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4 giu

Russia’s Changing Security Environment

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the strategic environment for Russia on its western border. The conflict has expanded the line of contact with NATO and the alliance’s partners in Ukraine, and it now stretches all the way from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea. The nature of the relationship has also changed profoundly, with NATO viewing Russia as a generational threat, and Ukraine emerging as an aggrieved and highly militarily capable nation keen to settle scores with the Kremlin. Advancements in technology have also revolutionized the war and made the strategic landscape far more worrisome for Russia. How does Moscow perceive these changes? And how might future generations of the state security establishment address the challenges? For more in-depth analysis, read Eugene Rumer’s paper, Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine.

4 giu

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26 min
18 giu

Why Armenia Voted For a Pro-Europe Future

While Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan campaigned on a pro-Europe platform in the pivotal vote, the opposition wanted to see the country take a more pro-Russia course. Despite clumsy Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the elections, Pashinyan was victorious. What does his win mean for Armenia, the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia’s ability to project power in the South Caucasus?

18 giu

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34 min
3 gg fa

Why Is the U.S. Restricting Access to Frontier AI?

The U.S. decision to restrict access to some of Anthropic's latest AI models over national security concerns directly affects EU-U.S. cooperation in cyberspace. Rym Momtaz, Raluca Csernatoni, and Louise Marie Hurel discuss what this means for Europe's strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:01] The Securitization of Frontier AI, [00:18:12] Different Access Levels to Frontier AI Models, [00:26:04] Government vs. Public Access to Frontier AI. Raluca Csernatoni, June 23, 2026, “Europe Needs a Strategy for its Turn to New Defense Tech,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Louise Marie Hurel, June 22, 2026, “Gatekeeping the Frontier: When AI Access Becomes a National Security Concern,” Royal United Services Institute. Louise Marie Hurel, Elijah Glantz, and Daniel Cuthbert, “Developing a Framework for Secure Third-Party Access to Frontier AI,” Royal United Services Institute. Rym Momtaz, ed., May 7, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz, May 5, 2026, “Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States,”Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Raluca Csernatoni, April 16, 2026, “The Fog of AI War,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Louise Marie Hurel, Pia Hüsch, et al., March 16, 2026, “Brief, Bold, and Beautiful? Reactions on the U.S. National Cyber Strategy,” Royal United Services Institute. Raluca Csernatoni, October 3, 2025, “Corporate Geopolitics: When Billionaires Rival States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “Tech Diplomacy 2.0: Examining the Intersections Between Industry and Governments in International Relations,” International Journal of Cyber Diplomacy. Raluca Csernatoni, June 2, 2025, “Can the EU Achieve its Tech Ambitions?,” Carnegie Europe.

3 gg fa

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36 min
12 giu

How a U.S.-China War Would Unfold

A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all sides and the world. Preventing such a war requires understanding how it might unfold—from start to finish—including worst-case scenarios. How much warning would there be? Where might China strike first? Which countries join the fight? Can Taiwan defend its coasts? Would nuclear threats determine the outcome? Charles Hooper is a retired U.S. general who served as one of the Pentagon’s top China strategists and spent years living in the country. He joined Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a step-by-step scenario for the war that no one wants. Find the episode transcript, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/how-a-us-china-war-would-unfold Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Lieutenant General (Ret.) Charles “Hoop” Hooper: https://x.com/LTG_CHooper 00:00 Introduction 01:42 Understanding China Through Military Engagement 09:54 How a Taiwan Conflict Could Begin 20:27 U.S. and Allied Responses 35:04 Global Economic Impact 39:03 Taiwan's Defense Prospects 47:14 Nuclear Escalation Risks 52:28 Avoiding Conflict and Looking Ahead

