Kontrarian Korner

Ben Kelleran
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Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

  1. Kontrarian Korner #90 - Veles

    6 DAYS AGO

    Kontrarian Korner #90 - Veles

    Yesterday I had Veles back on the podcast for the first time since last March, and it was one of the rare episodes that I listened to the whole thing while editing it last night. We obviously talked about recent events in the Middle East, but he made a compelling case that both sides are pulling punches by refraining from destroying electricity infrastructure and desalination plants. If you want a podcast that talks about the different competing factions of the elite and the birth of a new economic system, among other topics, this is the one for you. You can find Veles on RogueNews, where I also have a weekly show. Podcast Summary * Why some of the recent chaos in the Middle East is an opportunity to clean house for some of the governments. * The US and Iran pulling their punches, despite all of the infrastructure that has been damaged or destroyed. If it was total war, we would have already seen power infrastructure and desalination plants being hit. * The “laundry fire” on the USS Ford, and how it is out of commission for over a year for repairs. * Why it is near impossible to know exactly what is happening on the ground right now with the propaganda flying in all directions. * Why Iran has been heavily targeting GCC countries instead of focusing as heavily on Israel. * The importance of Kharg Island and Iran’s distributed network approach to launching missiles and drones. * The problems with putting boots on the ground, and why we won’t know all of the details about the US strategy for years. * Why Congress has to get involved at the 30 day mark of the conflict (9-10 days from now) * How the conflict with Iran is targeting the London Corporation, and it’s not just Israeli influence. * The economic systems breaking down and how we have all been caught up in the competition between the different elite factions over the last decade. * Why the layoffs at major corporations are not driven by AI (at least for now) and how it will push down the value of labor and certain goods and/or services. Physical assets are the only thing that are immune. * How we could see western Canada break away from the eastern part, and what that would mean for the US and the City of London. * Why we could see the global economy moving away from a system of scarcity, and building out the power grid with nuclear. * Why AI data centers need nuclear power as much as nuclear power needs the data centers, and how some of the companies building these operations have used the buildout to secure water rights. * The difference between world models and language learning models. * How the US is planning to lock down the sphere of influence across North and South America, and what it means for trade, tariffs, and our Navy patrolling global shipping lanes. * Why the US is planning to remove ourselves from the Middle East, after some resolution is reached in the current conflict. * How the US move on Venezuela has cut Cuba off from oil, and what that means for Cuba moving forward. * Why the international debt load is unsustainable and monetization is coming, and why CBDCs are one path for that. * The importance of having a turbulent period before a new economic model can be put in place, and why the conflict with Iran is one phase in that period. * Why major economic and financial market events tend to happen in October, and why physical assets is where he is hiding out. * The importance of having physical books and DVDs because moving forward online information or content might not be reliable. * Book Recommendations: Beyond Atlantis: Vestiges of the World’s Lost Civilizations by Mark Carlotto & Entitled: The Rise and Fall of the House of York by Andrew Lownie. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 51min
  2. Kontrarian Korner #89 - Dave Collum

    22 MAR

    Kontrarian Korner #89 - Dave Collum

    On Friday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to rant about the state of the world and everything that has been going on lately. It’s been too long since I had him on the podcast and it was fun to chat with him about the situation in the Middle East, the competition between factions going on in the Trump administration, and the structural problems with financial markets. We were able to mix in some optimism on a couple topics despite all of the crap that is flying around lately, but for anyone interested in the intersection of current events, conspiracies, and markets, this one is for you. You can find Dave on Twitter (and under his desk, as he likes to say). Podcast Summary * The Joe Kent departure and his podcast with Tucker Carlson and how it shows some of the competing factions inside the Trump administration. * The legitimacy issues that our institutions are facing. * How social media accelerates narrative changes, the divisions in society, and identity politics. * The various psyops and conspiracies, including if Netanyahu and other prominent Israeli leadership are actually dead, and how the shelf life of conspiracies is getting shorter and shorter. * Why he thinks we have already crossed the Rubicon in Iran and Israel as far as causing serious problems for energy markets and supply chains. * How targeting desalination plants could lead to a collapse very quickly. * The potential for US boots on the ground, and why it makes sense to prepare and stockpile food and other things with some of the supply chain problems we could see. * The structural problems with the hyperfinancialization of the economy and markets, private equity and private credit, and other things that need to be fixed. * How the US needs to significantly change the economic system and incentives, and why he thinks things need to wash out first. * The economic distortions that have happened over the last several decades. * Why real estate needs to get cheaper by price instead of trying to manipulate affordability by lowering rates. * His thoughts on the precious metals selloff and where there might be opportunities. * The technological changes coming for the financial system and how we have been resisting creative destruction. * Book Recommendation: Rage In The Republic by Jonathan Turley Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 49min
  3. Kontrarian Korner #88 - Moritz Bierling

