Game Theory Game Theory
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- Ciencia
Speakeasy conversation about strategy, competition, economics, history, and policy from two non-experts.
The episodes include some actual economic Game Theory such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Traveler's Dilemma, and the Public Good game. Episodes also include conversations on dilemmas in TV/Movies, sports, and board/card games, as well as the history of military, intelligence (spies), politics, and economics.
The objective is simply to think critically about how people make strategic choices regarding the world around them and most importantly, about the people around them.
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114. Why You Can't Get a Restaurant Reservation - Bot's May Have Something to Do With It
Summary
In this episode, the hosts discuss various topics including Chris' recent wedding, changes in Adobe's terms and conditions, and the practice of scalping restaurant reservations. They explore the implications of Adobe's attempt to own the intellectual property of content created on their software and the backlash they faced.
They also delve into the phenomenon of scalping restaurant reservations and the emergence of platforms like Appointment Trader. The hosts share their thoughts on the ethics of scalping and the separation of wealth in society.
The conversation explores the concept of trading reservations and the implications of the gig economy on various industries. It discusses how the gig economy has changed the way people interact with services like Airbnb and restaurant reservations.
The conversation also delves into the ethics and legality of selling reservations for public goods like campsites and hunting tags. The hosts share their opinions on different aspects of the gig economy, including the use of bots to book reservations and the impact of COVID-19 on dining experiences.
Takeaways
Adobe faced backlash for attempting to own the intellectual property of content created on their software
The emergence of platforms like Appointment Trader has made it possible to scalp restaurant reservations
The ethics of scalping reservations and the separation of wealth in society are topics of debate
AI technology and its potential impact on society is a recurring theme in the conversation The gig economy has transformed the way people interact with services like Airbnb and restaurant reservations.
The ethics and legality of selling reservations for public goods like campsites and hunting tags are debated.
The use of bots to book reservations and the impact of COVID-19 on dining experiences are discussed.
There is a need to strike a balance between ensuring equal access to public goods and allowing businesses to profit from their services.
00:00 Chris' Wedding and Congratulations
03:01 Controversy over Adobe's Terms and Conditions
06:30 The Impact of AI on Society
14:16 The Rise of Restaurant Reservation Scalping
22:49 The Impact of the Gig Economy
26:21 The Use of Bots and the Impact of COVID-19
29:38 Ethics and Legality of Selling Reservations for Public Goods
36:28 Balancing Access and Profit in the Reservation Market
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113. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy & Confirmation Bias - Facts to Suit Theories Instead of Theories to Suit Facts
In this episode, the hosts discuss the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which is when outcomes are analyzed out of context, giving the illusion of causation rather than attributing the outcome to chance.
They provide examples of this fallacy, such as the alcohol industry pushing back on labels that state alcohol causes cancer.
They also touch on the narcissist's prayer, which is a chain of denial used to avoid responsibility.
The hosts mention the connection between this fallacy and confirmation bias, as people tend to seek out information that supports their existing narrative.
They also hint at the role of conspiracy-minded thinking in this fallacy.
The conversation explores the concept of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy and its application in various contexts. It begins with a discussion on Venn diagrams and the history of their invention by John Venn.
The hosts then delve into the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which involves drawing conclusions based on selective data. They provide examples of how this fallacy is used in various fields, including stock market analysis and conspiracy theories.
The conversation concludes with a tribute to Charles Mattson Love, an expert on Easter Island, who appeared on the show Ancient Aliens.
Chapters
00:00
Introduction and Apology for Missing Last Week
06:32 Explanation of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
13:49 Confirmation Bias and the Fallacy
21:46 The Alcohol Industry and the Fallacy
24:03 The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Drawing Conclusions from Selective Data
27:45 Applying the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy in the Stock Market and Conspiracy Theories
38:42 Differentiating Between Logical Fallacies and Disagreements
41:34 Nostalgia and the Creation of False Equivalences
45:18 The Advanced Achievements of Ancient Civilizations
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112. Sell in May & Go Away -- Chicken or the Egg?
In this episode, the hosts discuss the adage 'sell in May and go away' and its implications for the stock market. They explore the historical underperformance of the stock market during the summer months and the potential reasons behind it.
They also touch on the impact of the presidential election cycle on stock market performance. The hosts caution that they are not offering financial advice and emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research before making investment decisions.
The conversation explores the concept of 'Sell in May and go away,' which suggests that investors should sell their stocks in May and re-enter the market in October. The hosts discuss the historical data and theories behind this strategy, including the sell-off before summer vacations and the cyclical nature of the stock market.
They also touch on the influence of cultural factors and the limitations of using past performance as an indicator of future results. The conversation highlights the importance of considering other factors and making informed investment decisions.
Takeaways
The adage 'sell in May and go away' suggests that the stock market tends to underperform during the summer months.
Historical data shows that the stock market has lower average returns from May to October compared to November to April.
Presidential election years may see higher stock market returns during the summer months.
The housing market and the academic calendar may contribute to the underperformance of the stock market in the summer.
It is important to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. The 'Sell in May and go away' strategy suggests selling stocks in May and re-entering the market in October.
The strategy is based on historical data and theories, such as the sell-off before summer vacations and the cyclical nature of the stock market.
Cultural factors and regional differences may influence the effectiveness of the strategy.
Using past performance as the sole indicator of future results is not reliable, and other factors should be considered.
