In the Company of Mavericks

Jeremy McKeown

Conversations with people who dare to be different

  1. 6 DAYS AGO

    Seven Tankers and the 10% Rally: Oil, the Fed Crisis, and the AI CapEx Engine - The Gap Between the Strait & the Tape

    Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020? Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together. In this episode: – Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits now Three things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160. A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day. For deeper analysis between episodes, subscribe to Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes. Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

    18 min
  2. 1 MAY

    Beer is the best lubricant mankind has found in 7,000 years with Jonathan Neame & How Brtiain's oldest brewer has survived by bloodymindedness and 450 years of adaptation

    Shepherd Neame has been brewing beer on the same site in Faversham, Kent, since 1573. That's before Shakespeare. Before the King James Bible. Before anyone called a pub a pub. It has survived two World Wars, the Temperance Movement, the craft beer revolution, a very public family falling-out, and a pandemic that shut down every pub in Britain overnight. Jonathan Neame is the fifth-generation CEO, a qualified barrister, a former management consultant, and a man who once swore he would never work for his father. He changed his mind. In this conversation, Jeremy McKeown talks to Jonathan about family governance and succession, the economics of the British pub, why three pubs are closing every day in the UK right now, and what the government could do tomorrow to stop it. They also get into the craft beer revolution, the bifurcation between London and rural pub markets, and what it means to run a nearly 500-year-old business on a site where James Watt installed his second-ever steam engine in 1789. Jonathan's answer to why Shepherd Neame has survived while almost everyone else hasn't: they're not in the alcohol business. They're in the socialising business. Beer is just the best lubricant mankind has come up with in 7,000 years. Guest: Jonathan Neame, CEO, Shepherd Neame Sponsored by: Progressive Equity & Finance Talking

    39 min
  3. 24 APR

    Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble with Le Shrub and Laurence Hulse: The Odd Couple of Memes and Micro-Caps

    Brought to you by Progressive Equity and Finance Talking. Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble Episode Summary: Dive into the absurdities of modern macro markets and the hidden value in UK equities in this episode of Mavericks. Host Jeremy McKeown brings together an investing "odd couple": Laurie Hulse, UK small-cap stock picker and manager of the Onward Opportunities Investment Trust, and The Shrub, a world-renowned meme trader, parody hedge fund manager, and macro commentator. Together, they explore how to navigate market volatility and uncover wealth-building strategies by blending bottom-up micro-cap stock picking with top-down macro analysis. In This Episode, We Cover: The Reality of Public Markets vs Private Equity: Laurie reflects on the 3-year anniversary of Onward Opportunities, its graduation from AIM to the LSE primary listing, and the brutal, honest "mark-to-market" nature of public markets. The guests contrast this with the "deferred reckoning" of private markets, discussing the potential market impact of massive private valuations and the looming SpaceX IPO.The "Golden Age of Grift" & Market Absurdity: The Shrub explains his philosophy that "once you realise it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense". He breaks down why global markets ignore geopolitical crises—joking that as long as the S&P is above its 200-day moving average, even an asteroid strike is "priced in". He introduces the concept of "Schrödinger's Strait", where vital global shipping lanes are treated by the market as both open and closed simultaneously.The Capital Cycle & The UK Discount: Discover why a decade-long slump in UK equities might be the perfect setup for massive returns. The Shrub outlines the "capital cycle," explaining that the longer an asset is ignored, the more explosive its eventual upcycle will be. They discuss "Klaus," the imaginary European pension fund manager, and why trillions in capital reshoring to Europe could trigger a massive rally for UK and European assets.Gems Among the Rubble: Laurie shares real-world case studies of finding heavily discounted global businesses listed in the UK, including the highly successful acquisition of marine data business Windward and the podcasting platform Audioboom.Exit Liquidity & Survival Strategies: The Mavericks discuss why investors must plan their exits before they buy, whether through takeovers, US dual-listings, or graduating to larger markets, especially when dealing with illiquid small-cap stocks. Listen to the end for actionable takeaways on building portfolio resilience and surviving the "clown show" of modern markets. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The ideas discussed may not align with your personal risk appetite. Please do your own research and take responsibility for your wealth decisions. Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to Jeremy’s Substack, Hyperormal Times, for non-obvious insights into how the world really works and the investment implications the financial press often misses.

