision-making, and the question of what happens if the answer is no * [11:44] The case against unilateral deployment — counter-geoengineering and the IPCC’s warning * [19:13] “What planet are you coming from?” — how reception shifted from bewilderment to engagement * [23:51] The Belgium UN event that COVID killed, and what it would have meant * [29:19] Why politicians are afraid to go beyond the 1.5°C frame * [35:02] How countries actually develop positions — the multi-layered feedback loops behind government policy * [41:47] “What do Pakistani scientists say?” — the global south, Degrees Initiative, and building local capacity * [47:57] What C2G learned about trust, impartiality, and opening doors * [53:12] The biggest gap right now: societal conversations that aren’t happening * [56:33] What keeps Janos awake — geopolitics, bandwidth, and the timing problem * [1:01:42] If C2G were active today, what would it do differently? Links and Resources * Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G): c2g2.net If this kind of inside view conversation where we talk about how governance actually works, what's happening behind closed doors, and what isn't, then subscribe at inevitableandobvious.com. Every episode brings you into a direct conversation with the people navigating the hardest questions in climate intervention. Next up: we're continuing to build this picture of the emerging ecosystem with more voices you won't hear anywhere else. Get full access to Inevitable & Obvious at www.inevitableandobvious.com/subscribe

1 h 5 min
24 MAR

"Are You Going To Stop Me Cooling The Earth?" — Luke Iseman, Founder of Make Sunsets

Luke Iseman is putting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere with high-altitude balloons and selling cooling credits to pay for it. And he doesn’t care if you approve. Make Sunsets is maybe the most polarizing company in climate interventions right now, and I wanted to have Luke on the show so we could learn more about how they think and what their goals are. We discussed the question that if we assuming cooling the planet is necessary (and we both believe it is), does that justify acting without institutional permission? We get into the energy math on carbon removal, the governance question, and a wealthy customer who may be planning to personally fund enough deployment to measurably cool the planet. Chapter Timestamps * 01:22 — What Make Sunsets actually does and how cooling credits work * 05:07 — The energy math against carbon removal: why CDR needs 20x global energy production * 07:00 — Luke’s vision for 2100: nuclear energy, 10x global prosperity, and table stakes * 10:50 — “We’ve been geoengineering since the industrial revolution” * 15:11 — Theory of change, the wealthy customer revelation, and “are you going to stop me?” * 19:40 — Deployment risks: monsoon disruption, weaponization, and the Pentagon’s response * 25:27 — Luke’s critique of governance approaches being taken today * 30:29 — The smallpox analogy: does innovation precede or follow institutions? * 38:36 — What success looks like for Make Sunsets in 10 years (0.1°C measurable cooling) * 47:39 — The Mexico ban that wasn’t, and why getting the facts right matters * 53:19 — What the field needs: “bold action” vs. “analysis and meetings” * 55:07 — Paul’s post-interview reflection: where he agrees and where he doesn’t Notable Quotes * “Are you going to stop me? And unless someone is going to do that... the cat’s out of the bag. Anyone can do this.” — Luke Iseman * “Unless you are breaking the law to build nuclear reactors, I don’t want to hear about CDR from anyone proposing it as a serious climate solution.” — Luke Iseman * “People are obsessed with developing governance for something for which there’s no demand. You govern things for which there is demand.” — Luke Iseman, quoting a friend * “I have a lot more respect now for the institutions that govern things that can help make decisions, the social license and legitimacy that comes from working through much more traditional systems.” — Paul Gambill (post-interview) * “Every day that we wait to do solar geoengineering is needless lives lost, species extincted, and tipping points flirted with.” — Luke Iseman Links and Resources * Make Sunsets: Luke’s company, where you can buy cooling credits * Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson: the novel that inspired Luke to start Make Sunsets * “Why Countries Aren’t Ready for Climate Interventions Yet” (Inevitable & Obvious) This and every episode I publish is free because I want these conversations to reach as many people as possible. Paid subscriptions are how I keep doing this work independently. They allow me to follow the research on climate interventions and meet the researchers, practitioners, founders, and policymakers shaping how this landscape evolves. Paid members get access to our community chat, where we discuss the latest developments in climate interventions and make sense of them together. If you found this conversation valuable, I’d appreciate your support. Get full access to Inevitable & Obvious at www.inevitableandobvious.com/subscribe

58 min
17 MAR

What We Don’t Know About Cooling the Planet — Dakota Gruener, CEO of Reflective

Stratospheric aerosol injection might be one of the only interventions that could reduce global warming on the timescales that actually matter, but we don't yet know enough to say if it's completely worth the potential tradeoffs, and we're not on track to find out in time. Dakota Gruener is the founder and CEO of Reflective, an independent nonprofit trying to change that by radically accelerating the research. In this conversation, we talk about what it would take to actually evaluate SAI: • The tools Reflective has built to map the unknowns • The case for something like clinical trials for the atmosphere • Why Dakota thinks the worst outcome isn't deployment but decisions being forced before the science is ready. Subscribe for free at inevitableandobvious.com Get full access to Inevitable & Obvious at www.inevitableandobvious.com/subscribe

59 min

3 episodios

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Paul Gambill
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2 mil
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3
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Inevitable & Obvious

Inevitable & Obvious

Episodios

Building Governance From Scratch — Janos Pasztor, Former ED, Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative

"Are You Going To Stop Me Cooling The Earth?" — Luke Iseman, Founder of Make Sunsets

What We Don’t Know About Cooling the Planet — Dakota Gruener, CEO of Reflective

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