Right to the Source

iGamingBusiness
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  • Updated weekly

H2 Gambling Capital's Ed Birkin joins Clarion Gaming content director Robin Harrison for a weekly rundown of market moves, data dumps and more.

  1. Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

    20 May

    Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

    Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure. The prize draw opportunity and the RTP debate The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.  According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.  As Nicole Macedo recently reported, with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different. On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.  Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.  Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.  Beyond the UK: prediction markets and Sportradar There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup from iGB to keep up with the latest developments. The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict! Chapters (00:00:10) - Ed Birkin(00:03:12) - Sports Betting in Brazil(00:09:01) - Australia gambling ad reforms(00:14:07) - Vikehouse's fight for a monopoly in Finland(00:16:28) - The prize draw market in the UK(00:18:04) - Omaze's Adverts(00:18:39) - Prize draws(00:24:49) - RTP(00:31:14) - Will the RTP increase the attractiveness of slots on the illegal market(00:34:57) - Meta Adblocking Illegal Gambling(00:39:45) - Big Picture: Short Selling, Sport Radar,

    45 min
  2. Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

    25 Mar

    Episode 33: Are prediction markets overstated for March Madness?

    Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market. The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases, which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered. March Madness and the real size of the betting market According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million. Are prediction markets being overstated? From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle. The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects. Chapters (00:00:00) - Chris Rock: The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air(00:04:21) - Uncle Phil on the Podcast(00:05:31) - Europe Court of Justice(00:07:16) - European court case on betting losses(00:13:13) - Unlicensed Betting in Malta(00:16:49) - Nothing but an empty shell(00:17:38) - March Madness(00:20:51) - March Madness: Will it affect sports books?(00:25:38) - What's driving down sports bet handle?(00:30:39) - Governor of Utah on Political Correctness(00:36:02) - Kings Casino: Overhyped, but that's OK(00:40:04) - John Terry's NFTs(00:43:02) - Snoop Dogg Bought His NFT

    45 min
  3. Episode 32: Is Las Vegas gaming revenue really slowing down?

    17 Mar

    Episode 32: Is Las Vegas gaming revenue really slowing down?

    Right to the Source returns this week with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison taking a closer look at the latest Las Vegas gaming revenue figures, alongside the usual mix of sports trivia and off-script debate. While headline numbers suggest a dip in performance, Birkin argues the reality is more nuanced. January revenue is down year-on-year, but much of this decline can be attributed to the unusually high hold in baccarat and pai gow during the previous period.  With that removed, underlying performance in core segments such as gaming machines and table games remains relatively stable. Nevada gaming revenue is still above pre-Covid levels and broadly flat year-on-year, rather than in any meaningful decline.  Chapters (00:00:12) - Right to the Source(00:01:43) - Let's break football records this season(00:05:41) - Aberdeen salvage a point against Rangers(00:07:15) - Vegas: Is It Terrible?(00:08:45) - President Trump on Las Vegas' Decline(00:11:18) - Wonders of Las Vegas: Visitations down, but not(00:15:36) - Nevada visitation(00:22:34) - Right to the Source: The End of World War 3

    25 min
  4. Episode 31: Could Norsk Tipping woes topple its monopoly?

    23 Feb

    Episode 31: Could Norsk Tipping woes topple its monopoly?

    After an extended break Right to the Source is back, with Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison speculating on Norsk Tipping losing its monopoly in the wake of a lottery scandal.  With over 15,000 players joining a suit in the wake of a litany of technical errors, which meant chances of winnings were distorted for some players, while others were told they had won far larger sums. The errors went undetected for almost a decade.  Could this be an echo of Veikkaus’ struggles in Finland, where advertising violations brought scrutiny and impacted public trust? That may well have contributed to the Finnish re-regulation, and as of 2027, the opening of a liberalised market. Norway has been resolutely against calls to end Norsk Tipping’s monopoly, but could this scandal force the issue? Ed also finds time to rant about prediction markets, insult Northerners and call Star Wars rubbish.  Chapters (00:00:15) - Samuel L. Jackson Is The Highest Grossing Actor Of All(00:04:14) - Prediction Markets(00:08:43) - Sports Betting(00:10:37) - Prediction Markets: Just a Slot Machine(00:16:16) - Sports Betting: Hype, no substance(00:17:59) - Norway: 15,000 Lotteries Players Sue the Competition(00:23:53) - Does issues with the lottery automatically feed through to the betting market?(00:26:57) - Are You Being Radicalized By Social Media?(00:27:38) - Germany's regulated gaming market(00:28:37) - Germany: The highest number of brands in the UK

    33 min
  5. Episode 29: Is the slot market ready for Big Daddy energy?

    14 Jan

    Episode 29: Is the slot market ready for Big Daddy energy?

