Hardpoints

VALOR Media Network

Every week, former fighter pilots and current entrepreneurs Neal Rickner & Mike Smith provide unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in startups, energy, and national security.

  1. 1 hr ago

    West Point Fired Its Only Climate Scientist

    West Point just fired the only climate scientist on its faculty. Seventeen years of uniformly outstanding reviews, tenure, a grant to research weather systems for troop protection, and Dr. Adam Kalkstein still lost his job this spring after refusing an order to scrub human causes of climate change from his curriculum. Mike and Neal dig into the lawsuit, the meeting where a two-star general reportedly stormed out of the room, and what it says about where the service academies are headed. This one goes beyond a single professor. Mike and Neal unpack why climate change might be the single largest threat multiplier facing national security right now, driving crop failures, water scarcity, and the kind of mass migration that destabilizes governments from Syria to the Sahel. Neal draws on his own time landing in the Pacific and watching entire islands disappear underwater. Mike pulls from a paper he wrote on climate and national security years before this became a live political fight. The question underneath all of it: if young officers aren't allowed to learn the full picture, how are they supposed to make good decisions when the stakes are highest? From there the conversation turns to what actually makes a good warfighter. Is it push ups, or is it the ability to think critically with incomplete information and decentralized authority, the very thing that's supposedly made the US military different from centralized command structures like Russia's or Germany's? Neal brings in his own experience on the ground in Ramadi, where junior enlisted leaders were making real battlefield calls with the kind of context that only comes from real education. Mike makes the case that hollowing out the officer corps' capacity to think strategically is its own long-term national security risk, separate from anything about ideology. As someone building a carbon accounting company, Mike has a direct stake in how seriously institutions treat climate data, and that shows up in how bluntly he pushes back on the idea that this is a fair fight between two equally valid opinions. Neal takes the opposite lane, arguing the better fix for bad ideas is always more speech, not censorship, even when the speech in question is bad faith. The mailbag gets loud this week. Two listeners weigh in on the Abraham Lincoln deployment story from a previous episode, arguing sailors going overboard is just something that happens. Mike and Neal, both combat veterans, aren't having it, and make the case that dismissing anyone's breaking point, whether it's a ten month deployment without a port call or thirteen months on a mountainside in Kandahar, is exactly the wrong lesson to take from military service. Goods, Bads, and Others this week: Mike's Orioles are creeping back toward a wild card spot, the Potsdam Institute confirms global warming has nearly doubled its pace over the last decade, and the new US-Venezuela oil deal raises real questions about propping up an unelected government for the sake of energy access. Neal covers a DOE loan to shore up Puerto Rico's grid, steep new Colorado River cuts hitting Arizona hardest, and Iceland's surprise vote against reopening EU accession talks. Got a question or a take? Send it to hardpoints.show@gmail.com and you might hear it on the next episode.

  2. 2 days ago

    The Army Killed Its Drone School While Ordering Every Division to Buy Them. So Who's Actually Learning How to Fight?

    Mike and Neal open episode 63 with a contradiction that should worry anyone paying attention to how the Pentagon actually works: the Army stood up a unit in January with one job—fly to Kyiv, learn how Ukraine actually fights a drone war, and bring the lessons home. Eight months later, that unit—the Unmanned Assault Battalion under the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Vicenza, Italy—is being folded back into a standard airborne infantry battalion. At the same time, Secretary Hegseth is ordering every Army division to field a thousand drones and canceling the 42-ton M10 Booker to help pay for it, while pushing to replace crewed attack helicopters with drone swarms. Mike and Neal spend the episode asking how both things can be true at once. Mike lays out the case bluntly: this is not a resourcing problem, it's a leadership failure. The two generals who championed the drone unit and personally met with Ukrainian commanders have both since been pushed out. Mike compares it to how the Navy handled a similar crisis during Vietnam, when a small group of junior officers built Top Gun out of a trailer and rewrote air-to-air combat doctrine. His point: if the Army needs the airborne battalion back on its core mission, fine—but pull the fifteen best people out first and stand up a real center of excellence. Nobody is doing that. Neal pushes back with a founder's read on the situation, drawing on his own experience running Airloom, an emerging energy company navigating fast-moving hardware cycles. He agrees the money side is smart: canceling a vehicle nobody wanted to fund a capability everybody needs is good instinct. But speed without doctrine is how you end up with expensive hardware and no idea how to fight with it, and Ukraine is proving that lesson gets rewritten daily, not annually. The two go deep on why doctrine matters as much as the hardware itself, using the Marine Corps' MAGTF model as the throughline: assets only work together because units train together and share doctrine, not because the equipment showed up on time. Neal draws on his own year as a forward air controller in an infantry battalion, where nobody had been trained to fly the three drones they were issued, and all three were destroyed before ever reaching Iraq. That personal detail becomes the strongest argument in the episode for why handing drones to units without dedicated, trained operators is a recipe for wasted equipment and worse outcomes. The conversation also digs into the harder tradeoff nobody in the Pentagon seems to be resolving yet—whether attack helicopters can really be replaced by cheap drone swarms—with Neal defending the sheer massed firepower a helicopter brings to a ground fight in a way no drone currently matches. They also touch on the industrial side of this shift, referencing the Replicator initiative and the reality that the US is still only on track to produce a fraction of the drones it will eventually need, and that flexible, modular platforms—not the flashiest single drone—are what actually win production races. Goods, Bads, and Others this week: Mike's good is a weekend with his nephew and in-laws; his bad is West Point firing its only climate scientist for stating basic climate science; and his other is the USS Abraham Lincoln finally getting a port call after a brutal deployment, landing in Pattaya, Thailand, which Mike does not expect to end quietly. Neal's good is a federal judge blocking an attempt to restrict mail-in voting through the Postal Service; his bad is a reported push to strip the USS Doris Miller name from a carrier still under construction; and his other is the catastrophic glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border, with the death toll climbing past five hundred and still rising. Got a question or a take on today's show? Send it to hardpoints.show@gmail.com and we might feature it on a future episode. Follow Hardpoints wherever you listen, and share it with someone who needs to hear both sides of this argument.