    45 min
  4. 16 APR

    Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire: Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, zero cost intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity

    Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, the death of cheap intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity Ami Daniel, founder of maritime AI company Windward, returns to the pod with a front-row view of the Middle East energy shock — and a confession about the one big thing he got completely wrong about AI. With US naval pressure tightening around Iranian ports and ships going dark in the Strait of Hormuz, Ami explains why this energy crisis has no quick fix: 20% of the world's oil and gas cannot simply be rerouted. He maps the geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East, why Israeli and UAE capital markets are telling a different story to the headlines, and why the Abraham Accord alliance may become the defining axis of the region for the next two decades. Then the conversation shifts to AI and investing. Ami's big admission: he thought data would be commoditised and insight would be scarce. He had it exactly backwards. Insight is now effectively free — you can get PhD-level analysis on an API. Data is the scarce resource. That one inversion is eating the entire SaaS industry alive. But Ami argues the SaaS collapse is a buying opportunity for patient investors — if you know what to look for. Proprietary data moats. High average order values. Strong net revenue retention. And it's also a good idea to look for wartime CEOs who have navigated real adversity before the good times arrived. We also get into Windward's own journey — why leaving the London Stock Exchange wasn't a vote against the UK market, why he's now backing a company to list there, and what it means to steer a business through years of people thinking you're wrong. Five takeaways: The Middle East energy shock is structural — there is no easy fixThe region is being geopolitically reshaped, and capital markets are repricing itDefensible data moats are the new scarce resource in an AI worldThe SaaS collapse is a patient investor's opportunityBack wartime CEOs — people who kept going when nobody believed in them Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Links mentioned in this episode: Windward insights: https://insights.windward.aiAmi Daniel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidanielWindward on X: @WindwardAIAmi Daniel on X: @AmidanielOneOrlando Bravo / Thoma Bravo—software is a buying opportunity (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/tech-investor-orlando-bravo-software-ai.htmlBen Horowitz — Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO: https://a16z.com/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/Previous episode with Ami (September 2024): https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown/p-148564789HyperNormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com

    33 min
  5. 8 APR

    The Iranian Toll Booth: A HyperNormalTimes Report on What the War Actually Changed

    The Iranian Toll Booth: A HyperNormal Situation Report Operation Epic Fury is over, we are told. The bombs landed. The headlines can move on. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz has become a checkpoint run by the IRGC — with US allies quietly filing the paperwork to get through. This is your HyperNormal situation report. In this solo ITCOM episode, Jeremy McKeown cuts through the noise to explain what the US-Israeli campaign against Iran actually achieved, what it failed to achieve, and what the aftermath reveals about the real state of Western power in 2026. French diplomats negotiating with Iranian middlemen. Greek shipping companies submitting cargo manifests to IRGC checkpoints. Japan is in back channels with Tehran. America's closest allies are paying the toll — not because they want to, but because they cannot afford the alternative. That's not a military failure. It's something more consequential: it's normalisation. Jeremy covers: Why the Iranian Toll Booth is more consequential than a blockadeThe Western "clown show" responseWhat the death of the petrodollar looks likeWhy this is the Suez Moment that nobody's calling a Suez MomentWhere to position capital when the old maps stop working Drawing on recent conversations with Doomberg, David Murrin, John Polomny, Charlie Garcia, and Michael Every — this is the episode for investors who want to understand the world as it is, not as the press conference says it is. The liturgy continues. The faith is gone. Stay sharp. In The Company of Mavericks | HyperNormalTimes with Jeremy McKeown Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

    11 min
  6. 3 APR

    A Letter from Brezhnev with John Polomny - Why the West Knows the System Is Broken But Can’t Say So: It's HyperNormal

