Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • 0,0 (0)
  • Investimenti
  • Settimanale

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 21 h fa

    Peter Boockvar on AI, the Wealth Effect and the Two-Speed Economy

    Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners explains how AI demand can keep growing while the companies building data centers struggle to earn a return. CoreWeave has committed to years of lease payments. What happens if the price it can charge customers for computing power falls before those leases run out? The author of The Boock Report joins Matt Zeigler to trace who bears that risk. A lender, a chipmaker and an electrician building a data center all depend on the same project, but a slowdown reaches each of them differently. Boockvar draws on the history of the memory chip business to explain why a stock can look cheapest just as its earnings are peaking. They also look at the economy beyond AI. Boockvar compares what concert venues and hotel operators are hearing from customers, explains why reopening the Strait of Hormuz would still leave oil inventories to rebuild, and shares where he sees value in overseas stocks, healthcare and consumer staples. Topics covered: - How much hiring a data center supports during construction and after it opens - Why new memory chip supply matters to Micron shareholders even if demand keeps rising - How CoreWeave’s lease commitments and borrowing costs compare with IREN’s approach - Who could keep an existing data center running in a restructuring, and who loses orders if the next one never gets built - Why Peter Boockvar sees the Fed making smaller policy adjustments and watches the cost of financing AI projects - What sold-out concerts, travel bookings and hiring by industry reveal about the consumer - How depleted oil inventories could sustain demand for crude after shipping resumes - Where Peter Boockvar finds overlooked businesses outside the U.S. and in healthcare and consumer staples - What gold prices mean for miners’ margins and why refinancing matters for private credit Chapters: 00:00 How much of the economy depends on the AI buildout? 06:25 The workers who build data centers and the jobs that last 11:14 Micron and the trap of buying peak earnings 18:23 Who bears the losses if an AI infrastructure company defaults? 23:19 How AI financing costs enter the Fed’s rate debate 29:05 What concerts, hotels and hiring tell us about the consumer 37:03 Oil supply and the long job of rebuilding inventories 44:44 Looking overseas for overlooked stocks 49:42 The case for consumer staples and healthcare 56:52 Rush at Madison Square Garden and Peter Boockvar’s first concert Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. 1 g fa

    Last Call | Breaking Down the Post Election Decline

    Brent Kochuba, Ben Hunt, Aahan Menon and Eric Pachman join Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand on November’s Last Call to make sense of the post-election selloff and the pressures facing businesses and households. Brent Kochuba explains why the weakest AI cloud stocks caught his eye even while the Nasdaq was rallying. Ben Hunt argues the midterms changed what investors could take for granted about presidential power, with governors gaining a bigger say in where data centers get built. Aahan Menon traces how a decline in AI shares could reach the dinner table as households that grew wealthier on paper rethink their spending. Eric Pachman follows a different cost all the way to the grocery aisle. When diesel gets more expensive, a grocer has to decide how much of the freight bill to absorb and how much to pass on to shoppers. Topics covered: - Why Brent Kochuba watched the weakest AI cloud stocks for confirmation of the rally - How negative dealer gamma can amplify selling and why November options expiration matters - What Ben Hunt means by an election making the limits of presidential power “common knowledge” - Why governors, electricity bills and local jobs matter to the next data center permit - Why Aahan Menon sees little immediate change in federal spending after the midterms - How stock gains support consumer spending and data center investment feeds corporate profits - How Eric Pachman uses the Producer Price Index to see how many industries face unusual cost increases - Who borrowed oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and what it will take to return those barrels Guest research and links: Brent Kochuba | SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com/ SpotGamma on X https://x.com/spotgamma Ben Hunt | Perscient https://www.perscient.com/ Epsilon Theory on X https://x.com/EpsilonTheory Aahan Menon | Prometheus Research https://www.prometheus-macro.com/ Aahan Menon on X https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Eric Pachman | Data 4 The People https://www.data4thepeople.com/ How the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Works in 2026 https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/spr-exchange Chapters: 00:00 A post-election rally gives way to a Nasdaq selloff 05:06 Brent Kochuba on unwinding election hedges 12:05 The AI cloud stocks that missed the bounce 16:38 Negative gamma and what could break the selling cycle 26:28 Ben Hunt on what the election made common knowledge 37:31 Aahan Menon on fiscal policy and the AI wealth effect 43:03 What a slowdown in data center spending would mean for profits 48:35 Eric Pachman on price pressure across industries 57:31 Tanker traffic, freight costs and emergency oil loans 1:05:10 Who gets a say when a data center comes to town? 1:10:48 Political compromise and a Philadelphia sports story Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. 3 gg fa

    Mike Green on Passive Flows, Market Concentration and What Could Change the Cycle

    Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own. The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum. Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification. Topics covered: - Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices - Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs - Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand - Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows - How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior - Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization - Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts - Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying - Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies - What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flows Chapters: 00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs 05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment 11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows 16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum 21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts 26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power 30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy 35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies 43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work 48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency 53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike Green Tier1 Alpha Asset Management https://www.t1acapital.com/ Mike Green on X https://x.com/profplum99 Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. 4 gg fa

    Spending Is Up 7%. Paychecks Are Up 3%. What Happens When Stocks Stop Paying the Difference?

    Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising. Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash. The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis. Topics covered: - What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction - Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations - Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth - How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending - Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics - Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy - Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule - Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector - How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits - Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisis Chapters: 00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election 04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations 09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap 15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market 20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation 24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash 30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity 37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits 43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments 50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagree Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. 5 gg fa

    The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned | Michael Howell on What It Means for Investors

    Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold. Topics covered: - How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding - Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money - The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence - Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate - How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle - The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity - How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets - The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows - Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures - China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin Chapters: 00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity 04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding 09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle 14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks 18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination 22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle 29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms 33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands 41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility 46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures 50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy 55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  6. 6 gg fa

    Seven Stocks Are 41% of the S&P | John Davi on Building Portfolios Beyond the Mag 7 Bet

    John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds. Topics covered: - Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top - What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth - How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights - The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending? - Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short - What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers - Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout - How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation - What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdown Chapters: 00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk 05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth? 10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 500 14:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ 20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight 24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip 30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets 37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI 42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade 47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks 55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winners Research discussed: Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going? https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-going Astoria Investment Management https://www.astoriaim.com/ Astoria on X https://x.com/AstoriaAdvisors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. 2 nov

    Chip Stocks Look Cheap. AI Spending Is Surging. So Why Is Cameron Dawson Watching for Peak Earnings?

    Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute. Topics covered: - Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect? - The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy - Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance - Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings - Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability - How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index - Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies - Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months - Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon - Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendations Chapters: 00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed 05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course? 11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital 16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk 22:30 Can chip margins stay this high? 26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways 32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs 37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories 42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut 46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panel Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  8. 30 ott

    Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble?

    Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments. In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process. Topics covered: - How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples - Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations - CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction - What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk - Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations - His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy - Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE - Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield - How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding - Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered calls Infrastructure Capital Advisors: https://www.infracapfunds.com/ Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X: https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAP InfraCap's CPI-R analysis: https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-r Chapters: 00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios 06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples 13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing 18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand 26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations 31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield 38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data 43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target? 47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment 55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls 01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compounding Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Elenco completo (590)

Trailer

Presentatori e ospiti

Descrizione

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Informazioni

  • Creatore
    Excess Returns
  • Anni di attività
    2019 - 2026
  • Puntate
    590
  • Classificazione
    Contenuti adatti a tutti
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Sito web del podcast
    Excess Returns

Potrebbero piacerti anche…