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  • #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI

    4 DAYS AGO

    1

    #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI

    Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch). Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sc See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript CONTACT LEX: Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring – join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other – other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Box: Intelligent content management platform. Go to https://box.com/ai Quo: Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses. Go to https://quo.com/lex UPLIFT Desk: Standing desks and office ergonomics. Go to https://upliftdesk.com/lex Fin: AI agent for customer service. Go to https://fin.ai/lex Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to https://shopify.com/lex CodeRabbit: AI-powered code reviews. Go to https://coderabbit.ai/lex LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex Perplexity: AI-powered answer engine. Go to https://perplexity.ai/ OUTLINE: (00:00) – Introduction (01:39) – Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections (16:29) – China vs US: Who wins the AI race? (25:11) – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning? (36:11) – Best AI for coding (43:02) – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs (54:41) – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019 (1:02:38) – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding? (1:18:45) – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training (1:51:51) – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs (2:12:43) – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research (2:35:36) – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks) (2:39:22) – Silicon Valley bubble (2:43:19) – Text diffusion models and other new research directions (2:49:01) – Tool use (2:53:17) – Continual learning (2:58:39) – Long context (3:04:54) – Robotics (3:14:04) – Timeline to AGI (3:21:20) – Will AI replace programmers? (3:39:51) – Is the dream of AGI dying? (3:46:40) – How AI will make money? (3:51:02) – Big acquisitions in 2026 (3:55:34) – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta (4:08:08) – Manhattan Project for AI (4:14:42) – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters (4:22:48) – Future of human civilization

    4 days ago

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  • Facebook, Instagram i WhatsApp uvode pretplate i AI agente

    3 DAYS AGO

    2

    Facebook, Instagram i WhatsApp uvode pretplate i AI agente

    Osnovne verzije Instagrama, Facebooka i WhatsAppa ostaju besplatne, ali sve što znači veću kontrolu, manje oglasa ili naprednije AI funkcije seli se iza pretplate. Instagram bi tako mogao uvid u to tko vas ne prati natrag i anonimno gledanje Storyj i  AI agenta Manusa. Riječ je o alatu koji bi korisnicima omogućio da delegiraju konkretne zadatke – od planiranja putovanja do izrade prezentacija – čime se Meta pozicionira u segment “AI koji radi”, a ne samo “AI koji savjetuje”. To je dio šire strategije: prelazak s isključivo oglasnog modela na kombinaciju oglasa, pretplata i AI premium usluga._______________ 0:00 Uvod0:44 Što znači uvođenje pretplata za korisnike?4:00 AI agenti dolaze na Facebook6:00 Plaćanje još jedne pretplate8:30 Koliko će dugo internet i AI biti besplatan?11:35 Stigao je novi i moćan AI agent - MoltbotTOP i FLOP15:30 Meta otpustila 10% zaposlenika koji rade VR18:00 Nestajat će struja zbog AI servera19:00 Dobra pretplata za kreativce21:00 Predlažemo domaće EU tehnološke alternative _______________ 🎧 PRETPLATITE SE NA AUDIO VERZIJU PODCASTAApple Podcasts ► https://podcasts.apple.com/hr/podcast/netokracija-podcast/id1482239155Spotify ► https://open.spotify.com/show/1JeEKPdFXJopMUEPXucMUKPocket Casts ► https://pca.st/5e4ggi22 📨 PRIMAJTE NETOKRACIJA NEWSLETTERBesplatno u vašem inboxu ► https://netokracija.com/newsletter 🛎️ DOJAVITE VIJESTImate prijedlog ili želite dojaviti vijest ► info@netokracija.com 📱 PRATITE NETOKRACIJU NA DRUŠTVENIM MREŽAMAPratite nas na Twitteru ► http://twitter.com/netokracijaPratite nas na Instagramu ► http://instagram.com/netokracijaPratite nas na BlueSkyu ► https://bsky.app/profile/netokracija.bsky.socialLajkajte nas na Facebooku ► http://www.fb.com/netokracija 🤘 PRATITE SVOJE NETOKRATEIvan Brezak Brkan (IBB)https://www.ibb.wtfhttps://www.twitter.com/in/ivanbrezakbrkanhttps://linkedin.com/in/ivanbrezakbrkan Mia Biberovićhttp://www.twitter.com/cyberkozahttps://www.instagram.com/cyberkozahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/miabiberovic Nikolina Oršulićhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolina-or%C5%A1uli%C4%87-81852531/ Antonija Bilić Ararhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/antoniijabilicarar/ Marin Pavelić https://www.linkedin.com/in/marin-paveli%C4%87-aba851174/

