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03/10/2024

028 | 万斯与沃尔兹副总统辩论回顾 The First and Last Vance-Walz VP Debate

【聊了什么】 2024 年美国大选的最后一场辩论（如果特朗普之后不变卦的话），也是副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹和 J.D. 万斯的唯一一场辩论，美国东部时间 10 月 1 日晚 9 点在 CBS 的纽约市演播室举行。本期播客中，我们回顾了共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯与民主党副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹之间的辩论。我们从辩论的总体观感出发，探讨公众反应与舆论评价之间的差异，并审视这场辩论在多大程度上聚焦于实质性的政策讨论。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:46 辩论总体观感 06:30 舆论和民众对辩论观感的差异 13:09 这是一场关注政策的辩论吗 17:21 这是万斯成为MAGA接班人的里程碑之战吗？ 20:05 特朗普拯救了奥巴马医保？ 24:28 极化环境下两党如何争取摇摆选民 28:03 万斯在堕胎问题上的回答 32:03 特朗普的民粹主义是如何征服共和党的 34:23 万斯的形象为何如此负面 38:33 两位副总统候选人辩论中的亮点 41:12 大选最后冲刺阶段的展望【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。【 What We Talked About】 The final debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (barring any last-minute changes from Trump) took place on October 1st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Held in CBS's New York City studio, this marked the sole face-off between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. In this episode, we dissected the debate between Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance and his Democratic counterpart, Tim Walz. We start by sharing our overall impressions of the event, then delve into the disparity between public reaction and media commentary. A key focus of our discussion is how much the candidates engaged in substantive policy debate versus political rhetoric. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:46 Overall impressions of the debate 06:30 Gap between public reaction and media narrative of the debate 13:09 Was this truly a policy-focused debate? 17:21 Is this Vance's defining moment as a potential MAGA heir? 20:05 Did Trump inadvertently save the Obamacare? 24:28 Courting swing voters in a polarized political landscape 28:03 Vance's stance on the abortion issue 32:03 How Trump's populism reshaped the GOP 34:23 Unpacking Vance's negative public image 38:33 Key moments from both VP candidates during the debate 41:12 Final stretch: What to expect as Election Day approaches 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

03/10/2024

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44 λεπτά
22/07/2024

023 | 拜登高风亮节，哈里斯临危受命 Biden Drops Out and Endorses Harris

【聊了什么】 2024年7月21日美国东部时间下午1:46，美国总统拜登在社交媒体上发表声明，宣布退出2024年美国总统竞选。这一事件不仅彻底改变了整个大选的局势，更有可能深远影响美国的命运。我们紧急录制了新一期播客，讨论了拜登退选的原因及其影响，分析了潜在接班人哈里斯的优势和劣势以及她可能的竞选策略，并展望了并不怎么光明的未来。本期播客录制于美国东部时间7月21日晚间。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:41 民主党高层如何通过压力让拜登退选 00:05:57 民主党新候选人产生的流程 00:11:52 各州选票截止日期和民主党大会召开时间带来的挑战 00:15:10 换人后如何从流程上增加哈里斯（或其他候选人）的合法性 00:19:34 民主党对哈里斯支持的不同态度 00:24:08 民主党换人是一种自我实现的预言 00:25:50 哈里斯的优势和劣势 00:27:27 拜登退选本人和民主党精英的都有责任 00:31:35 民主党国会成员要求拜登退选的考量 00:34:37 拜登为何无法扭转竞选危机 00:40:13 哈里斯给选举带来的变数 00:44:00 哈里斯需要尽快定义自己的形象 00:49:29 哈里斯的潜在副总统人选 01:02:30 哈里斯的动员和选举策略 01:09:45 极化环境下总统选举对参议院和众议院选情的影响 01:14:25 特朗普获胜、共和党控制两院的后果 01:17:04 民主党对特朗普获胜的恐惧 01:19:56 拜登接下来还能做什么？ 01:25:35 拜登退选打开的潘多拉魔盒【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者寄馀生：比较政治爱好者【 What We Talked About】 On July 21, 2024, at 1:46 PM Eastern Time, President Joe Biden announced on X that he has decided to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This development has not only dramatically reshaped the entire election landscape but also holds significant implications for the future of the United States. We recorded an urgent podcast episode to discuss this event. We examined the reasons behind Biden's decision and its potential impacts. We also delved into the strengths and weaknesses of potential successor Kamala Harris, her possible campaign strategies, and the uncertain future that lies ahead. This episode was recorded on the evening of July 21, Eastern Time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:41 How Democratic leaders pressured Biden to withdraw 00:05:57 The process of selecting a new Democratic nominee 00:11:52 Challenges posed by state ballot deadlines and the timing of the Democratic National Convention 00:15:10 Enhancing the legitimacy of Harris (or another candidate) through procedural changes 00:19:34 Varied attitudes within the Democratic Party towards supporting Harris 00:24:08 The self-fulfilling prophecy of the Democratic Party's candidate switch 00:25:50 Harris's strengths and weaknesses 00:27:27 Responsibility of Biden and Democratic elites in his withdrawal 00:31:35 Calculations of Democratic Congress members in urging Biden to step down 00:34:37 Why Biden couldn't reverse his campaign crisis 00:40:13 The uncertainties Harris brings to the election 00:44:00 The need for Harris to quickly define her own image 00:49:29 Potential VPl picks for Harris 01:02:30 Harris's mobilization and campaign strategies 01:09:45 The impact of the polarized environment on Senate and House races during the presidential election 01:14:25 Consequences of a Trump victory and Republican control of both chambers 01:17:04 Democratic fears of a Trump win 01:19:56 What Biden can still do moving forward 01:25:35 The Pandora's box opened by Biden's withdrawal 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/us/politics/biden-withdrawal-timeline.html https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/

