The LOWDOWN

Joshua Patten
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The LOWDOWN is an independent open-source intelligence (OSINT situational awareness report) covering competition, conflict, and coercive activity involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Western Hemisphere. lowdownosint.substack.com

  1. Dual Carriers to Iran, Russia’s Nuclear Posture in Belarus, PLA Taiwan Build-Up, Cuba Blackouts, and the 2036 Multipolar Forecast

    1 DAY AGO

    Dual Carriers to Iran, Russia’s Nuclear Posture in Belarus, PLA Taiwan Build-Up, Cuba Blackouts, and the 2036 Multipolar Forecast

    This week’s LOWDOWN examines accelerating global competition across military, economic, and technological domains—moving from force posture shifts in the Middle East to nuclear signaling in Eastern Europe and sustained pressure around Taiwan. Iran & the Middle East:The Pentagon reinforces regional posture as the USS Gerald R. Ford deploys to join a second carrier strike group, contingency planning expands toward sustained operations, the Air Force moves to replenish Massive Ordnance Penetrators used in 2025 strikes, and new tanker self-defense concepts emerge. The Marine Corps fields lower-cost counter-drone capabilities while Iran rejects missile negotiations amid mounting U.S. signaling. Russia & Europe:Satellite imagery indicates a possible Russian Oreshnik missile presence in Belarus. Estonia assesses NATO deterrence is holding—even as Moscow scales ammunition production to roughly seven million rounds annually and reorganizes around drone-centric warfare. Reports highlight consolidation of Russia’s Su-57 fleet near China, Algeria’s apparent receipt of Su-57 fighters, European findings regarding Navalny’s death, Kremlin discussions of potential dollar-settlement realignment, and Russian hybrid recruitment through gaming platforms. China, Taiwan & Asia:PLA modernization targeting Taiwan continues despite leadership turbulence, with expanded amphibious and unmanned capabilities. Japan detains a Chinese fishing vessel inside its EEZ, South Korea signals possible dynastic succession developments in Pyongyang, and a Section 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms is abruptly withdrawn. Software-defined electronic warfare systems demonstrate jammer geolocation without new hardware. Western Hemisphere:Satellite analysis shows Cuban nighttime illumination down as much as 50% following halted oil shipments. The Pentagon’s reported operational use of Anthropic’s Claude AI during the Maduro capture raises policy friction. NORAD conducts an F-16 intercept during a presidential TFR violation. Technology & Force Development:The Navy and DIU seek long-range strike drones capable of 600 nautical mile combat radius. Directed-energy research resurfaces in AHI debates. A 2,400-square-foot phased-array satellite deploys in LEO for direct-to-smartphone connectivity. Steel Knight 25 advances distributed kill web concepts under contested logistics. Foundational Lens — Atlantic Council’s “Welcome to 2036”:We close by framing today’s developments against the Atlantic Council’s expert forecast: a more multipolar world, China’s economic rise, enduring U.S. military dominance, expanding nuclear risk, and intensifying technology-driven competition. The pattern is clear: carrier deployments, missile production, gray-zone operations, AI-enabled warfare, and energy leverage are not isolated headlines—they are indicators of a system trending toward sustained, technologically accelerated, multipolar competition. Full source listing available at: China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Smart Software Cuts Through Electronic Fog And Find Jammers — David Hambling (Forbes) — https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/02/11/smart-software-cuts-through-electronic-fog-and-locates-jammers/ — On Feb. 11, 2026, David Hambling reports that Tenna Systems is fielding a software-first electronic warfare solution that aggregates RF telemetry from existing radios and devices to map interference, geolocate jammers within roughly 25 meters, and enable adaptive filtering without new hardware. * As Diplomats Talk, Pentagon Prepares for Possible War With Iran — Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/us/politics/trump-iran-pentagon.html — On Feb. 13, 2026, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt report that the Pentagon is rebuilding offensive and defensive force posture in the Middle East, including carrier strike groups, destroyers, missile defenses, and aircraft, while diplomatic talks with Iran continue. * Targeting Taiwan Under Xi: China’s Military Forest Flourishing Despite Toppling Trees — Andrew S. Erickson (Harvard Fairbank Center) — https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/research/blog/targeting-taiwan-under-xi-chinas-military-forest-flourishing-despite-toppling-trees/ — Published Feb. 12, 2026, Andrew S. Erickson assesses that despite senior leadership purges, the PLA continues advancing Taiwan-focused capabilities, conducting large-scale exercises, missile tests, and maritime mobilization consistent with 2027 warfighting objectives. * China & Taiwan Update — Institute for the Study of War – China Desk (ISW-CDOT) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-13-2026/ — On Feb. 13, 2026, ISW reports continued PLA expansion of amphibious and unmanned capabilities, U.S. legislative moves to deepen Taiwan cooperation, and regional political developments affecting cross-strait security dynamics. * Kim Jong Un’s daughter close to being designated future leader, says spy agency — The Associated Press (NPR) — https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/g-s1-109778/kim-jong-uns-daughter-close-to-being-designated-future-leader-says-spy-agency — On Feb. 12, 2026, the Associated Press reports that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service assessed Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter is nearing formal designation as North Korea’s successor. * Japan seizes Chinese fishing boat and arrests skipper — Reuters (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/japan-seizes-chinese-fishing-boat-arrests-skipper-rcna258882 — On Feb. 12, 2026, Japanese authorities seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested its captain for allegedly ignoring inspection orders inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone off Nagasaki prefecture. * Chinese Company Names Suddenly “Withdrawn” From Federal US Government List — Nick Mordowanec (Military.com) — https://www.military.com/daily-news/2026/02/13/chinese-company-names-suddenly-withdrawn-federal-us-government-list.html — On February 13, 2026, a Federal Register notice marked as withdrawn a recently submitted Section 1260H list identifying Chinese military companies, including reported additions such as Alibaba and Baidu, after an agency letter requested its removal following public inspection placement. Russia and Europe * Satellite Imagery Points To Possible Russian Oreshnik Missile Site In Belarus — RFE/RL’s Belarus Service (RFE/RL) — https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-russian-missile-deployment-satellite-imagery/33675391.html — On Feb. 11, 2026, RFE/RL reports satellite imagery indicating possible deployment of Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system at a site near Krychau, Belarus, following rapid construction and arrival of launcher-sized vehicles. * ‘We’ll Have to Use Carrier Pigeons’: Russian Troops in Chaos as Telegram, Starlink Cut Off — Alisa Orlova (Kyiv Post) — https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69854 — On Feb. 11, 2026, Alisa Orlova reports Russian frontline forces experienced communications disruptions after Telegram throttling and reported Starlink terminal disablement, affecting coordination and operations. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2026/ — On Feb. 13, 2026, ISW assesses Russian territorial demands in peace talks, ongoing offensive operations with limited advances, economic strain indicators, and continued missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. * Why Is Russia Hiding Nearly Entire Su-57 Stealth Fleet at Remote Base Near China — Ivan Khomenko (United24) — https://united24media.com/latest-news/why-is-russia-hiding-nearly-entire-su-57-stealth-fleet-at-remote-base-near-china-15802 — Published Feb. 11, 2026, Ivan Khomenko reports satellite imagery showing most operational Su-57 fighters concentrated at Dzyomgi airbase near China, likely for protection and proximity to the manufacturing plant. * Joint Statement by the UK, Sweden, France, Germany and The Netherlands on Alexei Navalny’s death — Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP (UK Government) — https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-uk-sweden-france-germany-and-the-netherlands-on-alexei-navalnys-death — On Feb. 14, 2026, five European governments stated they concluded Alexei Navalny was poisoned with epibatidine and notified the OPCW of what they describe as a Russian breach of international conventions. * Estonian spies believe Europe’s collective deterrence push is working — Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/11/estonian-spies-believe-europes-collective-deterrence-push-is-working/ — Published February 11, 2026, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that Russia is unlikely to attack NATO within two years while warning that Moscow has expanded ammunition production to roughly seven million rounds annually and reorganized forces around large-scale drone integration. * Russian stealth jets have arrived in North Africa, as filmed by Algerian potato farmer — Linus Höller (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/10/russian-stealth-jets-have-arrived-in-north-africa-as-filmed-by-algerian-potato-farmer/ — Published February 10, 2026, open-source video near Oum El Bouaghi Air Base appears to confirm Algeria has received Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighters, with prior reports indicating an order of 12 aircraft and 14 Su-34 fighter-bombers. * Russia may return to US dollar settlement system in Trump deal: what the proposed US-Russia economic partnership includes and is BRICS de-dollarization now a dead game? — Piyush Shukla (The Economic Times) — https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/russia-may-return-to-us-dollar-settlement-system-in-trump-deal-what-the-propo

