Eventual

Eventual

Prediction Markets. Decoded.

  1. 2 days ago

    NFL Kickoff, Fed Hike, & Trump-a-Palooza | Jack Andrews, Anthony Dabbundo, & Jordan Weissmann

    Fall Ball is here. Trump-a-Palooza rolls into Day 2, NFL season markets are live, and Fed rate hike odds are moving again ahead of CPI. Alex Keeney and Domer open with the latest from Trump-a-Palooza, including what Trump’s convention messaging says about family, legacy, “communists,” “weirdos,” and the political tone heading into the midterms. They also discuss how Republican and Democratic messaging could matter for key midterm markets, including races involving candidates like Mike Rogers and Susan Collins. Then we go deep on the NFL season with Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, and Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer. After a low-scoring Wednesday night opener between the Seahawks and Patriots, the crew asks what bettors should actually be watching this season: NFL futures, player markets, team markets, MVP odds, Super Bowl paths, and whether political trading tactics can translate to sports betting. Topics include: NFL season betting previewSeahawks vs. RamsBills, Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks futuresJosh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson MVP marketsPlayer props vs. team marketsHow sports bettors size positionsWhether to get in early, fade overreactions, and avoid betting your own team Later, Jordan Weissmann joins to talk about the Federal Reserve, CPI, jobs reports, and whether traders should believe anything in the lead-up to a potential rate hike. With Fed hike markets active on Polymarket US and CPI forecasts in focus, the question is simple: what actually matters when every jobs and inflation forecast seems wrong? The show also covers: Fed rate hike odds in SeptemberFed rate hike odds in 2026August CPI expectationsJerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, and Jackson Hole communicationThe CME, jobs reports, and inflation forecastsWhether Fed markets are giving traders signal or noise Finally, Alex and Domer return for Oracle of the Week, featuring Jacob Fortinsky of Novig, A24, and whatever else survives the first week of Fall Ball. For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment:Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer:Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  2. 3 days ago

    Trump-a-Palooza, US Open & Kalshi SCOTUS Fight | Pascal's Matt Downey

    Trump-a-Palooza comes to Dallas, US Open markets heat up after Ben Shelton’s upset over Carlos Alcaraz, Kalshi’s legal fight moves closer to the Supreme Court, and Pascal co-founder Matt Downey explains his vision for the next generation of prediction-market trading. Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the latest prediction-market action across politics, sports, regulation, and trading technology. First: Republicans are gathering in Dallas for a highly unusual midterm convention built around President Donald Trump. The event is being billed as “Trump-a-Palooza,” putting Trump at the center of the fall midterms—whether candidates in tight races want him there or not. The show looks at what traders should watch in Trump speech markets, RNC convention mention markets, and the broader question of whether Trump is coming out of retirement as the main character of the midterm campaign. Then: the US Open. Ben Shelton stunned Carlos Alcaraz in a late-night quarterfinal thriller as two American men advanced deep into the tournament. Alex and Pratik examine US Open winner markets, the value of tennis longshots, possible home-court advantages for American players, and whether traders have consistently overpriced the tournament’s biggest favorites. Next: Kalshi goes to court. New Jersey has petitioned the Supreme Court to hear its dispute with Kalshi, bringing prediction markets closer to a potential legal showdown over event contracts and state gambling laws. With Polymarket traders pricing the odds that the Supreme Court accepts a prediction-market case this year, Pratik explains why those odds may be too high, why the apparent circuit split may be premature, and how CFTC rulemaking could produce a more complicated legal patchwork in 2027 and beyond. Finally, Pascal co-founder Matt Downey joins the show to discuss the company’s attempt to build a non-custodial prediction market designed specifically for serious traders. Downey explains how Pascal uses on-chain infrastructure and USDC collateral, why professional-grade order execution and market liquidity remain major challenges, and how his experience losing money on FTX shaped the platform’s design. The conversation also explores the future of human traders in an increasingly automated market. Downey argues that algorithms will eventually eliminate some of the speed advantages enjoyed by “click traders,” but that human judgment, specialized knowledge, qualitative research, and original models of how the world works will remain valuable. Plus: why prediction markets need high-frequency, mid-frequency, and discretionary traders operating together; what traditional finance can teach the industry; why liquidity begets liquidity; and what Pascal hopes to borrow from PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi, and the prediction-market platforms that came before it. Topics include: Trump-a-Palooza in DallasRNC midterm conventionTrump speech marketsWhat will Trump say at the convention?Trump and the 2026 midtermsRepublicans skipping the Dallas conventionMidterm campaign strategyMention marketsUS Open marketsBen Shelton and Frances TiafoeBen Shelton upsets Carlos AlcarazUS Open winner oddsAmerican tennis marketsTennis longshotsFavorite-longshot biasKalshi court casePrediction markets and SCOTUSNew Jersey petition to the Supreme CourtWrit of certiorariCircuit splitsEvent contracts and regulationKalshi vs. state regulatorsCFTC prediction-market rulesPolymarket and political marketsSports markets and prediction marketsPascal prediction marketMatt DowneyNon-custodial prediction marketsOn-chain tradingUSDC collateralProfessional prediction-market tradersAlgorithmic tradingHigh-frequency tradingClick tradersTrading infrastructureOrder books and liquidityPrediction-market automationHuman judgment vs. trading algorithmsFTX and counterparty riskPredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi Hosted by: Alex KeeneyPratik Chougule Featuring: Matt Downey, co-founder of Pascal For more prediction-market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safely and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is for users 18 and older only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and a 100% loss can occur. It is not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction-market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, political trading, sports markets, election odds, legal markets, trading technology, and probabilistic thinking. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  3. 4 days ago

