Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. לפני 4 שע׳

    The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market

    Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today. Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a detailed look at how a professional trader navigates uncertainty. Spectra Markets https://www.spectramarkets.com Topics covered: Why stocks need a steady stream of bad news to go down and what drives rallies The impact of constant policy shocks on volatility, positioning, and mean reversion How to distinguish structural trends from short-term trading opportunities The “wall of worry” and why markets can ignore negative headlines The importance of Mag 7 earnings and concentration in today’s market How traders use reassessment triggers like the 200-day moving average The complexity of central bank reactions to oil shocks and inflation Why bonds still matter as a recession hedge despite recent correlation breakdowns How positioning—not fundamentals—drives moves in the U.S. dollar Gold, silver, and Bitcoin through the lens of flows, retail behavior, and debasement The role of overconfidence and risk management in trading success Brent’s journaling process and how writing clarifies thinking How to identify asymmetric trades using potential headline scenarios Why edges in markets are temporary and require constant adaptation Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:05 Government policy shocks and market impact 05:10 Volatility, shocks, and trading frameworks 09:05 Why the economy remains resilient despite rate hikes 13:05 Market concentration and the importance of big tech earnings 16:05 The “steady stream of bad news” framework for stocks 18:30 Using the 200-day moving average and pattern recognition 22:10 Central banks, oil shocks, and inflation dynamics 24:35 Stocks vs bonds and the 60/40 portfolio outlook 26:05 Why dollar moves depend on positioning, not narratives 30:55 Gold, silver, and the retail-driven momentum cycle 34:05 The debasement trade and long-term gold thesis 38:10 Rationality vs overconfidence in trading 41:05 Risk management, journaling, and avoiding blowups 46:00 Thinking in probabilities, positioning, and market expectations 50:55 Journaling as a tool for clarity and discipline 55:00 Why traders lose discipline when over-earning 59:10 Brent’s new book and evolving trading frameworks 01:03:30 Where to find Brent and closing thoughts

    שעה אחת ו-5 דקות

  2. לפני יומיים (2)

    The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide

    Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders. Follow Liz Ann on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy Why the US being a “net energy exporter” doesn’t protect investors The hidden bear market beneath index-level resilience Rotation vs. correction and what it means for portfolios The rise of retail traders and the shift away from “dumb money” Why better or worse data matters more than good or bad data The K-shaped economy and its impact on consumption and markets AI’s three phases and its real impact on jobs and productivity Why this earnings season may be more important than usual The shifting role of the Mag 7 and broader market participation Why the bond market may be the true driver of equities Risks in credit markets and what investors should watch Labor market dynamics and challenges for younger workers How investors and young professionals should think about AI Timestamps 00:00 Intro and current market environment 04:05 Why the US isn’t immune to oil price shocks 05:35 Lessons from past oil shocks and inflation 07:22 Why markets seem resilient despite macro risks 08:00 The hidden drawdowns beneath the index surface 10:13 Rolling recessions and sector-level weakness 10:37 Are investors conditioned to buy every dip 12:58 What happens when the dip doesn’t get bought 14:36 Valuations, corrections, and market structure 15:12 Sentiment analysis in a new market regime 18:50 Retail investors outperforming institutions 20:08 Better or worse vs good or bad economic data 23:00 How markets anticipate economic turning points 25:22 Understanding the K-shaped economy 28:00 Wealth effects and risks from equity declines 29:09 AI as a transformative force vs macro risks 30:00 The three phases of AI development 33:04 Why this earnings season matters more 34:00 Earnings revisions and sector concentration 36:00 The future of Mag 7 leadership vs the rest of the market 38:00 Contribution vs performance in index returns 40:00 Sector sensitivity to inflation and supply chains 42:00 Fundamentals vs speculation in small caps 44:21 The Fed’s dilemma in an oil shock environment 48:00 Why the bond market is driving equities 50:05 Credit markets and systemic risk signals 53:26 Lessons from past bond market dislocations 54:19 Labor market challenges and younger workers 57:00 Career advice in the age of AI 59:26 How Liz Ann uses AI in her research process 01:01:00 Closing thoughts and where to follow Liz Ann

