Hedge Heads

Blue Creek Commodities
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Commodity market discussion. We don't know where the market's going, but we have some ideas.

  1. This Corn Market Isn't Acting Like the Last Two Years

    5 days ago

    This Corn Market Isn't Acting Like the Last Two Years

    For the last two seasons, the corn market followed a familiar script: strong planting pace, ideal weather, and a steady grind lower into summer. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth explain why 2026 may be setting up very differently—and why treating this year like the last two could be a costly mistake. They break down the key differences already showing up across the western Corn Belt, including expanding dryness, elevated oil prices, and a market that feels far more sensitive to outside forces than it did during the record-yield years. The conversation digs into why a 179 yield would still be historically excellent, why the trade may be underestimating weather risk, and how Middle East tensions and inflation pressures could reshape commodity markets fast. The guys also discuss the growing confusion across grains, why corn still feels like it has untapped upside potential, what's changing in cattle, and why wheat may be more important than most traders realize right now. This is one of those years where flexibility may matter more than conviction.

    28 min
  2. This Market Could Explode Higher — Or Collapse Just as Fast

    19 May

    This Market Could Explode Higher — Or Collapse Just as Fast

    This week's Hedge Heads episode dives into one of the most difficult grain marketing environments producers have faced in years. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why today's market feels eerily similar to 2008, with rising oil prices, climbing interest rates, inflation fears, and geopolitical tension all colliding at once. The problem? Fundamentals still don't fully support the rally. Soybean and corn spreads continue to signal weak demand underneath the surface, even as headlines about China buying and Middle East tensions keep money flowing into commodities. That leaves producers stuck in a dangerous spot: markets could surge sharply higher if oil keeps climbing and weather turns threatening—or reverse violently just as fast if tensions cool and rains continue. Jon explains why keeping upside open has been the right strategy so far, why incremental sales may finally start making sense, and why watching crude oil may matter more than watching the USDA right now. They also discuss planting pace, drought concerns creeping around major growing regions, why volatility has become nearly impossible to hedge cleanly, and how quickly sentiment can shift in today's headline-driven trade. If you're trying to make grain marketing decisions in a market where nobody agrees on direction, this episode is essential listening.

    22 min
  3. Grain Markets Are Heating Up

    12 May

    Grain Markets Are Heating Up

    Oil is surging, wheat has finally woken up, and the grain markets are turning increasingly volatile. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why keeping the upside open has remained the right strategy, even as emotions rise alongside the markets. They discuss the inflation-driven rally across commodities, why wheat spreads are flashing warning signs, and how corn continues to show resilience despite heavy acreage expectations. The episode also dives into growing dryness concerns in the Northern Plains, record planting pace across the Midwest, and why the upcoming China summit and June USDA report could become major turning points for grain prices. On the livestock side, they explain why rising fuel costs and weaker beef demand could start pressuring cattle markets. The key message throughout the episode: stay disciplined, market incrementally on the way up, and be prepared for sharp reversals if oil or outside markets suddenly change direction.

    23 min
  4. Why This Is the Worst Time to Cap Your Upside

    7 May

    Why This Is the Worst Time to Cap Your Upside

    This is one of the most important—and most misunderstood—windows in grain marketing. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why the next five to six weeks can define your entire marketing year, and why locking in too much too early during this stretch can quietly limit your profitability. With markets swinging wildly on energy moves, uncertain global negotiations, and a weather pattern that's anything but clear, the temptation to "just take a price" is as strong as ever. But this is exactly when discipline matters most. The conversation centers around a simple idea: protect your downside without sacrificing your upside. Jon explains how using options can buy time during a volatile weather window, why many producers hesitate to pay for that flexibility, and how that hesitation often leads to more defensive—and less profitable—marketing over time. They also dig into the broader market picture, including erratic oil-driven volatility, a potentially drier-than-expected western weather pattern, and the ongoing tug-of-war in cattle markets where strong prices are starting to meet resistance from demand. The bottom line: this isn't the time to guess where the market is going—it's the time to structure a plan that keeps you open to opportunity while managing risk.