    26 min

  2. 3 DAYS AGO

    Russia Tightens RuNet as Ukraine Strikes Deep, PLA Leadership Purges Expand, Iran Missile Talks Stall, and U.S. Counter-Drone Laser Triggers El Paso Airspace Shutdown

    This episode of The LOWDOWN examines accelerating stress signals across multiple theaters, from Russian information control measures and Ukrainian deep strikes to elite instability inside the People’s Liberation Army, conditional Iranian missile diplomacy, and a U.S. domestic airspace disruption tied to counter-drone laser use. Russia and Europe:The Kremlin intensifies control over the Russian information space, restricting Telegram, WhatsApp, and other Western platforms through the sovereign RuNet system as Lavrov reiterates Moscow’s unchanged maximalist war aims. Ukrainian forces conduct localized counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhia border while striking high-value targets inside Russia, including a GRAU arsenal in Volgograd Oblast and the Ukhta Oil Refinery in Komi Republic. Meanwhile, occupation authorities accelerate child and property re-registration deadlines, and regional fiscal strain surfaces as Orenburg secures a rare horizontal subsidy to fund military recruitment bonuses. The UK and Netherlands expand air defense and F-16 support to Ukraine. China, North Korea, and Asia:The PLA high command remains unsettled following senior purges, leaving the Central Military Commission hollowed and the Joint Staff Department leadership uncertain. Defense Minister Dong Jun emerges as a leading contender for elevation as Xi Jinping reshapes the top ranks. The CIA launches a Mandarin-language recruitment video targeting corruption grievances within the PLA. North Korea joins Belarus, Russia, Iran, and Myanmar in advancing a “Eurasian Charter” initiative, signaling deeper integration into a Russia-centered bloc. U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command assesses China’s H-20 stealth bomber remains short of true global strike capability. Iran and the Middle East:Tehran signals willingness to discuss ballistic missiles only after a nuclear agreement, while Israeli officials warn of rapid missile stockpile regeneration. President Trump reportedly orders a second carrier strike group, likely USS George H.W. Bush, to spin up for potential Middle East deployment, with earliest on-station arrival projected mid-March. CENTCOM completes the orderly departure from al-Tanf Garrison in Syria while maintaining counter-ISIS strike pressure. Western Hemisphere:The FAA abruptly closes and then reopens El Paso airspace after uncoordinated use of a high-energy LOCUST counter-drone laser near Fort Bliss, exposing interagency coordination gaps. Conflicting narratives emerge regarding cartel drone incursions. Separately, reporting alleges .50 caliber ammunition from the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is reaching Mexican cartels, raising cross-border security concerns. Using John Boyd’s entropy lens from Destruction and Creation, this episode examines where disorder is accumulating beneath surface stability — narrative tightening in Russia, elite fragmentation in the PLA, conditional escalation signaling in Iran, and friction inside U.S. interagency coordination — to assess trajectory rather than headline outcomes. For defense professionals, the focus remains on system health, internal stress signals, and whether actors are adapting — or doubling down. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * North Korea Takes Its Place at ‘Eurasian Charter’ Table — Lee, Rachel Minyoung (38 North) — https://www.38north.org/2026/02/north-korea-takes-its-place-at-eurasian-charter-table/ — Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, and Russia coauthored a February 3, 2026 joint statement launching a consultative process to develop a “Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the XXI Century,” reflecting Pyongyang’s expanding alignment with Moscow-led initiatives. * Leaked technical documents show China rehearsing cyberattacks on neighbors’ critical infrastructure — Recorded Future News (The Record) — https://therecord.media/leaked-china-documents-show-testing-cyber-neighbors — Leaked technical files indicate a Chinese firm developed a state-linked cyber range platform called “Expedition Cloud” to rehearse offensive cyber operations against replicated critical infrastructure networks in the South China Sea and Indochina directions. * Sea Dragon Refits Its Armor: The Type 076 Amphibious Assault Ship Ushers in a New Era — He, Yin (CMSI Translations #26, China Maritime Studies Institute) — https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-translations/34/ — The CMSI translation assesses that China’s Type 076 amphibious assault ship integrates electromagnetic catapult and arresting gear systems to enable fixed-wing aircraft operations, marking a qualitative shift in PLA Navy amphibious and sea-control capabilities. * China ‘Just Not There Yet’ On H-20 Stealth Bomber: Global Strike Command’s Top General — Joseph Trevithick and Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/china-just-not-there-yet-on-h-20-stealth-bomber-global-strike-commands-top-general — USAF Global Strike Command’s Gen. Stephen Davis stated China remains a regional bomber force and has not yet achieved a global strike capability comparable to U.S. stealth bombers despite ongoing H-20 development. * Defense Minister Dong Jun Leading Contender for CMC Seat — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/defense-minister-dong-jun-leading-contender-for-cmc-seat/ — The report assesses that Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun is the leading candidate for elevation to the Central Military Commission following recent purges that hollowed out senior PLA leadership. * Elite Fragmentation and Anxiety in the PLA — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/elite-fragmentation-and-anxiety-in-the-pla/ — The analysis examines institutional strain within the PLA after the removal of senior generals, highlighting leadership vacancies in the CMC and Joint Staff Department and the prioritization of political loyalty. * C.I.A. Video Appeals to Potential Spies in China’s Military — Julian E. Barnes (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/us/politics/cia-china-spies.html — The CIA released a Mandarin-language recruitment video on February 12, 2026 targeting disaffected PLA officers amid ongoing anti-corruption purges within China’s military. * Harnessing the People: Mapping Overseas United Front Work in Democratic States — Cheryl Yu (The Jamestown Foundation) — https://jamestown.org/harnessing-the-people-mapping-overseas-united-front-work-in-democratic-states/ — The report identifies more than 2,000 organizations across four Western democracies with ties to the CCP’s united front system and assesses their role in advancing Beijing’s political and economic objectives abroad. * China lifts veil on secretive underwater combat vehicle at Saudi Arabia defence show — South China Morning Post (SCMP) — https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3343069/china-lifts-veil-secretive-underwater-combat-vehicle-saudi-arabia-defence-show — China unveiled a previously undisclosed underwater combat vehicle at a Saudi defense exhibition, signaling expanded development and export of advanced unmanned naval systems. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2026/ — ISW reported coordinated Kremlin messaging reaffirming maximalist war aims, continued Russian offensive operations, Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, and $4.5 billion in NATO PURL contributions since Summer 2025. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2026/ — ISW reported Russian restrictions on Western platforms via RuNet, Ukrainian strikes on military and oil infrastructure in Russia, and new UK and Dutch military assistance to Ukraine. * Russian Occupation Update, February 12, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-12-2026/ — ISW reported accelerated Russian administrative measures in occupied Ukraine, including re-registration deadlines for guardianship and property that could enable child removals and property seizures. * Russian stealth jets have arrived in North Africa, as filmed by Algerian potato farmer — Linus Höller (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/10/russian-stealth-jets-have-arrived-in-north-africa-as-filmed-by-algerian-potato-farmer/ — Video posted in Algeria appears to show a Russian Su-57 operating near Oum El Bouaghi Air Base, supporting prior reporting of Algerian procurement of the stealth fighter. * Russian Regions Starved for Money by Moscow Facing Serious Financial Problems — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/russian-regions-starved-for-money-by-moscow-facing-serious-financial-problems/ — The report details mounting fiscal distress among Russian federal subjects due to centralized revenue extraction, unfunded mandates, and emerging horizontal subsidy arrangements between regions. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 11, 2026 — CTP-ISW (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-11-2026/ — CTP-ISW assessed that Iran signaled possible future discussion of its ballistic missile program while continuing nuclear talks and engaging regional diplomacy amid Israeli concerns over missile stockpiles. * Second Carrier Strike Group Ordered To Spin-Up For Deployment To Middle East: Report — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/second-carrier-strike-group-ordered-to-spin-up-for-deployment-to-middle-east-report — The Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump directed a second U.S. Navy

