Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

S3 Partners
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Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

  1. 5 days ago

    Selloffs, Squeezes & a July 4th Bull Case for America!

    Bitcoin's been cut in half — is the crypto winter just getting started? Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan break down the data behind the selloff, and why S3's positioning numbers on Strategy (MSTR) signal more pain ahead: a dilution spiral where the company issued shares, converts and then preferred shares, forcing an endless hunt for funding to hold the price up. Bob ties it to David Einhorn's classic Allied Capital short — you can't fight a stock while the money keeps flowing, in either direction. Away from the data desk, Charlie gets into why Europe is at war with air conditioning, Comcast's NBCUniversal spinoff and the failure of the media-conglomerate model, and why independent media is eating legacy TV's lunch. On the S3 side, four names are on the radar: Wendy's (WEN), a meme and battleground stock on ten-year-high short interest and a Reddit-fueled surge; the memory/DRAM sector, where shorts and passive money pile in as active investors flee; healthcare, the most crowded hedge-fund long. All capped with a July 4th case for American optimism! Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. 00:00 Intro — Bob Sloan, S3, and the "data drives news" ethos 04:57 Crypto winter: Bitcoin halves from $120K 09:23 Crypto infrastructure and the long-term bull case 10:15 MSTR: dilution death spiral? 16:13 Einhorn's Allied Capital — you can't short the funding 18:09 IBIT short interest: watching for the bottom 19:35 Europe's war on air conditioning 25:59 Comcast spins off NBCUniversal 30:41 Why the media-conglomerate model keeps failing 35:20 Independent media is winning — a million views on positioning 40:20 Wendy's (WEN): meme stock & battleground setup 43:26 Memory/DRAM sector: shorts and passive money surge 44:44 Healthcare: the most crowded hedge-fund long since 2021 53:33 July 4th sign-off: the case for American optimism

    1hr 2min

  2. 25 Jun

    Positioning Is Everything: The Seventh Category of Market Data

    Charlie Gasparino opens with the headlines he's been breaking: the Paramount-Skydance bid for Warner Bros. getting a pass from the Trump administration, why two progressive state AGs could still tie up the $81 billion deal, and the puzzle of why Cory Booker is fighting Trump's bipartisan college sports reform. Then S3 Partners founder and managing partner Bob Sloan makes the case for "the seventh category of market data"—the daily battle between passive flows, active managers, and short interest that's quietly reshaping how stocks move. The pair dig into Q2's biggest short squeezes, why energy left an "air pocket" below the April top, and the live Micron earnings playing out as levered hedge-fund dollars square off against record passive ownership. Plus: the "Magnificent Ten," why space shorts only target pre-revenue names, and SpaceX shedding $250 billion in a single day. Broadcast June 24, 2026. Chapter Breakdown 00:00 — Intro 01:34 — Paramount-Skydance, Warner Bros. & the Antitrust Fight 07:09 — TikTok, Media Consolidation & the AG Lawsuit Threat 10:07 — College Sports Reform & the Cory Booker Puzzle 12:11 — Space Falls $250B in a Day — The Size of Alibaba 20:47 — Lockup Overhangs, Supply & Short Interest Spikes 22:04 — The Seventh Category of Market Data 25:33 — Energy: No Shorts, One-Way Bet & the Air Pocket 28:23 — Micron & Qualcomm: The Levered vs. Unlevered Dollar 30:40 — Qualcomm's Widening Ownership Gap & 5-Year-High Shorts 33:38 — The "Magnificent Ten" and the AI Proxy Trade 37:24 — Space Sector: Shorts Target Pre-Revenue Names 39:50 — Reading the SpaceX S-1: A $28 Trillion TAM 47:13 — Kevin Warsh, AI at the Fed & the Data Mandate 50:04 — The $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Problem 52:38 — Where to Catch Bob Next & Wrap Want the data behind the discussion? S3 Partners is the only complete data set for long and short positioning. Follow Risk & Return for a new edition every week, and visit s3partners.com to see how the seventh category of market data can sharpen your trading. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an episode.

    54 min

  3. 19 Jun

    The $2 Trillion Space IPO, and the Most Crowded Trade Nobody's Talking About.