22/07/2024

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1 ώ. 31 λ.
06/03/2024

011 | 无解的边境危机和无望的移民改革 On Border Crisis and Immigration Reform

【聊了什么】四年一度大选年，美国边境的移民危机毫不意外再次成为舆论和公众关注的焦点。更不意外的是，两党在解决边境危机的问题上无法达成妥协，最新移民法案刚推出就宣告死亡。为何移民问题在美国成为了无解的难题，这一问题又会如何左右2024年大选的走势？【参与调研】斯坦福商学院的研究者在进行一项关于美国H1B工作签证中国申请人的问卷调查。如果您今年计划参与H1B工作签证抽签，我们诚挚邀请您参与我们的研究。请访问 goto.stanford.edu/h1b 参与我们的调查。本调查一共有两次问卷，共计约20分钟。完成两次调查将获得10美元的Amazon礼品卡，虽然是杯水车薪，但您的想法将为我们研究者理解来美华人移民提供重要贡献。如果您认识亲朋好友参与今年的H1B工作签证抽签，也欢迎您将这一信息转发给他们，或在您的公司群组中扩散。非常感谢！【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:25 边境危机的背景 03:57 红州往蓝州运送移民是怎么回事 07:53 非法入境美国的移民面临的处境 14:41 为什么处理无证移民和难民问题如此棘手 16:48 拜登政府面临的移民危机和之前有什么不同 28:08 “非法移民” vs. “无证移民” 30:10 两党和选民对移民的不同态度 32:03 最新移民法案的前因后果 40:45 移民问题在政治中扮演的角色 01:01:51 进步派在反对法案通过的时候都在反对什么 01:04:30 移民问题会如何左右2024年大选的走势 01:06:55 如何才能增加美国人对移民的支持 01:22:09 共和党到底要什么 01:29:42 拜登如何“关闭边境” 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是小然。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客，更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。【 What We Talked About】 Every election cycle, the immigration crisis at the U.S. border inevitably emerges as a major point of focus of public attention and discourse. Equally unsurprising is the inability of the two parties to reach a consensus on addressing the issue, with the latest immigration bill effectively dismissed shortly after its introduction. The persistent deadlock raises the question that we hope to tackle in this episode: why has immigration become an intractable issue in the US? How will this shape the course of the 2024 election? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:25 Background of the border crisis 03:57 Red states transporting immigrants to blue states 07:53 The situation for immigrants experience after entering the U.S. illegally 14:41 The complexity of dealing with undocumented immigrants and refugees 16:48 Differences in the immigration crisis under the Biden administration compared to previous administrations 28:08 "Illegal immigrants" vs. "undocumented immigrants" 30:10 Varied attitudes towards immigration from different political parties and voters 32:03 Background and implications of recent immigration laws 40:45 Immigration issue's role in politics 01:01:51 Progressive opposition to the immigration bill 01:04:30 The impact of immigration issues on the 2024 election outlook 01:06:55 Strategies to enhance American support for immigration 01:22:09 GOP's objectives on immigration issue 01:29:42 How could Biden "shut down border" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Xiaoran. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

