Energy Markets Daily

EMD

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

  1. 1 day ago

    Geographic Feature: Belarus

    Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 fields, 194.5M tonnes recoverable, 531 wells planned 2026-2030; APG 219M m³ 2024. Refining dominance: Naftan/Mozyr 24M tonnes/yr capacity, 95-97% depth at Naftan. Record 2026 profitability: fuel exports to Russia surge (gasoline 25x first 7mo to 665k tonnes, diesel 7x to 418k tonnes, July record 212k gasoline/162k diesel rail). Russian refinery outages (Ukrainian drone strikes -25-30% capacity) create opportunity. Domestic sales 4.125M tonnes 2025. Gas import dependency 100% from Russia (~17B m³ 2025, down from higher levels via nuclear shift); periodic shortages, negotiating 2026+ terms. Nuclear: BelAES 17B kWh 2025, 40% electricity consumption, reducing gas reliance. Infrastructure: Druzhba pipeline carries Russian crude through Belarus to Europe (Hungary/Slovakia/Poland/Germany). Southern branch disrupted Jan-Apr 2026 (Ukrainian drone strikes Brody), resumed April 23; Hungary/Slovakia blocked EU 20th sanctions until resumed. Russia halted Kazakh transit northern branch May 1, 2026 (technical reasons), reducing volumes. Oct 2026: Gomeltransneft/Polotsktransneft merged into one Gomel entity improving efficiency. Sanctions: EU 20th (Apr 2026) asset freezes/LNG restrictions/export-import bans/transit prohibitions; EU 21st (Jul 2026) targeted energy/finance/military, designated Mozyr refinery. UK exemption Druzhba through Oct 14, 2027. Hungary/Slovakia political leverage over pipeline delays EU sanctions. Economic: sanctions increase Russia dependence. Druzhba revenues decline (southern 9.25-9.7M tons 2025, further 2026). Transit income ~€35-50M/yr potential. GDP growth slowed 2025-early 2026. Rail exports oil/petrochemicals 50% above 2025 pace. Belarus: Europe's refinery for Russia, marginal producer, 100% energy import-dependent, geopolitical hostage.

  2. 3 days ago

    Geopolitical Premium Persists

    Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93.66. Strong early Sep momentum low-to-mid $80s late Aug to low-to-mid $90s. 1-2%+ daily gains volatility. 52-week ~$55-$119 currently upper third. +48-50% YoY from ~$62. Drivers: US-Iran conflict heightened (tanker strikes, Iranian Strait statements), supply disruption risks Middle East, ~10% prior week rally. Technical: near/testing $95 WTI/$100 Brent resistance, potential upside sustained geopolitical, ascending triangles noted. INVENTORY (EIA Aug 28 Released Sep 2): Commercial crude 424.5M down 4.5 (~1% above avg); SPR 286.6M down 3.1 sharply YoY; total US crude ~711.1M down ~7.6; gasoline 205.7M down 1.2 (6% below avg); distillates 104.2M up 0.8 (14% below avg); Cushing ~22.5M up ~0.1; total commercial down 3.0 total stocks ~1,528.9M; refinery inputs 17.5M bpd up 102-103k (97-98% capacity near-multi-year highs); imports 4-week avg ~6.7M bpd up ~2% YoY; product supplied 4-week total ~20.4M bpd down 4% YoY (gasoline ~8.9M bpd down 2% YoY, distillates ~3.7M bpd down 6% YoY); next report ~Sep 10 (week ending Sep 4-5 Labor Day delayed). NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub ~$2.90-$2.92/MMBtu. World Oil Monitor 2.923 Sep 8; Markets Insider ~$2.90 down ~2.49% range ~$2.86-$3.01; Investing.com Oct '26 ~$2.91 down ~2.15-2.45% intraday $2.864-$3.013. 52-week low ~$2.48-$2.52 high ~$7.46-$7.83. OPEC+ (Sep 6): Seven core members (Saudi/Russia/Iraq/Kuwait/Kazakhstan/Algeria/Oman) maintain Oct output at Sep 2026 levels (unchanged). Rationale: market conditions, Iran war export impact, 2027 prep. Follows 2023 cut rollback (Sep 188k bpd increase completed 1.65M bpd unwind); actual output well below targets (conflict constrained). Shift to 2027: reviewing capacity to set quotas, further hikes likely paused. Iran disruptions Strait Hormuz (recent US strikes, Iranian responses) mean quota changes limited real-world supply impact. Next: Oct 4. Brent spiked ~$96 recently (earlier peaks higher); volatility ongoing conflict, limited OPEC+ near-term physical influence. Broader 21-member cuts remain end-2026; core members constrained Iran conflict. Crude testing major resistance. OPEC+ pausing new hikes. Geopolitical premium persists.