    3 days ago

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    24 min
  • ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping

    5 DAYS AGO

    3

    ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping

    (0:00) Bestie intros + quick Davos recap (9:55) ICE chaos in Minneapolis: aftermath and reactions to the two recent deaths (45:54) Clawdbot takeover: Jason demos his OpenClawd instances, Kimi K2.5, entering the next phase of AI (1:09:58) De-dollarization, gold and silver ripping (1:20:05) California governor race Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/StephenM/status/2015133481261474030 https://www.axios.com/2026/01/27/trump-stephen-miller-massacre-minnesota-shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2Z3ZUbL2e0 https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/billions-paid-out-by-medicaid-in-minnesota-may-be-fraudulent-us-attorney https://www.dhs.gov/wow https://nypost.com/2026/01/25/us-news/anti-ice-protesters-swarm-st-paul-hotel-they-believe-is-housing-fed-agents/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tke0kY4l4e4 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/murders-plummet-crime-trends-2025/ https://x.com/shellenberger/status/2016671351486967995 https://x.com/BoLoudon/status/1942641987326185693 https://x.com/JamesBlairUSA/status/2016154036550930765 https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2016564161484873748 https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2016537492493676905 https://x.com/chamath/status/2015966444027322763 https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-2026 https://www.reuters.com/world/musks-spacex-merger-talks-with-xai-ahead-planned-ipo-source-says-2026-01-29

    5 days ago

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    1h 30m
  • How Much Will the iPhone Fold Cost?

    6 DAYS AGO

    4

    How Much Will the iPhone Fold Cost?

    This week, the crew sits down to talk about everything from new Apple AirTags to TikTok now being partially owned by the U.S government. Along the way they throw in some talk about the weather and Khaby Lame before wrapping it all up with a fun game that Andrew came up with! It's a long one but we hope you enjoy! Shop the merch: https://shop.mkbhd.com Links: PR Newswire - Khaby Lame press release: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rich-sparkle-holdings-closes-acquisition-of-tiktok-icon-khaby-lames-core-company-302658017.html Verge - TikTok banning words: https://www.theverge.com/news/868362/tiktok-epstein-ban-hoax-rumor-not-true-stop-it Verge - The TikTok deal is done: https://www.theverge.com/tech/866437/tiktok-usds-bytedance-sale-oracle-mgx Verge - Samsung Trifold pricing: https://www.theverge.com/news/868190/samsung-galaxy-z-trifold-us-price-release-date-availability Apple - New AirTag: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/01/apple-introduces-new-airtag-with-expanded-range-and-improved-findability/ TechCrunch - TikTok: https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/23/tiktok-users-freak-out-over-apps-immigration-status-collection-heres-what-it-means/ Music provided by: Epidemic Sound Social: Waveform Threads: https://www.threads.net/@waveformpodcast Waveform Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/waveformpodcast/?hl=en Waveform TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@waveformpodcast Hosts: Marques: https://www.threads.net/@mkbhd Andrew: https://www.threads.net/@andrew_manganelli David: https://www.threads.net/@davidimel Adam: https://www.threads.net/@parmesanpapi17 Ellis: https://twitter.com/EllisRovin Mariah: https://www.instagram.com/totallynotabusinessacc Join the Discord: https://discord.gg/mkbhd Intro/Outro music by 20syl: https://bit.ly/2S53xlC Waveform is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    6 days ago

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    1h 56m
  • Hater Season: Openclaw with David Gerard