    31 min
  3. Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

    5 DAYS AGO

    Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

    This episode of The LOWDOWN examines escalating global military posture, evolving battlefield adaptation, and internal regime pressures across multiple theaters—through the analytical lens of John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea appears poised to use an upcoming parade to signal progress in its 2021–2025 modernization cycle, potentially emphasizing survivable nuclear delivery systems and improved targeting capabilities. Pyongyang’s economic rebound—fueled by expanded trade with China and large-scale cryptocurrency theft—coincides with South Korea’s decision to proceed with the Freedom Shield exercise. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s collapse of the F-15EX deal signals continued diversification in regional fighter procurement. In the Middle East, Iran faces sustained domestic unrest following a deadly January crackdown, even as pro-regime rallies attempt to project internal stability. President Trump signaled consideration of deploying a second U.S. carrier strike group to CENTCOM if negotiations with Tehran fail. Concurrently, Washington approved major new arms packages to Israel and Saudi Arabia, reinforcing regional air, ground, and missile defense capabilities amid heightened deterrence signaling. Across Russia and Europe, Moscow continues rejecting meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine while reinvoking its 2022 Istanbul negotiating framework. The Kremlin throttled Telegram in a significant escalation of domestic information control, raising concerns even among Russian military bloggers about command-and-control impacts. Ukraine reported destruction of approximately 6,000 Russian FPV drones in cross-border strikes, while NATO aircraft intercepted a Russian fighter near Baltic airspace. Russian defense industry efforts to modernize artillery barrel production despite sanctions highlight ongoing adaptation. In the Western Hemisphere and beyond, President Trump indicated potential land-based strikes in Latin America targeting narcotics networks, while the U.S. announced deployment of 200 troops to Nigeria in an advisory counterinsurgency role. U.S. forces also seized a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean as part of expanded maritime enforcement. The episode concludes with a focused deep dive into Boyd’s warning about closed systems and strategic blindness. As Russia tightens internal narrative control and maintains doctrinal rigidity, and Iran frames dissent as anomaly, the risk of inward refinement increasing external mismatch becomes visible. In contrast, the U.S. Army’s deliberate stress-testing of its Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) system under electronic warfare conditions illustrates Boyd’s prescription: inject disruption before reality does it for you. This is a wide-arc look at posture, pressure, and adaptation—across theaters—through an enduring analytic lens that remains acutely relevant in 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Korean Peninsula Update, February 10, 2026 — ISW–CDOT (Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – China and Data Observatory Team (CDOT)) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-10-2026/ — North Korea may unveil new strategic systems at an upcoming Pyongyang parade as it closes out the 2021–2025 modernization plan, amid signs of economic rebound and South Korea proceeding with the March 9–19 Freedom Shield exercise. * Boeing abandons Indonesia F-15 bid — Michael Marrow (Breaking Defense) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/boeing-abandons-indonesia-f-15-bid/ — Boeing ended its campaign to sell up to 24 F-15EX fighters to Indonesia after Jakarta did not finalize the procurement announced in 2023. Russia and Europe * Russia unveils new multiple launch rocket system that’s highly mobile and precision-capable — Prabhat Ranjan Mishra (International Business Times) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/russia-rocket-system-precision-capable — Russia showcased the Sarma 300mm wheeled MLRS at World Defense Show 2026 in Riyadh, describing it as a mobile, automated, precision-capable launcher that can integrate drones and fire-control systems and use guided munitions with reported ranges up to about 120 km. * Russia deploys local satellite terminals to replace Starlink — Dylan Malyasov (NewsArmy) — https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-local-satellite-terminals-to-replace-starlink/ — A Ukrainian defense adviser said Russia is fielding Yamal- and Express-based satellite internet terminals with larger visible dish antennas after reported Russian Starlink access was blocked. * Ukraine Takes Out 6,000 Russian FPV Drones in Cross-Border Strikes — Julia Struck (Kyiv Post) — https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69723 — Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian strikes hit targets including a UAV depot and destroyed about 6,000 Russian FPV drones, along with a command post and an ammunition storage site, with assessments ongoing. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2026/ — ISW reported Russia blamed the U.S. for stalled negotiations, throttled Telegram, pursued sanctions-evasion for machine tools to expand production, and continued offensive and strike activity across multiple fronts while Ukraine conducted localized advances and strikes. * Russia’s FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russias-fpv-drone-campaign-in-ukraine-institutionalizes-intentional-civilian-harm-as-a-tool-of-war/ — ISW assessed Russian forces have conducted widespread FPV drone strikes against civilian targets and infrastructure in Ukraine’s near rear as an institutionalized component of Russian military operations. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 10, 2026 — CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-10-2026/ — On February 10, the report says Iran continued rejecting negotiations on its ballistic missile program and Axis of Resistance support as Ali Larijani traveled to Oman and met a Houthi spokesperson, while Iran hardened Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center tunnel entrances, Iranian authorities intensified domestic securitization amid limited student protests and strikes, Iran-backed actors pressed Iraqi government formation around Nouri al Maliki, Syrian government–SDF implementation and integration talks continued, Hezbollah-linked networks showed activity in Syria and the West Bank, and the U.S. expanded financial sanctions targeting Hezbollah-linked entities and Iran-related sanctions evasion. * A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran — Margherita Stancati and Benoit Faucon (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-second-wave-of-popular-anger-is-building-in-iran-ac51969c — The report said Iranian public defiance increased after January’s protest killings, with funerals, student actions, and medical-worker protests continuing amid arrests and reports of thousands killed and tens of thousands detained. * Some Iranians rally behind the regime, but public anger runs deep after protest crackdown — Henry Austin (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-protests-crackdown-ayatollah-khamenei-supporters-tehran-rcna257541 — The report described smaller pro-regime gatherings in Tehran alongside continued widespread anger after the crackdown, citing casualty and arrest figures reported by a U.S.-based monitoring group and noting increased U.S. military deployments and talks. * US approves major new arms sales to Israel worth $6.67 billion and to Saudi Arabia worth $9 billion — Matthew Lee (Associated Press) — https://apnews.com/article/israel-arms-sale-trump-iran-tensions-e73d1fe40974abca838a1a08590934d3 — The State Department announced arms sales totaling $6.67B to Israel and $9B to Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia and Apache helicopters plus vehicles for Israel, as tensions rose over Iran. * Trump: Iran would be ‘foolish’ not to make a deal on its nuclear and missile programs — Reuters (Reuters) — https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-iran-would-be-foolish-not-to-make-a-deal-on-its-nuclear-and-missile-programs/ — Reuters reported Trump said on February 11, 2026 that Iran wants to make a deal with the U.S. on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and would be “foolish” not to. * Trump Considers Sending Second U.S. Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East — OSINTdefender (citing Axios reporting by Barak Ravid) (Axios / OSINTdefender) — * — OSINTdefender reported Trump told Axios he is considering deploying a second carrier strike group to the Middle East and that a U.S. official confirmed discussions about an additional carrier deployment. Western Hemisphere * Donald Trump Promises ‘Very Hard’ Land Strikes in Latin America — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/trump-promises-hard-land-strikes-latin-america-drug-trafficking-11500789 — The report said Trump stated his administration plans to shift from maritime interdiction to land-based strikes in Latin America to combat drug trafficking, without detailing countries, timelines, or authorities. * Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro Says He Escaped Assassination Plot — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/gustavo-petro-escaped-assassination-attempt-helicopter-11500384 — The article content was not provided in the input beyond the title and URL. All Other Reporting * Chief of Naval Operations Unveils “Fighting Instructions” at U.S. Naval War College — U.S. Navy (Office o

    32 min

  4. 6 DAYS AGO

    Iran Crackdown, US–Iran Nuclear Signaling, Russian Peace Pressure, and Global Force Posture Shifts