    שעה אחת ו-5 דקות

  3. לפני 4 ימים

    The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next

    This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect. We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/ Topics Covered: Why war is inherently inflationary and how it strains the productive economy The difference between measured economic stability and underlying systemic risks How inflation shifted from a wartime phenomenon to a permanent feature of modern monetary policy The Fed’s 2% inflation target as a structural form of currency debasement Lessons from the 1970s inflation and oil shocks vs. today’s environment Why inflation is a ratchet that erodes purchasing power over time The importance of trust in credit markets and growing risks in private credit structures Public debt, Treasury market dynamics, and early signs of strain in government financing Historical parallels between AI investment and past technological booms like the internet The role of gold as a hedge against (and investment in) monetary instability The durability of the US dollar despite long-term structural concerns Why investing is always difficult in the present—even when it looks obvious in hindsight Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on the true causes of inflation 04:04 Why war drives sustained inflation and current geopolitical risks 08:00 Historical perspective on inflation before the 1970s 12:00 Oil shocks, Volcker, and lessons from past inflation cycles 16:00 Why inflation never reverses and purchasing power declines 20:00 Trust in markets and the foundation of credit systems 24:00 Private credit risks and the modern credit cycle 28:00 Public debt, Treasury markets, and fiscal sustainability concerns 32:00 Treasury auctions, yields, and early warning signs in bonds 35:25 AI capex boom and lessons from past technological bubbles 38:17 Air conditioning, internet bubbles, and delayed economic payoffs 40:00 The Fed, Treasury, and hidden financial interdependence 44:14 Asset allocation, gold, and monetary disruption 48:44 The dollar’s strength and global dominance 53:41 Why investing is always difficult in real time 59:00 Advice on markets, newsletters, and enduring uncertainty

    שעה אחת ו-3 דקות

  4. לפני 5 ימים

    The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

    Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move. They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration. Topics covered: Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside Timestamps: 00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:https://spotgamma.com Follow Brent on Twitter:https://twitter.com/spotgamma

    שעה אחת ו-9 דקות

  5. 9 באפר׳

    The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype

    This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape. Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain critical even in the most exciting growth environments. Hype vs High Conviction https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/hype-vs-high-conviction_insights/ Topics Covered: Why AI may be the most important investment decision today The four-layer AI stack: applications, LLMs, hyperscalers, and infrastructure Why investors confuse secular trends with investable opportunities Following the money through the AI value chain The hidden risks of investing lower in the stack Why today’s tech leaders differ from the dot-com era Growth vs maintenance capex and what it means for AI economics Why software may be more resilient than markets think How GMO defines “quality” and why it matters in volatile markets Portfolio construction: where GMO is investing (and avoiding) in AI Timestamps:00:00 Intro and framing the AI investment debate00:00:55 Tom Hancock background and focus on quality investing00:02:00 What investors are getting wrong about AI00:03:23 Breaking down the four layers of the AI ecosystem00:06:45 Applications vs infrastructure: where value may accrue00:08:45 Why predicting AI winners is still difficult00:11:00 Following the cash flows through the AI stack00:13:00 Why AI funding is more stable than past tech bubbles00:16:00 Big Tech strategy differences and capital allocation decisions00:17:34 Are today’s tech companies higher quality than in 1999?00:19:00 Growth vs maintenance capex and implications for Nvidia and others00:22:00 Depreciation, chip lifecycles, and hidden risks in capex assumptions00:24:00 Capital intensity vs quality: when heavy investment is a feature00:27:00 Why incumbents may benefit most from AI00:28:30 Risks in the LLM layer and potential commoditization00:30:10 Software disruption fears: overdone or justified?00:34:06 Defining “quality” in investing00:36:00 Balance sheets vs return on capital00:38:32 Why GMO sold Oracle and the risks of leverage00:40:18 What happens if AI spending slows down00:41:35 Where the biggest risks are in the AI stack00:44:26 Where GMO is positioned vs the S&P 50000:48:00 How new ideas enter a quality portfolio00:51:00 Sell discipline and portfolio turnover00:53:00 International vs US quality investing