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan open on the biggest IPO event in years: SpaceX going public at a $2 trillion-plus valuation, a deal Charlie frames as a cultural moment and "a referendum on how the country feels about itself." They dig into the S-1 — the AI buildout, the Starlink and xAI pieces folded in, the ~$100B raised across debt and equity — and Bob's central question for any pre-cash-flow company: when does the cash-burn number get to zero? On the short side, Bob notes the data is too volatile in the first weeks to read cleanly, estimating only around 10 million shares short — light for a deal this size. Then Bob brings the S3 data content, starting with hedge fund positioning by sector. Tech is the biggest HF long at 28% of all long positions, yet that trails its 32% market-cap weight — so funds are underweight tech and hedging it right at index levels. The real signal is Health Care, the most crowded trade on a percentage-of-float basis, flashing red on both crowding and capacity. Bob then walks the space sector shorts, where short interest tracks business maturity rather than the "space" label, Z-scores reveal conviction, and thematic ETFs see almost no activity as managers make targeted single-name bets — with Virgin Galactic seeing steadily mounting short interest. The back half turns to the Fed holding rates under Kevin Warsh, the Iran memorandum of understanding and its effect on oil and gas prices, and a closer look at New York City's cash crunch under the new mayor — widening municipal bond spreads, the reluctance to issue revenue anticipation notes, and why it could be a canary in the coal mine. Closing notes on private supper clubs, the Bruno brothers, and a feel-good podcast story. For more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners. com 00:00 — Opening 01:37 — The $2 Trillion Space IPO: A Cultural Moment 04:07 — Reading the S-1: When Does Cash Burn Get to Zero? 09:48 — Short Interest on Space Stocks: Selective 25:02 — S3 Data: Hedge Fund Positioning by Sector 28:19 — Health Care Is Flashing Red: The Most Crowded Trade 30:35 — Space Sector Shorts, Z-Scores, and Virgin Galactic 32:57 — The Fed, Oil, and the Iran Memorandum35:00 — NYC's Cash Crunch: A Canary in the Coal Mine 43:13 — Feel-Good Stories and Supper Clubs 49:01 — Closing Thoughts

    50 min

  4. 12 Jun

    The SpaceX IPO, APAC Long/Short Positioning & What Iran Means for the 10-Year

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan broadcast from their respective vacations for a wide-ranging vacation edition of Risk & Return. Charlie opens with a media spat over his California election comments and a broader critique of the mainstream press before pivoting to the real market story: the SpaceX IPO priced at a staggering $75 billion. Bob breaks down how the KOSPI short call from last week played out — semis got hit hard — and walks through APAC positioning trends, Wolfspeed's convert arb dynamics, and Maersk's covering-led squeeze risk. The duo also revisit the Andrew Left verdict: was this a criminal case or a compliance failure? And with Iran tensions escalating and the 10-year yield climbing, Bob and Charlie weigh what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might do next — and what traders can't afford to ignore going into the weekend. Chapters: 00:00 — Opening 02:25 — Media Criticism: CNN, the California Election Story & Mail-In Ballot Debate 09:00 — New York's Decline, Bari Weiss at CBS & the State of Political Media 15:45 — Markets Check: KOSPI Shorts Pay Off, CPI Anxiety & the 10-Year Yield 25:50 — APAC Short Interest, Wolfspeed Convert Arb & Maersk Squeeze Risk 31:20 — SpaceX IPO: $75 Billion, Retail Allotments & Lessons from the Facebook Debacle 35:50 — Toe-to-Toe on Left: Compliance Failures, Jack Welch, and Moving Markets 43:00 — Wrap-Up For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com

    46 min

  5. 4 Jun

    Market Positioning, the Short Seller on Trial & Media's Power Shift

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market and media stories — from the criminal conviction of short seller Andrew Left to the AI positioning battles playing out across space, software, and satellite stocks. Bob unpacks why S3's "battleground stocks" framework — the seventh category of market data — matters more than ever in an index-dominated market, with fresh positioning data on Intuitive Machines (LUNR), AST SpaceMobile, UiPath, and Virgin Galactic. Plus: Charlie's reporting on David Ellison's Hollywood power plays, Jamie Dimon's $20B war chest, the future of CBS and CNN news, and whether AI is about to obliterate the white-collar workforce. For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com Chapters: 00:00 — Intro: 40 years of Wall Street crashes and bailouts 03:37 — The Andrew Left conviction: did the feds criminalize short selling? 15:45 — UK short-disclosure rules and S3's real-time disclosure tracker 25:38 — Charlie's scoop: David Ellison, Paramount, and the battle for CBS 35:45 — Jamie Dimon's $20B: Carlyle's private credit in the crosshairs 37:40 — Bob's call: bearish on Guidewire (GWRE) into earnings 38:20 — The seventh category of market data: how S3 coined "battleground stocks" 39:58 — AST SpaceMobile: betting against Starlink 45:35 — Intuitive Machines (LUNR): shorts stuck as notional doubles to $950M 46:34 — The great AI debate: "obliterated" vs. the Bezos view 53:58 — Virgin Galactic and the SpaceX-driven short squeeze 54:44 — The KOSPI as an AI/semiconductor battleground proxy 56:26 — Iran, Hormuz, and closing thoughts