  3. 27 Aug

    The Bill Comes Due: America Just Hit $40 Trillion, and the Pentagon Is Picking Up the Tab

    America just crossed $40 trillion in national debt for the first time in history—and the number that should really worry you isn't the debt itself. It's what's already more expensive than the entire military. Last year, the US spent $882 billion just on interest payments—more than the $874 billion spent on total national defense. In this episode, former F/A-18 pilots turned energy and climate-tech founders Mike and Neal break down what's actually driving the $40 trillion milestone: debt held by the public just passed 100% of GDP for the first time since WWII, and CBO projects annual deficits roughly doubling by 2036. They walk through the real difference between debt and deficits, unpack why mandatory spending—Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid—now eats up the majority of the federal budget, and explain why "cutting government spending" really means fighting over a shrinking discretionary slice that's already split with defense. Mike makes the case that defense spending has outpaced inflation for his entire adult life, yet the US now fields the smallest Navy and Air Force it's had in generations: more money going in, less capability coming out. The conversation moves through Moody's credit downgrade and what it signals about America's fiscal credibility, the privilege (and limits) of the dollar's reserve-currency status, and a real disagreement between Mike and Neal about whether the US can grow, tax, or cut its way out of the hole—or whether the political will to do any of it even exists. Plus: a reader mailbag on the USS Abraham Lincoln episode and the nuclear power debate, a controversial Army reenlistment incentive tied to the GTA VI release date, and a Chinese humanoid robot that just broke Usain Bolt's 100-meter world record. Hardpoints is brought to you by the Valor Media Network. Questions or comments? Email hardpoints.show@gmail.com.

  4. 20 Aug

    The Navy Kept a Carrier at Sea for 260 Days. Trump Says That Wasn't Long Enough.

    The USS Abraham Lincoln left San Diego last November for a routine six-month deployment. It has now been at sea more than 260 days with no return date, sailors have reportedly tried to go overboard, and Senator Blumenthal's letter to Navy leadership says the ship has gone more than 200 days without a single port call. Asked about it this week, President Trump said the deployment wasn't nearly long enough. Mike, who flew F/A-18s off carriers for the Navy, walks through what that actually means day to day: flight deck crews working fourteen-to-sixteen-hour shifts in 110-degree heat, hauling thousand-pound bombs by hand, in one of the most dangerous working environments on the planet. Below deck, sailors running the engineering spaces climb ten flights of stairs just for a few minutes of fresh air, and most never see daylight for months at a time. Mike doesn't hedge on the comparison: sailors on the Lincoln are working harder, in worse conditions, than the president criticizing them ever has in his life. Neal pushes the conversation toward the strategic question underneath the human one. The military can surge, but surging for what? With the Gerald Ford having just finished a similarly grueling 326-day deployment last year, and GAO reporting that only about 4 of the Navy's 11 carriers are reliably deployable at any given time, this isn't a one-off emergency—it's a pattern. And if the fleet and its people are being burned down responding to wars of choice, Neal's question lands hard: what happens when a real emergency shows up and there's nothing left in reserve? The two find real disagreement over where the failure actually sits. Mike aims his anger at senior military leadership—admirals who won't say no to unsustainable orders because their careers depend on saying yes. Neal reframes it as an incentive structure that goes back generations, from body counts in Vietnam to endless surges in Afghanistan, where nobody in uniform is rewarded for telling a civilian boss the mission as designed can't be done. Both agree the deeper rot goes back decades: optimal manning cuts, the LCS acquisition disaster, and a shipbuilding budget that's doubled in twenty years while the fleet has shrunk. Goods, bads, and others: Mike finally finishes his backyard patio project and calls out a broader failure of long-term national strategy—from shipbuilding to AI to renewable energy—while also flagging new partnership interest at Aclymate. Neal celebrates a big new contract for Heirloom, is frustrated by the administration blocking billions in grid modernization grants, and shares a genuinely inspiring afternoon watching teenagers use AI to build real apps and books through the Dragon Kim Foundation. Plus reader mail on the show's value and a sharp bit of irony about the airport named for the man who fired the air traffic controllers. Got a take? Email us: hardpoints.show@gmail.com Follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts.