    Midterms SZN & CPI | Patrick Ruffini

    Today on the show: election season is here, inflation may be back, Fed trades are getting messy, and Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to talk polling error, midterm markets, low-propensity voters, and whether summer Senate polls are giving traders the wrong signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start by getting into the head of the median voter: McDonald’s, Bud Light, Monster Energy, gas prices, data centers, and just enough ChatGPT to get through laundry day. Then: it’s Election SZN. Alex and Brian go long or short on the first wave of midterm markets, including Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Nebraska, Alaska, and the broader question of which races are already moving from “competitive” to “basically called” in trader discourse. The show also looks at Georgia, where new reporting has raised questions about Mike Collins’s campaign against Jon Ossoff. Is the Georgia Senate race already in “done chain” territory, or is that exactly the kind of early-cycle certainty that gets traders in trouble? Then: campaign-season awards. Alex and Brian talk about candidate narratives, strong and weak campaigns, partisan tides, House control, and whether some “great candidate” stories are about to run into the hard math of the midterms. Next: inflation. With core CPI due, oil nearing $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and Fed hike markets moving again, the guys break down what traders should watch in the August CPI report. Month-over-month vs. year-over-year inflation, headline vs. core, and small decimal-place differences may decide whether September becomes a real Fed hike debate. Plus: Nathan Fielder, Elizabeth Holmes, Oscar season, Harry and Meghan back in the UK, the GTA VI trailer, and why big cultural prediction markets are starting to feel like real macro instruments. Then Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to discuss whether recent Senate polls have systematically overstated Democrats, how far back the pattern goes, what role white non-college voters and low-propensity voters play in polling error, and whether the polling industry still deserves the benefit of the doubt heading into the midterms. The conversation also covers Trump’s role in midterm turnout, affordability and economic pressure, Texas polling, gerrymandering, House seat markets, polling variance, and whether “polls biased?” is a data story, a sociology story, or both. Finally: Pick of the Week — Iowa State/Iowa UNDER 40.5. Topics include:Election season beginsPrediction market trading in the midtermsGeorgia Senate marketJon Ossoff and Mike CollinsNorth Carolina Senate marketRoy CooperMaine Senate marketTroy JacksonNebraska Senate marketPete RickettsAlaska Senate marketMary PeltolaHouse control marketsSenate marketsCandidate narratives and partisan tidesPolling errorPolls biased toward Democrats?Patrick Ruffini on midterm pollingLow-propensity votersWhite non-college votersLatino voters and pollingTrump and midterm turnoutInflation report previewCore CPIMonth-over-month vs. year-over-year inflationFed hike in SeptemberFed hike in 2026Oil near $100Houthi attacks and energy pricesGas prices and the median voterData centers and voter sentimentNathan FielderElizabeth HolmesOscar seasonHarry and MeghanGTA VI trailerIowa State vs. Iowa UNDER 40.5 Guest:Patrick Ruffini Hosted by:Alex KeeneyBrian Golden For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment:Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer:Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, political trading, election odds, polling analysis, Fed markets, inflation trades, and probabilistic thinking. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  4. 2 Sept

