RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media
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Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.  We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions. Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

  1. -12 H

    The 'Blue Owl' In The Private Credit Coal Mine

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly of The Wall Street Skinny to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl’s retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl’s publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl’s reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave’s ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better. Show Notes 1 big thing: Trump's huge tariff loss (Axios) Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors (FT) Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradeweb Strikes Deal With Kalshi (Bloomberg) Exclusive: Supreme Court tariff ruling makes over $175 billion in US revenue subject to refunds, Penn-Wharton estimates (Reuters) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    32 min

  2. -3 J

    The De-Dollarization Myth with Michael Kao

    Guy Adami interviews Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy), discussing the historic moves in gold and silver, the debate over fiat debasement versus speculative positioning, and why charts showing central bank gold eclipsing Treasury holdings can be misleading because much of the change is price appreciation rather than new buying. Kao argues true de-dollarization is unlikely due to the lack of a rival fiat ecosystem with comparable liquidity and deep bond markets, and says a shift from Treasuries to gold as a reserve anchor would imply economic austerity and slower global GDP growth. They explore how geopolitics (including post-Ukraine reserve seizure fears) and Trump-related tariff and deficit narratives have fueled gold, while Kao outlines a contrarian view that Trump 2.0 policies plus AI could be deflationary and potentially restore productivity-driven disinflationary growth similar to the late 1990s; he also critiques CBO debt projections for assuming low productivity growth. The conversation covers AI’s disruptive impact on industry moats and equity multiple compression versus immediate default risk, touches briefly on Japan’s bond market and the yen carry trade, and examines the “sanctity” of large AI CapEx plans and whether AI expands total addressable markets or mainly drives cost cutting. Kao highlights his thesis from his piece on AI electrification: U.S. electricity demand may accelerate sharply after decades of flat growth, creating an energy bottleneck that increases reliance on natural gas (given limits to coal and nuclear), amplified by data center buildouts and LNG exports. He explains his preference for natural gas mineral strategies that distribute cash flow over trading commodities or owning E&P equities due to capital allocation risks, and notes recent oil spikes have often faded since 2022. Show Notes AI, Electrification, and the Hidden Energy Bottleneck | Michael Kao The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    45 min

  3. -5 J

    Dave vs Goliath: How Fintech Challenges The Banking Establishment with Dave CEO Jason Wilk

    In this episode of The Risk Reversal Podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down the massive rotation rocking the tech sector. Why are investors dumping software darlings like Salesforce, Adobe, and Oracle while Apple hits new highs? The guys debate whether the "AI tailwind" has officially become a headwind for SaaS companies and if the massive infrastructure spend by Microsoft and Google will ever generate a real return. After the break, Dan sits down with Jason Wilk, Founder and CEO of Dave ($DAVE). Jason shares his incredible founder journey—from a professional golf aspirant to landing Mark Cuban as a lead investor who capped his salary at $30k. They discuss how Dave is using AI-driven underwriting to disrupt JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, slashing default rates from 20% to 1%, and the future of fintech in a high-rate environment. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    47 min

  4. 16 FÉVR.

    Why VCs Are Betting Billions on AI Labs That Have No Product

    Dan Nathan welcomes Michael Dempsey, partner at Compound VC, for an in-depth discussion on AI, crypto, and technological investing. Returning guest Dempsey shares his insights on historical and emerging trends in AI, highlighting the evolving landscape of AI commercialization, the increasing speed from research to market, and the shift from market cap expansion to destruction. The podcast also dives into Dempsey's venture capital strategies, discussing his firm's impressive portfolio, including companies like Runway and Wave, and their new public markets fund. The conversation later transitions to crypto, with guest Evan Karvounis sharing his journey and the significant potential he sees in the decentralized exchange, Hyper Liquid. Michael further elaborates on Bitcoin's potential as a store of value. The episode encapsulates a comprehensive overview of the bleeding-edge tech landscape and its promising future. After the break, Dan welcomes Evan Karvounis to the pod. Evan shares his view on Bitcoin's current branding issues linked to the Trump administration and the preference for gold among Eastern investors. The conversation then shifts to Ethereum and Solana, which Evan believes are significantly overvalued, explaining their past success through the 'casino chip thesis.' The focus then moves to Hyper Liquid, a decentralized exchange project Evan heavily invests in. He outlines its unique approach of building a product before a chain, its market potential, and recent impressive growth, particularly in traditional asset trading. The discussion concludes with Hyper Liquid's market positioning and revenue growth potential. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    1 h 30 min

