Right to the Source

iGamingBusiness
  • 5.0 (2)
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  • Updated weekly

H2 Gambling Capital's Ed Birkin joins Clarion Gaming content director Robin Harrison for a weekly rundown of market moves, data dumps and more.

  1. Episode 38: Dan Phillips to discuss product innovation at iGB L!VE

    23 hr ago

    Episode 38: Dan Phillips to discuss product innovation at iGB L!VE

    Right to the Source welcomes its first guest in a while this week. Dan Phillips, CEO and Founder of NEL Advisory, joins Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin ahead of iGB L!VE to discuss product innovation and the recurrent grey market. Product innovation: evolution or illusion? Before diving into the industry talk, Dan shares what it was like starting out as a dealer at a basement casino in Soho in 1996. Thirty years on, he brings a seasoned perspective to one of the episode's central questions: has the industry actually innovated? Ed thinks not. Bet builders are just multiples repackaged, prediction markets are regulatory arbitrage, and live casino has been around forever. Robin argues that real innovation is iterative problem-solving rather than headline-grabbing product launches.  Dan lands somewhere in the middle: the industry is better at merging concepts than creating new ones. You cannot uninvent something, so the only sensible move is to embrace it. Where all three find common ground is on AI. Dan's view is that its real value lies in true personalisation, not in Amazon-style recommendations. Ed agrees the potential is there, having watched the industry talk about personalisation for 15 years without delivering it.  The grey market debate Do operators that built their businesses in unregulated markets deserve credit for eventually going legit? Ed, Robin and Dan all land in different places on this one. Tune in to find out where each of them stands, and the hint is that nobody fully agrees. Getting ready for iGB L!VE What is Open Space? As part of iGB Executive, the Open Space session at iGB L!VE brings operators, suppliers and product leaders into the same room for something deliberately different from a standard panel.  Taking place on Wednesday, 1 July, from 2:30pm to 4:00pm in the South Galleries at ExCeL London, the format is audience-led and runs under Chatham House rules - meaning no recording, no report, just open conversation. Dan will be facilitating, moving between breakout tables and prodding the debate where needed. Around 70 people have signed up, and when asked in advance what they wanted to discuss, 36% said AI, 12% customer engagement and retention and 11% payments.  The session will also feature live voting and open idea sharing. As Dan puts it, the point is to have conversations that simply do not happen on panels. Where to find your RTTS hosts Ed will be on the taxation and channelisation panel at 2:00pm on Wednesday 1 July as part of the Africa Summit, and on the prediction markets and World Cup panel at 2:00pm on Thursday 2 July.  Robin will be hosting a fireside chat at the Startup Accelerator on 30 June and MCing the Africa Summit on 1 July. If you see any of them, do go and say hello. If you want to revisit any previous episodes before the show, the full Right to the Source series is right here. See you at the show! Chapters (00:00:10) - Lewis and Clark(00:01:27) - Guests On The Podcast(00:02:36) - Dan Phillips on the Gambling Industry(00:03:30) - How to Get Out Of The Gambling Industry(00:08:23) - Coral's CEO on product innovation(00:09:34) - On Innovation in the Casino Industry(00:14:52) - Robin Quirk on IGB Live(00:16:19) - Robin Williams on Open Space(00:22:32) - Will AI Take Over the Slot Industry?(00:30:04) - Amazon Prime Film Review: Balls Up(00:30:52) - Mark Wahlberg on His Classics(00:32:38) - Mark Wahlberg on His Guest(00:33:42) - Have We Discovered a Regulated Market?(00:38:18) - Black Market and the Fair Play(00:45:10) - Mark Wahlberg On His Best 3 Movies(00:47:10) - IGB Live: Africa Panel and More

    49 min
  2. Episode 37: The World Cup betting opportunity, UAE and Finland unpacked

    4 days ago

    Episode 37: The World Cup betting opportunity, UAE and Finland unpacked

    With the World Cup already underway, Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are back with a data-packed episode covering H2's betting estimates for the tournament, the UAE's new regulatory CEO and what Finland's market opening really looks like in numbers. The big numbers behind World Cup betting H2 Gambling Capital estimates $60 billion will be wagered through legal sportsbooks globally at this year's World Cup, which is a 71% increase on the 2022 tournament.  Among the three host nations, the US leads with $2.9 billion while Mexico is close behind at $2.5 billion. Tune in to find out what H2 estimates for a football-mad nation like Brazil. In addition, Ed notes that operators should treat the World Cup as a customer acquisition opportunity rather than a pure revenue play. With 104 matches, up from 64 in 2022, margin uncertainty on results makes the revenue picture harder to call. Cautiously positive in both the UAE and Finland? As Robin reported, the GCGRA has appointed Ciarán Carruthers as its new CEO, replacing Kevin Mullally, who left in November last year. Carruthers brings significant Asian gaming experience from Galaxy, Sands China and Wynn Macau. Most recently, he steered Crown Resorts through its AML and responsible gambling remediation in Australia.  Robin finds the appointment genuinely compelling in view of the pro-industry approach and real scope for land-based growth. Ed is more sceptical, arguing that the UAE online market will be largely irrelevant to most of the industry. Listen in to hear where they land. In Finland, the number of companies which have applied for licences ahead of the market opening is far too many, according to the pair.  H2 estimates the licensed online market will reach $1.4 to $1.5 billion by 2028, up from $275 million now. Yet Ed raises questions about the "bad actor" provisions and what happens to operators currently targeting the market.  Ed closes with a pointed observation on the European Commission levy proposal: Is this what happens when AI-scraped data finds its way into policy? Check out the full Right to the Source series for more iGaming insights. Chapters (00:00:10) - The Yogi Bear(00:01:08) - Alex Pratt on Podcasts(00:06:58) - How much will the World Cup Betting be?(00:12:37) - Brazil Sports Betting(00:14:53) - UAE Gambling Regulator's new CEO(00:20:11) - vs the online marine industry(00:21:59) - Finnish regulator: 50 companies have now applied for licenses(00:26:25) - Sausage in New Zealand(00:30:50) - 99 Red Balloons(00:32:51) - Just Data, especially being used for policy(00:34:31) - Yogi Bear and Boo Boo