    US Open, Todd Blanche, & Trump’s Legal Woes | Ankush Khardori

    Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that could shape the future of sports and political event contracts. First: Fed rates. Markets now show rising odds of a rate hike this year, with September in focus after Kevin Warsh’s speech flipped expectations. Alex looks at the September Fed decision market, dumb money on both sides of the trade, and why traders are split heading into the Sept. 15 meeting. Then: legal problems for prediction markets. Mick Bransfield’s reporting at Eventual explains why traders have been watching the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals for clues about Kalshi, Nevada, sports trading, and the future of event contracts. Are we still in the golden age of prediction market trading, or is the legal environment starting to tighten? The main segment features Ankush Khardori, author of Open File, former federal prosecutor, legal analyst, and New York Times opinion contributor. Ankush joins Alex and Pratik Chougule to discuss Todd Blanche, Trump’s Justice Department, the New York bar market, and whether Blanche could ever face suspension or disbarment. The conversation then turns to Trump’s political enemies and “revenge tour” markets: John Brennan, Anthony Fauci, James Comey, Adam Schiff, James Clapper, Letitia James, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, and others. Ankush explains how venue, grand juries, DOJ incentives, timing, and presidential pressure all matter when thinking about whether political investigations could turn into actual arrests or indictments. Finally, the show looks at Trump’s pardon pen. Trump has already shown a willingness to use pardons aggressively, but can traders forecast them? Ankush discusses the informal pardon economy, political connections, white-collar crime, January 6 pardons, Derek Chauvin, Maduro, and why Trump’s pardon process may be unusually ad hoc. Topics include: Trump revenge tour markets Who will be arrested before 2027? Trump pardon markets Todd Blanche attorney general Todd Blanche disbarment market New York bar discipline Justice Department independence Trump and the DOJ Political prosecutions and legal norms John Brennan market Anthony Fauci market James Comey market Adam Schiff market James Clapper market Letitia James market Loretta Lynch and Susan Rice Grand juries and venue shopping Florida investigations DC grand juries John Bolton classified documents case Trump pardon strategy January 6 pardons Derek Chauvin pardon market Maduro pardon market Prediction market legal trouble Kalshi Ninth Circuit case Nevada sports trading ban Political event contract regulation Fed rate hike markets Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech September Fed decision Congress returns to Washington Guest: Ankush Khardori — author of Open File Hosted by: Alex Keeney Pratik Chougule For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, legal markets, political trading, election odds, Fed markets, and probabilistic thinking. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  5. 27 Aug

    Warsh’s Big Speech, Zelenskyy Swings the Bat, PMs Face Scrutiny | Mick Bransfield

    Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole, oil risk is back in the Fed conversation, Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s fuel supply, and prediction market regulation is entering a new phase. Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell to break down the latest action across macro, geopolitics, prediction markets, and regulation. The show starts with small talk on Meta’s $18 billion settlement, the future of data centers, and the emerging political consensus as figures like Greg Abbott and Josh Shapiro turn against parts of the tech buildout. Then: Warsh Watch. With markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole speech, Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his views on inflation, rate hikes, bond markets, Treasury interventions, and the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury. What does it mean if the speech is boring? What would Warsh actually say if he wanted to signal a rate hike? And are traders overpricing the odds of a Fed hike this year? The show also connects the Fed conversation to Iran, oil, and global risk. If a deal involving Iran and Oman gets oil moving again, does that reduce pressure on inflation and make a rate hike less likely? And if oil risk fades, what does that mean for election markets? Next: Ukraine. Reports of a worsening fuel crisis inside Russia raise new questions about whether Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is changing the war’s strategic picture. Alex and Doug look at Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia’s gasoline shortages, and whether the current window before the midterms and Russian election creates any real chance of a deal. Then: Bet Sizing 101. Doug lays out a practical framework for sizing +EV prediction market trades without waking up at 3 a.m. to check the price — and why being underwater is not always a signal that you were wrong. Finally, Mick Bransfield joins Eventual to talk prediction market regulation. States are increasingly targeting political and election event contracts, with legal and regulatory fights developing in Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. Is this pre-election panic, legal dirty tricks, or the beginning of a larger crackdown? And does Don Jr.’s connection to the industry make prediction markets safer — or more politically exposed? Topics include: Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve rate hike markets, Inflation and bond market risk, Treasury interventions, Scott Bessent and Fed politics, Iran, Oman, and oil markets, Oil prices and election risk, Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia gasoline shortages, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia fuel crisis, How to size prediction market bets, +EV betting and bankroll discipline, Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Alaska voters, Rigatohni, GOP insiders, Mick Bransfield on prediction market regulation, Political event contracts, Election market regulation, Arizona criminal charges, Minnesota legislation, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin, Don Jr. and prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, and regulatory trouble   The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  6. 25 Aug

    SC Votes, Trade War, & Disclosure Day | Ben Jacobs, Ben Schreckinger, & Zoltar

    Today on the show: South Carolina votes, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are locked in a high-stakes GOP Senate fight, Canada trade war markets are moving, Scott Jennings shares are under review, and Ben Schreckinger joins Zoltar for a wild deep dive on UFOs, UAPs, alien disclosure, and prediction market rules. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start with South Carolina for quants. With voting underway in the Republican Senate primary, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are neck and neck in the latest Trafalgar poll. The team breaks down what traders should watch, from Horry County to Charleston to Columbia, and whether Graham’s 65–70% market price is too high, too low, or finally reflecting the race. Then: trader drama. The “MAGA Kiki Club” gossip around the Darline leak has the trader illuminati angry, Brian is in trouble, and the vibes-vs-quants debate is back. The show also checks in on the Canada trade war after Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” as tensions with Canada escalate. USMCA extension odds have fallen sharply, and the question is whether traders should keep pressing the short side. If time allows, the show also turns to Scott Jennings, with new reporting suggesting Trump may want a man as White House press secretary. Are 35-cent Jennings shares still worth holding, or is it time to dump? Then Ben Jacobs joins Eventual for a South Carolina vibe check from the ground. Ben talks about what he has seen across Horry County, Charleston, Columbia, and the broader state, whether voters know there is an election, what is motivating turnout, and how he would price the Graham vs. Norman market. Ben also weighs in on Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, Jewish voters in the Democratic Party, and what the post-MAGA Republican ecosystem could look like after Trump. CPAC, Turning Point, Don Jr.’s podcast, and the future of conservative media all make the board. Later, Gaeten Dugas joins Eventual to grade Alex and Brian’s Senate betting theses in a back-to-school segment. Finally, Ben Schreckinger of Paradigm News joins Zoltar for a pre-recorded alien disclosure segment. They discuss whether the U.S. government is covering up UFOs, what terms like “non-human intelligence,” “non-human biologics,” “UAP,” and “extraterrestrial” actually mean for prediction market resolution. The segment also covers Project Blue Book, Roswell, Lockheed Martin, Harry Reid, Anna Paulina Luna, Eric Burlison, Bobby Kennedy, Dr. Phil, disclosure politics, Japan UFO files, Brazil’s Varginha case, the Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, and whether 2028 could produce an “aliens are real” presidential candidate. Topics include:  South Carolina GOP Senate primary, Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman, South Carolina voting and turnout, Horry County, Charleston, and Columbia, Trafalgar polling and prediction markets, Vibes vs. quants, MAGA Kiki Club gossip, Trader illuminati drama, Canada trade war ,Trump and Lake Ontario, USMCA extension markets ,Scott Jennings White House press secretary odds, Ben Jacobs on South Carolina, Michigan Senate market ,Abdul El-Sayed and Democratic politics, Jewish voters and the Democratic Party, Post-MAGA Republican politics, CPAC, Turning Point, and Don Jr., Gaeten Dugas grades Senate bets, Ben Schreckinger on UFO disclosure, Zoltar on alien markets, Will the U.S. confirm aliens exist?, UAPs, UFOs, NHI, and non-human biologics, Trump disclosure speech rumors,  Obama alien comments, Anna Paulina Luna and congressional hearings, Eric Burlison and UAP luring claims, Bobby Kennedy and disclosure politics, Project Blue Book and Roswell, Lockheed Martin and alleged reverse engineering, Japan UFO file markets, Brazil Varginha UFO case, Zimbabwe school UFO story, Majestic 12, 2028 alien disclosure candidate The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

