Decision Desk HQ Podcast

Decision Desk HQ
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Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com

  1. 15 hr ago

    Episode 49: Senate Signals, with Jessica Taylor (Cook Political Report) & Miles Coleman (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

    Election Day is right around the corner, and control of the U.S. Senate appears to be the biggest question surrounding the 2026 midterms. In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats have about a 3 in 5 shot of capturing a majority, but need to flip a number of clearly red-leaning states to pull it off. To break down the Senate situation, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by two excellent elections experts: Jessica Taylor and J. Miles Coleman. Jessica is the Senate and Governors Editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Miles is Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The trio ran through all the key Senate races, where things stand, and discuss some potential surprises. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jessica Taylor on X: https://x.com/JessicaTaylor► J. Miles Coleman on X: https://x.com/JMilesColeman► The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: https://www.cookpolitical.com/► Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:04 Introducing Jessica, Miles, and Senate overview10:33 Kansas: More likely to flip than Iowa?14:50 South Carolina: What % will third-party candidates get?22:39 Michigan: Democrats’ Achilles heel?28:26 Maine: Can Collins outperform polls again?38:00 Alaska: Does ballot-stacking story hurt Peltola?42:14 Texas: Will Dallas-Forth Worth be key?46:47 Iowa: Is Hinson the strongest GOP candidate? 49:13 Ohio: Does Ramaswamy hurt Republican ticket?52:52 Conclusion: One other thing to watch in the Senate This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 49: Senate Signals, with Jessica Taylor (Cook Political Report) & Miles Coleman (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

  2. 5 days ago

    Forecast Update: Democrats favored to win House, Senate remains close

    DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. Democrats have close to a 4 in 5 shot of flipping the House. But the race to control the Senate is closer to a coin flip. We discussed a number of key races, including Senate contests in Kansas and New Hampshire, and House elections in Pennsylvania and Virginia. We plan to do at least one more update with Chris before the election, so keep an eye out for it! Subscribe to Decision Desk HQ’s Substack: ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s official Discord server: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro and how the forecast works02:32 Where the House and Senate forecasts stand09:47 New Hampshire Senate12:36 Idaho Senate16:01 Nebraska Senate17:44 Kansas Senate22:43 Kentucky’s 6th District31:00 Pennsylvania’s 10th District33:52 Pennsylvania’s 1st District36:14 How to measure incumbent strength41:58 Washington’s 3rd District45:23 Oregon governor49:11 What are the limitations of a forecast model?56:20 Virginia’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts1:03:04 Check out DDHQ’s VOTES Pro This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Forecast Update: Democrats favored to win House, Senate remains close

  3. 22 Oct

    Episode 48: Breaking Down the House, with Erin Covey (Cook Political Report) & Jacob Rubashkin (Inside Elections)

    Election Day is less than two weeks away! In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats have close to a 4 in 5 shot of capturing a U.S. House majority, with an average seat result of 236 for Democrats to 199 for Republicans — a 21-seat gain for Democrats from the GOP’s current 220-215 edge. But if Democrats are favored to capture the House, where exactly could they make gains?To dig into the House, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by two top-of-the-line experts: Erin Covey and Jacob Rubashkin! Erin is the House Editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Jacob is Deputy Editor of Inside Elections. They explored different types of races, including bellwether seats to watch early in the night, incumbents who surprisingly might survive, and some unexpectedly interesting — even strange — contests that have popped up late in the campaign season.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Erin Covey on X: https://x.com/ercovey► Jacob Rubashkin on X: https://x.com/JacobRubashkin► The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter: https://www.cookpolitical.com/► Inside Elections: https://insideelections.com/---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS00:00 Introducing Erin, Jacob, and the broad House picture07:57 Possible bellwether: Kentucky’s 6th District12:05 Possible bellwethers: Virginia and Florida districts19:01 Possible survivor: Rep. Don Davis (D) in NC-0124:05 Possible survivor: Vicente Gonzalez (D) in TX-3426:24 Unexpected survivor: Emanuel Cleaver (D) in MO-0127:55 Wait, what??: Wyoming’s At-Large District37:13 Unexpectedly in-play: New York’s 21st District42:04 Other possible surprises: Kansas’s 2nd District47:20 Other possible surprises: North Carolina’s 13th District49:28 Other possible surprises: Nevada’s 2nd District53:09 Fake polling and getting a read on races This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 48: Breaking Down the House, with Erin Covey (Cook Political Report) & Jacob Rubashkin (Inside Elections)

  4. 16 Oct

    Episode 47: Can Mary Peltola flip Alaska? Can Ashley Hinson hold Iowa?