  3. 4 days ago

    Technicals: Week 36

    Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 after earlier gains. Bullish structure above moving averages. Ascending channel since late August. Support levels: $92.47 (50% Fib critical), $91.00-$91.04 (100-hr/ST MA), $88.01/$86.40-$86.99 (38.2%/50% Fib/channel mid), $85.21-$85.96 (100-day SMA), $84.79/$82.26 (61.8% Fib). Resistance: $93.50 (immediate major ST resistance June highs), $92.67-$93.22 (near-term 1.618 Fib ext/channel top), $97.00 (June 3 swing high), $98.41-$98.48 (61.8%/78.6% Fib), $100+ (psychological/LT targets). Momentum: RSI 14 (60-70 bullish but overbought threshold), MACD (positive histogram expanding), Stochastic (overbought ~89 possible exhaustion/pullback). Pivot points daily: pivot ~$90.79, R1 ~$92.49-$92.86, R2 ~$94.24, R3 ~$96.31, S1 ~$89.41, S2 ~$87.34, S3 ~$85.96. Outlook: Bullish above key MAs/Fib supports; potential pullback $85-$88 before further gains; overbought signals consolidation risk. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS. Henry Hub trading near $2.97-$2.98/MMBtu. Price action Sep 7 close $2.976-$2.98. Consolidating tight range. Bullish if support holds; resistance capping upside. Support: $2.87-$2.89 (major near-term 50-day EMA ~$2.88 SuperTrend swing lows), $2.80-$2.82 (secondary 50% Fib), $2.90-$2.93 (dynamic rising trendlines), $2.77-$2.78 (deeper $2.70 targets if $2.87 breaks). Resistance: $3.00-$3.03 (primary psychological/technical double top/supply), $3.05-$3.08 (immediate extension), $3.12-$3.20 (next major $3.03 breakout 78.6% Fib), $3.28-$3.40 (LT resistance declining 200-day MA ~$3.28). Pivot daily: ~$2.96 pivot, ~$2.89-$2.91 supports, ~$3.01-$3.04 resistances. Projections: Bullish $3.14-$3.37 on $3.03 break; Bearish $2.70-$2.62 below $2.87. 52-week range: Low ~$2.48-$2.52, High ~$7.46-$7.83. YTD 2026: Down ~17.7% from ~$3.618 start. Summary: WTI testing $93.50 resistance with bullish structure above key MAs. Overbought RSI/Stochastic suggest near-term consolidation. Support at $92.47 (50% Fib), $91, deeper $86-$87. Upside targets $97-$100. Gas consolidating $2.97 with $3.00 psychological resistance. Support holds $2.87-$2.89 (50-day EMA). Breakout above $3.03 targets $3.20+. YTD down 17.7%.

