Prediction Market Movers

Prediction News

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

  1. HACE 4 D

    From Manifold to MNX: Stephen Grugett’s Big Bet on AI Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets. MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures tied to the artificial intelligence economy. In this conversation, Stephen Grugett explains: • Why Manifold originally chose play-money markets over crypto • The limitations of traditional yes/no prediction markets • How AI company valuation markets could function • What perpetual futures (“perps”) are and why they matter • The mechanics behind synthetic derivatives and open interest • Infrastructure decisions, including Ethereum Layer 2 deployment • Regulatory considerations for offshore vs U.S. launch • How MNX differs from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #AI #Crypto #MNX #Manifold #PerpetualFutures #OpenAI #Anthropic #Fintech #Web3 #Derivatives #ArtificialIntelligence #MarketInnovation

    26 min

  2. 26 FEB

    Trading Trump's words, with Tyrael, a mention market trader | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address. Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and why speech-based contracts can be some of the most mispriced markets in the prediction space. Tyrael explains how he combines historical transcript frequency data with real-time geopolitical developments to price words before they’re spoken. He walks through the difference between scripted language and “weave” improvisation, how that affects probabilities, and why certain words like “Sleepy Joe” were clear fades during a formal address. The conversation also dives into: • How he handicaps State of the Union mention markets • The ethics of insider trading in prediction markets • Pre-recorded interview leak risk and adverse selection • “Rule cucks” and controversial resolutions on Kalshi and Polymarket • Why some mention markets (late night shows, TV tapings) may not belong on exchanges at all   Tyrael also shares how he transitioned into trading full-time, lessons from early losses (including a conviction bet on Josh Shapiro as VP), and how he balances high-intensity live event trading with family life. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Winning big during the State of the Union 3:00 - Trading on politics 4:30- On mentions markets 7:00 - Why mention markets? 9:30 - How long did it take to become a job? 12:00 - Balancing being a dad and a trader 14:50 - Managing information leaks 17:00 - Insider trading vs. sharp trading 19:50 - Navigating “pump schemes” 24:00 - improvements in market resolutions 27:00 - Which mention markets have value? For more for info on Tyrael, check him out on X - @ØxTyrael #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #PoliticalTrading #EventContracts #ElectionMarkets #StateOfTheUnion #DonaldTrump #Midterms #CFTC #CryptoPredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    29 min

  3. 19 FEB

    Alex Kane on CFTC Approval, Market Makers, Handle Taxes & Market Needs | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framework. Alex explains why the exchange model struggles under state tax structures, and why federal regulation may allow more innovation, better pricing, and stronger liquidity. We also discuss: • The difference between sportsbooks and exchanges • Why algorithmic and corporate trading are restricted in many states • How broker partnerships could expand access • What “high-quality liquidity” really means • How Sporttrade plans to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Sporttrade #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #DCM #DCO 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Challenges with regulators 7:00 - On handle taxes 12:00 - What makes Sporttrade different? 15:00 - CFTC and DCM applications vs State license 25:45 - Potential new customers if granted DMC license 28:40 - How are you improving the status quo? 32:00 - Quality of liquidity 37:40 - Benefits of broker partnerships 40:45 - Market needs for traders in the PM industry

    48 min

  4. 11 FEB

    Kalshi Trader Gaeten Dugas on Culture Markets, Politics & Insider Trading | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk. Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts, Rotten Tomatoes, Taylor Swift, and Super Bowl halftime props. He breaks down how prediction markets help remove emotion from political analysis and why “skin in the game” produces better forecasts than traditional punditry. The conversation also tackles one of the biggest issues facing prediction markets today: insider trading and data leaks. Gaeten shares firsthand experiences with suspicious Spotify market movements, explains how traders protect themselves from leaked data, and reacts to Kalshi’s newly announced insider trading safeguards and integrity tools. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Getting into culture markets 3:00- Approach to trading 4:00 - Will PM traders get mainstream coverage 6:20 - What markets he is monitoring 9:40 - Requesting markets 10:30 Guarding insider trading 12:40 - Deciphering insider trading 14:00 - Markets he avoids 15:30 - When the price is right 17:00 Feeling secure with markets 20:30 How should Kalshi handle insider trading 21:20 - Using polymarket 22:10 - on Crypto 23:15 - Balancing the markets   #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #InsiderTrading #CultureMarkets #PoliticalPrediction #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #EventContracts #MarketIntegrity #SpotifyCharts #TaylorSwiftMarkets #CFTC #TradingPsychology

    26 min

  5. 28 ENE

    Richard Hanania on Prediction Markets, White Nationalism & the Midterms | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher is joined by political commentator and writer Richard Hanania for an in-depth conversation on prediction markets, Republican Party realignment, and the road to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election. Richard shares his personal history with prediction markets, from trading on PredictIt to being a named plaintiff in PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC. The discussion explores why prediction markets remain one of the most powerful tools for forecasting political outcomes, holding commentators accountable, and cutting through media narratives. The conversation then turns to politics, where Richard explains his break from both white nationalist movements and the MAGA coalition, offering a candid analysis of how fringe ideologies have moved closer to the Republican mainstream. Chris and Richard examine the influence of figures like Nick Fuentes, the online far-right, and how these groups could impact Republican turnout and candidate selection in the 2026 midterms.

    45 min

  6. 17/12/2025

    Building the Next Generation of Prediction Markets with Gigi Alcaraz | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Gigi Alcaraz, Founder of Mira, to explore how social-first trading platforms could reshape the future of prediction markets. Gigi breaks down Mira’s vision, why social markets and community-driven trading are becoming essential, and the biggest challenges facing prediction markets today. She also shares her personal journey — from finding her place in the prediction market ecosystem to participating in Kalshi’s builder program. The conversation wraps with a forward-looking discussion on how prediction markets can evolve, the role of consumer brands, and what builders need to get right to unlock mainstream adoption. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #SocialTrading #Fintech #Kalshi #TradingPlatforms

    28 min

  7. 03/12/2025

    Henry Lau on Skywalk's Growth, Market Integrity & Polymarket's Comeback | Prediction Market Movers

    On this week’s edition of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Henry Lau, Founder of Skywalk, for an in-depth discussion on the rapidly evolving prediction market industry. Chris and Henry break down Skywalk’s mission, their strategy for scaling the platform, and how builders can thrive amid shifting regulations and increasing competition. The conversation then shifts to Polymarket’s U.S. comeback, what the relaunch means for the market, and if Polymarket can compete against Kalshi. To close out the episode, the two explore market integrity, emerging challenges for entrepreneurs in the space, and the broader future of prediction markets as crypto-native and regulated platforms converge. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    38 min

  8. 27/11/2025

    Andrew Kim on Kalshi Cases, Sports Contracts & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    The two dive into the recent Kalshi case developments, how states could define swaps and the CFTC’s involvement in the prediction market landscape. Plus, the two also explore responsible trading, the explosion of crypto and prediction markets, and project what the court's will decide in Kalshi cases.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    44 min
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Información

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

Ficha técnica

  • Creado por
    Prediction News
  • Años en activo
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodios
    21
  • Clasificación
    Apto
  • Derechos de autor
    © Prediction News
  • Sitio web del podcast
    Prediction Market Movers
  • Proveedor

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