More or Less: Behind the Stats

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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

HACE 8 H

Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is that true? Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first six months of 2025. What do you need to know about that stat? The Daily Mail has described a recent scientific paper as describing a global cancer “explosion”. Is that the whole story? And why have Oxford and Cambridge dropped down a university league table? If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

28 min
HACE 4 DÍAS

The Case of the Missing US Data

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not. We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters. If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Audio Mix: Neil Churchill

9 min
24 SEP

Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants to Europe when we were in the EU. Is that true? Did the governor of the Bank of England get his numbers wrong on the UK’s ageing population? Why is the price of beef up by 25% in a year? Is it possible to prove that MPs are using AI to write their speeches? If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
20 SEP

Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’, live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth”. “While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left,” he said. We investigate the statistical evidence around political violence – both in people’s attitudes and the crimes themselves. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
17 SEP

Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with some benefits up 80% since 2018. Are those numbers right? Do French pensioners really earn more than their working-age compatriots? How is it possible for one kilogram of fish food to produce one kilogram of salmon? And do we really have five senses? If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
13 SEP

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by 2030?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade. The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap. But is this prediction based on solid evidence? Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
11 SEP

Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country? Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct? We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms. And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine. If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
6 SEP

Do 11,000 sharks die every hour?

Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them. Millions of sharks are killed in fishing nets and lines every year. One statistical claim seems to sum up the scale of this slaughter – that 100 million sharks are killed every year, or roughly 11,000 per hour. But how was this figure calculated, and what exactly does it mean? We go straight to the source and speak to the researcher who worked it out, Dr Boris Worm, a professor in marine conservation at Dalhousie University in Canada. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Annie Gardiner Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min

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