  5. 18 Aug

    America's Nuclear Reactor Made Zero Watts of Power. Welcome to the Golden Era?

    On June 4th, a reactor at Idaho National Lab hit something called "zero power criticality"—energy in equaled energy out. The plant won't produce a single usable watt until at least 2027, yet the Department of Energy is calling this the start of nuclear's golden era. At the same time, that same DOE is blocking wind farm permits that could be generating power right now. Mike and Neal spend the episode separating the real technology from the press release. Fusion—the "limitless energy" version everyone gets excited about—has been ten to twenty years away for the last thirty years, and this test doesn't change that math. Fission is the one that actually exists, but the new reactor designs the administration is betting on need uranium enriched well beyond what current regulation and fuel supply chains support—the same enrichment thresholds that turned Iran into a decades-long international crisis. Every nuclear project ever built has come in over cost and behind schedule, and somehow the industry still doesn't publish the one number that would tell you if it's worth it: levelized cost of electricity. Mike makes the case—backed by his grandfather's decades in the nuclear program going back to the Manhattan Project—that the economics simply favor renewables now: batteries and solar get cheaper the more you deploy them, while nuclear and gas get more expensive the more fuel they burn. Neal, who runs the wind company Airloom, pushes back on how much of this is really strategy versus picking favorites, and flags that Vestas just posted 60-plus percent sales growth, mostly overseas, while the US share of the global wind market keeps shrinking. Goods, bads, and others: the world deployed 112 gigawatts of batteries in 2025, ten times the pace of four years ago—unambiguously good news for anyone who wants gas turbines to lose. Lake Mead just hit its lowest water level ever recorded, and the states that rely on it are still stalling. On the other side, General Dynamics landed a $76 billion contract to keep Virginia- and Columbia-class submarine production moving after years of delay. Neal's got a 162-year-old bottle of Guinness pulled from a shipwreck that people are now trying to recreate, a warning for Trump to stay out of FIFA's business, and an IAEA operation removing nuclear material from a clandestine site in Syria that's equal parts relief and "wait, how long has that been there?" Got a take? Email us: hardpoints.show@gmail.com Follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts.

  6. 13 Aug

    You Are Not the President: What Tuesday's DCA Incident Actually Tells Regular Flyers About Their Safety

    A missed radio call at Reagan National this week put the president's helicopter in a near miss with a commercial jet. Nobody died. Nobody even remembers it happened by Thursday. Mike and Neal use that as the doorway into a bigger question: is the airspace tens of thousands of Americans fly through every day actually safe, and does it have the margin it's supposed to have? The mechanics get real fast. DCA sits inside the most complex Class Bravo airspace in the country, crammed next to military routes, the Pentagon, and a runway approach that's seconds, not minutes, from some of the most sensitive airspace in America. Mike walks through the Swiss cheese model of safety: disaster only happens when every single safeguard fails at once. In March, they all lined up at LaGuardia, when an Air Canada Express jet collided with a fire truck on the runway and killed both pilots. The country is short somewhere between 2,000 and 3,500 certified air traffic controllers depending on whose numbers you believe, and Mike argues the government's revised, lower shortage estimate doesn't match what he's hearing from an air traffic controller in his own family. Neal and Mike dig into why voice-based air traffic control, largely unchanged since the mid-20th century, still governs a system flying far more airplanes than it did decades ago, and make the case for digital handoffs and heads-up-display-style warnings as an overdue fix. They land on a hard question: does anything actually change until the death toll gets high enough that Americans stop shrugging it off? Founder and operator angle: Neal riffs on why the eVTOL air-taxi boom and drone delivery announcements like DoorDash's new FAA approval look flashy in a demo but fall apart on unit economics once you run the numbers, a pattern he sees repeating across hyped hardware categories. They also cover Elon Musk's ketamine use and the double standard around military drug and grooming rules, prompted by a reader mailbag question about the Panama Canal and Middle East influence. Goods, bads, and others: Mike's excited for Acclimate's sustainability conference in Winter Park this September, disappointed the Orioles didn't make a deadline move and traded away catcher Adley Rutschman, and watching the record-strength El Niño building in the Pacific with real concern for how it'll shape winter snowpack and 2027 temperatures. Neal's happy Arrowhead Stadium got its name back in Kansas City, alarmed that 80% of key US missile interceptors were reportedly spent during the Iran war, and skeptical DoorDash's new drone delivery approval will pencil out economically.

