Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

Decoding Geopolitics
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Decoding Geopolitics is a podcast that tries to make sense of today's dangerous world by talking with real experts on international relations, strategy and security.

  1. 22 août

    The Professor Who Predicted the Iran War: This Is How America's Era Ends - And It’ll Only Get Worse | Robert Pape

    ➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ ➡️ Check out Professor Pape's newsletter:https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who spent the bulk of his career studying exactly the kind of wars that the United States is now waging against Iran, including why they usually fail and what they typically lead to - which makes him one of the most important people to listen to today. But this is about more than just that.He argues that this war isn't just a random blunder by a chaotic president, but instead, that it’s a result of deeper, systemic changes that were long playing underneath the surface without anyone noticing - from a military revolution that flipped the global balance of power to the end of the global dominance of the United States. He explains why the likely outcome is Iran emerging as the world's fourth great power, why China's lesson from this about Taiwan is exactly the opposite of what everyone thinks and why history will see the Iran war as the time when geopolitics fundamentally changed.

    The Professor Who Predicted the Iran War: This Is How America's Era Ends - And It’ll Only Get Worse | Robert Pape

  2. 15 août

    Ex-CIA Analyst: America Is Choosing to Self-Destruct. And It Will Only Get Worse

    ➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Julia Curlee, who spent 25 years in U.S. national security, including 20 years as a CIA analyst, serving at the National Security Council and briefing senior U.S. officials. She recently left government and is now speaking publicly about what she believes is happening inside the system she spent her career working in. The United States has spent decades building an extraordinary system for having the best possible intelligence and using that to make the best possible decisions which was always a big part of what made the U.S. as powerful as it is. But Julia thinks that this system is now breaking down and when that happens, even a superpower with enormous resources can become unable to recognize reality, anticipate the consequences of its own actions and can start to increasingly make self-destructive decisions.  She argues that this is what explains the Iran war and why the US failed so badly to achieve its goals but also a lot of other foreign policy decisions - and that this is about to get a lot worse and the United States is about to make a lot more potentially catastrophic decisions.

    Ex-CIA Analyst: America Is Choosing to Self-Destruct. And It Will Only Get Worse

  3. 8 août

    Ukraine's Top Drone Expert: This War Is Not What You Think - And The Reality Is Far Worse

    ➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1804519707 ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Illya Sekirin and in my view, one of the most unique conversations I’ve had on the podcast so far. Illya is Ukrainian-Canadian who in 2022 joined the Ukrainian military and served in the war, first in infantry and later as a drone pilot, operating drones in combat in countless operations and campaigns throughout the war. Through those experiences he came up with a lot of ideas on how to use drones in the most effective and innovative way possible many of which were adopted and this later brought him to the Ukrainian General Staff, where he ended up advising the Ukrainian top leadership on drone warfare. And most recently he wrote about those ideas in a book called Rise of the Machines. Illya has a unique and quite rare combination of several things: extensive experience on the ground in frontline combat, the perspective from the highest levels of command, knowledge of military strategy and highly analytical mind which results in a fascinating conversation - on what is it like to be a drone operator in the war today, how is the drone warfare actually organized on a tactical level, what are the actual tactics and strategies that are being used and how are they changing, what is that decides who ends up winning in drone warfare or what do Western and military experts fundamentally misunderstand about the war - and much more.

    Ukraine's Top Drone Expert: This War Is Not What You Think - And The Reality Is Far Worse

  4. 1 août

    Military Intel Officer: Russia Is Losing Crimea - And There's No Way Out

    ➡️ Watch the full ad-free interview on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Philip Ingram, a former high ranking officer in the British military intelligence. In his career, Philip has planned and executed countless operations around the globe and that’s why he’s the perfect person to talk about the recent changes in the war in Ukraine. We talk about Ukraine’s campaign of long-range strikes on targets in the Russian rear, from refineries to warehouses, about the campaign to cut off Crimea and about what are these operations really about - whether their desired effect is psychological or it’s about something else, how do strikes on a warehouse effect what’s happening on a frontline 1000 miles away and what’s the bigger Ukrainian plan and thinking about all this. And we talk about Russia’s growing problems - from the impact to the public morale or whether it will be forced to declare a mobilization in the fall - and much more.

    Military Intel Officer: Russia Is Losing Crimea - And There's No Way Out

  5. 25 juil.

    This Is What Happens if Russia Invades the Baltics - And America Refuses to Help

    ➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://dub.sh/Patreon-Ruben-Stewart ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Ruben Stewart, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the IISS, about a a single question: what would happen if Europe had to fight Russia tonight, as it is, entirely without the United States. It’s a question that is both an increasingly likely possibility given the continuous withdrawal of the United States from Europe - but that also almost no one has really seriously modelled so far.  And so we get into how deep Europe's hidden dependence on America actually runs, how much it would constrain Europe if it had to fight alone and what would that actually look like - from the satellites and intelligence that would leave it half-blind, to the fact that NATO’s leadership is by definition mostly made up of American officers. Into why Europe would be forced into a completely different way of fighting than what most European commanders and officials envision or whether it could overcome its own political disunity fast enough to actually put up a fight.

    This Is What Happens if Russia Invades the Baltics - And America Refuses to Help

  6. 18 juil.

    Thomas Eder: China Doesn't Need to Fight America. It’s Preparing for Its Collapse Instead

    ➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Buy your own Geopolitics of the Western Pacific Map Print: https://decoding-geopolitics-shop.fourthwall.com/ ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Thomas Eder, Research Fellow at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, about how China actually sees the world - and why Beijing is increasingly confident that America is a superpower in decline. We get into this worldview - that the East is rising as the West unravels, and that China is on the way to take the top spot the way the US once took it from the British Empire - and why this belief is now driving Chinese strategy. But we also dig into why China's own deep economic and demographic problems complicate that confidence - and why the conclusion Beijing seems to be drawing isn't to fight America, but to outwait it, using patience, pressure and incentives to win the contest, and even Taiwan, without a war.

    Thomas Eder: China Doesn't Need to Fight America. It’s Preparing for Its Collapse Instead

  7. 15 juil.

    Most Replayed Moment: Yale Historian on Why 2026 Is Eerily Similar to 1914

    ➡️ This is a clip from an interview with Odd Arne Westadt. You can access the entire interview ad-free on my Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/

  8. 11 juil.

    Eric Heginbotham: How China Could Take Taiwan Without Firing a Shot - And Why It Could Catastrophically Backfire

    ➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Buy your own Geopolitics of the Western Pacific Map Print: https://decoding-geopolitics-shop.fourthwall.com/ ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://decodinggeopolitics.substack.com/This is a conversation with Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at MIT's Security Studies Program, about a scenario that’s often sold as China’s safer, lower-risk alternative to an invasion of Taiwan - and one that’s also increasingly likely to happen. Eric and his colleagues ran a major war-gaming study on exactly this - what would a blockade actually look like and whether it would be successful.We get into why the war games suggest that an easy win is a dangerous illusion: how a blockade would be more likely to spiral into a full US-China war rather than remain controlled, why China may not actually be able to coerce Taiwan to a surrender, and what everyone misunderstands about what would it actually look like.

    Eric Heginbotham: How China Could Take Taiwan Without Firing a Shot - And Why It Could Catastrophically Backfire
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Decoding Geopolitics is a podcast that tries to make sense of today's dangerous world by talking with real experts on international relations, strategy and security.

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