Global Security Briefing RUSI

Following Iran’s attack on Israel, we consider the future of conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of an all-out regional war.
The recent strike on Israel by Iran and its allies has reignited fears of a wider regional war and speculation over what form it could take. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr H A Hellyer, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, and Dr Louise Kettle, RUSI Associate Fellow and Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to explore how – and to what extent – the Middle East is undergoing a political and security transformation that is being accelerated by the current round of regional violence and confrontation. What sort of regional power balance is likely to emerge from the current crisis? And what are the realistic prospects for a full-blown regional war?

This episode discusses the emergence of ‘counter-West’ groupings and how they fit within – and are seeking to shape – the wider global order.
In 2023 we ran a series of episodes focusing on the Russia–China relationship, the growing linkages to Iran and Venezuela and to North Korea's emergence as an international actor, as well as efforts to forge the BRICS association into a larger non-Western organisation.
While Western countries continue to stand behind the idea of a comprehensive, rules-based order built upon common norms, laws and institutions, these concepts are being contested by academics, politicians and public figures and are no longer accepted as automatically valid in large parts of the world.
Host Neil Melvin is joined by Simon Rynn, Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss what can be learnt from ongoing or latent conflicts that appear to pit Western actors and norms against challengers.

With Vladimir Putin claiming yet another victory in Russia’s recent national elections, we examine his tenure and what the future has in store.
While Putin’s election victory was always a certainty, such political exercises involving mass engagement efforts are complex and potentially risky operations for authoritarian leaders.
At the age of 71, and with a hold on power now lasting until at least 2030, how is Putin trying to justify his continued leadership? And how can a successor emerge in this stifling political environment? In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor David Lewis from the University of Exeter to answer these questions.

With the rise of China and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific to economic and geopolitical affairs, we look at the challenges faced by governments in Europe and North America.
A history of solidarity and common approaches to dealing with threats affecting allies across the Atlantic might lead to the assumption that a transatlantic strategy and its supporting institutions would naturally emerge with regards to China. Shared commitments to universal human rights and adherence to a rules-based global order should also drive a convergence of policies. However, a variety of national political and trade considerations drive Europeans and North Americans in somewhat different directions when dealing with China.
On this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Andrew Cainey, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, to discuss their latest research paper which tackles important questions such as: how much transatlantic cooperation on policy towards China is happening; why has it been difficult for allies on both sides of the Atlantic to agree on working together; and what do the differences between the Trump and Biden administrations’ approaches tell us about prospects for the future? This episode is brought to you as part of a RUSI project supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

As we mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we consider the implications of what has turned into a protracted conflict.
Russia has seized back the initiative in the war, due at least partly to ampler supplies of ammunition and drones. While Ukraine continues to achieve important tactical victories against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the land and air campaign is increasingly characterised by Russian pressure and territorial gains.
There are also growing doubts about the ability of the Euro-Atlantic community to adequately resource the war, with acute concern about the deadlocked debate in the US Congress over military support for Ukraine.
As we enter the third year of the war, it is likely the fighting will stretch well into the future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Programme Director at the think tank Ukrainian Prism, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Ukrainian think tank the Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine. Where is the war heading? And can Western unity on Ukraine hold?

The Global Security Briefing takes a forward look at how this conflict is shaping the region.
Before the 7th of October, when Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, the Middle East appeared to have largely fallen off the list of priorities for Western policymakers. After decades of intense – and often unsuccessful and politically unpopular – involvement in the Middle East, Western governments were glad to pay less attention to the region.But the Middle East is now back to the top of the agenda for governments in London, Washington and other European capitals.
There are long-term strategic challenges to think about: finding a way forward in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme; Iran’s proliferation of missiles and drones across the region; as well as cultivation of proxy forces. And as always, the critical task is the development of a more sustainable and stable regional order.
In this edition of the Global Security Briefing, Neil is joined by Dr Tobias Borck from RUSI and Dr Julie Norman from University College London to look at how Israel’s war in Gaza is evolving and where the risks of wider regional escalation stand now.