06/03/2024

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1 ώ. 36 λ.
20/03/2024

012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

【聊了什么】 81岁的拜登已成为美国历史上年龄最大的在任总统。倘若他成功连任并完成第二任期，届时他将高龄86岁。而对手特朗普，同样已年届77。无论选举结果如何，都将是美国总统年龄的一个新纪录。近期，拜登的年龄问题再次成为公众舆论的热点。本期节目中，我们试图慎入探讨拜登的年龄议题：“年龄门”是否会是拜登在2024年大选中败北的决定性因素？当公众讨论拜登的年龄时，他们究竟在谈论什么？【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:52 特别检察官Robert Hur提交的报告让拜登的年龄问题再次成为焦点 11:17 拜登的国情咨文演讲反响 14:12 拜登年龄问题为何比其他同龄政界人士引发更多争议 23:48 2020年拜登自称为“过渡期总统候选人”，他变卦了吗？ 29:00 换马是否能为民主党带来更大胜算？ 37:55 美国“老人政治”的问题 48:33 民调还靠谱吗？ 1:01:11 为什么拜登如此不受欢迎 1:08:20 拜登的竞选战略 1:14:15 如果大选前如果拜登出现意外，可能引发的连锁反应【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者小华：媒体人，美政观察者本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。【 What We Talked About】 At 81, Joe Biden is the oldest serving U.S. president. Ever. His potential second term would end with him at 86 years old, should he secure re-election and fulfill a second term. Looking across the aisle, his opponent Donald Trump is not much younger at the age of 77. No matter how the election unfolds, it will set a new precedent for the age of a U.S. president. Recently, Biden's age resurfaced to the forefront of public discourse. In this episode, we delve into the complexities surrounding the discussions of Biden's age: Could the issue become the pivotal factor that determines Biden's fate in the 2024 elections? When the public discusses Biden's age, what exactly are they talking about? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 2:52 The report by Special Counsel Robert Hur once again highlights concerns about Biden's age 11:17 Reactions to Biden's State of the Union Address 14:12 Why does Biden's age provoke more debate than other similarly-aged politicians? 23:48 Biden described himself as a "bridge candidate“ in 2020 – has he changed his position? 29:00 Would the Democratic Party have a better chance of winning by changing their candidate? 37:55 The issue of gerontocracy in U.S. politics 48:33 Can opinion polls still be trusted? 1:01:11 The reasons behind Biden's unpopularity 1:08:20 Biden's 2024 campaign strategy 1:14:15 The potential repercussions of an unforeseen event involving Biden before the election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Fine, Call It a Comeback Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden Recorded Interview: Robert Hur, President Biden Transcript Puck

