The Dividend Cafe

The Bahnsen Group
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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

  1. 13 HR AGO

    Tuesday - May 12, 2026

    Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets after recent all-time highs, noting the Dow slightly positive while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, with year-to-date gains still strong. He explains that high-momentum semiconductor and tech names sold off as longer-duration stocks reacted to higher interest rates, driven partly by rising energy prices; the 10-year yield moved up to about 4.45% and expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have faded. He reviews the latest CPI report: headline inflation came in as expected at 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, while core CPI was slightly above expectations at 0.4% and 2.8%, with a shelter-data quirk cited. He discusses how elevated oil and gasoline prices tied to Middle East tensions could pressure consumers and earnings, though consumer balance sheets and corporate earnings remain strong. He also notes the NFIB small business survey near 95 and addresses a question about Kevin Warsh’s investment disclosures, dismissing concerns as overblown. 00:00 Market Recap Snapshot 00:51 Momentum Stocks Pullback 01:20 Rates Rise on Oil 01:56 CPI Breakdown Explained 03:17 Energy Shock and Consumers 04:20 NFIB Small Business Read 04:40 Warsh Fed Chair Controversy 06:11 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    8 min

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    Monday - May 11, 2026

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Resx8f From New York City, this Monday Dividend Cafe covers markets’ growing desensitization to Iran-related news even as oil nears $98.50, the 10-year yield rises to ~4.41%, and major indices sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 appears expensive across valuation metrics, with dividend yield near a historic low (~1.08%), highlighting reliance on price returns versus cash income. The host argues earnings are currently driving markets, but notes a caveat: “other income” was 34% of net income, boosted by hyperscalers marking up private AI holdings. He reviews sector performance (energy best, communication services worst), policy items (possible reconciliation bill ideas like indexing capital gains to inflation; Virginia redistricting ruling; SEC exploring semi-annual reporting), economic data (115k jobs; weak manufacturing; low consumer confidence), housing trends, Fed leadership transition to Kevin Warsh, and rising longer-dated oil price expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:57 S&P Valuations Warning 03:56 Dividend Yield at Lows 05:53 Iran Risk Ignored 07:47 Earnings Driving Markets 08:23 Earnings Caveat AI 09:54 Geopolitics Headlines 10:32 Policy and Taxes Update 12:34 SEC Reporting Shift 13:00 Jobs and Consumers 14:21 Beef Tariffs Note 14:40 Housing Market Pulse 15:17 Fed Leadership Change 15:32 Oil Curve Backwardation 16:20 Ask TBG and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    19 min

  3. 4 DAYS AGO

    The Murdoch Dynasty - A Business Worth a Thousand Words

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QMkXSl David Bahnsen analyzes Rupert Murdoch’s 2019 sale of major 21st Century Fox entertainment assets to Disney for $71.3B, emphasizing not the politics of the parties but the business logic and investing takeaways. He contrasts Disney’s struggles since the deal with Fox’s stronger stock performance, arguing the outcome reflects capital intensity and duration risk: Disney bought scale and IP to compete in streaming, requiring heavy reinvestment amid intense competition and limited margin of safety, while Murdoch kept Fox’s news and sports assets (Fox News, Fox Business, broadcast and sports rights) as more durable, real-time, less disrupted businesses with higher margins. Bahnsen connects this to dividend growth investing as a shorter-duration equity profile that “gets paid now,” helping de-risk unknowns versus long-duration, capital-heavy bets like streaming content. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:10 Polarization Disclaimers 03:32 The 2019 Fox Disney Deal 05:13 Stock Performance Aftermath 06:48 Disney’s IP Playbook 08:25 Murdoch Keeps News Sports 10:59 Streaming Wars and Capital Risk 12:52 Capital Light Durability Lesson 15:17 Duration Risk and Dividends 18:16 Dividend Growth Takeaways 19:30 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    22 min

  4. 5 DAYS AGO

    Thursday - May 7, 2026

    Brian Szytel reports a modest market pullback with the Dow down 313 points, the S&P 500 down about 0.3%, and the Nasdaq slightly lower, alongside a small rise in yields (10-year around 4.38%) and oil up about 1%, while year-to-date gains remain strong. He highlights the ongoing impact of stimulus via legislation enabling advanced expensing, encouraging corporate investment with lasting effects on profitability. Economic updates include initial jobless claims rising to 200k from 189k but still very low, Q1 productivity at 0.8 versus 1.4 expected, and construction spending up 0.6% in March. In Q&A, he explains high margins through index composition toward higher-margin firms, a shift to services, and operating leverage from productivity and post-COVID pricing power, and contrasts US economic advantages with Europe’s fragmentation and vulnerability to cheaper Chinese competition. 00:00 Market Recap Today 00:16 Why Markets Pulled Back 00:57 Year to Date Snapshot 01:09 Stimulus And Capex Boost 02:09 Economic Data Roundup 03:29 Q&A Margins At Highs 04:08 Three Drivers Of Margins 05:18 Europe Vs US Competition 06:13 Politics And Wrap Up 06:34 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    9 min