    1 DAY AGO

    5

    Hater Season: Openclaw with David Gerard

    In the first episode of Better Offline’s “Hater Season” - an ongoing roundtable with tech’s greatest haters - Ed is joined by David Gerard of Pivot to AI to talk about Openclaw/Clawdbot/Moltbot, how seemingly smart people keep being “one-shotted” by AI, and why we’ve been headed toward a calamity in the markets since 2008.https://pivot-to-ai.com/ https://www.youtube.com/@PivotToAI https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pivot-to-ai/id1844698298 https://pivottoai.libsyn.com/ Please support me by subscribing to my premium newsletter - here’s $10 off your first year of annual https://edzitronswheresyouredatghostio.outpost.pub/public/promo-subscription/84rt762qen - it features an in-depth version of my dot com bubble analysis here: https://www.wheresyoured.at/dot-com-bubble/ YOU CAN NOW BUY BETTER OFFLINE MERCH! Go to https://cottonbureau.com/people/better-offline and use code FREE99 for free shipping on orders of $99 or more. --- LINKS: https://www.tinyurl.com/betterofflinelinks Newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/BetterOffline/  Discord: chat.wheresyoured.at Ed's Socials: https://twitter.com/edzitron https://www.instagram.com/edzitron https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com https://www.threads.net/@edzitron Email Me: ez@betteroffline.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    1 day ago

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    38 min
  • “I Spent 4 Minutes With A Living Alien!” -Top Neurosurgeon [Exclusive Interview]

    5 DAYS AGO

    6

    “I Spent 4 Minutes With A Living Alien!” -Top Neurosurgeon [Exclusive Interview]

    Our American Alchemists this week are the Varginha UFO witnesses. A Prominent Brazilian Neurosurgeon Who Was Face To Face With a Live Alien Being for 4 Minutes, and Whose Team Did Surgery On It, Speaks To Western Media In A Long Form Interview For The First Time. A Pilot and UFO Crash Witness Who Held The Crash Material In His Hands Also Goes On Record. Finally, The Doctor Who Did The Autopsy On The Soldier Who Apprehended The Alien Being And Died From A Never-Before-Seen Infection From It Speaks Out. Sign Up With Our Sponsors Below For Exclusive Alchemy Deals! Wild Alaskan Salmon: Get $35 off your first box of wild-caught, sustainable seafood—delivered right to your door. Go to: https://www.wildalaskan.com/JESSE. AG1: Go to https://www.DRINKAG1.com/ALCHEMY to get their best offer… get 3 FREE AG1 Travel Packs and 3 FREE AGZ Travel Packs, plus FREE Vitamin D3+K2 and AG1 Welcome Kit with your first AG1 subscription order! Chubbies: Chubbies is here to keep you comfy and looking good year-round. Get 20% off with code JESSE at https://chubbiesshorts.com/jesse #chubbiespod The Perfect Jean: F*%k your khakis and get The Perfect Jean 15% off with the code JESSE15 at https://theperfectjean.nyc/JESSE15 #theperfectjeanpod -------------------------- Support Our Other Projects Below! Grab Your American Alchemy Merch Here ➤ https://www.americanalchemymerch.com/ Join The American Alchemy Magazine Here ➤ https://americanalchemymagazine.substack.com/ Subscribe To Our Clips Channel (10 Minute Highlights!) ➤ https://www.youtube.com/@UC8ZKTXN9trt5dhixz6b6l6w -------------------------- JOIN OUR WHOP (Early Drops/Ad Free) ➤ https://whop.com/jessemichels Discord ➤https://discord.gg/crHc44m3kF Instagram ➤ https://www.instagram.com/jessemichelsofficial TikTok ➤ https://www.tiktok.com/@itsjessemichels X ➤ https://twitter.com/AlchemyAmerican Spotify ➤ https://tinyurl.com/jessemichelsspotify Clips Channel ➤ https://www.youtube.com/@JesseMichelsClips Apply For Jobs ➤ apply@jessemichelsmedia.com Sponsor Inquiries ➤ sponsor@jessemichelsmedia.com Media Inquiries ➤ mike@jessemichelsmedia.com Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 04:53 Carlos de Sousa 9:54 The Crash and Its Aftermath 15:45 Encounters with Military Personnel 19:18 The Varginha Case Unfolds 25:54 Witnesses and Their Accounts 31:11 Investigating the Crash Site 34:09 The Emotional Toll 38:07 Men in Black 48:09 Public Scrutiny 1:00:16 Extraterrestrial Existence 1:07:52 Future Investigations 1:14:01 Hypnotic Regression 1:18:59 The Impact of UFO Encounters 1:23:01 Questions of Credibility 1:36:04 The Alien Encounter 1:36:37 Mental Connection and Hypnosis 2:09:36 Video Of Alien Being 2:21:36 The Intent of the Being 2:34:06 Emergency Surgery 2:45:24 Investigative Pursuits 3:02:10 The Aftermath 3:05:21 The Autopsy 3:23:54 Bacteria Speculations 3:37:42 Further Investigation 3:40:22 The Call for Action Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    5 days ago