  7. 21 Aug

    Darline Graham, Scott Jennings & Dunce of the Week | Domer

    Today on the show: fake polls are back, longshots are alive, Darline Graham hits a rough patch in South Carolina, U.S. debt tops $40 trillion, and prediction market traders have plenty to sort through before September’s midterm trading wave. Alex Keeney is joined by Domer to break down the latest action across politics, elections, debt markets, and Polymarket. The show starts with small talk on White House press secretary markets, Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, Alina Habba, fake Dan Sullivan, and encouraging signs for Mary Peltola. Then: fake polls. After another longshot hit in Florida — with Angie Nixon, not Alexander Vindman, becoming the Democratic nominee for Senate — Alex and Domer ask whether “longshot summer” is now the defining feature of political trading. If traders are overbonding favorites, are cheap longshots the best answer? Next: South Carolina. Darline Graham’s odds have fallen after a rough debate moment on U.S.–Taiwan relations raised new questions about her experience in the Senate runoff to replace Lindsey Graham. Ralph Norman is gaining attention, Graham’s market has dropped from heavy favorite territory, and traders are asking whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or the start of a real collapse. The show also turns to America’s $40 trillion debt milestone. With long-term borrowing costs in focus and the Treasury stepping in with buyback plans, Alex and Domer go long or short on shutdown odds, debt downgrade markets, and whether Trump can reduce the deficit this year. Plus: Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Cory Mills tips, and Rick Wilson discourse.   Topics include: Fake polls in election markets Prediction market scams and bad data Golden age of longshots Angie Nixon Florida Senate upset Alexander Vindman and Resistance politics Overbonding favorites Cheap longshot trades South Carolina Senate runoff Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman Darline Graham debate fallout U.S.–Taiwan relations controversy Lindsey Graham replacement race MAGA Kiwi Club and Darline bonds White House press secretary markets Scott Jennings odds Anna Kelly, Natalie Harp, and Alina Habba Fake Dan Sullivan week Mary Peltola market signals U.S. debt hits $40 trillion Government shutdown odds U.S. debt downgrade markets Trump deficit reduction market Treasury buybacks and borrowing costs Oracle of the Week Juliegrace Brufke and Cory Mills Dunce of the Week Rick Wilson   For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Get ready for major midterm trading in September. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

    Darline Graham, Scott Jennings & Dunce of the Week | Domer
  8. 19 Aug

    Fake polls, Robinhood, and Hollywood | Suzy Weiss

    Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the return of fake polling as a prediction market risk, Florida election markets around Byron Donalds, James Fishback, and Cory Mills, and what traders should watch as political markets become more vulnerable to manipulation. Then Luke Kawa joins to discuss Robinhood’s prediction market boom, retail trading and WallStreetBets, AI capex and tech debt, Anthropic and OpenAI IPO odds, GPU prices, Fed markets, and whether markets are overreacting to Iran War headlines. Finally, Suzy Weiss of The Free Press kicks off Eventual’s pop culture coverage with Time Person of the Year, Oscars and Best Picture markets, Gen Z politics, AI anxiety, youth culture, and what prediction markets can reveal about where culture is headed. Guests: Luke Kawa (Sherwood News); Suzy Weiss (The Free Press)Hosts: Alex Keeney and Brian Golden More prediction market news and analysis at eventual.news. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

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Prediction Markets. Decoded.