  5. 6 DAYS AGO

    Wednesday - May 6, 2026

    Brian Szytel reports a strong market follow-through day, with the Dow up 612 points, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2%, driven largely by a ~7% drop in WTI oil on positive Iran deal developments, which also pushed the 10-year yield down 7 bps to about 4.35%. Earnings season is going better than expected with positive CapEx/AI themes, dividend increases, and upbeat guidance; private credit results have also beaten expectations despite negative media narratives. He notes the market’s year-to-date gains (Dow ~4.25%, S&P ~8%, Nasdaq ~11%+) and observes that only about half of S&P names are above the 200-day moving average, though semiconductors look frothy and expensive. He highlights ADP private payrolls of 109,000 vs. 99,000 expected and wage growth of 4.4% for job stayers and 6.6% for job changers. He explains that prices still move when U.S. exchanges are closed due to global listings and near 24-hour futures trading. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:49 Earnings Season Strength 01:42 Valuations And Internals 02:16 Semis Froth Check 03:01 Oil And Macro Risks 03:20 ADP Jobs And Wages 03:57 Why Markets Move After Hours 05:10 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    7 min

  6. 5 MAY

    Tuesday - May 5, 2026

    Brian Szytel reports stocks higher (Dow +356, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%) with bonds quiet and the 10-year at 4.42%, drifting up on Middle East turmoil and higher inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Oil continues to whipsaw amid geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran, including limited U.S. military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and some fire exchanged. He says equities are holding up because S&P 500 earnings are strong: about 60% have reported with revenue growth near 10%, earnings growth around 27%, and record margins above 20% helped by a more tech-heavy index. Economic data was mostly positive: JOLTS job openings at 6.8M, new home sales at 682K, and ISM Services at 53.6. He also explains Fed currency swap lines as a longstanding liquidity tool supporting the dollar’s reserve status. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:30 Rates and Oil Whipsaw 01:19 Why Stocks Hold Up 02:18 Economic Data Check 03:22 Fed Swap Lines Explained 05:02 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    7 min

  7. 4 MAY

    Monday - May 4, 2026

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42MhQwc David Bahnsen reviews a modest market pullback amid escalating Iran-related rhetoric and Strait of Hormuz risks: the Dow fell 557 points, the 10-year yield rose to 4.4%, and oil jumped above $105 while energy was the only S&P 500 sector up. He notes the unusually fast rebound from March volatility and points listeners to prior analysis on corrections vs bubbles and AI. In policy news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure a rescue and may face Chapter 7 liquidation. He discusses midterm dynamics favoring GOP Senate odds, very low initial jobless claims (190k), steady ISM manufacturing (52.7) with weaker employment, and travel-agency employment as a disruption case study for AI. CapEx is increasingly concentrated in large-cap tech/AI while small business investment plans hit a 2009-low. He covers administration frustration with Powell, futures implying little chance of cuts, and growing scrutiny of Fed independence. He cites Exxon on inventories masking supply stress and notes OPEC+ developments, midstream strength, and flat US rig counts. 00:00 Market Jitters and Iran 02:16 Correction Recovery Context 03:47 Sector Moves and Energy 04:04 Spirit Airlines Policy Fallout 04:56 Midterm Math and Senate Outlook 06:42 Jobs and Manufacturing Pulse 07:25 Travel Jobs and AI Disruption 08:55 CapEx Concentrated in AI 10:08 Fed Politics and Rate Path 11:46 Fed Independence and Swap Lines 13:02 Oil Inventories and Hormuz Impact 14:44 Energy Earnings and Rig Count 15:45 Wrap Up and Viewer Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    18 min

  8. 1 MAY

    Corrections, Manias, and the Lessons of History

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4w45BZc David Bahnsen discusses why market drawdowns are normal and distinct from bubbles, using 2026 S&P 500 moves (down ~9% peak-to-trough, then a sharp rebound to up ~5% YTD) to argue markets are behaving typically despite war-driven narratives. He distinguishes frequent corrections from rarer bubble bursts and critiques the incoherent swing from “apocalypse” to “mania” framing. Bahnsen outlines three investor responses—market timing (impractical), buy-and-hold (endure), and embracing volatility through dividend growth and reinvestment—emphasizing asset allocation built for investor temperament and cash-flow needs. He applies historical bubble psychology (Kindleberger’s stages) to AI, predicting mixed outcomes: some hyperscalers and AI-related firms will disappoint or fail, while valuable companies may survive valuation resets. Key takeaways include inevitability of future corrections, prudence via diversification and limited AI exposure, and potential selective opportunities after any AI-driven downturn. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 02:05 Year-to-Date Market Whiplash 04:45 Corrections Are Normal 08:11 Three Ways to Respond 12:20 Embrace Volatility With Dividends 14:10 Manias vs Bubbles 16:12 AI Bubble Risk and Diversification 23:27 Kindleberger Bubble Stages 26:42 Seven Investor Takeaways 29:05 Closing Philosophy and Farewell Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    32 min
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Hosts & Guests

About

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

Information

  • Creator
    The Bahnsen Group
  • Years Active
    2016 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.3k
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved @2024
  • Show Website
    The Dividend Cafe

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