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    3h 51m
  • The third golden age of software engineering – thanks to AI, with Grady Booch

    1 DAY AGO

    7

    The third golden age of software engineering – thanks to AI, with Grady Booch

    Brought to You By: • Statsig — ⁠ The unified platform for flags, analytics, experiments, and more. • Sonar – The makers of SonarQube, the industry standard for automated code review • WorkOS – Everything you need to make your app enterprise ready. — Every few decades, software engineering is declared “dead” or on the verge of being automated away. We’ve heard versions of this story before. But what if it’s just the start of a new “golden age” of a different type of software engineering, like it has been many times before? In this episode of The Pragmatic Engineer, I’m joined once again by Grady Booch, one of the most influential figures in the history of software engineering, to put today’s claims about AI and automation into historical context. Grady is the co-creator of the Unified Modeling Language, author of several books and papers that have shaped modern software development, and Chief Scientist for Software Engineering at IBM, where he focuses on embodied cognition. Grady shares his perspective on three golden ages of computing since the 1940s, and how each emerged in response to the constraints of its time. He explains how technical limits and human factors have always shaped the systems we build, and why periods of rapid change tend to produce both real progress and inflated expectations. He also responds to current claims that software engineering will soon be fully automated, explaining why systems thinking, human judgment, and responsibility remain central to the work, even as tools continue to evolve. — Timestamps (00:00) Intro (01:04) The first golden age of software engineering (18:05) The software crisis (32:07) The second golden age of software engineering  (41:27) Y2K and the Dotcom crash  (44:53) Early AI  (46:40) The third golden age of software engineering  (50:54) Why software engineers will very much be needed (57:52) Grady responds to Dario Amodei (1:06:00) New skills engineers will need to succeed (1:09:10) Resources for studying complex systems  (1:13:39) How to thrive during periods of change — The Pragmatic Engineer deepdives relevant for this episode: • When AI writes almost all code, what happens to software engineering?  • Inside a five-year-old startup’s rapid AI makeover • Software architecture with Grady Booch • What is old is new again — Production and marketing by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://penname.co/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@pragmaticengineer.com. Get full access to The Pragmatic Engineer at newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/subscribe

    1 day ago

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    1h 17m
  • The NFL (2026 Update)

    27 JAN

    8

    The NFL (2026 Update)