  4. 4 Sept

    Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

    Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oil consumption ~65k b/d 2024 (large deficit entirely imports); production covers 1% needs. No domestic natural gas production reported/indicated. ELECTRICITY GENERATION: 2025 electricity 98.6% renewables (hydro/geothermal/wind/biomass/solar), verified ICE/DOCSE; thermal/fossil minimal. 2025/early 2026 hydro dominated ~70-75%+ generation, wind ~12%, geothermal ~11%, biomass/solar rest; low-carbon ~98% rolling 12-month mid-2026. Installed capacity end-2025 ~3,659 MW led hydro (~2,342 MW), wind (~437 MW), thermal/backup (~531 MW), geothermal (~263 MW), small biomass/solar shares. OVERALL ENERGY SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION: 2024 baseline oil/products ~55% total supply; renewables (hydro/solar/wind/other/biofuels/waste) balance. Final consumption oil products ~67%, reflecting heavy transport use despite clean electricity. 2026 economic higher oil prices moderate GDP ~3.6% (IMF); headwind alongside factors. RENEWABLE OUTLOOK AND CAPACITY: Plans add ~600 MW new geothermal/solar/wind by 2030 (ICE/private generators) maintain high renewable shares. Fossil thermal plants mainly strategic backup; share electricity ~2% or less high-renewable periods. Imports 100% finished petroleum products; no domestic refining. REGIONAL AND SOLAR SPECIFICS: Costa Rica stands out regionally near-100% renewable electricity vs. higher fossil neighboring countries. Solar 2025 only ~0.27-0.28% electricity (~36.6 GWh total generation), 15.5 MW installed capacity. National demand ~13 TWh 2025; system supports regional exports while maintaining high domestic coverage (~97% demand met renewably). Clean energy leader. Lessons for the world.

  5. 3 Sept

    Geographic Feature: Yemen

    Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th globally. Natural gas reserves ~478.55 BCM (~16.9-17 TCF), ranking ~33rd globally (~0.22% world total), sufficient for >500 years at current rates. PRODUCTION: Oil production 2024-25 averaged ~19k-22k bpd (IMF/EII), down sharply from ~439k bpd early 2000s, ~50k+ bpd 2024 some trackers. IMF baseline ~19k bpd 2025 rising ~19.5k 2026, 20k 2027; other estimates current domestic-focused ~20k bpd or lower (7-10k bpd S&P Global recent years). Export resumption government aims ~60k bpd upon restart (~40k bpd export potential after ~20k domestic/refinery); stockpiles exceed 1.7M bbl. Gas production/consumption extremely low ~10.38 MCM 2024 (unchanged YoY), fully matched domestic consumption; primarily associated gas, minimal standalone, no imports/exports. Domestic distribution Yemen Gas ongoing truck-based provinces (hundreds trailers monthly Aden/Taiz/Hadramout mid-2026), limited local supply reliance. UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES: USGS mean estimates ~261M bbl oil, 4.5 TCF gas, ~122M bbl NGLs across key basins (Sab'atayn, Say'un-Masila, Jiza-Qamar). HISTORICAL AND OUTLOOK: Production peaked ~450k bpd ~2002; sharp drops since 2015 (war, infrastructure attacks, export terminal closures). Main production/reserves Sab'atayn (Marib), Say'un-Masila (Masila/Hadramout), Shabwa; mature province declining fields. LNG/gas infrastructure limited; Yemen LNG noted but minimal amid conflict. Economic context IMF 2026 oil production factors low GDP growth (~0.5% or negative conflict scenarios); revenues critical but hampered. Security/outlook exports/production ramp (potentially +25%) depend stability; Houthi issues/conflict continue disrupt. Wood Mackenzie describes Yemen mature war-affected province shut-ins since 2015, limited IOC activity. Global comparisons oil reserves ~0.17% world total; gas production ranks ~90th. Conflict-ravaged reserves. Time to watch carefully.

