This quarter’s CEOBarometer captures a sharp shift in the UK tech landscape, as three powerful forces converge: rising geopolitical uncertainty, a rapid repricing of software driven by AI disruption, and tightening dynamics in private capital markets. While headline growth expectations remain modestly positive, sentiment has deteriorated, sales cycles are lengthening again, and confidence across boards, investors, and buyers is becoming more fragile. Against this backdrop, we explore what’s being described as a “SaaSpocalypse” – not as the end of software, but as a fundamental reset in how value, defensibility, and competitive advantage are assessed in an AI-native world. We examine the growing disconnect between market sentiment and underlying business realities, the implications for valuations and deal activity, and why software transactions are likely to slow significantly as investors reassess risk and long-term strategy. The episode also unpacks the evolving role of private credit and its indirect impact on UK tech, alongside a detailed view on growth expectations, capital markets, private equity, venture activity, and M&A trends. Throughout, the focus is on what this moment demands from leadership teams: a far more rigorous, CEO-led approach to AI strategy, tighter alignment with investors, and a clear-eyed view of where sustainable value will be created as the market moves into a more selective and unforgiving phase. Timings and topics covered 00:00 - Market Reset: The “Three Horsemen” - Geopolitics, AI-driven software disruption, and private capital dynamics combine to weaken sentiment and reshape the outlook for UK tech. 07:19 - AI, Software & the “SaaS Apocalypse”- What’s really happening behind the AI hype, why software valuations are resetting, and how investor behaviour is shifting. 22:07 - Capital & Strategy Implications - Private debt, leverage, and funding dynamics — plus what boards must do now, with AI strategy becoming a CEO-level priority. 39:15 - Growth & Capital Markets - Updated growth expectations, continued weakness in IPOs and fund-raising, and ongoing de-equitisation trends. 48:30 - Deal Activity: PE, VC & M&A - Bifurcation in private equity, resurgence in AI-led venture funding, and diverging trends across software and ICT services M&A.