20/03/2024

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1 ώ. 19 λ.
02/12/2024

040 | 美国参众两院选举结果分析 Breaking Down the U.S. Congressional Election Results

【聊了什么 The What】特朗普虽横扫七大摇摆州，共和党拿下两院的控制权，但共和党在众议院国会层面的优势远不及预期。在本期节目中，我们深入分析了这场选举中各方势力的消长：从加州缓慢的计票过程引发的制度争议，到约翰逊议长面临的党内挑战：从拉丁裔选民的投票取向之谜，到民主党在州级选举中的表现。面对微弱的众议院优势和复杂的参议院政治生态，共和党能否顺利推进特朗普的政策议程？各州最高法院选举和地方政治格局的变化,又将如何影响未来的政治版图？【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 The When】 00:22 概述2024年两院选举结果 01:24 为什么加州等地计票速度如此缓慢？ 10:35 总统选举结果和参众两院结果的差异 21:30 特朗普内阁提名对国会席位的影响 23:45 约翰逊议长的前景及新众议院规则 31:37 新的共和党周期开始了吗？ 42:07 探讨卢比奥离任后，德桑蒂斯对佛罗里达参议员任命的选择 46:15 参议院选情及共和党的结构性优势 53:19 参议院共和党和特朗普之间的关系 1:10:40 地方和州一级选举结果及其影响 01:21:40 即将到来的补选和2025年州长选举【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者寄馀生：比较政治爱好者【 What We Talked About】 Despite Trump's sweep of all seven swing states and Republican control of both chambers, their margin in the House proved far narrower than expected. In this episode, we delve into the shifting dynamics of this election: from controversies surrounding California's prolonged vote counting to Speaker Johnson's challenges within his party; from the enigma of Latino voting patterns to Democratic performance in state elections. With a precarious House majority and a complex Senate landscape ahead, can Republicans effectively advance Trump's policy agenda? How will state Supreme Court elections and evolving local political dynamics reshape America's political terrain? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:22 Overview of the 2024 Congressional election results 15:10 Why is vote counting so slow in California and other states? 35:25 Gap between presidential election results and Congressional outcomes 40:40 Impact of Trump's cabinet nominations on Congressional seats 45:50 Speaker Johnson's prospects and new House rules 52:30 Has a new Republican cycle begun? 1:03:50 DeSantis's options for Florida Senate appointment after Rubio's departure 1:08:45 Senate landscape and Republican structural advantages 1:14:20 Relationship between Senate Republicans and Trump 1:30:40 State and local election results and their implications 1:41:40 Upcoming special elections and 2025 gubernatorial races 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast

02/12/2024

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1 ώ. 40 λ.
27/08/2024

025 | 民主党全国代表大会和哈里斯的加冕 Democratic National Convention and Harris's Coronation

【聊了什么】民主党全国代表大会在8月19日到22日于芝加哥联合中心“胜利召开”。在本期播客中，我们和嘉宾向杨讨论了党代会的整体氛围，对整个大会进行了回顾，并和上个月共和党的大会做对比。我们也分析了哈里斯在演讲和竞选中的策略选择，并展望了未来两个月选举中可能出现的变数。本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作，欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 04:01 党代会气氛如何？民主党对危机管理格外重视？ 08:48 巴以问题在党代会中被淡化 17:11 美国党代会逐渐远离“开放”，靠近模范化？ 23:04 围绕特朗普展开的共和党党代会，前领导人都未出席 31:24 共和党邀请众多工人代表、劳工领袖参会 36:38 演讲顺序，有按照“黄金时间”规划吗？ 43:13 党代会对两党支持率有什么影响 48:24 部分民调预测哈里斯领先于特朗普，该如何看待？ 0:59:10 党代会上，哈里斯更多喊口号少提具体政策，是一种策略吗？ 1:18:00 接下来，决定大选走向的最大变数是什么？特朗普犯错还是哈里斯犯错？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者向杨：芝加哥大学社会学博士候选人，b站up“向杨Alan君” 【 What We Talked About】 The Democratic National Convention was held at the United Center in Chicago from August 19 to 22. In this episode, we sit down with our guest, Xiang Yang, to unpack the convention's vibe, key moments, and how it stacked up against the RNC last month. We also analyze Harris's strategic choices in her acceptance speech and her campaign, and forecast the potential game-changers in the final stretch to Election Day. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 04:01 What's the vibe at the convention? Is the Democratic Party paying extra attention to crisis management? 08:48 The Israel-Palestine issue downplayed at the convention 17:11 Are U.S. party conventions moving away from "openness" and towards normalization? 23:04 RNC centered around Trump, with former leaders absent 31:24 RNC invited worker representatives and labor leaders to the convention 36:38 Is there a "prime time" strategy for the speech order? 43:13 How do the conventions impact the approval ratings of both parties? 48:24 Some polls show Harris leading Trump - how should we interpret this? 59:10 Harris focuses more on slogans and less on specific policies - is this a strategy? 1:18:00 What's the biggest wildcard - a Trump misstep or a Harris blunder? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 向杨：PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Chicago, Bilibili creator “向杨Alan君” 【拓展链接】向杨Alan君 https://space.bilibili.com/495979610/

