Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • ५.० (२)
  • गुंतवणूक
  • प्रत्येक सप्ताहात अपडेट केलेले

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. ३ तासांपूर्वी

    We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue

    Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market. We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Markethttps://amzn.to/4f1H5Aw Meb Faber on Xhttps://x.com/MebFaber Main topics covered Why America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success story How joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economy Why studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatility The long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so much Why bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compounding How U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordained Why expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter today The role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returns Why diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay invested What gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narratives Why early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behavior How creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each era Why Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. market Timestamps 00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 200040:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S.50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb online

    १तास २मि.

  2. १ दिवसापूर्वी

    Labor Market Cracks, Wild Fed Credibility Data and Semis Running Out of Pie | Last Call

    In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Main topics covered Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles Timestamps 00:00 Intro01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

    १तास ५मि.

  3. ३ दिवसांपूर्वी

    The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies

    Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle. Warren Pies on X https://x.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ Caliban https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban Main topics covered Which bearish AI arguments actually matter for investors Why regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concern How data center spending is crowding out housing investment Why the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor market What GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demand Why open source AI is not yet replacing frontier models How token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usage Why semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycle How semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicals Why Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026 What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro risk Why 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth? 04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk 07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment 11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data 13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests 16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements 21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand 27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI 30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip 34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses? 38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market 42:15 What the oil shock means now 45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks 47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic? 50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities 54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research

    ५६ मिनिटे

  4. ४ दिवसांपूर्वी

    He Wrote the Book on Why Moats Fail | Ritavan on What Actually Compounds Instead

    Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and long-term compounding. We discuss why traditional moat checklists can miss the real source of value, how companies can build systems competitors cannot copy, and what investors should look for when AI changes the game. The System Gambit https://amzn.to/4b0J32I Main topics covered Why the traditional moat checklist can fail investors The three requirements for a true System Gambit How investors can evaluate business strategy from the outside Why code is not always the moat in the age of AI What history can teach investors about asymmetry and leverage Why AI adoption is not the same as AI value creation The difference between moving fast and understanding the game Lessons from Nokia, ASML, Amazon and Walmart How intangible investment and J curves can hide long-term value Why the best companies build compounding systems competitors cannot copy How investors can identify companies changing the game rather than optimizing the old one Timestamps 00:00 Opening preview and introduction 04:00 The three ingredients of a System Gambit 08:49 Why code is not the moat in AI software 13:00 Skanderbeg and changing the rules of the game 17:00 Good moats, good narratives and asymmetric advantage 22:31 Microscope vs telescope as a lesson for AI 28:35 AI winners, losers and high dispersion markets 32:08 Signal quality, bottlenecks and why AI adoption is not enough 36:00 Nokia, agility and the failure to build a causal model 40:15 Why understanding the game beats speed 44:00 Intangible investment, the J curve and ASML's hidden edge 49:54 The contrarian AI thesis behind The System Gambit 54:00 How to recognize a real System Gambit 58:27 Amazon, Walmart and multi-paradigm compounding 1:03:00 Prime, FBA and platform leverage 1:07:00 Walmart's answer to Amazon 1:11:06 Closing thoughts and where to find Ritavan

    १तास १२मि.

  5. २७ जून

    The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated

    On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades. ⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple⁠ The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game⁠ https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ⁠ Main topics covered Why SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor discipline How Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winner Why great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong price The danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysis Why many AI features may not create real customer value What the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeouts Why investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptional How to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impact Why capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scale How to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trust Why the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the way What rational exuberance might look like for long-term investors Timestamps 00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing 04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much 08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work 12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge 16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real 21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature 25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations 29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights 34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation 38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies 43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market 47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns 52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance 56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game

    ५८ मिनिटे

  6. २४ जून

    We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong

    Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing. 7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECAST https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/ WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATE https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/ THE CASE FOR LIQUID ALTERNATIVES https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-case-for-liquid-alternatives-in-todays-environment_insights/ Main topics covered Why GMO sees the AI boom as a bubble investors may be able to navigate The difference between easy bubbles and hard bubbles in portfolio construction Lessons from the internet bubble, the global financial crisis and the 2021 duration bubble Why today’s market may be an earnings bubble, not just a valuation bubble How AI data center spending affects corporate profits before depreciation shows up Why transformational technologies do not always reward the companies building them The risk of circular financing, debt-funded AI spending and increasingly creative deal structures How IPOs, share issuance and market supply can pressure stock returns GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts and why international stocks look more attractive than U.S. stocks Why private equity portfolios may contain large hidden bets on small, lower-quality companies Timestamps 00:00 AI, earnings bubbles and market supply 00:58 Why Ben Inker thinks the AI bubble may be easier to navigate 02:43 What makes a bubble easy or hard for investors 08:12 Comparing risk and return in 2000, 2007, 2021 and today 14:42 Why optimizers and real clients see risk differently 17:02 What GMO learned from managing through past bubbles 19:08 How today compares to the 2000 internet bubble 20:00 Why this may be an earnings bubble 23:34 Semiconductors, memory makers and the capital cycle 25:00 How AI CapEx compares to railroads, electricity and fiber optics 29:33 Debt, circular financing and strange AI deals 34:32 Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market 40:00 How GMO builds seven-year asset class return forecasts 41:40 Why interest rates change fair value for stocks and bonds 45:32 Why international, value and small-cap stocks look more attractive 49:06 The case for a benchmark-free portfolio 55:21 What 700 leveraged buyouts reveal about private equity 01:02:00 How public portfolios can offset private equity risks 01:03:37 Why investors need to understand what they are paid for 01:08:27 Closing thoughts

    १तास ९मि.

  7. २२ जून

    Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith

    Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change. William Blair Investment Management https://im.williamblair.com/ The Problem With Quality https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-quality Topics covered: Why emerging markets are not one single trade How AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performance Why Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chain The role of the US dollar in emerging market returns Why EM index concentration is higher than many investors realize What past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildout How AI is changing the definition of quality investing Why China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and risk The long-term case for India despite high valuations How William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciation Why valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiples The one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investor Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market 08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes 13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns 18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains 24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process 28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets 33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers 37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge 42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge 47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks 52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade 56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors

    ५८ मिनिटे

  8. २० जून

    The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

    Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP. Tobias Carlisle on X https://x.com/Greenbackd Acquirers Funds https://acquirersfunds.com/ Topics covered: Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocks The case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycle Why equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shift Whether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumers The parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildouts How AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investment What the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychology Why base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platforms How disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industries The energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matter How Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEP Why quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costs Timestamps: 00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers 04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns 08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal 14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms 19:47 Who gets the profits from AI? 23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race 28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply 31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates 35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize? 36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles 41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade 45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions 47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios 54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing

    ५८ मिनिटे
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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