  6. 2 Sept

    Middle East Tensions

    Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Change: plus 0.1754 percent. September 1, 2026 futures (front month/Oct contract): Settlement around $90.22-$90.68 USD (various sources including MarketWatch, WSJ, Trading Economics); intraday gains noted amid market moves. September 1, 2026 spot/futures close: approximately $89.37-$89.44 USD. August 31, 2026: Spot/futures around $85.43-$85.76 USD. August 25-28, 2026 range: Spot prices approximately $82.23-$83.90 USD. FRED/EIA WTI Cushing spot (latest available as of searches): Up to Aug 25, 2026 at $83.90 USD (daily series lags; next update expected around Sep 2). Weekly/monthly benchmarks: Earlier July–Aug 2026 WTI around $80-$85+ USD, with volatility. NATURAL GAS UPDATE. September 2, 2026: Not yet available in public sources (EIA daily spot prices typically released with short lag; next scheduled release September 2). Monthly Henry Hub spot price (YCharts/EIA): July 2026 = $2.963/MMBtu (down 7.57 percent from June; next monthly release September 2). Natural gas futures (Investing.com/CME, front month): September 1, 2026 close approximately $2.89 (range $2.86-$2.92). Daily Henry Hub spot price (YCharts/EIA): August 25, 2026 = $2.70 (down from $2.83 prior day; next daily release September 2). Monthly Henry Hub Gulf Coast spot (YCharts/EIA): June 2026 = $3.15 (latest available monthly). FRED/EIA monthly series (MHHNGSP): July 2026 = $2.89. EIA daily spot/futures tables: Latest reported daily Henry Hub spots in late August 2026 around $2.6-$2.9 range. CME daily bulletin (settlements as of Aug 31, 2026): Nearby Henry Hub futures (e.g., Oct 2026) around $2.935. GEOPOLITICAL: RENEWED US-IRAN HOSTILITIES (EARLY SEPTEMBER 2026). Oil prices rise on supply disruption fears: Brent crude gained ~0.6-2.4 percent (to ~$91-92.66/bbl) and WTI ~1-2.9 percent (to ~$86-88/bbl) on Tuesday (Sept 1) after first direct US-Iran attacks in a month on Sunday and US President Trump's threats of further strikes; markets erased prior-week losses amid Middle East tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses: Visible commodity vessels transiting strait fell to ~5 per day (vs. 10-day average of ~14), per Kpler data; waterway normally carries ~1/5 of global oil/LNG supplies; Iran closed it after earlier attacks, and mediation by Qatar/Oman has failed to reopen. Tankers struck in Hormuz: Two supertankers (including Saudi oil carriers) were hit by projectiles on Monday while exiting strait; UKMTO-reported tanker struck by three projectiles on Tuesday, highlighting ongoing shipping risks. Iranian crude exports stall for record period: No meaningful Iranian crude cargoes have transited Hormuz strait to China for ~7 weeks (since mid-July US blockade reinstatement), per Kpler/Vortexa/TankerTrackers data; August loadings estimated at 220k-255k bpd (down sharply from prior months); exports rely on depleting floating storage. US-Iran economic/military pressure intensifies: Trump threatened additional strikes; US signaled sanctions on Iran's trading partners and broader economic measures; Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled willingness to reciprocate if US returns to June interim peace deal. Broader Middle East supply and refining impacts: Conflict has damaged or constrained Gulf refineries and product exports (e.g., diesel/jet fuel); regional refinery runs fell sharply earlier in 2026; analysts note refined products shortages as key blind spot beyond crude. OPEC+ production adjustments amid disruptions: In early August, OPEC+ (key members including Saudi Arabia/Russia) agreed to further 188k bpd output hike for September to unwind prior cuts, though actual flows remain constrained by Hormuz issues and war; Gulf producers seeking alternative export routes (e.g., Iraq approvals). Partial recovery attempts and limits: Post-June MoU/ceasefire efforts saw some traffic rebound, but renewed strikes have reversed gains; shut-in Middle East production remains elevated, with full pre-war flows (~15-20+ mb/d through Hormuz) unlikely without sustained de-escalation. Iran's export challenges and sanctions context: Longstanding US sanctions (plus recent designations) compound blockade effects; Iran's "dark fleet" and China-focused sales face severe limits; exports have dropped dramatically from pre-war or earlier 2026 peaks. Market and analyst views: Prices reflect risk premium but limited follow-through buying suggests bets on contained (not total) disruption; situation remains fluid, with potential for further volatility tied to Hormuz access and diplomatic efforts. Capital preservation first. Do not short into active conflict.