    10 MAR

    Kontrarian Korner #88 - Moritz Bierling

    Yesterday I had Moritz Bierling on the podcast for the first time. We talked about the competing elite factions, how the conflict between the US and the British Empire has evolved, and where the world will go from here. He also got into the importance of having a positive vision for the system that should be built, and several other civilizational and cultural topics that are top of mind for anyone paying attention to the rapid changes that have been happening since 2020. It was a great conversation for anyone interested in the high level view for where the West is headed over the next couple decades. You can find Moritz on his website, Modern Minuteman, and on Twitter. Podcast Summary * The different groups in the upper class, and how they are distinct and what incentives they have. * The competing elite factions, and the different groups in the US and Europe. * How the remnants of the British Empire have used soft power and influence after WWII. * Why the right wing has to develop a positive view of what should replace the current system. * How the conflict between the US and Britain has changed since the Revolution. * The deterioration across the West after WWII, and how losing a huge portion of that generation’s men in the war has had ripple effects that we feel today. * Why it’s important for people to understand the history and the cultural and legal foundations of their civilization. * The problems with the legal system, and how people should examine the local court system to see where some of the problems are in their area. * How 2020 and COVID is the dividing line from the before times, and how the Overton Window has been shifting rapidly in recent years. * Elon Musk, the connections between the technology companies and the existing power structure, and how he has the potential to be the first of this generation’s robber barons. * Book Recommendation: Tribal Future Of The West by Mike Maxwell. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 14min
  4. Kontrarian Korner #87 - Craig Tindale

    4 MAR

    Kontrarian Korner #87 - Craig Tindale

    Yesterday I had Craig Tindale on the podcast for the first time. For anyone interested in commodity and physical supply chains, it’s a must listen. We dove into the recent events in Iran and their impact on supply chains (not just for energy), and how insurance plays a role in global shipping markets. We also talked about China’s Unrestricted Warfare approach to global commodity supply chains and refining, and what the US needs to do to catch up. Then we spent some time on bottlenecks for the AI and data center buildout, and which commodities investors should keep an eye on with everything going on. You can find Craig on Twitter, and his Substack is below. Podcast Summary * The recent events in Iran, the impact on global supply chains, and how the Strait of Hormuz is kind of the jugular vein of the global trade system. * How the global trade system has gotten more complex over the last several decades, and where that leaves us with the West trying to decouple some of these systems from China. * The shipping insurance industry and the US DFC plans to step in to insure ships traveling through the Strait. * The massive copper demand for building data centers and transmission lines, and the bottlenecks in the West for copper production and the smelting/refining capacity. * How the Chinese have used economic warfare to take control of several important supply chains over the last couple decades, and how that has hollowed out industrial capacity across the West. * How the economic models we currently use can be improved and connected to the real economy. * The AI CAPEX boom, and how the companies involved don’t know if they will see a return on that investment over the next five years. * How Nvidia could run into issues with their new chips as far as deployment and the supply chains for the metal inputs. * Why he’s watching silver, and how you could have a hierarchy of demand with what price different customers are willing to pay. * How Western commodity markets evolved as paper and derivative markets, while the Chinese markets are designed for physical delivery. * Some of the different applications for rare earths, and how the US could address the bottlenecks we currently face. * How the financial economy is extractive of the material economy, and why the material economy is way more important than the financial economy. * Book Recommendation: Secret of the Veda by Sri Aurobindo. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 6min

  5. 1 MAR

    Andina Copper Deep Dive w/ Jordan Webster

    Yesterday I had Jordan Webster (Geólogo Trader 🇦🇺) on the podcast for the first time to discuss Andina Copper, where he is VP of Technical Communications. He has a background as a geologist in Australia before moving to Argentina several years ago. We got into each of the company’s assets and the exploration plans they have, along with some of the recent drill results and assays that are pending. We also talked about the recent financing that was upsized. You can find Jordan’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter. The podcast will be available to everyone on Sunday morning. Podcast Summary * How Jordan ended up in Argentina and how he got involved with Andina Copper. * The 30,000 foot view of the company and how they acquired Rugby Resources. * The Cobrasco Project in Colombia. * The logistics involved in restarting exploration in an area of Colombia that is isolated in the jungle. * Recent drill results, the assays pending, and the geology in the area. * How the area is very underexplored, and the benefits of having Rio Tinto as a neighbor. * The Piuquenes Project in Argentina. * Closeology to Aldebaran’s Altar deposit, and other nearby projects. * Recent drill results, the assays pending, and the geology in the area. * What they have done at the project during this drill season, and how the snow limits access to the project. * The different parts of the project in the North, Central, and East sections. * The Mantau Project in Chile. * Closeology to Marimaca’s project, other nearby projects, and the existing infrastructure that is nearby. * Why they are focusing primarily on the other two projects for now. * The recent financing that was upsized from $20M to $27.5M, and how it sets the company up for the next year. * Podcast Recommendation: The History of the Grasberg Mine. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    55 min
  6. Kontrarian Korner #86 - Jason Perz

