Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
the Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywherehttps://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/
QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21st
AP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENINhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00
RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growthhttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.html
The Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Nowhttps://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/
NYT Nov 14, 1939https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.html
Time Magazine May 30, 1938https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.html
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvA
USA Todayhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find work
Bloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=all
Bloomberg  KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreads
ISM Manufacturing Press Releasehttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
the Conference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
Texas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-comments
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FDIC Press Releasehttps://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-deposits
Republic First's last SEC filinghttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdf
Republic First's last posted balance sheethttps://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspx
Bloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic Firsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-first
Bloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Dealhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-deal
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU