Poly Marks

Andrew, Matt, and Joel
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Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

  1. 1 DAY AGO

    #16. Marks Make Markets Move More Money

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down one of the wildest market weeks yet — as Iran strike odds explode, collapse, and reward traders on both sides. Matt and Andrew walk through how they both made money betting opposite outcomes, why timing matters more than conviction, and how crowd momentum can create short-lived but massive pricing errors. The conversation then moves to domestic politics, including Tim Walz–related markets, fraud allegations, and whether accountability ever reaches the top. They also look at Texas Democratic primary markets, why parties anoint favorites early, and how narrative often matters more than polling. Finally, they pivot back to Venezuela: Maria Corina Machado, her latest headline-grabbing move (including the “peace prize” optics), and what it signals for the transition — plus the Polymarket angle on whether she actually returns to Venezuela before March 31.  Less predictions, more positioning — and another reminder that gambling on the future is easier than predicting it.

    47 min

  2. 9 JAN

    #15. Marked Down Dictators

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys take a victory lap as the Maduro-out market resolves, breaking down what happened, what didn’t resolve, and why market wording matters as much as outcomes. From Venezuela’s future and succession questions to rising tension around Iran, Cuba, and even Greenland, the conversation shifts from celebration to positioning. The crew debates timelines, risk management, and why stretching bets often beats chasing fast resolution. The episode closes with early looks at 2028 Republican nomination markets, including Rubio, Vance, DeSantis, and long-shot plays — plus a broader discussion on how to trade prediction markets like markets, not parlays. As always: this is not financial advice — just a group of brothers trying to price the future better than the headlines.

    57 min

  3. 3 JAN

    #14. Kinetic Strike Out

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, Joel hosts Matt and Andrew for a fast-moving recap of the week’s biggest markets: a reported kinetic strike in Venezuela that turns into a rules-and-resolution fight, the Supreme Court tariff case and what the justices’ questions might signal, plus rising tension around Iran and the growing sense that a wider conflict is being priced in. The boys finish north of the border with Canada recession odds, Carney/Parliament math, and what it all means for positioning in 2026.

    47 min

  4. 17/12/2025

    #13. Marking the Future

    Send us a text Welcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. This week we hit three big themes: A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI eraCanada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good tradeWe also detour into China vs U.S. economics, data centers, energy constraints, and whether AI is still early innings… or closer to a dot-com style reckoning. Not financial advice. Entertainment only. Chapters 00:00 Cold open — “Delete this, lawyer”  01:10 HBO/Warner merger market: Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL  12:40 AI + IP licensing (why libraries matter)  20:30 Canada recession bet: how it resolves + why it might hit  31:10 U.S. recession odds + tariffs + supply chain uncertainty  40:20 AI bubble “burst” market: what would need to happen  52:10 Venezuela tanker seizure bet: why another one won’t happen this year  58:30 2028 election odds: Kamala “sprinkle,” Newsom skepticism, who announces early  1:06:30 Wrap + year-end recap teaser

    47 min

  5. 09/12/2025

    #12. The PolyMarket Meta War: Whales, UMA, and Angry Degens

    Send us a text In Episode 12 of the Poly Marks Podcast, the brothers get meta. Joel, Matt, and Andrew start with updates on their Venezuela and alien bets.  From there, they pivot into Epstein file bets, what counts as “substantive information,” whether financial crimes count, and why almost-unanimous Congressional pressure makes Joel bullish that something will be released—even if it’s disappointingly redacted. We then dive deep into the weird mechanics of resolving PolyMarket markets—especially the controversial “Will PolyMarket go live in the US in 2025?” contract. They break down how UMA token holders effectively act as referees, why whales have an incentive to flood resolution votes to protect million-dollar positions, and whether that feels fair compared to something like Kalshi’s more centralized “council” model.

    44 min

  6. 28/11/2025

    #11. Unidentified Alpha Phenomena: Venezuela, Canada, and UAP Bets

    Send us a text Matt hosts (!) as the crew returns from a short break with real profits, a few scars, and some spicy new markets: longest U.S. shutdown (win), Canada tariff odds (still climbing), Venezuela regime change vs. kinetic strikes, Alberta separatist referendum probability, and a detour to whether Trump or Rubio will force UAP/“alien” disclosures. Betting philosophy sprinkled throughout: bank early gains, size small on longshots, and exploit thin markets.

    50 min

  7. 23/10/2025

    Ep. 10 - Hall-Marks & Mint-Marks

    Send us a text  The Poly Marks crew debates whether the U.S. shutdown becomes the longest ever—and when to take profits before one Schumer headline nukes the price. Then: Trump–Putin meeting odds, Zelensky talks, and Venezuela—kinetic strike or cold deal? A rapid-fire macro round pits ETH vs. gold (debasement, adoption, ATHs), plus Canada’s election/budget gambit and U.S. race tidbits. Strategy theme: buy value, sell the spike, and mind the rules. Markets move; don’t get Marked.

    48 min

  8. 11/10/2025

    Ep 9. House of the Patri-Mark

    Send us a text The Poly Marks boys welcome their first guest — their dad — for a full family breakdown of Polymarket. They dive into how the platform works, why it beats traditional betting, and what “no house edge” really means. Then it’s into the week’s action: Nobel leaks, Trump’s peace-prize odds, Venezuela tension, Hamas ceasefire bets, and a Canada corner on recession risks and rate cuts. Legal disclaimers, family riffs, and a few humble brag/soul-crush trade recaps included.

    40 min
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About

Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

Information

  • Creator
    Andrew, Matt, and Joel
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    16
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Poly Marks
  • Show Website
    Poly Marks