    This episode covers the most consequential security developments shaping the current strategic environment as of February 9, 2026. In Iran and the Middle East, we examine Tehran’s arrest of senior reformist figures following nationwide protests, concurrent IRGC ballistic missile testing, and emerging Iranian signals offering limited nuclear-only concessions in exchange for full sanctions relief, alongside intensified US force posture movements involving Patriot and THAAD deployments and growing pressure on Lebanon’s government to confront Hezbollah. In Russia and Europe, the focus shifts to Moscow’s renewed effort to blame the United States for stalled peace efforts, Lavrov’s explicit reiteration of Russia’s maximalist war aims for Ukraine, and ongoing battlefield realities marked by incremental advances, inflated Russian reporting, and information operations. The episode also covers mounting economic pressure on Russia through India’s reduction of Russian oil purchases, US interdictions of shadow fleet tankers, and continued airspace probing from Belarus into NATO territory. In China and Asia, we assess the PLA’s evolving large-scale combat operations doctrine, intensifying pressure on Taiwan through coercive signaling below the threshold of war, advances in Chinese naval strike capabilities, and internal command-and-control vulnerabilities driven by political centralization and leadership purges. The episode concludes with a foundational analytical segment drawing on John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation, applying Boyd’s framework of cognitive adaptation and decision-cycle dominance to current Russian, Iranian, and Chinese behavior, and highlighting why the ability—or refusal—to discard outdated mental models is becoming a decisive factor in modern competition and conflict. Russia and Europe * Russian Armed Forces Division in a Positional Defense — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/ThreatTemp_Russia_03_Division_Positional_Defense.pdf — The report outlines how a Russian division conducts a depth-oriented positional defense emphasizing echelonment, centralized artillery fires, reserves, and deliberate counterattacks to attrit and halt an attacking force. * Russia Using Information Confrontation as a Weapons System — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Post) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/Russia_Information_Confrontation.pdf — The assessment describes how Russia integrates information confrontation across strategic, operational, and tactical levels to manipulate perceptions, degrade C5ISR, and influence adversary decision-making. * Eight Days – then it’s over — Tom Tugendhat (The Reset) — * — The article reports that UK military exercises show British ammunition stockpiles would be exhausted within eight days during high-intensity peer conflict. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2026/ — The assessment documents Russia’s continued incremental ground operations, diplomatic messaging, long-range strikes, and economic pressure points across Ukraine as of February 9, 2026. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-9-2026/ — The update details Iranian nuclear negotiation signaling, internal crackdowns, proxy activity, missile testing, and regional developments across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. * Iran Arrests Prominent Reformist Politicians, Cites Links to US and Israel — Al Jazeera Staff (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/9/iran-arrests-prominent-reformists-over-deadly-january-unrest — Iranian authorities arrested senior reformist figures on February 9, 2026, accusing them of coordinating with foreign actors during January protests. * A-10 Warthog Protects Mine-Hunting Littoral Combat Ship In Persian Gulf Drill — Tyler Rogoway (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-protect-mine-hunting-littoral-combat-ship-in-arabian-gulf-exercise — U.S. A-10C aircraft conducted maritime force protection exercises with USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf to counter small boats and drone threats. * Laser-Guided Rocket-Armed F-15E Strike Eagles Make Super Bowl Cameo Appearance — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rocket-armed-f-15e-strike-eagles-make-super-bowl-cameo-appearance — APKWS-armed F-15E Strike Eagles deployed to Jordan were featured during Super Bowl LX, highlighting their counter-drone mission in the Middle East. * USAF Middle East Activity Update – Airlift and Tanker Movements — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows over 120 U.S. airlift and tanker flights supporting air defense and force protection deployments into the CENTCOM area since mid-January 2026. * 2/9 Air Defense Move Update – USAF/Army Airlift to CENTCOM — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — The update reports that U.S. air and missile defense deployments to the Middle East resumed at high tempo and are nearing completion as of February 9, 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/China%20Landing%20Zone/2026FEB04_T2COMG2_How_CHI_Fights_LSCO_Assessment1-1.1_digital%201.pdf — The assessment describes how a PLA Heavy Combined Arms Brigade conducts system-focused large-scale combat operations against a U.S. BCT through multidomain shaping, penetration, and exploitation. * China’s Fastest Anti-Ship Missile May Have Quietly Entered Naval Service — Christopher McFadden (Straight Arrow News) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-fastest-anti-ship-missile-enter-service — Imagery suggests China’s YJ-15 air-launched anti-ship missile may be operational on carrier-capable fighters, indicating expanded maritime strike capability. * Xi Jinping Can Never Trust His Own Military — Deng Yuwen (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/china-xi-generals-military-zhang-youxia-liu-zhenli/ — The article reports that Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of senior PLA leaders reflect persistent distrust and centralized control within China’s military. * Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed — J. William DeMarco (War on the Rocks) — https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/deterrence-wont-fail-in-the-taiwan-strait-it-will-be-bypassed/ — The article argues that China is using sustained coercion and ambiguity short of war to pressure Taiwan and bypass traditional deterrence frameworks. * Beijing’s Growth Model Is Still Broken — Dinny McMahon (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/beijings-growth-model-still-broken-dinny-mcmahon — The article reports that China’s export- and investment-driven growth strategy continues to generate domestic economic imbalances and global trade friction. Western Hemisphere * US Navy’s New Laser Weapon Downs Four Drones at Sea — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-navys-new-laser-weapon-downs-four-drones-at-sea/ — The U.S. Navy’s HELIOS laser system successfully downed four drones during a counter-UAS exercise at sea, demonstrating multi-target engagement capability. * Navy Pilot to Receive Medal of Honor 75 Years After Saving Lives in Korean War — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/navy-pilot-to-receive-medal-of-honor-75-years-after-saving-lives-in-korean-war/ — Retired Navy Capt. E. Royce Williams will receive the Medal of Honor for downing Soviet-flown MiG-15s during a 1952 Korean War dogfight. All Other Reporting * US Navy Aircraft Carrier Status Overview — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — As of February 9, 2026, only two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are deployed, with most of the force constrained by maintenance or training cycles. * USAF CORONET Movement – F-35A Deployment to Europe — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows Vermont ANG F-35A aircraft deploying to Europe via a coordinated CORONET movement supported by KC-135 tankers. * USAF Aerial Refueling Force Disposition – Europe and CENTCOM — DefenceGeek (X) — * — The update identifies approximately 63–64 U.S. aerial refueling aircraft positioned across Europe and CENTCOM as of February 9, 2026. * Destruction and Creation — John R. Boyd (coljohnboyd.com) —https://www.coljohnboyd.com/#pdf-destruction-and-creation — Boyd’s 1976 paper outlines a theory of competitive advantage based on the continual destruction and reconstruction of mental models to adapt to changing reality. Destruction and Creation as an Analytic Lens: Competing in Systems, Cognition, and Tempo China – Large-Scale Combat Operations and Systems Confrontation Source Link: How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team (TRADOC G-2, Feb 2026) Alignment Strength: Strong Assessment:PLA doctrine closely reflects Boyd’s core warning: victory comes from collapsing the adversary’s mental and operational coherence faster than they can reframe reality. The PLA’s emphasis on systems confrontation—targeting C2, ISR, fires, sustainment, and decision cycles rather than force-on-force attrition—mirrors Boyd’s argument that advantage accrues to actors who can destroy the opponent’s conceptual model and impose disorder faster than it can be reconstructed. Application vs. Violation:China is applying Boyd’s framework deliberately. Extended shaping operations, deception, EW, cyber, and joint fires are designed to invalidate U.S. BCT as

