Poly Marks

Andrew, Matt, and Joel
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Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

  1. 17 DEC

    #13. Marking the Future

    Send us a text Welcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. This week we hit three big themes: A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI eraCanada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good tradeWe also detour into China vs U.S. economics, data centers, energy constraints, and whether AI is still early innings… or closer to a dot-com style reckoning. Not financial advice. Entertainment only. Chapters 00:00 Cold open — “Delete this, lawyer”  01:10 HBO/Warner merger market: Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL  12:40 AI + IP licensing (why libraries matter)  20:30 Canada recession bet: how it resolves + why it might hit  31:10 U.S. recession odds + tariffs + supply chain uncertainty  40:20 AI bubble “burst” market: what would need to happen  52:10 Venezuela tanker seizure bet: why another one won’t happen this year  58:30 2028 election odds: Kamala “sprinkle,” Newsom skepticism, who announces early  1:06:30 Wrap + year-end recap teaser

    47 min

  2. 9 DEC

    #12. The PolyMarket Meta War: Whales, UMA, and Angry Degens

    Send us a text In Episode 12 of the Poly Marks Podcast, the brothers get meta. Joel, Matt, and Andrew start with updates on their Venezuela and alien bets.  From there, they pivot into Epstein file bets, what counts as “substantive information,” whether financial crimes count, and why almost-unanimous Congressional pressure makes Joel bullish that something will be released—even if it’s disappointingly redacted. We then dive deep into the weird mechanics of resolving PolyMarket markets—especially the controversial “Will PolyMarket go live in the US in 2025?” contract. They break down how UMA token holders effectively act as referees, why whales have an incentive to flood resolution votes to protect million-dollar positions, and whether that feels fair compared to something like Kalshi’s more centralized “council” model.

    44 min

  3. 28 NOV

    #11. Unidentified Alpha Phenomena: Venezuela, Canada, and UAP Bets

    Send us a text Matt hosts (!) as the crew returns from a short break with real profits, a few scars, and some spicy new markets: longest U.S. shutdown (win), Canada tariff odds (still climbing), Venezuela regime change vs. kinetic strikes, Alberta separatist referendum probability, and a detour to whether Trump or Rubio will force UAP/“alien” disclosures. Betting philosophy sprinkled throughout: bank early gains, size small on longshots, and exploit thin markets.

    50 min

  4. 23 OCT

    Ep. 10 - Hall-Marks & Mint-Marks

    Send us a text  The Poly Marks crew debates whether the U.S. shutdown becomes the longest ever—and when to take profits before one Schumer headline nukes the price. Then: Trump–Putin meeting odds, Zelensky talks, and Venezuela—kinetic strike or cold deal? A rapid-fire macro round pits ETH vs. gold (debasement, adoption, ATHs), plus Canada’s election/budget gambit and U.S. race tidbits. Strategy theme: buy value, sell the spike, and mind the rules. Markets move; don’t get Marked.

    48 min

  5. 11 OCT

    Ep 9. House of the Patri-Mark

    Send us a text The Poly Marks boys welcome their first guest — their dad — for a full family breakdown of Polymarket. They dive into how the platform works, why it beats traditional betting, and what “no house edge” really means. Then it’s into the week’s action: Nobel leaks, Trump’s peace-prize odds, Venezuela tension, Hamas ceasefire bets, and a Canada corner on recession risks and rate cuts. Legal disclaimers, family riffs, and a few humble brag/soul-crush trade recaps included.

    40 min

  6. 8 OCT

    #8. Poly-Tics and Pizza Tricks

    Send us a text The bros regroup after a lost recording and dive back into PolyMarket. Andrew takes a long-shot: Ukraine recaptures any Crimean sliver by June 2026 (8%). They spar over Russia’s escalation room, then pivot to Virginia’s AG race drama (Andrew bets “No” on Jay Jones). Big portfolio check: Trump lowering Canadian tariffs—partial profit taken; rules mean any tariff tweak resolves “Yes.” Venezuela “pizza tracker” chatter returns; Andrew still likes a minimal U.S. strike. Gaza cease-fire odds rise; Netanyahu’s coalition math looms. New bet: U.S. shutdown becomes the longest (35+ days).

    41 min

  7. 25 SEPT

    #7. Mark Your Man (In Caracas)

    Send us a text In Episode 7 of the Poly Marks Podcast, the brothers cover updates on recent bets, from fertility rate wins to losses on France-Palestine and Israel-Iran. They debate whether NATO involvement in Ukraine is edging closer, spurred by Russian provocations and Trump’s shifting stance. Andrew explains his wager on Ukrainian drone strikes in Moscow, while Matt unpacks “Nothing Ever Happens” military markets. The group dives deep into Venezuela, Maduro’s regime, and regime-change risks before closing on parlay bets in U.S. elections.

    46 min

  8. 19 SEPT

    #6 Mark it Zero

    Send us a text  Joel, Matt, and Andrew review recent PolyMarket bets, starting with the Fed rate cut outcome where Joel profited and Andrew lost. They discuss Eric Adams’ mayoral race odds, and the complexities of ceasefire bets in Gaza and Ukraine. The brothers analyze Israel’s political fragility, drone warfare shaping Ukraine-Russia, and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iran.

    42 min
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About

Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

Information

  • Creator
    Andrew, Matt, and Joel
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    13
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025 Poly Marks
  • Show Website
    Poly Marks