    Right to the Source returns with its first episode of 2026, and this week Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are joined by Erland Hellström and Simon Hammon of slot disruptor Big Daddy Gaming.  Hellström is a veteran of Evolution and Hammon’s slot heritage stretches back to NetEnt’s Starburst, so there’s some serious muscle behind Big Daddy Gaming, but how are they going to build something that can disrupt an established order in a busy market? Chapters (00:00:15) - Robin Harrison on Banksy(00:02:57) - No gambling on the IGB podcast(00:04:00) - Warm Welcome to Big Daddy Gaming(00:04:36) - Big Daddy Gaming Interview(00:08:00) - Big Daddy Reboot: The(00:10:51) - What is the Big Daddy(00:12:54) - Irish CEO on the country's gaming landscape(00:14:07) - Simon Mansion on Online Casinos(00:16:12) - Slot Machine: AI vs Quality(00:19:27) - Irish slot tax debate, RTP(00:24:56) - Slots: Should Content Suppliers Be Held Responsible for(00:27:53) - How Much Visibility Do Game Developers Have Over Where Their Games Go(00:29:30) - Direct-to-Consumer, Aggregation(00:31:03) - Introducing Big Daddy's Slot(00:36:03) - Starburst(00:37:08) - What is the formula for a Top Title?(00:38:09) - Simon Erlen and John Hodgson on Right to the Source

    39 min
  6. Episode 28: Right to the Source gets into the festive spirit

    18/12/2025

    Episode 28: Right to the Source gets into the festive spirit

    Right to the Source made its comeback in April this year and 28 episodes in, we’re winding down for the holidays. But not before we decide who has been naughty and nice.  Yes, this festive special recaps 2025, picking out the overarching themes whether that’s the rise of prediction markets, the rise of taxes, or the fall of regulated market share in the Netherlands.  There’s also a quiz to test how much Ed Birkin actually knows about H2 Gambling Capital’s data, and whether Robin Harrison reads the iGamingBusiness.com site every day.  A huge thanks to all our listeners for tolerating us in 2025, and we’ll be back in the new year! Chapters (00:00:14) - The Most Used Phrase In The Podcast This Year(00:03:40) - Will More States liberalize casino gambling?(00:04:03) - Idaho Business Podcast(00:07:52) - Crypto's March to Legitimation(00:08:55) - Pintasia Salary Survey(00:11:11) - 2017: Key developments and themes for the year(00:15:17) - Top 10 gambling themes of 2017(00:17:21) - The Host of This(00:17:46) - Quizzes(00:18:22) - 735 downloaded from H2 database in the past week(00:19:34) - iGaming Business's Best Article of 2025(00:22:00) - Oceania's contribution to global gambling(00:22:58) - Igaming Business: Brazil's Tag Posts in 2025(00:24:33) - What market share did Sporting Bet have in Brazil in 2025?(00:26:49) - How much unlicensed GGR in Brazil?(00:28:22) - Santa's List(00:29:46) - Christmas Eve: The Nice List

    34 min
  7. Episode 26: Live from Las Vegas with the Plaza’s Jonathan Jossel

    10/12/2025

    Episode 26: Live from Las Vegas with the Plaza’s Jonathan Jossel

    It’s taken us a long time to get it live but Right to the Source’s lost episodes from G2E are slowly being uncovered, starting with the Plaza Hotel and Casino CEO Jonathan Jossel who talks Downtown, revitalising Vegas and Big John.   Chapters (00:00:06) - The Weak Member of the Jewish Family(00:00:48) - Interview With Jonathan(00:01:00) - Interview(00:01:37) - The 29-year-old CEO of Las Vegas' oldest casino(00:03:45) - The Plaza Hotel's transformation(00:06:35) - President Trump on Las Vegas' economy(00:11:25) - Questions for the Plaza's Customers(00:12:24) - The Love Letter I Had For Big John(00:15:25) - Las Vegas Business Talk: Downtown

    19 min
  8. Episode 27: New York casinos, Monarch Casino & Resort under the microscope

    10/12/2025

    Episode 27: New York casinos, Monarch Casino & Resort under the microscope

    Right to the Source returns with the three New York downstate casino licences seemingly destined for Queens and the Bronx, a deep dive into Monarch Casino & Resort, while Ed Birkin lives out the film Her with ChatGPT. Chapters (00:00:15) - Robin Harrison on The Muppets Christmas Carol(00:00:58) - Story of the Week(00:02:09) - Q&A(00:07:29) - The Jacksonville Jaguars' chances of making the NFL playoffs(00:11:34) - Pundits predict Sheffield Wednesday's relegation(00:12:22) - Monarch Casino: Does It Need a Hero?(00:14:36) - Talking about the Las Vegas and Reno revenues(00:15:22) - How Big Is the US Casino Market?(00:19:16) - My Dog's 'Persona'(00:20:04) - Talking To My Chat GPT Assistant(00:21:59) - Monarch Casino: Potentially Saved?(00:22:30) - Child's questions about Switzerland(00:26:07) - Talking Lottery in Switzerland(00:26:54) - Podcast

    28 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

H2 Gambling Capital's Ed Birkin joins Clarion Gaming content director Robin Harrison for a weekly rundown of market moves, data dumps and more.

Information

  • Creator
    iGamingBusiness
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025
  • Show Website
    Right to the Source