    42 min
  5. Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

    9 FEB

    Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

    This episode covers a week of high-impact developments across major theaters. In Europe, Russia intensifies long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy and nuclear-linked infrastructure while limited cross-border activity and U.S.-imposed negotiation timelines shape the information and diplomatic battlefield. In the Middle East, indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman fail to produce progress as satellite imagery shows Iran rapidly rebuilding ballistic missile facilities, Israel warns it may strike alone if missile thresholds are crossed, and the UK reinforces RAF Akrotiri with F-35Bs amid rising regional tension. In Asia and the global maritime domain, Japan’s snap election delivers Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority to pursue defense reforms, China advances high-speed helicopter programs, and Beijing’s state-linked port network across Africa signals long-term naval positioning. In the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. moves to accelerate lethality and sustainment through one-way attack drone competitions, expanded bomber and fighter force-structure recommendations, ammunition acquisition reform, and new critical mineral stockpiling. The episode concludes by applying Stratagems for Desperate Situations as an analytic lens, examining how deception, layered tactics, and managed escalation are shaping state behavior across today’s conflicts. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported that Russia launched 408 drones and 39 missiles overnight on February 6–7 targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and high-voltage substations supporting nuclear power plants, while noting reported U.S. pressure for a March 2026 peace-deal target and that GRU First Deputy Head Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev survived a February 6 assassination attempt. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that Russia is using limited cross-border activity in northern Sumy/Kharkiv for informational effects amid an unverified MoD claim of seizing Sydorivka, while also noting reports of Russian communications issues after SpaceX blocked unregistered Starlink terminals and that Ukraine confirmed January strikes damaged facilities at Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site. * At least 6 injured in grenade attack on beauty salon in southeastern France — İlayda Çakırtekin (Anadolu Agency) — https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/at-least-6-injured-in-grenade-attack-on-beauty-salon-in-southeastern-france/3822861 — Anadolu Agency reported that on February 6 a grenade was thrown into a beauty salon in Grenoble, injuring at least six people including a five-year-old, and that the perpetrators fled the scene. * U.S. gave Ukraine and Russia June deadline to reach peace agreement, Zelenskyy says — Associated Press (NPR) — https://www.npr.org/2026/02/08/nx-s1-5705967/u-s-gave-ukraine-and-russia-june-deadline-to-reach-peace-agreement-zelenskyy-says — NPR reported on February 8 that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. set a June 2026 deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement and that Russia’s overnight strikes forced Ukrainian nuclear power plants to reduce output. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported on February 7 that the U.S. and Iran planned another talks round early the week of February 8 with positions unchanged, alongside a February 6 U.S. order imposing a conditional 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and reporting that Iraq received 2,250 ISIS detainees from Syria since January 21. * Iran Update, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that U.S.-Israel consultations would intensify ahead of a February 11 Trump–Netanyahu meeting while U.S.–Iran talks in Oman showed no Iranian shift on missiles or enrichment, and that Iran showcased and reportedly tested the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile amid regional signaling. * U.S.-Iran Indirect Nuclear Talks Fail to Make Significant Progress — Alexandra Sharp (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/us-iran-indirect-nuclear-talks-oman-trump-military-force-araghchi/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 — Foreign Policy reported that indirect U.S.–Iran talks in Muscat on February 6 produced no major breakthrough amid persistent mistrust, with the U.S. including CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper and announcing new sanctions tied to Iran’s oil “shadow fleet.” * Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show — Samuel Granados and Aurélien Breeden (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/world/middleeast/iran-missile-nuclear-repairs.html — The New York Times reported on February 6 that satellite imagery analysis found Iran repaired multiple ballistic missile facilities damaged in June 2025 relatively quickly while major nuclear sites showed slower, limited aboveground reconstruction. * Israel warns Trump: We may act alone if Iran crosses ballistic missile red line — Avi Ashkenazi (The Jerusalem Post) — https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-885948 — The Jerusalem Post reported on February 8 that Israeli defense officials told U.S. counterparts Israel is prepared to act unilaterally if Iran crosses an Israeli-defined ballistic missile “red line,” while saying Israel assesses it is not yet at that threshold. * UK Reinforces RAF Akrotiri With Deployment of Six F-35Bs — Kai Greet (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/07/uk-reinforces-akrotiri-f35bs/ — The Aviationist reported that the UK deployed six RAF F-35B aircraft to RAF Akrotiri on February 6 to bolster the base’s defensive posture amid heightened Middle East tensions. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * New Photos Raise Questions About China’s Coaxial-Rotor Helicopter Knockoff — Stefano D’Urso (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/06/new-images-chinas-coaxial-helicopter-knockoff/ — The Aviationist reported on February 6 that new imagery suggests China may have built a second compound helicopter demonstrator resembling U.S. X2-derived concepts, following an earlier S-97 Raider–like sighting reported in 2025. * How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate — Economist Staff (The Economist) — https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/02/08/how-japans-prime-minister-will-use-her-massive-new-mandate — The Economist reported that Japan’s ruling LDP won a commanding lower-house majority in the February 8 snap election, giving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a strong mandate to pursue fiscal measures and security reforms. * China encircles Africa for naval dominance — Ben Farmer (The Telegraph) — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/04/china-encircles-africa-for-naval-dominance/ — The Telegraph reported on February 4 that Chinese state-linked firms are involved as builders, financiers, or operators at 78 ports across 32 African countries, with analysts warning many ports are capable of servicing warships. Western Hemisphere * Wearing smart glasses in uniform jeopardizes OPSEC, Air Force says — Cristina Stassis (Military Times) — https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2026/02/06/wearing-smart-glasses-in-uniform-jeopardizes-opsec-air-force-says/ — Military Times reported that a memo dated 9 January updated U.S. Air Force dress and appearance policy to prohibit airmen from wearing smart glasses with photo, video, or AI capabilities while in uniform due to operational security concerns. * Rare earth miners jump as Trump announces establishment of critical mineral reserve — Yun Li (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/rare-earth-miners-jump-as-trump-is-reportedly-eyeing-mineral-stockpile-.html?_bhlid=8c381b887a56568847b1277c682c92adfda59ced — CNBC reported on February 2 that President Donald Trump announced “Project Vault,” a U.S. critical mineral reserve pairing $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan, sending shares of several rare earth miners higher. * Pentagon picks 25 vendors to show off one-way attack drones in the Gauntlet competition — Ashley Roque (Defense News) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/pentagon-picks-25-vendors-to-show-off-one-way-attack-drones-in-the-gauntlet-competition/?_bhlid=668a28432a768419232dc6aac6e2161a88735114 — Defense News reported on February 3 that DoD selected 25 companies to demonstrate low-cost one-way attack drones during “the Gauntlet” at Fort Benning from mid-February into March, with prototype awards expected to total $150 million. * DOJ Arrests Third Suspect in 2012 Benghazi Attack After Decade-Long Pursuit — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/doj-arrests-third-suspect-in-2012-benghazi-attack-after-decade-long-pursuit/ — SOFX reported on February 7 that DOJ announced the arrest and extradition of Zubayr Al-Bakoush, who was first charged in a sealed 2015 complaint, to face an unsealed eight-count indictment tied to the 2012 Benghazi attack. * New Report: Air Force Needs 200 B-21s, 300 F-47s to Deny Enemy ‘Sanctuaries’ — Greg Hadley (Air & Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/new-report-air-force-b-21s-f-47s-enemy-sanctuaries/ — Air & Space Forces Magazine reported on February 4 that a Mitchell Institute report recommended the Air Force procure at least 200 B-21 bombers and 300

    28 min
  6. Taiwan Accelerates Asymmetric Defense as Russia Probes NATO Cohesion, Iran Sets Negotiation Red Lines, and China Expands Military Control, Signaling, and Espionage Activity

    7 FEB

    Taiwan Accelerates Asymmetric Defense as Russia Probes NATO Cohesion, Iran Sets Negotiation Red Lines, and China Expands Military Control, Signaling, and Espionage Activity