27/08/2024

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1 ώ. 41 λ.
05/02/2024

010 | 那些我们在2023年失去的精英大学校长们 2023: College Presidents Under Fire

【聊了什么】从斯坦佛到哈佛，美国精英大学的校长们先后历劫。2023年10月7日以色列哈马斯冲突升级之后，中东问题在美国精英高校成为争议焦点，各大校长们也被卷入风波。为什么有的校长因此下台，还有一些校长却得以“幸存”？【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:01 共和党初选的最新进展和分析 05:30 利益冲突声明 07:03 斯坦福大学前校长Marc Tessier-Lavigne(MTL)的学术造假问题及其辞职 14:18 学生记者的胜利？ 16:43 巴以冲突在美国精英大学成为争议焦点 21:15 听证会上的“明星”议员Elise Stefanik 24:56 国会听证会为何变成了马戏团表演 28:15 听证会上发生了什么？为什么校长们给出如此糟糕的回答 40:03 大学校长是都应该在争议政治话题上站队 45:30 为什么美国右翼对美国精英高校充满敌意 59:10 听证会后第一个下台的宾大校长Liz Magill 1:02:30 哈佛校长的“抄袭”风波 1:17:25 “幸存”的MIT校长和文理科在巴以冲突上的分歧 1:24:36 金融大佬Bill Ackman的闹剧【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者本期节目的制作人是小华和Lokin，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。【 What We Talked About】 From Stanford to Harvard, leaders of America's elite universities have faced a multitude of challenges in 2023. Following the Israel-Hamas conflict that intensified on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has emerged as a contentious issue within these top institutions, propelling their presidents into the heart of the storm. Amidst the controversy, why have some presidents resigned while others have seemingly managed to "survive"? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:01 Latest updates and analysis on the Republican primaries 05:30 Conflict of interest statement 07:03 Academic misconduct and resignation of Marc Tessier-Lavigne, ex-president of Stanford 14:18 A win for student journalists? 16:43 The Israeli-Hamas war: a contentious issue in US elite universities 21:15 Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in the spotlight at the hearing 24:56 Why congressional hearings have turned into a spectacle 28:15 What went wrong at the hearing? Poor responses from university presidents 40:03 Should university leaders take a stand on controversial political topics? 45:30 Why the American right is hostile towards elite universities 59:10 The first resignation post-hearing: Liz Magill, former president of Penn 1:02:30 Plagiarism scandal involving the former president of Harvard 1:17:25 The "surviving" MIT president 1:24:36 - The saga of financial mogul Bill Ackman 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher This episode is produced by Xiaohua and Lokin, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Why Some Academics Are Reluctant to Call Claudine Gay a Plagiarist The Invention of Elise Stefanik Theo Baker Meet the student who helped boot the president of Stanford Is Claudine Gay a Plagiarist? 'This is Definitely Plagiarism': Harvard University President Claudine Gay Copied Entire Paragraphs From Others’ Academic Work and Claimed Them as Her Own How We Squeezed Harvard to Push Claudine Gay Out Bill Ackman's celebrity academic wife Neri Oxman's dissertation is marred by plagiarism