    The NFL is nearly synonymous with America today. Practically nothing is more quintessentially and universally American than tuning in every Sunday (and Monday, and Thursday… and sometimes Saturdays and holidays too) to watch the world’s most beautiful ballet of violence. It generates the most revenue of any sports league globally and sets new records for team valuations each year. But it wasn’t always this way. The history of the NFL mirrors America’s own development: scrappy small-town teams rode the successive growth waves of the automobile, TV, the Internet and social media to grow larger than the even the founders’ wildest dreams. Whether you watch football or not, the NFL is one incredible business story, and one that we’ve taken more lessons from over the years for Acquired itself than perhaps any other episode we’ve made. Note: This is a remastered release of our original January 2023 episode, updated to today's Acquired production standards. It also features a full hour+ followup section at the end covering the seismic shifts in the NFL’s business since the original episode’s release. Much has happened in those three years: Taylor Swift entered the league (via merger 🙂), streaming went mainstream (and took over Thanksgiving and Christmas), sports gambling exploded from 46 million to 76 million bettors, and — in perhaps the most surprising development — private equity finally stormed the gates of the NFL. Oh, and average franchise valuations grew by 60% from $4.5 billion to over $7 billion. Communist capitalism is alive and well! We're also releasing this episode in advance of Super Bowl LX here in San Francisco, where Acquired is hosting the NFL’s inaugural Super Bowl Innovation Summit! Sponsors: Many thanks to our partners: VantaSierraCrusoeSentry (+ join the list for Sentry & Vercel’s Super Bowl Fan Zone party)Links: Innovation Summit details and all Super Bowl LX Week events in San Francisco (note content from the Innovation Summit will be posted publicly the week after the Super Bowl — we’ll update this page with links when available)America’s GameSports Illustrated’s oral history of the famous Joe Namath “pool photo”All episode sourcesCarve Outs: The MenuPeyton’s PlacesMore Acquired: Get email updates and vote on future episodes!Join the SlackSubscribe to ACQ2Check out the latest swag in the ACQ Merch Store!00:00:00 Intro00:00:37 Welcome to the Remastered NFL Episode00:06:05 Origins of Football & the Forward Pass (1869-1905)00:14:34 The Founding of the NFL (1920)00:41:52 Bert Bell's "Any Given Sunday" Philosophy (1946)01:03:28 Pete Rozelle Transforms the League (1960)01:56:34 The Creation of the Super Bowl (1966)02:09:47 Monday Night Football Invents Modern Sports TV (1970)02:37:19 The NFL's Business Model Explained02:39:28 CTE & the Kaepernick Controversy (2016)02:48:36 Analysis: Playbook & 7 Powers Analysis03:21:04 2026 UPDATE: Netflix, Youtube, Amazon Streaming, T-Swift, Gambling & New TV Deals03:57:11 Private Equity Enters the NFL (2024)04:14:08 Conclusion & Thank Yous  ‍Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.

    27 Jan

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    4h 17m
  • The Gayborhood

    01/12/2025

    9

    The Gayborhood

    For the last few years, Grindr has branded itself as the global gayborhood—a digital safe space for queer communities. But a series of European investigations raised serious questions about how the app handled user data. In this episode, we talk with Chaya Hanoomanjee of the law firm Austin Hayes, who is leading a major UK claim alleging that Grindr shared sensitive user information, including in some cases health data, without proper consent. We trace the story from Norway’s multimillion-euro fine to the 12,000-person UK action and unpack what “special category data” actually means, why these cases matter, and what we’re all really agreeing to when we tap “accept.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    01/12/2025

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    38 min
  • De prijsverwachting van Bitcoin is in geen enkel model meer te vangen | 415 B

    2 DAYS AGO

    10

    De prijsverwachting van Bitcoin is in geen enkel model meer te vangen | 415 B

    De Bitcoinkoers kreeg afgelopen week een flinke klap, de nominatie van een nieuwe FED-voorzitter, liquidaties en een kelderende zilver- en goudprijs. In deze aflevering bespreken we de macro-economische factoren die hebben gezorgd voor de rode cijfers voor de cryptomarkt. Daarnaast gaan we in op het artikel 'De cyclus die niet recyclebaar is', van Tim Stolte, portfoliomanager van Amdax en host van Een Nieuwe Koers. Het klassieke idee van een vaste vierjaarscyclus rond de halving is volgens hem een selffulfilling prophecy en biedt beleggers te weinig houvast in het nemen van geïnformeerde beslissingen over investeren in Bitcoin. In plaats van korte, explosieve bullmarkten ziet hij een langdurigere en minder harde stijging, waarin de rol van grote institutionele partijen steeds groter is geworden. Het idee van van miners die zich laten verassen door de halving en zo de prijs opdrijven is volgens hem overtrokken. Maakt dit Bitcoin professioneler, stabieler of kwetsbaarder? Nu de vierjaarscyclus bij het oud papier kan richten we ons op de vraag waar we nog op kunnen varen. Volgens Tim gaat Bitcoin meer en meer lijken op een traditionele asset, al heeft deze toch nog steeds bijzondere eigenschappen. Ook de waardebepaling van altcoins en de rol van de massale institutionele adoptie passeren de revue in aflevering 415 van de Cryptocast. Genoemd in deze podcast Het artikel ‘De cyclus die niet recyclebaar is’ van Tim Gasten  Raoul Esseboom Tim Stolte Host Daniel Mol Redactie Daniel Mol Matthijs Damsteeg  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    2 days ago

    •
    51 min

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