    This episode surveys accelerating military and political activity across the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East, with emphasis on pre-conflict shaping rather than active combat. In Asia, Taiwan advances asymmetric deterrence through mobile Harpoon deployments, mass-produced UAV integration with the United States, and ground-force restructuring, while Beijing tightens political control over its defense sector, expands naval capacity, promotes space-warfare signaling, and faces multiple Europe-based espionage disruptions. In Europe, Russia sustains maximalist war aims amid stalled negotiations, conducts information and escalation signaling, and suffers command-and-control disruption as Ukraine strikes strategic missile infrastructure and Starlink access is constrained, while NATO wargaming and French naval leadership highlight readiness gaps for rapid, ambiguous conflict. In the Middle East, Iran–U.S. talks remain limited to position-setting, with Tehran reiterating non-negotiable red lines and Hezbollah showing signs of internal strain. Across domains, today’s reporting reinforces enduring patterns of indirect coercion, access exploitation, perception management, and early isolation shaping outcomes before open warfare begins. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 6, 2026 — CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-6-2026/ — Iran and the United States held framework-setting talks in Oman on February 6 amid firm Iranian red lines on enrichment, missiles, and regional proxies, alongside Hezbollah leadership changes, new U.S. sanctions, and regional security engagements involving Lebanon, Syria, and Azerbaijan. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2026/ — Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks continued in Abu Dhabi alongside POW exchanges as Russia reaffirmed maximalist war aims, escalated nuclear rhetoric after New START’s expiration, and sustained missile and ground operations without decisive breakthroughs. * Ukraine Hits Russian Oreshnik Launch Site With Flamingo Missiles — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/ukraine-hits-russian-oreshnik-launch-site-with-flamingo-missiles/ — Ukrainian forces conducted January 2026 long-range strikes using FP-5 Flamingo missiles and drones against Russia’s Kapustin Yar site, damaging facilities used for Oreshnik ballistic missile preparations. * ‘Preparing for war:’ At French naval conference, a grim realism — Christina Mackenzie (Breaking Defense) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/preparing-for-war-at-french-naval-conference-a-grim-realism/ — French and allied naval leaders warned Europe is unprepared for near-term high-intensity conflict and urged accelerated shipbuilding, munitions production, and integration of manned-unmanned forces. * The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin? — Alex Clark (The Guardian) — https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/06/the-russian-economy-is-finally-stagnating-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-and-for-putin — Russia’s wartime economy has slowed into stagnation with declining energy revenues and rising taxes, increasing long-term fiscal risk while still sustaining near-term war funding. * He played Putin and broke NATO in three days — Alexander Gabuev (Meduza) — https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/02/05/he-played-putin-and-broke-nato-in-three-days-alexander-gabuev-the-scholar-behind-an-alarming-wargame-tells-meduza-how-he-did-it — A German-led wargame showed Russia exploiting political hesitation and hybrid tactics to seize a Baltic city within three simulated days before NATO could coordinate an effective response. * Greece and France charge suspects in separate China-linked espionage cases — Euronews — https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/06/greece-and-france-charge-suspects-in-separate-china-linked-espionage-cases — Greek and French authorities charged suspects in unrelated cases involving alleged Chinese espionage targeting military technologies and satellite communications linked to NATO systems. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China’s Intelligence Community: An Overview — Alex Papastergiou (Grey Dynamics) — https://greydynamics.com/chinas-intelligence-community-an-overview-cic/ — The article details China’s intelligence system as a CCP-controlled, whole-of-society ecosystem integrating civilian, military, and Party organs through overlapping authorities and legal frameworks. * China & Taiwan Update, February 6, 2026 — ISW-CDOT (Institute for the Study of War – China Domain / Taiwan) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-6-2026/ — Xi Jinping’s political purges in the PLA, renewed CCP-KMT engagement, Taiwan budget disputes, and persistent PRC gray-zone pressure shaped cross-strait and regional dynamics. * With the Latest Deliveries, the Chinese Navy Would Now Have a Fleet of 35 Type 052D Destroyers in Service — Redacción Zona Militar (Zona Militar) — https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2026/02/05/with-the-latest-deliveries-the-chinese-navy-would-now-have-a-fleet-of-35-type-052d-destroyers-in-service/ — The PLAN reached at least 35 operational Type 052D destroyers following recent commissions, reinforcing escort and air-defense capacity for carrier and independent operations. * China Secretly Testing Nuclear Weapons And Covering Its Tracks, U.S. Alleges — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/nuclear/china-secretly-testing-nuclear-weapons-and-covering-its-tracks-u-s-alleges — U.S. officials accused China of conducting concealed yield-producing nuclear tests, claims Beijing denied and the CTBTO said were not supported by monitoring data. * Taiwan-U.S. jointly developed drone completes system integration — Sean Lin (Central News Agency, Taiwan) — https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202602060014 — Taiwan’s NCSIST and U.S. firm Kratos completed system integration of the Mighty Hornet IV UAV, establishing a baseline for flight testing and future production. * Taiwan receives first land-based Harpoon missile systems — Dylan Malyasov (Defense Blog) — https://defence-blog.com/taiwan-receives-first-land-based-harpoon-missile-systems/ — Taiwan began receiving components of U.S.-made Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems, marking initial fielding of a mobile anti-ship capability. * Taiwan-US ‘firepower’ center to hone asymmetric warfare tactics — Military Times staff (Military Times) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/02/02/taiwan-us-firepower-center-to-hone-asymmetric-warfare-tactics/ — The U.S. and Taiwan are preparing a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center focused on asymmetric air and maritime defense against a potential PLA attack. * Taiwan is reworking its ground forces. It could unlock new ways of fighting with new tech — Chris Panella (Business Insider) — https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwans-ground-forces-restructure-makes-using-new-weapons-easier-2026-1 — Taiwan reorganized armored and mechanized units into combined arms brigades to better integrate drones, AI, and new U.S.-supplied systems. * China removes 3 lawmakers with defence-sector ties after top general probed — Reuters (Beijing) — https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-removes-3-lawmakers-with-defence-sector-ties-after-top-general-probed — China removed three lawmakers linked to defense and nuclear sectors following an investigation into senior PLA leadership. * China’s space aircraft carrier: superweapon or propaganda? — Alexander Freund (DW) — https://www.dw.com/en/china-taiwan-space-aircraft-luanniao-carrier-weapon-military-technology/a-75726514 — Analysts assessed China’s promoted Luanniao space “aircraft carrier” concept as unrealistic in the near term and primarily strategic signaling. Western Hemisphere * Raytheon to Radically Boost Production of Air Force’s Main Dogfighting Missile — Matthew Cox (Military.com) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/raytheon-production-amraam-air-force/ — Raytheon announced a multiyear agreement to raise AIM-120 AMRAAM production to at least 1,900 missiles annually to meet U.S. and allied demand. * Latest NDAA Supports AI Safety, Innovation, and China Decoupling — Jakub Kraus (Lawfare) — https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/latest-ndaa-supports-ai-safety--innovation--and-china-decoupling — The FY2026 NDAA expanded authorities for military AI adoption, safety oversight, and technology decoupling from China. * Air Force Welcomes First CW5 in 34 Years — Airman 1st Class Nelvis Sera (Maxwell Air Force Base Public Affairs) — https://www.afaccessionscenter.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4397060/air-force-welcomes-first-cw5-in-34-years/ — The U.S. Air Force inducted CW5 Jason Godwin, restoring the CW5 rank to active-duty service for the first time since 1992. * Hunt For Container Launchers Packed With Drones Kicked-Off By Pentagon — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/hunt-for-container-launchers-packed-with-drones-kicked-off-by-pentagon — The Pentagon launched a DIU effort to develop containerized systems for mass deployment and recovery of uncrewed aerial systems with minimal personnel. All Other Reporting * Batwing-like fighter jet joins US Navy race, aims 4× speed of sound — Sujita Sinha (Interesting Engineering) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/batwing-like-navy-fighter-concept — Stavatti Aerospace proposed the SM-39 Razor concept for the Navy’s F/A-XX program, claiming Mach 4 performance despite skepticism over feasibility. * Stratagems for Gaining Ground (26–31) — Imperial Combat Arts — https://imperi

    33 min
  7. Iran Talks Under Fire, Russia Stalls Peace, China Raises the Baseline: Coercive Diplomacy and Strategic Confusion Across Key Theaters

    6 FEB

    Iran Talks Under Fire, Russia Stalls Peace, China Raises the Baseline: Coercive Diplomacy and Strategic Confusion Across Key Theaters