  7. 6 Aug

    Nine Carriers vs. None: Why China Builds Ships 230 Times Faster Than We Do — And Who's Actually Fixing It

    China's naval intelligence assessment puts Beijing's shipbuilding capacity at 230 times America's. They already have 370 warships to America's 287, climbing to 475 by 2035. America is projected to hit roughly 317. The Navy's own cost review confirms the newest Ford-class carrier is running 18 to 26 months late. And a company that didn't exist three years ago just got valued at ten billion dollars building warships in a cornfield in Louisiana. Mike and Neal open on how America got here: decades of treating industrial capacity as something to outsource while China spent twenty years making maritime industry a national priority. From there, they get into the real fight—whether the Navy's fixation on eleven supercarriers is even the right math. Mike makes the case for fewer supercarriers and hundreds more smaller, distributed ships, pointing to the roughly one hundred carriers, mostly light and escort carriers, that the US fielded by the end of World War II. Neal pushes on what a blue-water Navy actually requires, and whether America's industrial base can support either vision. The founder-and-operator angle comes through Saronic, the Austin-based shipbuilder that just raised a nearly two-billion-dollar Series D to build outside the legacy prime contractors, in Franklin, Louisiana. Mike and Neal use it to dig into the real lever here: contract structure. They walk through why cost-plus contracting incentivizes expensive, slow-moving builds, why the SpaceX comparison only partly holds, and Mike's blunter proposal—fixed-price contracts with real financial consequences for missed deadlines, or nationalize the yards outright. Goods, bads, and others: Mike celebrates a four-day backpacking trip with his kids in Colorado's Flat Tops, flags a slow sales month as the cost of being an early-stage CEO, and connects the war in Ukraine to a proxy fight between fossil fuels and renewables. Neal marks China dropping below fifty percent coal-generated electricity for the first time, vents about a speed-trap ticket, and raises the eyebrow-worthy detail that AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic found ways out of supposedly isolated red-team test environments. Got a take? Email us: hardpoints.show@gmail.com Follow Hardpoints wherever you get your podcasts.

  8. 4 Aug

    Oil Executives Cashed Out $400 Million Since the Iran War Began. Who Picks Up the Tab?

    Oil and gas executives have sold nearly $400 million of their own company stock since the Iran war started. The ConocoPhillips CEO alone sold $80 million in two separate transactions in March. Another executive sold just over $11 million one day before his company's stock hit an all-time high. Crude jumped from $65 a barrel before the war to over $100 as the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply, closed and reopened and closed again. Mike and Neal break down what these sales actually signal. Executives sit on more information than anyone else in the market, and dumping shares at the peak is a tell, not just portfolio rebalancing. The two walk through how CEO pay shifted toward stock and options starting in the nineties to align incentives with company value, and why cashing out that equity while still running the company undercuts the entire point of the arrangement. Mike argues executives shouldn't be able to sell at all until they leave the company. Neal isn't ready to go that far but agrees the optics are bad. The debate that follows is about risk versus reward. Democrats are pushing a windfall tax on war profits with zero Republican support. Mike uses the Texas ERCOT electricity market as a counterexample, where the chance of a huge payout during a crunch drives real investment in resilience. The through line: reward should track risk, and oil majors that have been around for decades aren't exactly taking on new risk to earn this windfall. Mike floats a different idea, a national security tax tied specifically to oil price spikes caused by conflict, arguing that if the military is footing the bill to keep shipping lanes open, the companies profiting from that protection should help fund it. Neal ties it back to building Heirloom, where he thinks constantly about how equity incentives are supposed to work, and the gap between that theory and what oil executives just did with their own shares. Goods, bads, and others: Mike highlights a push to hold drone and strike operators legally accountable for unlawful killings, and calls out the tariffs on Canada over wildfire smoke as a betrayal of an ally that showed up for American wildfires. Neal defends the Blue Angels pilot who buzzed a crowd low and fast, Mike disagrees hard, and both flag the mounting off-balance-sheet debt behind the AI data center buildout as a risk worth watching closely. Got a take? Email us: hardpoints.show@gmail.com

About

Every week, former fighter pilots and current entrepreneurs Neal Rickner & Mike Smith provide unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in startups, energy, and national security.