The Missing Middle Podcast

Cara Stern, Mike Moffatt, and Meredith Martin
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Welcome to the Missing Middle, a podcast about why the middle class in Canada is disappearing. We hope to help you understand why life is becoming unaffordable for so many in this country, and what can be done to reverse course.

  1. The Sneaky Tax Hike Nobody Voted For

    1 DAY AGO

    The Sneaky Tax Hike Nobody Voted For

    Are provincial governments raising your taxes in secret?  Economist Mike Moffatt and columnist Sabrina Maddeaux expose the hidden mechanism of bracket creep, a stealth tax increase impacting millions of Canadians. Because fixed-tax brackets in provinces like B.C., Manitoba, and Ontario fail to adjust for inflation, middle-class workers are automatically pushed into higher tax tiers, forcing them to pay taxes as though they are wealthy even though their purchasing power remains flat. We dive into why this particularly clobbers income-dependent younger Canadians (Millennials and Gen Z) and how Ontario's outdated surtax thresholds, which can be triggered by an income of less than $110,000, are punishing effort and driving out-migration. More than just money, this quiet revenue tool lacks democratic accountability, eroding trust in institutions and revealing a tax code desperately in need of a full rethink. Key Topics: Bracket Creep, Stealth Taxes, Tax Policy, Inflation, Middle Class, Ontario Surtax, Mike Moffatt, Sabrina Maddeaux, Canadian Politics, Economic Inequality, Tax Reform. Chapters: 00:00 Bracket Creep and its Impact on Purchasing Power 02:32 The Accountability Issue: Why Stealth Tax Increases Matter 04:06 How Bracket Creep Hits Income Earners and the Generational Divide 06:17 The Problem with Ontario's Outdated Surtax Thresholds 08:36 Political Ramifications and the Erosion of Trust in Institutions 10:10 The Need for a Tax Code Rethink Research/links:Sabrina's National Post column (source document): Sabrina Maddeaux: Provinces are profiting from your inflationary pain | National Post Canadian Taxpayers Federation report on Manitoba bracket freeze: Newsroom Kelowna Capital News on BC bracket freeze revenue projections: Detailing B.C.’s tax changes in Budget 2026, including income tax increases | Kelowna Capital News Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    13 min
  2. How to Save $130,000 on Your New Home in Ontario

    6 DAYS AGO

    How to Save $130,000 on Your New Home in Ontario

    For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build. In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes.  Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally. If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem. Chapters: 00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges 01:22 - Overview of HST Changes 01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates 02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers 05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception 07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer? 09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform 10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees 11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers? 12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit 14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts Research/links: Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/ Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    16 min
  3. The Inflation Number You Hear vs. The One You Feel

    1 APR

    The Inflation Number You Hear vs. The One You Feel

    If inflation is only around 2–3%, why does everything feel so much more expensive? In this episode, we break down how inflation is actually measured, and why your personal experience can feel completely disconnected from the official numbers. From grocery bills and gas prices to rent and mortgages, not all price increases hit the same way—and some matter a lot more than others. We also dig into the hidden forces shaping your cost of living: shrinkflation, quality drops (“chocolatey” vs. chocolate), and the limits of how agencies like Statistics Canada track price changes. The result? A single inflation number that masks wildly different realities depending on how you live, spend, and earn. In other words: there isn’t one inflation rate. There are millions. Chapters  00:00 Intro: Why We Underestimate Inflation 00:28 Official Stats vs. Public Perception 01:20 Breaking Down the "Spending Basket" 02:07 Why Every Family Experiences Inflation Differently 03:33 Why Reading & Media Prices are Dropping 04:04 Biggest Price Jumps & Surprises 05:56 The Reality of Shrinkflation at the Grocery Store 06:46 The Kraft Dinner Test: Smaller Sizes, Same Price 07:43 Cutting Ingredients: Chocolate vs. "Chocolaty" 09:03 Housing & Shelter Inflation 11:46 Boomers vs. Gen Z: Who Wins in High Interest Rates? 12:55 Final Thoughts: One Economy, Multiple Realities Research Links: Consumer Price Index and Inflation Perceptions in Canada: Can measurement approaches or behavioural factors explain the gap? https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021017-eng.htm Shrinking products, rising prices: Food-specific quantity adjustments in the Consumer Price Index https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2025016-eng.htm  Greedy bastards. This just happened in the past few weeks. https://www.reddit.com/r/loblawsisoutofcontrol/comments/1s116uj/greedy_bastards_this_just_happened_in_the_past/  Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    14 min
  4. Paige Saunders: Why the US and Canada are Trapped (and how New Zealand escaped)