    Today’s reporting highlights a pattern of diplomacy conducted under pressure rather than de-escalation: U.S.–Iran nuclear talks begin in Oman amid sustained U.S. air and missile defense deployments and explicit Iranian missile signaling; Russia, Ukraine, and the United States conclude another round of talks with no movement on territory or security guarantees as Moscow pairs negotiations with continued strikes and deepens occupation governance; and China continues to normalize high-tempo military activity across the Indo-Pacific while the U.S. and Philippines expand defensive posture and monitoring. Across regions, negotiations are used alongside force, signaling, and structural consolidation to shape perception and constrain opponents, reinforcing that dialogue alone is not altering core objectives or trajectories in the near term. Iran and Middle East * Middle East Preparing For War Ahead Of U.S.-Iran Negotiations — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/middle-east-preparing-for-war-ahead-of-u-s-iran-negotiations — On 5 February 2026, the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated regional military readiness with force deployments, threats, and heightened alerts as last-ditch U.S.-Iran talks in Oman approached. * Mediators propose framework for crucial Iran-US talks this week — Virginia Pietromarchi (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/4/mediators-propose-framework-for-crucial-iran-us-talks-this-week — On 4 February 2026, mediators from Qatar, Türkiye, and Egypt proposed a framework for U.S.-Iran talks including a temporary halt to enrichment, uranium transfer, and limits on missiles and proxy support. * Iran Update, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (CTP-ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-5-2026/ — Reporting on 5 February 2026 assessed uncertainty over the scope of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks amid Iranian nuclear reconstitution efforts, missile and proxy reaffirmations, and regional activity in Iraq and Syria. * US works on transition plans for Iran even as it heads to Oman for nuclear talks — Thomas Watkins (The National) — https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/02/05/iran-opposition-talks-florida/ — On 5 February 2026, reporting indicated the Trump administration was consulting Iranian-American figures on potential transition scenarios while simultaneously pursuing nuclear talks with Iran in Oman. * Pakistan deploys helicopters, drones to end standoff with Baloch rebels — Reuters / AFP (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/4/pakistan-deploys-helicopters-drones-to-end-standoff-with-baloch-rebels — On 4 February 2026, Pakistani forces used helicopters and drones to retake Nushki after a multi-day clash with Baloch separatists. Russia and Europe * Ukraine-Russia Talks End With Little Progress and Hints of Impasse — Kim Barker (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/world/europe/russia-ukraine-peace-talks.html — On 5 February 2026, trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi ended after hours with only a prisoner exchange announced and no movement on territorial or security issues. * Russian Occupation Update, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-5-2026/ — As of 5 February 2026, Russia intensified coercive governance in occupied Ukraine through prosecutions, deportations, child militarization, resource extraction, and infrastructure integration. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2026/ — On 4 February 2026, ISW reported continued Russian battlefield interdiction operations, drone force expansion, and minimal diplomatic progress during Abu Dhabi talks. * The Limits of Russian Power: Why Putin Isn’t Thriving in Trump’s Anarchic World — Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/limits-russian-power — Published 5 February 2026, the article argued Russia’s war in Ukraine has constrained Moscow’s global influence and increased dependence on China despite U.S. foreign policy disruption. * What The Sunset Of Key U.S.-Russia Nuclear Deal Could Mean For America’s Stockpile — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/nuclear/what-the-sunset-of-key-u-s-russia-nuclear-deal-could-mean-for-americas-stockpile — On 5 February 2026, the expiration of New START ended binding limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, raising prospects for warhead uploads and posture changes. * Trump says he won’t extend nuclear arms treaty with Russia — Jack Detsch (Politico) — https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/05/trump-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia-00767497 — On 5 February 2026, President Donald Trump said the United States would let New START expire and seek a new arms control agreement with Russia. * US and Russia agree to resume regular military contact — James Landale (BBC) — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjw30vx5z6o — On 5 February 2026, U.S. and Russian officials agreed in Abu Dhabi to re-establish regular high-level military-to-military dialogue. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Tracking China’s Increased Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific in 2025 — Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Truly Tinsley (CSIS) — https://chinapower.csis.org/china-increased-military-activities-indo-pacific-2025/ — Published 5 February 2026, the CSIS assessment documented increased PLA air, naval, and carrier operations across the Indo-Pacific during 2025. * Navy to set up monitoring station at Tubbataha — Cristina Chi (Philstar.com) — https://philstar.com/headlines/2026/02/05/2505987/navy-set-monitoring-station-tubbataha — On 5 February 2026, the Philippine Navy announced plans to establish a monitoring detachment at Tubbataha Reefs to track vessel movements in the Sulu Sea. * U.S. Army Quietly Stands Up Rotational Force in the Philippines — Aaron-Matthew Lariosa (USNI News) — https://news.usni.org/2026/02/02/u-s-army-quietly-stands-up-rotational-force-in-the-philippines — Published 2 February 2026, reporting revealed the U.S. Army established Army Rotational Force-Philippines to expand training and defense cooperation. Western Hemisphere * US Air Force Conducts Live Test of New Standoff Cruise Missile — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-air-force-conducts-live-test-of-new-standoff-cruise-missile/ — On 21 January 2026, the U.S. Air Force conducted a live-warhead test of the Extended Range Attack Munition at Eglin Air Force Base. All Other Reporting * Thirty-Six Stratagems — Stratagems for Confused Situations (Stratagems 20–25) — Anonymous (Imperial Combat Arts) — https://imperialcombatarts.com/thirty-six-stratagems.html — This source outlines classical Chinese strategic principles emphasizing deception, alliance management, and organizational disruption in complex conflict environments. * From space to the seabed, critical infrastructure is becoming more vulnerable, experts warn: “People don’t realize how dependent we are” — Sharmila Kuthunur (Space.com) — https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/from-space-to-the-seabed-critical-infrastructure-is-becoming-more-vulnerable-experts-warn-people-dont-realize-how-dependent-we-are — Published 30 January 2026, experts warned that growing reliance on satellites and undersea cables is outpacing legal and security protections. * Islamic State-Linked Attacks in Nigeria Claim 162 Lives — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/islamic-state-linked-attacks-in-nigeria-claim-162-lives/ — On 5 February 2026, coordinated attacks attributed to Islamic State–linked militants killed at least 162 civilians in Nigeria’s Kwara state. Source IdentificationThirty-Six Stratagems — Stratagems for Confused Situations (Stratagems 20–25) — anonymous, Warring States tradition Executive SynthesisThese stratagems argue that advantage in complex or deteriorating situations is created less by force-on-force strength than by manipulating perception, tempo, and relational geometry: confuse cognition, control attention, isolate decisive moments, exploit alliances instrumentally, and dismantle the organizational logic that makes an enemy effective. Key Concepts and Mechanisms * Cognitive Disruption (20: Trouble the Water): Induce uncertainty through the unusual or unexpected to degrade enemy judgment and slow decision cycles; distraction creates openings. * Deception for Disengagement (21: Golden Cicada): Use a credible façade to fix enemy attention while withdrawing forces to preserve combat power and regain initiative. * Decisive Containment (22: Shut the Door): When conditions allow, encircle and finish to prevent regeneration of threat; incomplete defeat prolongs conflict, reckless pursuit invites reversal. * Relational Geometry (23: Befriend the Distant): Manage threat by aligning with non-adjacent actors to concentrate against proximate rivals; immediate competitors pose greater danger than distant peers. * Instrumental Alliances (24: Borrow the Road): Leverage allied resources to defeat a common enemy, recognizing alliances as contingent tools rather than permanent bonds. * Structural Sabotage (25: Rotten Timbers): Undermine effectiveness by attacking doctrine, routines, and coordination—the connective tissue of force—rather than mass alone. Decision-Relevant Takeaways * Shape the fight by attacking how the adversary thinks and organizes, not just what they field. * Use deception to preserve options—especially withdrawal—when defeat risks annihilation. * Seek decisive closure when feasible; otherwise, manage disengagement deliberately. * Assess power competitively within

    25 min
  8. Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Energy Grid, New START Expires, Iran Seeks Talks Under Military Pressure

    5 FEB

    Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Energy Grid, New START Expires, Iran Seeks Talks Under Military Pressure