    24 FEB

    Kontrarian Korner #86 - Jason Perz

    Yesterday I had Jason Perz on the podcast for the first time, and we discussed the different trends going on in the financial markets. We talked about the commodities complex and which areas he finds most appealing right now, along with the reasons to avoid large cap tech and bonds as we move through this inflationary regime. It was a fun conversation and I’ll definitely be having him back on to discuss how these trends have developed over time. You can find him on Twitter, Substack, along with his YouTube. Podcast Summary * The changing investment environment and what it means for stocks, bonds, and commodities. * The concentration in megacap tech stocks, and how it mirrors past cycles. * How rising energy prices create issues for the broader equity market, and why he thinks the trend for the sector is just getting started. * The different things to look for when it comes to news failures and mean reversion, and how that feeds into a setup for a trade. * How sector equities moving ahead of a commodity signify risk on for that sector. * The gold to oil ratio and why he thinks it will rubber band back to something closer to a historical relative valuation. * Why the trend in the precious metals complex has time to run, and why we could see the move in the miners continue from here. * Copper being one of the biggest opportunities right now, and why he prefers to get exposure through the major ETFs. * Why nickel has the most upside out of all the industrial metals, and why he avoids the LME. * His exposure in the uranium space, and why his current exposure is in the juniors. * Agricultural commodities being the next space to move. * Book Recommendation: The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1 hr
  7. Kontrarian Korner #85 - Giacomo Prandelli

    17 FEB

    Kontrarian Korner #85 - Giacomo Prandelli

    Yesterday I had Giacomo Prandelli on my podcast for the first time. He has an interesting vantage point as a commodities trader in Switzerland when it comes to geopolitics and commodities markets. We talked about the geopolitical chessboard and the tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. We also got into the commodities complex and talked about where he sees opportunities and why it’s important to look at the global picture for each commodity. You can find him on Substack, Linkedin, and Twitter. Podcast Summary * The setup for the geopolitical chessboard, and the increasing tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. * Why he doesn’t think Europe will prioritize the production capabilities for oil, gas, and other commodities, and the fragility of European supply chains. * Why copper and oil are top of mind for him right now. * How he occasionally expresses a view on a certain commodity with directional exposure. * Why it’s important to look at the global picture for the different commodities. * Why he pays attention to shipping, and why he thinks the rising rates in certain subsectors is more due to geopolitical factors than rising demand. * His view on the precious metals complex. * Opportunities in smaller commodities that are off the radar, including nickel and rare earths. * Book Recommendations: The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli and The World For Sale by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1hr 6min
  8. Transocean Acquires Valaris

    16 FEB

    Transocean Acquires Valaris

    Yesterday I had Tommy Lee on the podcast to talk about Transocean’s $RIG acquisition of Valaris $VAL . For anyone interested in energy, Tommy is an expert on the deepwater subsector of offshore oil services, and we dove into the transaction, how it deleverages RIG’s balance sheet, and the potential synergies between the two fleets. We also talked about other subsectors of offshore oil services, but our conversation was a good look at the transaction and where the sector is headed over the next several years. You can find Tommy on Twitter, but he’s also working on a service over at Deepwater Insight that he is close to launching. He also has his Substack that is definitely worth a follow. The podcast will be for paid subscribers for now, but it will be available to everyone on Sunday morning. Podcast Summary * How this transaction deleverages the balance sheet for Transocean, and accelerates the potential for capital returns. * Why he doesn’t think the transaction will lead to problems with antitrust issues. * The synergies between the two fleets, and why the estimated cost savings might be a little high. * How the jackup fleet fits into the new company, and why they might look to sell some or all of the fleet in the future. * The view on day rates, new builds, future scrapping, and the potential for more consolidation in the future. * The jackup market and what it means for Borr, and some color on what is going on in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. * OSVs, Tidewater, and expectation for M&A in that sector. * Seismic, subsea equipment manufacturing, and other overlooked opportunities in and around the offshore oil services sector. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    54 min
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About

Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

Information

  • Creator
    Ben Kelleran
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    120
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Kontrarian Korner
  • Show Website
    Kontrarian Korner

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