In this edition of The KE Report, I sat down with Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets and Editor of the Marc to Market website, to unpack another full week of macroeconomic data. We focused on the US jobs report, GDP estimates for Q2, the mid-week European central bank meeting where Kevin Warsh spoke, the shift to an annual review of the Mexico/Canada/America (“MCA”) trade agreement, further geopolitics effects of tariffs and the Strait of Hormuz supply shock, and how all of that factors into interest rates, currencies, and international markets. Key Discussion Points: Jobs Report Metrics Come In Weaker Than Expected: The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US added just 57,000 jobs in June, a slowdown from previous months and below the 113,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate, however, ticked down to 4.2%, below the expected 4.3%. Marc gets under-the-hood and looks at the nuances of the regular revisions to the jobs data, the nature of the data collection and inherent challenges with getting it all in a timely basis, and how the low participation rate effected the unemployment rate. The Atlanta-based GDP Now Forecasts ~1.2% GDP Growth in Q2: While this number is also subject to revision when the official number comes out, and is contrast to Bloomberg’s 2.2% GDP growth estimate, it highlights a reduction in growth in Q2 versus Q1. When contrasting the 1.2% GDP growth estimate versus the May inflation reading at 4.2% area, some economists point to negative growth in “real” inflation-adjusted terms and point to this being stagflation. Marc weighs in on the conversation and is less convinced of the economy being in that kind of dire stagflationary pressure, and lays out the case for steady growth and how different segments of the economy are in different situations. Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy: A few weeks after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting, and after getting more comments from him this last week at the European Central Bank Forum, the market is pricing in a hawkish trajectory for the end of the year; with 1.5 hikes prices in. This is affecting the short-end of the bond yield curve, while the longer-dated treasury yields are flattening. Mark weighs in on the key takeaways in these trends as well as where "real" inflation-adjusted interest rates are coming in. International Market Movers: Widening the scope beyond US markets, we discuss interest rates, currencies, and stock markets abroad from Europe to Asia, and the trends and moves by specific countries that have Marc’s attention. Mexico/Canada/America (“MCA”) Trade Agreement Goes To Annual Review: Marc highlights that now that July 1st deadline has come and gone, the MCA is still intact, but now goes to an annual renewal and review for the next decade. This brings up the larger discussion around North American trade and economies of scale between the 3 countries, and the benefits of the MCA versus bilateral trade agreements. Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock Effects Multiply: While the MOU for the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on unsure footing, there has been a significant drop in crude oil prices over the last couple of weeks, easing some future inflation expectations. However, the resulting supply shock in fertilizers and pesticides, had an impact on farming in a year where the warmer weather effects from El Niño are anticipated to result in lower food yields. This is one of the big themes Marc will be watching for the balance of this year and setting up for 2027. Click here to visit Marc’s site – Marc To Market – https://www.marctomarket.com/ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