    This episode covers Russia’s resumption of large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during extreme winter conditions, signaling the collapse of the energy strike moratorium while Moscow makes limited battlefield gains and sustains maximalist war aims. It also examines the expiration of the New START treaty, ending the last remaining limits and verification measures on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces and marking a shift toward a less constrained nuclear environment. In the Middle East, reporting focuses on Iran’s internal crackdown following nationwide protests, Tehran’s decision to authorize nuclear talks with the United States while warning of regional war, and continued U.S. military operations and force posture amid heightened tensions. The episode also addresses U.S. operational lessons from recent long-range strike missions, including tanker capacity shortfalls, and the temporary disruption of U.S. transiting operations after a KC-46 mishap at Morón Air Base. In Asia, the episode highlights China’s use of dual-use research vessels to support naval and undersea warfare objectives, political enforcement within the PLA tied to 2027 readiness goals, Taiwan’s deepening alignment with the United States, and allied efforts to adapt tactically through rapid innovation and decentralized production, including battlefield 3D printing of drone systems. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2026/ — Russia resumed large-scale missile-and-drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on 2–3 February 2026 while making limited confirmed ground advances and reiterating maximalist war aims ahead of talks in Abu Dhabi and New START’s expiration. * In largest missile attack of winter, Russia targets Ukraine’s power plants amid brutal freeze — Lucy Pakhnyuk, Dmytro Basmat, Kateryna Hodunova, Tania Myronyshena (Kyiv Independent) — https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-mass-attack-across-ukraine-signaling-end-of-energy-ceasefire/ — On 3 February 2026 (updated 3 February 2026), Russia launched 71 missiles and 450 drones against Ukraine, striking energy infrastructure across multiple regions and leaving widespread heating and power disruptions during extreme cold. * Fears of new arms race as US-Russia nuclear weapons treaty due to expire — Jonathan Beale (BBC News) — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g31n4ey9go — Published 6 February 2026, the report describes New START expiring without replacement, removing caps and transparency measures on U.S. and Russian deployed strategic nuclear forces. * With New START Set to Expire, Experts Foresee a ‘New Era’ of Nuclear Policy — Air & Space Forces Magazine (Air and Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/with-new-start-set-to-expire-experts-foresee-a-new-era-of-nuclear-policy/ — On 4 February 2026, the article outlines expert debate over risks and opportunities as New START expires on 5 February 2026 with no successor agreement and diminished verification since 2023. * Statement On the Expiration of the Last Treaty Restricting the World’s Two Largest Nuclear Arsenals (New START) — Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and Council for a Livable World (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and Council for a Livable World) — https://armscontrolcenter.org/statement-on-the-expiration-of-the-last-treaty-restricting-the-worlds-two-largest-nuclear-arsenals-new-start/ — On 4 February 2026, the organizations warned that New START’s expiration on 5 February 2026 removes limits and verification and urged voluntary restraint and negotiations on a successor framework. * A key nuclear weapons treaty is ending. It’s a sign of Russia’s eroding superpower status — Matthew Chance (CNN) — https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/04/world/new-start-treaty-expiration-nuclear-weapons-intl — On 4 February 2026, CNN assessed that the end of New START highlights the collapse of the last U.S.–Russia arms control framework and described Russia’s reliance on nuclear parity as a marker of great-power status. * Russian spy spacecraft have intercepted Europe’s key satellites, officials believe — Sam Jones, Peggy Hollinger, Ian Bott (Financial Times) — https://archive.is/6A4s6 — Published 4 February 2026, European officials said Russian satellites Luch-1 and Luch-2 likely intercepted communications from multiple European geostationary satellites by conducting prolonged close-proximity operations in orbit. * Russia Uses Cossacks to Sustain Ideological Support for War — Richard Arnold (Eurasia Daily Monitor) — https://jamestown.org/russia-uses-cossacks-to-sustain-ideological-support-for-war/ — On 3 February 2026, the report describes the Kremlin expanding and institutionalizing Cossack organizations across Russia to reinforce wartime ideology, recruitment, and youth education as the war surpassed the duration of the Great Patriotic War. * Moscow Leverages Extremism in the Balkans — Blerim Vela (Eurasia Daily Monitor) — https://jamestown.org/moscow-leverages-extremism-in-the-balkans/ — On 3 February 2026, the report argues Russia is using extremist movements, Orthodox networks, and sympathetic elites to embed pro-Kremlin illiberal narratives and practices across Western Balkan politics and society. * Ukraine showed a British unit that it needs to 3D-print drone parts and be able to do it close to the fight — Sinéad Baker (Business Insider) — https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-showed-uk-unit-needed-3d-print-drone-parts-war-2026-2 — On 4 February 2026, the report says the UK’s 1st Battalion Irish Guards began using 3D printing to produce drone parts and bodies and is working toward mobile, near-front production inspired by Ukrainian practices. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and AEI Critical Threats Project (ISW and AEI Critical Threats Project) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-4-2026/ — On 4 February 2026, the update assesses fragile U.S.–Iran diplomacy ahead of 6 February talks in Oman alongside continued U.S. counter-ISIS strikes and evolving SDF–Syrian government integration dynamics in Syria. * After crushing protests, Iran’s supreme leader now tries to avert a U.S. attack — Lee Keath (Associated Press) — https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/after-crushing-protests-irans-supreme-leader-now-tries-to-avert-a-u-s-attack — On 4 February 2026, the report says Ayatollah Ali Khamenei authorized nuclear talks with the U.S. while warning of regional war after a major crackdown following nationwide protests. * Midnight Hammer Lessons: USAF Needs More Tankers, Munitions — Matthew Cox (Air and Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/midnight-hammer-lessons-highlight-need-for-more-tankers-and-flexible-munitions/ — On 2 February 2026, the article reports U.S. Air Force leaders said Operation Midnight Hammer highlighted shortfalls in tanker capacity and the need for more flexible penetrating and standoff munitions. * KC-46 Mishap Closes Key European Logistical Hub For U.S. For Days (Updated) — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/kc-46-mishap-closes-key-european-logistical-hub-for-u-s-for-days — Published 3 February 2026, the report says a KC-46 rejected takeoff at Morón Air Base temporarily closed the runway and disrupted U.S. aircraft transiting toward Europe and the Middle East amid heightened Iran-related force flows. * Trouble Is Brewing in Syria: Sustaining the Country’s Progress Requires a More Inclusive Transition — Jerome Drevon and Nanar Hawach (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/trouble-brewing-syria — On 4 February 2026, the authors argue Syria’s post-Assad transition under President Ahmed al-Shara remains fragile due to centralized power and limited political inclusion despite international rehabilitation. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China’s Blue-Water Research Fleet: Science in Service of Strategy — Ryan D. Martinson (China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College) — https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/19/ — On 4 February 2026, the report argues China’s large blue-water research fleet is a dual-use instrument that collects ocean and seabed data supporting PLA Navy undersea warfare and broader national strategy. * Company Behind Drone-Killing Hellfire Missile-Armed Buggy Set To Get Marine Corps Contract — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/land/company-behind-drone-killing-hellfire-missile-armed-buggy-set-to-get-marine-corps-contract — Published 3 February 2026, the report says the U.S. Marine Corps plans a sole-source contract to V2X for up to 50 Hellfire-armed DASH mobile counter-drone systems with deliveries beginning by 30 May 2026. * Taiwan’s Tron Future unveils AI-guided anti-armor rockets — Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/02/03/taiwans-tron-future-unveils-ai-guided-anti-armor-rockets/ — On 3 February 2026, Tron Future unveiled the T-Scope AI-assisted guidance kit at the Singapore Airshow aimed at improving accuracy of unguided anti-armor rockets and pursuing Taiwanese Army certification by end-2026. * Taiwan Doubles Down on U.S. Partnership, Even as America’s Alliances Fray — Joyu Wang (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-doubles-down-on-u-s-partnership-even-as-americas-alliances-fray-a37f8120 — On 3 February 2026, the report says President Lai Ching-te pledged deeper U.S.–Taiwan trade and security ties focused on AI, drones, critical minerals, and non-China supply chains amid shifting alliance dynamics. * More Information Li

    25 min
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About

The LOWDOWN is an independent open-source intelligence (OSINT situational awareness report) covering competition, conflict, and coercive activity involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Western Hemisphere. lowdownosint.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Joshua Patten
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    55
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Joshua Patten
  • Show Website
    The LOWDOWN

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