    ‏59 דק׳

  6. 8 באפר׳

    The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time

    This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next. Paulsen Perspectives Substackhttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com Topics Covered Why the recent oil spike hasn’t impacted inflation and interest rates as expected Slowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do next The Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economy Private credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crises Why many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bear The role of sentiment, volatility, and uncertainty in driving market returns Market rotation from mega-cap “new era” stocks to broader market leadership Corporate profits divergence and the opportunity in the rest of the economy Liquidity, cash levels, and positioning as potential fuel for markets Productivity trends and whether AI-driven gains are real or overstated Timestamps00:00 Intro and current macro backdrop01:05 Oil spike and limited impact on yields and inflation04:45 Growth outlook and why recession may still be avoided07:10 Fed policy and the stagflation question10:15 Walmart vs luxury retail indicator explained13:40 Private credit stress vs traditional credit cycles17:00 Why this isn’t 2008 and how balance sheets differ19:50 Private credit risks and market spillover effects22:15 Bear market fears vs signs of a new bull23:45 Consumer confidence and its impact on returns25:05 Oil spikes historically as buy signals26:15 VIX, volatility, and market bottoms27:05 Yield curve steepening and market implications28:05 Sentiment indicators and what they really reflect30:00 Market rotation and broadening beyond mega caps32:45 Passing the baton from tech to broader markets35:15 Corporate profits divergence and future potential37:00 Policy uncertainty and why it can be bullish42:05 Liquidity, cash levels, and risk allocation43:20 Options positioning and put-call signals44:05 Gold vs commodities and risk appetite45:10 Consumer credit contraction and market signals46:20 Polymarket recession probabilities as sentiment47:30 Economic sentiment collapse and contrarian signals48:10 Interest rate expectations and positioning49:05 Unemployment trends and historical market bottoms50:25 Productivity trends and AI impact on the economy

    שעה אחת

  7. 6 באפר׳

    The Inevitability No One Sees | $11 Billion Tech Manager on What Investors Miss About AI

    This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and disruption risk. Tony explains why AI is fundamentally changing the cost of intelligence, how agentic systems could reshape software and labor markets, and why the current AI buildout may differ from past tech cycles. The discussion also dives into where we are in the AI cycle, how to think about the Mag 7, and what investors may be missing across the tech stack. T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/science-and-technology-fund.htmlTopics Covered What it means to invest in “inevitabilities” and separating signal from noise in markets Why AI and compute demand represent a structural shift similar to past tech waves The rise of agentic AI and how it could transform software and productivity Whether AI is underappreciated or already priced into markets The “multiple moons” idea and why AI may not be a winner-take-all market How AI could reshape the labor market, productivity, and economic growth The AI CapEx debate and why this cycle may differ from the dot-com buildout Where we are in the AI cycle: training vs inferencing and deployment phase The impact of AI on software companies and the innovator’s dilemma How semiconductors, memory, and infrastructure remain key bottlenecks The changing nature of the Mag 7 and capital intensity in AI Tony’s portfolio construction framework across compounders, emerging tech, and value How he generates ideas using S-curve adoption and economic bottlenecks Position sizing, risk management, and balancing growth with drawdown control Sell discipline: valuation, fundamentals, and market signals Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Tony Wang overview 01:05 Investing in inevitabilities and long-term thinking 03:00 Differentiating inevitability from hype and consensus 04:45 AI inevitability and the rise of agentic systems 07:00 Cost of intelligence and productivity implications 08:00 Real-world examples of AI adoption (customer service, agents) 09:00 Is AI underappreciated by markets? 11:15 AI as a “space race with multiple moons” 13:30 AI as the dominant driver of markets today 15:00 AI’s impact on jobs, productivity, and the economy 18:30 Creativity, judgment, and the future of work 20:45 Physical AI and robotics opportunity set 22:30 AI CapEx debate vs the dot-com era 25:30 Semiconductors vs software in the AI stack 28:15 AI disruption risk for software companies 31:00 Cyclicality in semiconductors and how AI changes it 33:30 The evolving role of the Mag 7 in AI 36:30 Competition, startups, and AI democratization 38:00 Where we are in the AI cycle today 40:00 Idea generation and S-curve adoption framework 42:30 Case study: memory and AI bottlenecks 44:45 Example position: optical networking and infrastructure 46:40 Portfolio construction and position sizing 49:00 Sell discipline and managing valuation risk

    שעה אחת ו-3 דקות

  8. 3 באפר׳

    The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

    This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next. We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework. More on Katie's Strategies https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/ Topics Covered: Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025 What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal 08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities 12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle 16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice 20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership 24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios 27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics 32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals 36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation 39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy 44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next 47:00 Key signals to watch going forward

    ‏49 דק׳
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

מידע

  • יוצרים
    Excess Returns
  • שנות פעילות
    2019 - 2026
  • פרקים
    493
  • סיווג
    תוכן הולם
  • זכויות יוצרים
    © 905628
  • אתר התכנית
    Excess Returns

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