    27 MAR

    Paige Saunders: Why the US and Canada are Trapped (and how New Zealand escaped)

    In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern sits down with YouTuber Paige Saunders to discuss the one structural glitch that is sabotaging Canada’s economy, healthcare, and housing market: our electoral system. While most democracies have moved on to Proportional Representation, Canada remains stuck with a model that empowers swing ridings and ignores millions of voters. Paige explains why this monopoly on power prevents real innovation and how a simple change in how we vote could lead to a 20% performance increase across the board. In this video: How our voting system benefits wealthy peopleWhich voting system would a villain choose?Why Ranked Choice is a trap for multi-party democracies.The path forward: Why we need a binding Citizens' Assembly.Check out Paige Saunders' channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PaigeMTL Chapters: 00:37 Intro: The hidden force behind Canada’s biggest problems 01:12 What’s broken about Canada’s voting system 01:48 How swing ridings control the country 04:03 Why politicians ignore entire groups of voters 05:26 Does proportional representation hurt suburbs? 06:59 Populism, power, and lack of accountability 08:59 Why this won’t magically fix housing 10:17 Why politicians refuse to change the system 11:11 Why most Canadians don’t even notice the problem 12:58 Is Canada heading down the US/UK path? 15:13 Why electoral reform keeps failing 19:40 The real barrier to change 24:24 The AI test: which system is worst? 29:12 “I was shocked Canada still uses this” 32:28 Is Canada falling behind on democracy? 36:03 Can anything actually force reform? 40:00 What a better system could look like 42:45 Final thoughts: a more Canadian democracy Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    44 min
  5. Second-Time Buyers Are Screwed (And Ignored)

    25 MAR

    Second-Time Buyers Are Screwed (And Ignored)

    You built equity, planned ahead, and did everything right, so why is the next step on the housing ladder completely out of reach? Canada’s housing crisis is usually framed around first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. But a growing number of Canadians already made that leap and are now stuck. Couples who bought small condos with the expectation of eventually upgrading are discovering that the path forward has quietly disappeared. In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux unpack the rise of the “trapped” second-time homebuyer; households in their late 20s to early 40s who did everything right, built equity, and planned ahead, only to find that larger, family-sized homes are further out of reach than ever. With prices outpacing incomes, policy focused on first-time buyers, and a shortage of suitable homes, the traditional housing ladder no longer works. What happens when an entire generation can’t move up, even after getting in? And what does it mean for family formation, economic mobility, and the future of Canada’s housing system? Chapters: 00:00 The "Broken Ladder": Canada’s Second-Time Homebuyer Crisis 00:58 Trapped in the Starter Home:The Condo Squeeze 03:01 The Over-Focus on Shoebox Condos vs. Family Homes 04:13 How the Housing Dream Changed 05:44 Is the “Condo-to-Detached” Model a Ponzi Scheme? 06:39 The “Goldilocks” Scenario for Sustainable Housing Gains 08:16 Polling Data: What Ontarians Actually Care About 10:17 The Case for Extending HST Rebates Beyond First-Time Buyers 11:11 Policy Dorks vs. The Public: Finding Common Ground 14:00 Property Taxes: The "Political Third Rail" 15:45 Should Housing Rules Be Handled by the Province? 16:35 Why Down Payment Support Might Be Hurting More Than Helping 18:43 Renters’ Rights & The Future of Canadian Housing Research Links: New OREA survey finds Ontarians support change and transparency in housing costs and policies Housing in Ontario: Perceptions, Impacts, And Solutions Unlocking Homeownership: What Canadians Want from Housing Policy A Blueprint to Restore Homeownership for Young Canadians Is Ontario Ready to Spend $895M to Jumpstart Homebuilding? Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    23 min
  6. The Meritocracy Myth: Is Canada Still the Land of Opportunity?

    20 MAR

    The Meritocracy Myth: Is Canada Still the Land of Opportunity?