    36 min
  3. Episode 36: From Mexico to Austria, with a $5.7bn Caesars deal in between

    8 Jun

    Episode 36: From Mexico to Austria, with a $5.7bn Caesars deal in between

    Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are back with a round-the-world showcase in this episode, taking in three of the biggest stories in the industry: a market reshuffle in Mexico, Austria's long-awaited monopoly shake-up and the implications of the Caesars acquisition. Mexico's gambling market at a crossroads As the second biggest LatAm market after Brazil, Mexico has grown at a fast pace, and 80% of the market is onshore. However, a new 50% GGR tax rate and the licence revocation of Bet365 and Betano's licensing partner may now disrupt that growth.  H2 estimates Mexico's World Cup co-hosting role could generate around $2.5 billion in extra sportsbook turnover. Whether that offsets the drag from the tax hike remains to be seen. Austria iGaming: ending monopolies becoming the trend? Austria's Ministry of Finance has leaked a draft bill to end Win2day's decades-long online gambling monopoly and open the market to multiple operators for the first time. As Imogen Goodman reports, the Finance Ministry itself acknowledges the monopoly model has become increasingly difficult to enforce in the digital age. The reform could deliver a significant fiscal windfall, especially as Austria faces pressure to reduce its budget deficit. The pair welcome the direction of travel but raise serious concerns about what is on the table, for example, deposit limits of €250 per week for under-26s, a €2 maximum stake per spin and back taxes owed on outstanding Austrian court rulings.  Ed's early verdict is clear: with restrictions like these, the channelisation rate could end up closer to that of the Netherlands than anyone would like. As the Dutch channelisation slipped below 50% in the first half of 2025 due to strict deposit limits, Austria has been warned. What does it mean for the Caesars acquisition? As iGB reported, Tilman Fertitta recently agreed a $5.7 billion deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment. Ed's key point is that the Caesars digital business is strategically valuable not just as a revenue line but also as a player data tool for cross-selling to land-based properties. Spinning it off risks destroying that value entirely. Tune in to hear the pair's full verdict. Finally, we want to thank everyone who has been listening and getting in touch. Every message means more than you think. Check out the full Right to the Source series for more iGaming insights. Chapters (00:00:00) - Ren and Stimpy(00:02:17) - Correction: Emaciated Is Not Egregiated(00:03:15) - Celtic vs Hearts(00:05:19) - Sports Talk(00:08:35) - Mexico(00:15:28) - Gambling regulation in Mexico, Spain(00:17:11) - Austria to liberalize online gambling(00:21:45) - What Is The Age You Can Change Your Name in the UK?(00:23:12) - Austria's gambling restrictions(00:28:25) - People Talk About Caesar Salad(00:29:30) - Norway's online casino scandal(00:31:44) - Caesars Entertainment spin-off: EWTN interview(00:35:24) - Ren and Stimpy: Who Knows That?

    36 min
  4. Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

    20 May

    Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

    Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure. The prize draw opportunity and the RTP debate The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.  According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.  As Nicole Macedo recently reported, with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different. On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.  Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.  Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.  Beyond the UK: prediction markets and Sportradar There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup from iGB to keep up with the latest developments. The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict! Chapters (00:00:10) - Ed Birkin(00:03:12) - Sports Betting in Brazil(00:09:01) - Australia gambling ad reforms(00:14:07) - Vikehouse's fight for a monopoly in Finland(00:16:28) - The prize draw market in the UK(00:18:04) - Omaze's Adverts(00:18:39) - Prize draws(00:24:49) - RTP(00:31:14) - Will the RTP increase the attractiveness of slots on the illegal market(00:34:57) - Meta Adblocking Illegal Gambling(00:39:45) - Big Picture: Short Selling, Sport Radar,

    45 min
  5. Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

    25 Mar

    Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

    Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market. The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases, which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered. March Madness and the real size of the betting market According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million. Are prediction markets being overstated? From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle. The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects. Chapters (00:00:00) - Chris Rock: The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air(00:04:21) - Uncle Phil on the Podcast(00:05:31) - Europe Court of Justice(00:07:16) - European court case on betting losses(00:13:13) - Unlicensed Betting in Malta(00:16:49) - Nothing but an empty shell(00:17:38) - March Madness(00:20:51) - March Madness: Will it affect sports books?(00:25:38) - What's driving down sports bet handle?(00:30:39) - Governor of Utah on Political Correctness(00:36:02) - Kings Casino: Overhyped, but that's OK(00:40:04) - John Terry's NFTs(00:43:02) - Snoop Dogg Bought His NFT

    45 min
  6. Episode 32: Is Las Vegas gaming revenue really slowing down?