12 giu

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56 min
5 giu

The Real Middle East Crisis Hasn't Started Yet

The wars unleashed by October 7th have left the Middle East deeply fractured—Iran battered and defiant, Gaza destroyed, Israel militarized, the Gulf insecure and divided. And an even bigger disruption lies just ahead: the oil revenues that built the modern Arab world will halve by 2050, forcing countries to redesign themselves. Marwan Muasher—a former foreign minister of Jordan and now a VP at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—joins The World Unpacked to make sense of a region in flux. He explains why Washington should get tougher on Israel, Gulf countries may already have peaked in power, and the end of oil could be a good thing. Like and subscribe to our channel: https://bit.ly/38sljlH Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/in-the-new-middle-east-no-one-is-in-charge Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Marwan Muasher: https://x.com/MarwanMuasher

5 giu

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1h 6m
11 giu

Worlds Apart? The U.S. and Israel on Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon

As the U.S. led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off ramp, no relationship has been more important than the Trump administration’s with Israel. Are American and Israeli tactics and strategy on Iran unaligned, if not fundamentally at odds? What about on Lebanon and Gaza? And where does the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu stand, especially as Israel heads toward critical elections this fall? Join Aaron David Miller as engages the Institute for National Security Studies’ Danny Citrinowicz in a wide-ranging conversation analyzing the current state of the alliance and where the U.S.-Israel relationship goes from here, on Carnegie Connects.

11 giu

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50 min
15 mag

Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia

Russia’s surprising recent Internet shutdown did more than disrupt daily life: it also crippled the regime’s own communications and propaganda. It’s one of a series of strange events—from a diminished Victory Day parade to crackdowns on businesspeople and celebrities—that suggest growing disorder and confusion within the Russian state. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite. Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Alexandra Prokopenko: https://x.com/amenka

15 mag

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51 min
3 apr

What Trump Really Wants From China

President Trump was meant to fly to Beijing this week for major trade talks, but instead he’s staying home to manage the Iran War. It’s an apt metaphor for America’s decades-long failure to refocus on Asia and reckon with China’s rise. Does Trump have a plan for dealing with America’s top rival? If so, what is it? Ali Wyne is a perceptive analyst of U.S.-China competition and author of America’s Great Power Opportunity. He joined Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain why Beijing hasn’t saved Iran; what Washington’s bipartisan “consensus” on China still misses; and how Trump should negotiate when he finally sits down with Xi Jinping.

3 apr

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52 min
3 giu · Contenuti extra

Can Europe Rival the United States and China?

Europe is stuck between the United States’ market-driven dynamism and China’s state-led industrial strategy. Rosa Balfour, Noah Barkin, and Anu Bradford debate whether Europe can leverage its rulemaking power and emerging industrial agenda into genuine competitiveness. Anu Bradford, Noah Barkin, May 27, 2026, “Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?,” Carnegie Europe. Noah Barkin, January 6, 2026, "Watching China in Europe—January 2026," German Marshall Fund. Noah Barkin, December 1, 2025, "As Europe Dithers, the Cost of Derisking from China Rises," Rhodium Group. Noah Barkin, January 16, 2025, "Trump and the Europe-US-China Triangle," Rhodium Group. Anu Bradford, 2023, "Digital Empires. The Global Battle to Regulate Technology," Oxford University Press. Anu Bradford, 2023, "Europe’s Digital Constitution," Virginia Journal of International Law, Volume 64. Anu Bradford, 2019, "The Brussels Effect. How the European Union Rules the World," Oxford University Press. Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, "Dependence on the US is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset," Le Monde. Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, "The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forced His Climbdown," The Guardian. Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, "Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B.," Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

3 giu · Contenuti extra

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59 min
8 mag

What to Know Before Trump Attacks Cuba

There’s been remarkably little public debate about a potential U.S. attack on Cuba. President Trump said last week that he “will be taking over” Cuba “almost immediately”—and similar threats led to military action in both Venezuela and Iran. Javier Corrales, a political scientist at Amherst College and the son of Cuban exiles, joins The World Unpacked to game out this crisis. Javier and host Jon Bateman discuss Cuba’s economic vulnerability, its political staying power, and why Trump might wind up making a deal with the Castros very similar to one made by Barack Obama. Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Javier Corrales: https://x.com/jcorrales2011

8 mag

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51 min

Carnegie scholars and their global network of experts give their takes on foreign policy issues around the world.