    The midterms are almost two weeks away. With so many pivotal races on the board, the Decision Desk HQ Podcast chatted with two reporters about what’s happening in a pair of key states: Alaska and Iowa.In the first part of the episode, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley speaks with James Brooks, state political reporter for the Alaska Beacon. They dug into Alaska’s high-profile Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Rep. Mary Peltola, the leading Democrat, which will play a major role in deciding which party controls the Senate. They also chatted about Alaska’s under-discussed contest for governor, where former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins might be the first Democrat to win that office since 1998.In the second half, Geoffrey spoke with Brianne Pfannenstiel, the chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register. They looked at Iowa’s much-watched Senate election between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, which is practically a pure toss-up in DDHQ’s forecast. Then they examined Iowa’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand holds a lead and could become the first Democrat to win the governorship since 2006. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► James Brooks on X: https://x.com/AK_OK► Brianne Pfannenstiel on X: https://x.com/brianneDMR► Alaska Beacon: https://alaskabeacon.com► Des Moines Register: https://desmoinesregister.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS00:00 Intro to episode02:16 Introducing James Brooks and Alaska09:19 Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan a slight underdog?15:07 Peltola stories: Nice Mary vs. Moody Mary?22:16 Ranked-choice voting and the OTHER Dan Sullivan28:55 Alaska Governor: 1 Democrat vs. 3 Republican41:10 Introducing Brianne Pfannenstiel and Iowa49:55 Iowa Senate: Turek & Hinson position themselves1:00:32 Iowa Governor: Why Rob Sand is favored1:05:04 Zach Lahn, the unexpected GOP nominee1:10:51 Three competitive House races in Iowa This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 47: Can Mary Peltola flip Alaska? Can Ashley Hinson hold Iowa?

  5. 15 Oct

    Forecast Update: Is a blue wave rising or cresting?

    DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. Democrats now look more likely to capture the House, where they average a 235-200 majority across 1 million forecast simulations. But the battle for the Senate remains far more up in the air, as does a key gubernatorial race in Georgia. We’ll be doing a couple more weekly updates about the forecast with Chris ahead of the election, so keep an eye out for those episodes! Subscribe to Decision Desk HQ’s Substack: ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s official Discord server: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro and how the forecast works3:15 Where the House and Senate forecasts stand10:15 How many seats could each party win?17:00 Mississippi Senate23:02 Texas Governor31:28 Georgia Governor34:32 New York’s 17th District40:13 Chances that Democrats sweep Senate & House47:18 The perfect tool to watch the midterms This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Forecast Update: Is a blue wave rising or cresting?

  6. 8 Oct

    Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House

    DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The electoral environment has trended toward Democrats, which has helped make them clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the battle for the Senate. More broadly, Democrats now have just above a 1 in 2 chance of sweeping both chambers. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris from now and until the election, so watch for future chats! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com ---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro and overall forecast situation8:55 What if the polls are wrong?13:26 The perfect tool for Election Night17:02 Kansas Senate21:00 South Carolina Senate23:05 Arkansas Senate24:50 Florida Governor27:17 Texas Governor29:19 Texas Railroad Commissioner33:02 The forecast toplines This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House

  7. 2 Oct

    Episode 46: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio?

    With the midterms rapidly approaching, this episode of the Decision Desk HQ podcast features not one, but two, guests! In the first part, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley chats with Jeremy Pelzer, the chief politics reporter of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, about the state's highly competitive Senate and gubernatorial elections. Ohio is one of the key swing states Democrats need to flip to win back the Senate. Data centers have emerged as a key issue in this campaign, and outside spending has been high. In the second half, he talks with Michael Shepherd, the political editor at the Bangor Daily News. They take a deep dive into Maine's contentious Senate race, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing a tough national environment. Democrat Troy Jackson, the replacement for Graham Platner, is polling about even with Collins in what has become a must-win for both parties. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jeremy Pelzer on X: https://x.com/jpelzer► Michael Shepherd on X: https://x.com/mikeshepherdME► Bangor Daily News: https://bangordailynews.com► Cleveland Plain Dealer: https://cleveland.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS2:00: Introducing Jeremy Pelzer and Ohio's elections11:05 Jon Husted, Sherrod Brown, and data centers19:15 Outside spending21:07 Governor election34:35: Introducing Mike Shepherd and Maine's elections38:04 Can Susan Collins overperform again?54:16 Troy Jackson's record and campaign1:01:52 Governor race This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 46: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio?

  8. 25 Sept

    Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune

    Just two years after voting for President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, Texas has become an unexpected frontline swing state. The Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has drawn national attention, with polls and the DDHQ forecast both showing Talarico with a lead. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but this may be their best chance since 2018.In this podcast, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discusses the Texas Senate and gubernatorial elections with Gabby Birenbaum, Washington correspondent for The Texas Tribune.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Gabby Birenbaum on X: https://x.com/birenbomb► The Texas Tribune: https://www.texastribune.org---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:25 Introducing Gabby Birenbaum3:35 Latino voters and Texas in 202610:06 Talarico and suburban voters15:43 Paxton’s challenges18:42 Fundraising, spending, and polling24:10 Texas governor and the rise of Hinojosa29:48 Key issue: data centers35:07 Downballot consequences of these races37:28 What would a Talarico win mean? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune
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About

Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Decision Desk HQ
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    62
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Decision Desk HQ
  • Show Website
    Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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