    Is Canada still a “land of opportunity,” or has your success become a function of who your parents are? In this segment, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into the uncomfortable reality of meritocracy in Canada. While Boomers largely believe hard work still pays off, Millennials and Gen Z are seeing a different story. We break down the latest Ipsos polling data and Statistics Canada research that shows social mobility is eroding. From the "Housing Theory of Everything" to the widening gap between equal opportunity and equal outcomes, we explore why the rules of the game have changed, and what we need to fix to make Canada fair again. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Defining Meritocracy 1:12 Is Canada a Meritocracy?  02:41 Measuring Meritocracy Income and Polls 04:23 Generational Divide in Ipsos Poll 05:54 Fairness Equal Opportunity vs Outcomes 07:15 Economists on Eroding Social Mobility 09:07 Increasing Distrust in Institutions & Distrust of Politicians 09:47 Changing Minds Understanding New Realities 11:13 Housing Crisis and Social Mobility 12:45 The Role of Effort combined with Environment Research/links: Generational Disconnect In Canada Ipsos Equalities Index 2025 - A 31-country Global Advisor Study https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2025-08/generational-disconnect-in-Canada.pdf Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada International Fairness Day 2024: Canada’s commitment to fairness for every generation is more than an empty slogan – but it’s not yet a reality https://www.if.org.uk/2024/11/18/international-fairness-day-2024-canadas-commitment-to-fairness-for-every-generation-is-more-than-an-empty-slogan-but-its-not-yet-a-reality/ A retreat from opportunity: Is the Canadian dream still alive? https://thehub.ca/2025/11/10/deepdive-a-retreat-from-opportunity-is-the-canadian-dream-still-alive/ Intergenerational income mobility in Canada: Research highlights from two recent studies https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00001-eng.htm Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    16 min
  7. The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data

    18 MAR

    The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data

    In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality. Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions. Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead. In this episode, we discuss: Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleadingThe difference between housing starts and real time market conditionsWhy Canada is building smaller homesThe composition effect changing housing trendsWhat falling pre construction sales signal for the future Chapters: 00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect 00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data 00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics 00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem 00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size 00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects 00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales 00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook  Research Links CMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook  Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    10 min
  8. Why You Can’t Find a Rental for Your Family (It’s Not Just the Price)

    13 MAR

    Why You Can’t Find a Rental for Your Family (It’s Not Just the Price)

    Looking for a family-sized apartment in Canada feels almost impossible. In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why they’re so rare in Canadian cities and why building regulations, zoning, and outdated fire safety rules make larger units nearly impossible to construct. Restrictive codes, high costs, and policy gaps mean that families often end up squeezed into spaces that don’t meet their needs or leave cities entirely. This shortage has shaped urban life, contributed to declining family formation in cities, and limited opportunities for young families. Are regulations really protecting people, or are they unintentionally blocking the housing Canadians need? In this episode, we discuss: Regulatory Barriers: How building codes and zoning prevent the creation of family-sized apartments. Comparisons with Europe: Why families in cities like Paris and Berlin live comfortably in apartments. Unintended Consequences: How rules meant to improve safety or quality actually reduce housing options. Policy and Change: What it would take to create a housing system that truly supports families. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:42 Challenges Finding Family-Sized Rental Apartments 01:54 How European Families Live in City Apartments 02:46 Why European-Style Apartment Units Are Illegal Here 03:40 North American Apartment Layouts Create Space Issues 04:15 Unintended Consequences of Prescriptive Building Codes 04:57 pop up https://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_Nchgx 05:03 pop up https://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEB 06:05 Structural Problems in Housing Regulations 08:07 Zoning Makes Low-Rise Family Apartments Difficult 09:48 Optimism and Next Steps for Policy Change Research/links: Why we can’t build family-sized apartments in North America https://www.centerforbuilding.org/article/why-we-cant-build Why Single Stairways are Heaven for Homebuilding https://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEB How Elevator Rules Cost Us Homes https://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_Nchgx North America's Elevator Problem https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1_qVdekYM&t=1s Addressing the concerns around single-staircase apartments https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozwkP9Zsi0Y Why We Don't Build More Apartments for Families | Odd Lots https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76IHpt6q9ME Broken Zoning: Why We Can’t Fix the Housing Crisis Without a Map https://youtu.be/yuAsjJsiuyQ?si=1DDXn4pIGUvSjmgC Single Stair Buildings for San Francisco: The Key to Building Small Scale Infill Housing https://openscopestudio.com/single-stair-buildings-for-san-francisco-the-key-to-building-small-scale-infill-housing/ Why Are Housing Costs So High? The Elevator Can Explain Why. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/opinion/elevator-construction-regulation-labor-immigration.html Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    11 min
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About

Welcome to the Missing Middle, a podcast about why the middle class in Canada is disappearing. We hope to help you understand why life is becoming unaffordable for so many in this country, and what can be done to reverse course.

Information

  • Creator
    Cara Stern, Mike Moffatt, and Meredith Martin
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    167
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Missing Middle Podcast
  • Show Website
    The Missing Middle Podcast

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