Making informed investment decisions requires analyzing multiple factors and understanding the limitations of certain strategies.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the 'Sell in May and Go Away' Adage
06:33 Elon Musk's Controversial Battery Range Lock
10:24 Understanding the Underperformance of the Stock Market in the Summer
21:39 The Impact of Presidential Election Years on Stock Market Performance
25:07 The Importance of Conducting Thorough Research Before Making Investment Decisions
26:34 Understanding the 'Sell in May and go away' Strategy
27:47 Exploring the Effect in the Southern Hemisphere
28:02 The Myth of Flushing Direction and Investment Strategy
29:07 Considering Other Factors in Investment Decisions
31:23 The Influence of Vibes and Cultural Factors
35:29 The Importance of Informed Investment Decisions
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111. Recruiting Games: Companies Are Recruiting Earlier; Why Game Play Can Help Find Talent
In this episode, the guys talk about how early major firms are beginning their recruiting process and whether it's possible for game theory to apply to the hiring process.
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110. Pizza Meter - How Pizza Orders Predict War & Waffle House Index - They Unofficial FEMA Designation
Summary
The conversation discusses the concept of the pizza meter, which suggests that an increase in pizza orders from government buildings can be indicative of important political or military events.
The pizza meter has been observed to predict events such as the invasion of Grenada and Panama. The Pentagon has attempted to combat the pizza meter by sending aides out to physically get pizzas and mixing up the orders.
However, the pizza meter remains a popular and intriguing phenomenon. The conversation also touches on the nostalgia and romance associated with pizza, as well as its role in social gatherings and workplace celebrations.
The conversation explores the concept of the pizza meter and its potential implications for national security. It discusses how the frequency of pizza orders to the Pentagon can inadvertently reveal sensitive information to adversaries.
The conversation also touches on other food-related metrics, such as the Waffle House index and the stripper index, which can provide insights into the state of the economy.
The hosts emphasize the importance of paying attention to local knowledge and intuition in understanding societal trends and potential crises.
Takeaways
The pizza meter suggests that an increase in pizza orders from government buildings can be indicative of important political or military events.
The pizza meter has been observed to predict events such as the invasion of Grenada and Panama.
The Pentagon has attempted to combat the pizza meter by sending aides out to physically get pizzas and mixing up the orders.
Pizza holds a nostalgic and romantic appeal, and it plays a role in social gatherings and workplace celebrations. The frequency of pizza orders to the Pentagon can inadvertently reveal sensitive information to adversaries.
Food-related metrics like the Waffle House index and the stripper index can provide insights into the state of the economy.
Paying attention to local knowledge and intuition can help understand societal trends and potential crises.
The hosts highlight the importance of diversifying pizza orders to maintain operational security.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Discussion of Food
10:28 The Pizza Meter and its Predictive Power
16:20 The Pentagon's Attempt to Combat the Pizza Meter
36:43 Food as Indicators: Waffle House Index and Stripper Index
45:24 The Value of Local Knowledge and Intuition
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109. Spotify's Stream Farm Problem & Amazon's Fake Walk-Out Stores
Summary
The conversation explores the fraudulent practices of buying followers and streams in the music industry and social media platforms.
It discusses the incentives for marketing firms to manipulate engagement numbers and the challenges of creating a level playing field.
The conversation also touches on the impact of these practices on the broader public and the difficulty in distinguishing between real engagement and bot activity. The episode highlights the need for platforms to crack down on these fraudulent practices and the potential financial losses for artists and the industry.
In this conversation, the hosts discuss various topics including the decline in the number of teenagers getting driver's licenses, the decrease in sexual activity among teenagers and adults, Amazon's use of workers in India to monitor its just walk out stores, and the manipulation of streaming numbers on platforms like Spotify and TikTok.
They also touch on the formula for writing a popular pop song and the prevalence of content farms and click farms. The hosts express their fascination with these topics and speculate on the future of these issues.
Keywords
fraudulent practices, buying followers, buying streams, music industry, social media platforms, marketing firms, engagement numbers, level playing field, bot activity, driver's licenses, decline, teenagers, sexual activity, Amazon, just walk out stores, India, streaming numbers, Spotify, TikTok, pop songs, content farms, click farms
Takeaways
Fraudulent practices of buying followers and streams are prevalent in the music industry and social media platforms.
Marketing firms manipulate engagement numbers to guarantee results, creating an artificial advantage and raising the bar for competitors.
Distinguishing between real engagement and bot activity is challenging, leading to an unequal playing field.
These practices have broader implications for the public, as the internet becomes inundated with artificial engagement.
Platforms need to crack down on fraudulent practices to protect artists and maintain the integrity of the industry. The number of teenagers getting driver's licenses has declined significantly over the years.
There has been a decrease in sexual activity among teenagers and adults.
Amazon's just walk out stores rely on workers in India to monitor customer behavior.
Streaming platforms like Spotify and TikTok have been accused of manipulating streaming numbers.
There is a formula for writing a popular pop song.
Content farms and click farms are prevalent in the digital world.
Titles
The Impact on the Public: Navigating the Dead Internet
Cracking Down on Fraud: Protecting Artists and the Industry The Decrease in Sexual Activity
The Formula for Writing a Popular Pop Song
Sound Bites
"They're just pressing play over and over and over again."
"They can guarantee a minimum amount of streaming increase and a minimum amount of sales increase."
"It's impossible to put artists on an equal footing with each other or record labels on an even footing with each other."
"Driver's license was where she broke up with a guy and just kept driving past his house. And like, who doesn't relate to that, you know? Like, who doesn't relate to that?"
"So in 95, two thirds of American teenagers 16 to 19 had driver's licenses. And today it's less than half."
"People have been having less sex, whether they're teenagers or 40-somethings. It's just having less."
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Personal Updates
09:06 Unveiling the Fraud: Buying Followers and Streams
26:09 The Impact on the Public: Navigating the Dead Internet
38:00 Amazon's Use of Workers in India for Just Walk Out Stores
47:31 The Prevalence of Content Farms and Click Farms
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