    17 Mar

    Episode 32: Is Las Vegas gaming revenue really slowing down?

    Right to the Source returns this week with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison taking a closer look at the latest Las Vegas gaming revenue figures, alongside the usual mix of sports trivia and off-script debate. While headline numbers suggest a dip in performance, Birkin argues the reality is more nuanced. January revenue is down year-on-year, but much of this decline can be attributed to the unusually high hold in baccarat and pai gow during the previous period.  With that removed, underlying performance in core segments such as gaming machines and table games remains relatively stable. Nevada gaming revenue is still above pre-Covid levels and broadly flat year-on-year, rather than in any meaningful decline.  Chapters (00:00:12) - Right to the Source(00:01:43) - Let's break football records this season(00:05:41) - Aberdeen salvage a point against Rangers(00:07:15) - Vegas: Is It Terrible?(00:08:45) - President Trump on Las Vegas' Decline(00:11:18) - Wonders of Las Vegas: Visitations down, but not(00:15:36) - Nevada visitation(00:22:34) - Right to the Source: The End of World War 3

    25 min
  7. Episode 31: Could Norsk Tipping woes topple its monopoly?

    23 Feb

    Episode 31: Could Norsk Tipping woes topple its monopoly?

    After an extended break Right to the Source is back, with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison speculating on Norsk Tipping losing its monopoly in the wake of a lottery scandal.  With over 15,000 players joining a suit in the wake of a litany of technical errors, which meant chances of winnings were distorted for some players, while others were told they had won far larger sums. The errors went undetected for almost a decade.  Could this be an echo of Veikkaus’ struggles in Finland, where advertising violations brought scrutiny and impacted public trust? That may well have contributed to the Finnish re-regulation, and as of 2027, the opening of a liberalised market. Norway has been resolutely against calls to end Norsk Tipping’s monopoly, but could this scandal force the issue? Ed also finds time to rant about prediction markets, insult Northerners and call Star Wars rubbish.  Chapters (00:00:15) - Samuel L. Jackson Is The Highest Grossing Actor Of All(00:04:14) - Prediction Markets(00:08:43) - Sports Betting(00:10:37) - Prediction Markets: Just a Slot Machine(00:16:16) - Sports Betting: Hype, no substance(00:17:59) - Norway: 15,000 Lotteries Players Sue the Competition(00:23:53) - Does issues with the lottery automatically feed through to the betting market?(00:26:57) - Are You Being Radicalized By Social Media?(00:27:38) - Germany's regulated gaming market(00:28:37) - Germany: The highest number of brands in the UK

    33 min
  8. Episode 29: Is the slot market ready for Big Daddy energy?

    14 Jan

    Episode 29: Is the slot market ready for Big Daddy energy?

    Right to the Source returns with its first episode of 2026, and this week Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are joined by Erland Hellström and Simon Hammon of slot disruptor Big Daddy Gaming.  Hellström is a veteran of Evolution and Hammon’s slot heritage stretches back to NetEnt’s Starburst, so there’s some serious muscle behind Big Daddy Gaming, but how are they going to build something that can disrupt an established order in a busy market? Chapters (00:00:15) - Robin Harrison on Banksy(00:02:57) - No gambling on the IGB podcast(00:04:00) - Warm Welcome to Big Daddy Gaming(00:04:36) - Big Daddy Gaming Interview(00:08:00) - Big Daddy Reboot: The(00:10:51) - What is the Big Daddy(00:12:54) - Irish CEO on the country's gaming landscape(00:14:07) - Simon Mansion on Online Casinos(00:16:12) - Slot Machine: AI vs Quality(00:19:27) - Irish slot tax debate, RTP(00:24:56) - Slots: Should Content Suppliers Be Held Responsible for(00:27:53) - How Much Visibility Do Game Developers Have Over Where Their Games Go(00:29:30) - Direct-to-Consumer, Aggregation(00:31:03) - Introducing Big Daddy's Slot(00:36:03) - Starburst(00:37:08) - What is the formula for a Top Title?(00:38:09) - Simon Erlen and John Hodgson on Right to the Source

    39 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

H2 Gambling Capital's Ed Birkin joins Clarion Gaming content director Robin Harrison for a weekly rundown of market moves, data dumps and more.

Information

  • Creator
    iGamingBusiness
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    36
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025
  • Show Website
    Right to the Source