  7. 1 Sept

    Technicals: Week 35

    Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorter timeframes showing rising momentum or sideways ~50-62. MACD12/26 positive/buy signals multiple sources (e.g., +0.65 or rising positive territory 4H); one daily +0.80 with mixed oscillators. Moving averages strong buy on daily timeframe (8-11 buy vs. fewer sells); shorter MAs 5/10-day often sell/mixed, 20/50/100/200-day mostly buy. Specific MAs approximate recent: MA5 ~86.0 sell/mixed, MA10 ~85.9 sell/mixed, MA20 ~85.2 buy, MA50 ~83.9 buy, MA100 ~82.8 buy, MA200 ~83.5-84.2 buy. Barchart Sep26 futures 5-day MA 85.10, 20-day 82.30, 50-day 78.63, 100-day 81.69, 200-day 72.46; 14-day RSI/stochastic 60-92 range (overbought shorter periods). Support levels key clusters ~82.67 (recent support/Bullish Engulfing), 80.00-80.53, 79.28-79.95 (61.8% Fib/50-day MA confluence), 78.42-78.95 (200-day MA zone), lower 76-73. Resistance levels key clusters ~85.09 (initial breakout target), 86.99 (key weekly resistance/Dark Cloud Cover), 87.30-90.46, higher 92-94+. Patterns symmetrical triangle consolidation (breakout potential by mid-September), prior rising wedge breakdown testing supports, Bear Flag on weekly chart targeting lower levels long-term. Oscillators daily mixed/neutral (e.g., Stochastic ~60-71 buy, CCI neutral, ADX mixed ~23-29); some sell on MACD momentum or oversold Stochastic RSI. LiteFinance Sep1 2026 forecast potential continuation higher; daily range ~78.42-89.72 (average ~84.07). Longer-term weekly view mixed signals with possible downside bias below 79.28 (Bear Flag target toward 51+ long-term); supports 75.19, 71.26 etc.; resistances 83.53, 86.99+. Pivot points classic pivot ~85.92; supports S1 ~85.46 / S2 ~84.94; resistances R1 ~86.44 / R2 ~86.90. Overall signal consensus recent daily moving averages strong buy; oscillators neutral-to-buy; summary often "buy" or "strong buy." Caveats signals can shift quickly with news (geopolitics, OPEC+); some sources note weakening momentum or consolidation risks into early September. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Price context trading in ~$2.70-$2.95 range amid storage surpluses and weather-driven volatility. Key Resistance Levels $2.912-$2.94 near-term/major resistance; 50-day MA area in several analyses; breakout target after recent moves above $2.85-$2.90. $2.99-$3.00 psychological and technical barrier; often cited as key upside test or cap. $3.06 next retracement/resistance zone target on stronger breakouts. ~$3.12 200-day EMA or moving average resistance (declining in some charts). Higher zones (less immediate) ~$3.20-$3.38 (prior swing highs or retracement areas from earlier 2026 trading). Key Support Levels $2.80-$2.90 (or tighter $2.87-$2.90 zone) high-volume congestion/support area; recent pivot and holding zone. ~$2.811-$2.816 SuperTrend or short-term technical support; potential retest level. $2.650-$2.67 near-term downside target on breaks. ~$2.616 cited technical floor/support for September futures. ~$2.576 major watched support; repeated defense noted in analyses. Lower targets (if broken) ~$2.50 or $2.30 (longer-term or extended downside zones). Additional context from recent charts/analyses Recent price action (late Aug 2026) showed breakouts above $2.85-$2.90 followed by tests near $2.99, with indecision in tight ranges. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day around $2.90-$2.95 range in spots, 200-day higher) often factor into these levels. Indicators like RSI/MACD often factor into these levels. Broader 2026 context includes supply glut keeping prices capped below $3 in many forecasts, with storage concerns weighing on upside. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 21, Released Aug 26, with revision dated Aug 28): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) 428.9 million barrels (week ending Aug 21), up +0.1 million barrels (+95,000 barrels) WoW from 428.8 million (Aug 14). Year-over-year comparison (commercial crude, excl. SPR) +10.6 million barrels (+2.5%) vs. 418.3 million barrels on Aug 22, 2025. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude 289.7 million barrels, down -3.7 million barrels WoW from 293.4 million (and down sharply YoY from 404.2 million). Total U.S. crude oil stocks (incl. SPR) 718.6 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW). Position vs. five-year average commercial crude inventories 1% above five-year average for time of year. Total petroleum stocks (incl. SPR) 1,535.1 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW; down -127.8 million YoY). Total motor gasoline inventories 206.8 million barrels (down -2.5 million WoW; 6% below five-year average). Distillate fuel oil inventories 103.4 million barrels (down -2.2 million WoW; ~14% below five-year average). U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day (97.4% of operable capacity). U.S. crude oil production estimate 13.8 million barrels per day (up slightly WoW). Additional c...

About

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.