Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

5 MARS

Oil Surges After U.S.–Israel Strike on Iran | Strait of Hormuz Risk & Fertilizer Spike

Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting. Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports. StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for: • Crude oil prices and global energy flows • Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions • Fertilizer supply risks (urea, ammonia, phosphate) • The spike in Gulf urea prices • Soy oil rally and rising biofuel demand • EPA biofuel RVO developments • U.S.–China trade tensions and Xi–Trump negotiations With fertilizer production concentrated in the Middle East and energy markets on edge, agriculture and commodity markets are tightly linked to unfolding geopolitical developments. Arlan also examines: • How long military disruptions could last • The risk of an Iranian power vacuum • Why China stands to lose if Iran’s regime changes • Whether higher crude prices could accelerate U.S. biofuel policy If you trade or follow crude oil, grains, fertilizers, biofuels, or global macro markets, this is a critical update from the StoneX trading floor. Subscribe for ongoing commodity market analysis from StoneX. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

14 min

5 FÉVR.

Major Chinese Policy Shift: What it Means for U.S. Exports

Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy? In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed. In this episode, Arlan covers: Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans China’s newly released “Number One Document” and a surprising shift away from self‑sufficiency messaging Why Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper — and how that complicates U.S. export potential What a forced Chinese purchase would mean for global basis levels Biofuel policy expectations and the impact on U.S. crush demand Why Arlan remains skeptical — but why the possibility still matters Stay informed on developments that could reshape U.S. export opportunities and global grain flows. Like & Subscribe for continued updates as the situation evolves. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

14 min

3 FÉVR.

45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuels Market: Big Shifts for Soy Oil, CI Scores & UCO Imports

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs. What’s inside: 45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029) North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters) Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025 ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CI Credit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed) Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operations Market implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supported Next shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review) Like & Subscribe for real‑time market updates from the trading floor. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? #StoneX #Biofuels #45Z #Soybeans #Biodiesel #RenewableDiesel #CarbonIntensity #GREET #EPA #RVO #UsedCookingOil #ILUC

14 min

29 JANV.

Massive Shake‑Up in China’s Military: Impact on Soybeans, Trade & Markets

In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations. Arlan explores: China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to President Xi are being removedSigns of cracks in Xi Jinping’s power base and how that increases geopolitical riskHow instability in China affects soybean shipments, biofuel demand, and global crushersThe status of U.S.–China trade talks following meetings at DavosWhy rare earth minerals and new Canada–China agreements may fuel fresh trade tensionsThe outlook for Brazilian and Argentine crops and competitiveness against U.S. soybeansHow Taiwan remains a key flash point and why China likely stays quiet for nowWith China’s military shaken and global markets watching closely, Arlan explains why the current climate may actually support U.S. soybean shipments in the near term — and what to watch next. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? Like & Subscribe to receive Arlan’s weekly updates from the trading floor.

13 min

21 JANV.

Greenland Fears Ease, Soybean Export Risks Rise

President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities. In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down: Why Greenland matters strategically and why invasion fears were overblownHow easing geopolitical tension is impacting financial and commodity marketsChina’s reported purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeansWhy soybean export risks remain skewed to the downsideWhat upcoming EPA biofuel guidance could mean for the soybean complexWith Brazilian supplies entering the global market and China likely finished buying U.S. soybeans for now, Arlan explains what needs to happen for USDA export targets to be met—and where the risks lie. Stay informed with real-time market insights directly from the trading floor. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

9 min

16 JANV.

Rare Earth Leverage, Venezuela Moves & Farm Aid Uncertainty | Market Risks to Watch

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how rare earth mineral supply chains, geopolitical strategy, and upcoming farm aid negotiations are influencing market sentiment. Arlan explains new White House findings on U.S. dependence on foreign processing, China’s rare earth export restrictions, and why Venezuela’s mineral resources add another layer to global leverage. He also highlights the latest developments on the $11.1B in farm aid, budget negotiations, and potential shutdown risk ahead of January 30. Topics: • Rare earth supply risk & China’s dominance • Venezuela’s role in mineral access • National security implications • Farm aid timelines & political dynamics • What traders and producers should watch 🔔 Subscribe for daily updates from the StoneX trading floor. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