    1hr 1min

  6. 28 May

    Iran at the Point of No Return, AI's Atomic Moment, and the S3 Earnings Model

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan are back together for a wide-ranging episode covering the Iran standoff, Fed Chair Warsh's long game, David Solomon's DJ return (?), and S3's earnings model scorecard. Bob breaks down why economic pressure beats military force ("I'll trade treasure for blood any day"), and walks through last week's 2-for-3 earnings calls. Then Bob gets real about how S3 Partners uses AI internally, from daily monitoring agents to collateral production. Plus: the Oppenheimer analogy AI leaders need to hear, and a Gap earnings setup. Bob Sloan is the founder and managing partner of S3 Partners. Charlie Gasparino is a senior correspondent at Fox Business and columnist for the New York Post. For more information on the data discussed on the episode visit S3Partners.com 00:00 Intro & Bob's Back02:26 Iran: Treasure vs. Blood09:18 Oil, the Fed & Warsh's Long Game11:49 Earnings Scorecard: 2 for 317:49 Charlie's Week: DJ D Sol Update24:36 How S3 Actually Uses AI38:45 AI for Government: The Clarity Act & Common Identifiers44:08 Gap Bullish Pick & Sign-OffThis program and all contents are informational only and should not be construed as investment advice.

    48 min

  7. 21 May

    Semi Shorts Hold the Line, Wendy's Heats Up & Warsh's "Triple Mandate"

    Charlie Gasparino and S3's Sam Pierson break down what the positioning data says heading into a packed earnings week — plus Charlie's takes on the new Fed chair's impossible mandate, Wall Street CEOs interacting with NYC's mayor, and the Iran/oil purgatory weighing on markets. This week: → Kevin Warsh's triple mandate: inflation, employment, and Donald Trump→ Why Jamie Dimon and David Solomon need to draw a line with NYC's mayor→ Iran, oil near $100, and why shorts aren't re-engaging→ S3 earnings model: Bearish on Williams-Sonoma, Walmart & BJ's Wholesale→ Inside the Buy Side: U.S. semi shorts target large-cap — NVDA is the #1 single-name short in the S&P 500 at $62.5B notional→ QCOM short P&L swings $3.5B in six weeks — pain without capitulation→ Battleground stocks: Wendy's SI up 94% YTD amid Trian take-private speculation→ Convertible arbitrage explained, and why it inflates headline short interest To learn more about the data featured in the episode visit s3partners.com or follow @S3Partners on X. 00:00 — Intro02:04 — Kevin Warsh's Triple Mandate: Inflation, Employment & Trump03:21 — NYC Mayor vs. Wall Street: Dimon, Solomon & the Ken Griffin Fallout09:10 — Iran, Oil & Market Purgatory15:37 — New Picks: WSM, WMT & BJ — All Bearish17:19 — Inside the Buy Side: U.S. Semi Shorts Target Large-Cap19:36 — The Biggest Semi Shorts Held Through the Rally22:14 — Passive Flows Are Doing the Heavy Lifting23:09 — NVDA: $62.5B of Shorts Meets Earnings Night24:03 — QCOM: $3.5B Swing, No Capitulation24:47 — Battleground Stocks & Convertible Arb Explained31:24 — Headlines: Larry Fink Pay Vote & Fed Minutes38:32 — Wendy's: SI Doubles as Trian Circles a Take-Private42:08 — Outro

    43 min

  8. 14 May

    The Narrative Says Moon. The Positioning Says Not So Fast.

    The narrative says to the moon — but the positioning says not so fast. Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan break down the growing credibility gap between what Wall Street is saying and what the money is actually doing. This week: the most shorted stocks are quietly outperforming every index, semiconductor short positions are accelerating faster than longs, S3 data is flashing major warning signs on Blue Owl and private credit, cannabis banking could unlock a 10x opportunity, and Ryan Cohen's GME/eBay bid gets the Milken reality check. (0:00) Cold Open(0:39) Welcome & Intro(3:00) Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair(7:20) Most Shorted Stocks Outperforming (13:30) Cannabis Banking & the SAFER Act(21:28) Grok Top 10: The Stocks X Cares About(25:00) Semiconductor Positioning vs. Narrative(34:33) Blue Owl: Warning Signs in Private Credit(41:16) Pick of the Week: RBC Bearings(42:00) One Year Anniversary & Closing To learn more about the data discussed on the show visit S3Partners.com

    48 min
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Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

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