    ITCOM is a podcast that helps serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and uncover new ways to confidently grow your wealth in radically uncertain times. John Polomny didn't go to Georgetown. He didn't intern under a former Secretary of State. He joined the US Navy at 18, ran nuclear reactors, travelled the world on warships, opened a brokerage account at 15, suffered a 90% drawdown, and eventually became one of the most-followed independent macro investors on the internet. Today, he runs Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack — covering geopolitics, resource investing, and the slow-motion unravelling of the Western-led world order.  In this conversation, John and Jeremy discover they've independently arrived at the same framework to describe the world we're living in: hypernormalisation — the condition in which nobody believes the system anymore, but no one dares say so out loud.  It forms the basis of Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.    Topics covered in this episode: How a working-class kid from rural South Florida built a lawn business at 14, joined the nuclear Navy, and became a self-taught value investorThe 90% drawdown that changed everything — and what Charlie Munger, Howard Marks and Warren Buffett taught him about compoundingWhy John thinks we are already in World War Three — and what Leonid Brezhnev has to do with itThe Strait of Hormuz, the petrodollar, Saudi Arabia's patience, and the slow death of the post-1973 energy orderOil sands investing: why Suncor, CNR and the Canadian oil majors were among the most undervalued assets in the world The "Don Monroe Doctrine" — why the US is quietly retreating to the Western Hemisphere and what that means for EuropeFrontier markets: Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Africa — and why John thinks a 22-year-old with ambition should be booking a flight, not polishing a CVWhy Argentina's Milei experiment matters more than most might realiseVaclav Smil's EROI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) framework — and what medieval peasants can teach us about the energy transition The line that sums up John Polomny:"I don't want to get too radical here." He then does. Every time. That's the point. Follow John's work at Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack and YouTube. Keywords/tags: macro investing, geopolitics, oil investing, energy investing, value investing, Substack investing, self-made investor, US Navy, oil sands, Suncor, frontier markets, Argentina, Milei, Strait of Hormuz, WWIII, petrodollar, empire decline, hypernormalization, contrarian investing, independent investor, podcast Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

    50 min
  7. 24 MAR

    Five Stages of Empire, WWIII & Surviving Hegemonic Power Shifts with David Murrin

    In The Company of Mavericks | David Murrin on World War III, The Five Stages of Empire, and Surviving the Global Power Shift Host: Jeremy McKeown Guest: David Murrin (Geopolitical Forecaster and Author) Release Date: March 26th, 2026. Join host Jeremy McKeown on In the Company of Mavericks for a riveting conversation with geopolitical expert David Murrin. Discover why Murrin believes World War III has already begun, the inevitable clash between a declining America and an ascending China, and how understanding historical cycles like the "Five Stages of Empire" and the "K-Wave" can help us survive the turbulent decade ahead. Episode Overview: In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, host Jeremy McKeown sits down with David Murrin, the renowned geopolitical forecaster, author of Breaking the Code of History, and founder of Global Forecaster. Known for his uncanny ability to predict global shifts by studying human behaviour and historical patterns, Murrin delivers a stark and urgent assessment of the world in 2026. Murrin applies his unique behavioural models—including Isaac Asimov-inspired "psychohistory" and Kondratiev waves—to dissect the current global crises. From the ongoing proxy conflicts draining Western military resources to the looming technological singularity, this episode explores the mathematical certainty of empire cycles and what Western democracies must do to adapt and survive. Key Topics Covered: World War III is Already Here: Murrin explains his controversial thesis that WW3 officially began with the invasion of Ukraine. He outlines the immediate military triggers and "pilot wars" that signal China’s imminent, kinetic move against the US and its allies in the Pacific.The Iranian Bear Trap: A deep dive into how the United States is currently entangled in an asymmetric war of attrition in the Middle East. Murrin discusses how Iran's use of cheap drones and mines is depleting US mid-course interceptors, creating a strategic opening for China's hegemonic challenge.The Five Stages of Empire & American Decline: Murrin breaks down his Five Phase Life Cycle model (Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and Decline/Legacy). He discusses why the US is firmly in the terminal decline stage, characterised by debt reliance and linear bureaucracy, while China is in the aggressive ascension stage.Linear vs. Lateral Leadership: Why are Western nations suffering from a plague of idiots in leadership? Murrin explains the symbiotic relationship between linear thinkers (who maintain the status quo) and lateral or dyslexic strategic thinkers (who drive adaptation and survive high-entropy events). He argues that elevating lateral thinkers is critical to surviving the current geopolitical crisis.The K-Wave Commodity Cycle & Resource Scarcity: An analysis of the Kondratiev commodity cycle, which Murrin predicts will peak between 2025 and 2030. Learn how the simultaneous implosion of the debt-fueled Doomsday Bubble and soaring food and energy prices will reshape global survival strategies.The AI Singularity & The Future of Warfare: Murrin assesses the risk of an AI singularity, driven by the escalating global arms race. He explores how hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and quantum technologies are permanently altering the fundamental Theory of Warfare. David Murrin, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, Jeremy McKeown, Geopolitical Forecasting, World War III predictions, Five Stages of Empire, US decline, China hegemony, K-Wave commodity cycle, Iranian Bear Trap, Lateral vs. Linear thinking, Dyslexic Strategic Thinking, AI Singularity warfare. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

    52 min

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Conversations with people who dare to be different

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