    23 min
  5. The 7-Week Window That Sets Your Entire Crop Year

    27 Apr

    The 7-Week Window That Sets Your Entire Crop Year

    This is it—the stretch of the year where grain marketing decisions matter most. From now through mid-June, markets tend to find their highs, but this year isn't coming with an easy story. Planting progress is running ahead of normal, conditions look about as ideal as they can be, and yet money continues to pour into commodities, keeping prices elevated without strong fundamental backing. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down the tension between a market that wants to go higher and one that may not have the news to justify it. They discuss why heavy fund length makes grains vulnerable, how inflation-driven money flow is distorting price signals, and why soybeans look particularly unstable despite holding firm. The conversation also dives into strategy—why protecting the downside without capping upside is becoming more relevant, where premium opportunities may show up, and why having a plan in place right now separates strong marketers from everyone else. With the June acreage report looming and weather narratives about to take over, this episode focuses on one thing: making sure you don't miss the window that defines your year.

    26 min
  6. This Feels Like 2008… But Not Where You Think

    21 Apr

    This Feels Like 2008… But Not Where You Think

    Markets are moving higher—but the foundation underneath them isn't telling the same story. In this episode, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down a growing disconnect across the grain markets, where soybeans are climbing on fragile footing while corn is quietly strengthening in ways that matter. They explain why this rally has echoes of 2008, how inflation-driven buying can create opportunity—and risk—and why spreads and carry are flashing warning signs in beans. The conversation shifts to strategy, including how to think about protecting downside with options, why patience still matters in corn, and what early signals in the cash market could mean for the months ahead. If you're trying to separate real demand from headline-driven moves, this episode lays out what to watch next.

    29 min
  7. Thee Grain Lady Joins: Why Marketing Isn't One-Size-Fits-All

    14 Apr

    Thee Grain Lady Joins: Why Marketing Isn't One-Size-Fits-All

    This week's episode brings a different perspective to Hedge Heads with special guest Ashley—better known as @TheeGrainLady on X. Her path into agriculture didn't follow the typical route, but it led her to one core belief: marketing should work for the farmer, not the system. Ashley breaks down the critical difference between selling grain and actually managing risk, and why too many producers rely on a single outlet instead of a full strategy. The conversation digs into how basis, logistics, and geography can completely change outcomes—especially in places like North and South Dakota, where marketing is far less forgiving. They also tackle the importance of discipline, understanding your true breakeven, and why combining cash, futures, and structured strategies matters more than ever. As planting season approaches, the group looks ahead to acreage uncertainty, rising input costs, and a market that could shift quickly depending on weather and demand. This isn't just a conversation about markets—it's about how to think differently about risk, strategy, and making better decisions when the stakes are highest.

    44 min

  8. 7 Apr

    The Market Looks Strong… But Something Isn't Right

    After a short break, the Hedge Heads crew is back—and the market hasn't gotten any easier to read. Money has poured into commodities on a renewed food inflation narrative, but the structure underneath isn't confirming the move. Oil has taken center stage, pulling attention across every market, yet grains are starting to disconnect in ways that raise more questions than answers. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why soybeans may be the most vulnerable market right now, what warning signs are showing up in cattle despite strong prices, and why corn could quietly be setting up for a much bigger move later this year—even if the short-term outlook remains murky. They also dig into the impact of fund positioning, why spreads are flashing caution signs, and how outside forces—from energy markets to global politics—are distorting normal price behavior. This is a market full of opportunity—but timing, more than ever, is everything.

    33 min
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About

Commodity market discussion. We don't know where the market's going, but we have some ideas.

Information

  • Creator
    Blue Creek Commodities
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    114
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2024
  • Show Website
    Hedge Heads

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