  5. 13 FÉVR.

    100 Years of Solitude & Alphabet Bonds with The Wall Street Skinny

    Go Follow TWSS on Substack In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss significant market movements such as the volatility index breaching 20, the rolling over of bank stocks, and Walmart's rise to an all-time high. They also delve into sectors affected by AI disruption, including tech, software, and semiconductors. Special guests from The Wall Street Skinny, Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly, join to discuss Google's issuance of a 100-year bond denominated in Sterling, the ongoing Warner Brothers acquisition saga, and the long-term impact of AI on employment and various industries. The episode concludes by examining the potential market effects of these trends and the implications for retail and institutional investors. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    51 min
  6. Dan Ives: The $1 Trillion Buying Opportunity In Tech

    11 FÉVR.

    Dan Ives: The $1 Trillion Buying Opportunity In Tech

    Dan Nathan sits with Dan Ives, head of Technology Research at Wedbush. They delve into Q1 market earnings, guidance for 2026, and the implications on CapEx and stock market reactions. The discussion expands to OpenAI’s influence, disruptive technologies, and tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia. They also cover Ives’ diversified roles including his tech research, crypto investments, and his eponymous ETF. The conversation touches on AI’s impact on tech and software sectors, the rise of financial services utilizing AI, and the broader implications for future investments and market behavior. Show Notes He’s Wall Street’s Biggest Showman. Should You Trust Him? (Barron's) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    56 min

  7. 9 FÉVR.

    What We Learned From The Software Sell-off | He Said, She Said with The Wall Street Skinny

    Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Kristen Kelly and Jen Saarbach discuss the recent happenings in the stock market, with a focus on the significant shift in sentiment towards SaaS companies. They explore how AI investments and the ensuing financial implications are affecting market valuations. The conversation touches on several key areas, including Microsoft's fluctuating performance, the role of rising interest rates, and the broader impact on the credit markets, especially in private equity and private credit. Additionally, the panel discusses the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, questioning Bitcoin's role as digital gold and the structural issues within the crypto ecosystem. They also examine the intriguing financial strategies and market maneuvers of Elon Musk's companies, particularly the recent merger between SpaceX and xAI. The episode concludes with a look at potential market rotations into sectors like financials and energy, as well as the upcoming challenges posed by macroeconomic conditions and the new Federal Reserve chair. Article Mentioned Hedge Fund’s Bet on Liquidity Over Private Credit Is Paying Off (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    38 min

  8. 6 FÉVR.

    Jim Chanos: The Bears Are Out Of Hibernation

    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Jim Chanos, founder of Chanos and Co, to discuss a wide range of investment and market topics. They delve deep into Chanos' investment strategies, including his focus on short selling and hedging, as well as his views on the AI CapEx and its potential impacts on various industries. Jim also provides insights into specific companies like MicroStrategy and CoreWeave and highlights the implications of excessive reliance on subprime loans in companies like Carvana. The discussion expands to macroeconomic issues, such as the Chinese economy and its trade relationships with the U.S., and the speculative nature of current market conditions. The episode concludes with a look at retail investment behavior and the potential risks in the crypto market. Articles Referenced - Credit Market’s Reality Check Follows Decade of Loose Lending (Bloomberg) - The American and Chinese Economies Are Hurtling Toward a Messy Divorce (WSJ) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    1 h 10 min
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Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.  We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions. Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

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