12 min

13 JANV.

Political Pressure & Credit Market Headlines: What Commodities Are Watching

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how policy decisions, credit-market dynamics, and rising geopolitical tension are shaping commodity markets as the week begins. Coming to you from the trading floor, Arlan discusses renewed calls to cap consumer borrowing rates, why lower credit-card interest may stimulate spending in the short term but increase long‑term economic risk, and how markets tend to respond to government involvement in financial systems. Arlan then shifts to the global stage, examining whether the United States may be applying strategic economic pressure on China, drawing historical parallels to Cold War–era policy, military spending, and long‑term geopolitical competition. He explores how demographic trends, debt growth, and slowing investment could factor into future market dynamics. In this update: • Credit markets and consumer behavior • Short‑term stimulus vs. long‑term economic risk • Geopolitical strategy and historical parallels • China’s economic pressure points and global implications • Why outside markets matter more for commodities Stay informed with daily insight from StoneX. Subscribe for commodity market updates from the trading floor Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

12 min

5 JANV.

Will Venezuela Shake Global Markets? China’s Hidden Connection

The U.S. strike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro could have ripple effects far beyond Latin America. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains how China’s investments in Venezuela, the risk of troop deployment, and Taiwan’s flashpoint could reshape global trade and commodity markets. Key Insights: Venezuela’s oil reserves and U.S. sanctions China’s strategic foothold in South America Could Taiwan tensions escalate? Impact on crude oil, soybeans, and U.S.-China trade Stay ahead of market-moving events with expert analysis. Subscribe for more insights from the trading floor! Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? #Venezuela #China #Taiwan #CommodityMarkets #CrudeOil #Soybeans #ArlanSuderman #StoneX

10 min

30/12/2025

Taiwan Showdown: Crisis Averted or Commodity Market Risk Ahead?

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth look at the latest geopolitical developments and their impact on global commodity markets. Today’s discussion covers: China’s “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan—the most intense yet Why Taiwan remains the flashpoint that could derail U.S.–China trade deals Historical parallels with Russia–Ukraine and what they mean for future risks Key implications for grain, soybeans, and pork markets As we close out 2025, will tensions ease—or are we seeing signs of a bigger storm ahead? Arlan breaks down what traders and producers need to know heading into 2026. Subscribe for daily market insights. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? #Commodities #TaiwanCrisis #China #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #StoneX #ArlanSuderman #Geopolitics The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.

11 min

27/12/2025

Ukraine War Escalates | Black Sea Risks & USDA Export Trends

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth market update from the trading floor. As the war surrounding Ukraine intensifies and attacks on Odessa’s port infrastructure escalate, global commodity flows face growing risks. Arlan covers: Black Sea tensions and the risk to grain and soybean shipments How Russian strikes on Ukraine’s export terminals impact wheat and crude oil markets Holiday trading dynamics and why low-volume sessions can lead to erratic price moves USDA export sales data for corn, soybeans, wheat, and sorghum Outlook for Chinese soybean purchases, Brazil’s early harvest, and U.S. crush potential Corn export sales trends and implications for USDA targets Stay informed on the factors shaping commodity prices, from geopolitical tensions to seasonal trading trends. Subscribe for more StoneX market insights and expert analysis. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.

11 min

Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

Épisodes

Oil Surges After U.S.–Israel Strike on Iran | Strait of Hormuz Risk & Fertilizer Spike

Major Chinese Policy Shift: What it Means for U.S. Exports

45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuels Market: Big Shifts for Soy Oil, CI Scores & UCO Imports

Massive Shake‑Up in China’s Military: Impact on Soybeans, Trade & Markets

Greenland Fears Ease, Soybean Export Risks Rise

Rare Earth Leverage, Venezuela Moves & Farm Aid Uncertainty | Market Risks to Watch

Political Pressure & Credit Market Headlines: What Commodities Are Watching

Will Venezuela Shake Global Markets? China’s Hidden Connection

Taiwan Showdown: Crisis Averted or Commodity Market Risk Ahead?

Ukraine War Escalates | Black Sea Risks & USDA Export Trends

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