05/02/2024

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1 ώ. 27 λ.
09/08/2024

024 | 哈里斯的梦幻开局和副总统沃尔兹的选择 Harris's Dream Start and the Choice of Tim Walz

【聊了什么】拜登退选并宣布支持哈里斯之后的最初几周，哈里斯打出了梦幻开局。8月6日，哈里斯选择明尼苏达州的州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）为自己的竞选搭档。我们会在本期节目中盘点哈里斯的开场，副手的选择，以及特朗普的反应。本期播客录制与美国东部时间8月6日晚间。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:15 过去一个月的感受 00:03:00 哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人后的党内团结和士气高涨 00:15:32 哈里斯的好感度上升及其原因 00:18:00 万斯好感度和特朗普的绑定 00:23:06 拜登/哈里斯的竞选团队 00:25:58 民主党选民政治联盟可能的变化和挑战 00:28:20 哈里斯竞选策略和政策立场的转变 00:32:32 哈里斯选择蒂姆·沃尔兹作为副总统候选人以及没有选别人的原因 00:35:38 北卡州长库珀主动高风亮节 00:39:21 宾州州长夏普罗最终出局 00:45:30 沃尔兹如何成为左派的最爱 01:03:25 沃尔兹的竞选能力怎样 01:07:45 民主党给共和党贴上怪异（Weird）标签的策略能否奏效 01:10:13 特朗普对哈里斯的种族主义攻击 01:17:23 特朗普竞选策略的变化【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 Following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement, Harris launched her campaign with remarkable momentum. On August 6th, she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. In this episode, we'll analyze Harris's campaign kickoff, the veepstakes, and Trump's response. This podcast was recorded on August 6th at 8 PM Eastern. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:15 Reflecting on the past month 00:03:00 Democratic Party unity and surge in morale post-Harris nomination 00:15:32 Understanding Harris's rising favorability ratings 00:18:00 Vance's approval tied to Trump's fortunes 00:23:06 Breakdown of the Biden/Harris campaign team 00:25:58 Shifts and challenges in the Democratic voter coalition 00:28:20 Evolution of Harris's campaign strategy and policy stances 00:32:32 Unpacking Harris's VP pick: Why Walz, why not others 00:35:38 Governor Cooper's (NC) strategic withdrawal 00:39:21 Governor Shapiro's (PA) exit from VP contention 00:45:30 Walz's ascent as a progressive favorite 01:03:25 Assessing Walz's campaign chops 01:07:45 Viability of the Dems' "weird" strategy 01:10:13 Examining Trump's racist attacks on Harris 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】定义卡玛拉·哈里斯 https://theamericanroulette.com/defining-kamala-harris/ 两集新播客和三个梗🥥🌴 https://theamericanroulette.com/meme-saves-america-kamala-harris-brat/

09/08/2024

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1 ώ. 21 λ.
09/05/2024

端闻：拜登 vs. 《纽约时报》 Biden vs. The New York Times

【聊了什么】本期节目是《端传媒》的播客节目《端闻》中的一期，小华在节目中讨论了近期美国总统拜登政府与《纽约时报》之间的矛盾冲突。《纽约时报》在政治立场上一向被视为倾向民主党和自由派，但拜登团队最近却对《纽约时报》相当不满。Politico最近的一篇报道将这一矛盾摆到了公众面前。在节目中，我们深入分析了事件的来龙去脉。播客录制完成后，双方的矛盾非但没有平息，反而因《纽约时报》执行总编周看的一次专访再度引发热议。我们在《美轮美换》会员通讯中对事件的最新进展进行了讨论，欢迎通过注册电子邮箱，免费阅读这期会员通讯的内容。【支持端传媒】欢迎你成为端传媒的订阅会员，支持华文世界不可或缺的深度报道和多元声音：https://bit.ly/3QDXSy3 【使用此链接可「尊享八折」，一次解锁端传媒、华尔街日报、当今大马会籍】【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。【 What We Talked About】 This episode of Initium Reports podcast by Initium Media, featuring Xiaohua as a guest. In this episode, we discuss the recent conflict between the Biden administration and The New York Times. The New York Times has long been viewed as leaning towards the Democratic Party and liberal ideologies. However, the Biden team has recently expressed strong dissatisfaction with the paper. A recent Politico report brought this discord into the public eye. In this episode, we delve into the origins and development of this saga. After the recording of the podcast, the conflict between the two parties did not subside. Instead, it reignited due to an interview given by the Joe Kahn, the Executive Editor of The New York Times. In the latest edition of The American Roulette’s newsletter, I discuss the latest developments in saga. You can register with your email address to read this subscriber-only newsletter for free. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

09/05/2024

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24 λεπτά
30/06/2024

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?

【聊了什么】灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。本期播客录制于6月29日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划众筹平台链接： Patreon 爱发电合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾 00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点 00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响 00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误 00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民 00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误 00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应 00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登 00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊 00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性 00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登 00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？ 00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？ 01:01:10 不负责任的预测【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice? In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down. This episode was recorded on June 29th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances 00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate 00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape 00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team 00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters 00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy 00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate 00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden 00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate 00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate 00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down? 00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden? 00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden? 01:01:10 Update on our predictions 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应 012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

30/06/2024

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Baihua Media is dedicated to informing and empowering the growing Chinese-speaking diaspora community around the world, by serving honest dialogues, encouraging open communications, and empowering authentic expressions, through a network of high-quality Chinese-language podcasts.

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012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

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019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?

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