FICC Focus Bloomberg Intelligence

Credit markets had a strong nine months of rally, particularly in spreads, although there were yield blips. As the environment changes with rate cuts, led by the ECB, are credit spreads too tight, despite low defaults? Is the rally justified on expected rate cuts for the rest of 2024? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Axel Potthof, Head of High Yield at Fisch Asset Management, discuss the state of credit after the first ECB cut and the long rally.

They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. They also address CLOs and their support for loans, while on private credit, they ask if it is taking anything away from public markets.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matthew Tym, Head of Equity Derivatives Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Discussion includes the US presidential election and impact of yield enhancement using options on index volatility.

The Bank of Canada's 25-bp June rate cut and statement bolster the view that dollar bears tired of waiting for the Fed could retain the loonie-bear view until a more-dovish US move unfolds, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the BoC and Fed near-term dynamics and currency implications.
Canada's more-advanced economic cycle vs. the US justifies the early policy action from the BoC and validates the yield-driven loonie bearish case against the US dollar, euro and sterling. Given the Canadian-US dollar proxy qualities, these views will most likely hold when euro-dollar and/or sterling-dollar bulls return.

“You’ve come off a period of 15-plus years of a zero interest-rate policy that has allowed politicians to believe that you can spend money at no cost,” says Patrick McMahon, co-founder and CIO of MKP Capital Management, “And we continue to do that, but now in a tremendously different interest-rate environment.” In this podcast, McMahon is joined by podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman. The trio discuss the state of the US economy and potential paths forward for monetary policy. They also dive into shifts in global economic conditions and the likelihood of interest-rate correlations breaking down as monetary-policy cycles begin to diverge.

Higher-for-longer rates, along with elevated municipal-bond issuance, may signal that attractive entry points for muni investors are here for a bit longer. Though reinvestment season is typically a slower time for new issuance, this is an election year, which may mean issuers will want to avoid the uncertainties that come with every election season. Fund flows and rich ratios are concerns, but the asset class’s ability to provide low-risk, tax-exempt income remains a key feature, especially if inflation pressures increase. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on the May edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Nisha Patel from Parametric. In this month’s episode, we discuss the market outlook for the second half of the year and how technology overlays are driving Parametric’s strategies to help maximize returns.

NAV finance has been at the forefront of innovation in private credit markets, seeing tremendous growth since the start of the pandemic, when private equity funds began turning to alternative sources of funding. Pierre-Antoine de Selancy, co-founder and managing partner at 17Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on Credit Crunch to walk through how he's seen the evolution of the space. The conversation touches on the importance of fund-manager track records, use of proceeds, 17Capital's partnership with Oaktree, and a variety of other topics. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.