Redefining Energy

Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid

Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation... Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen. Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/ X handle: @Redef_Energy

  1. 3 GG FA

    215. PPAs, FPAs, IPPs, Flex and Capture rates: new paradigms - Feb26

    Luca Pedretti, Co-Founder, Pexapark, returns to discuss how volatility, market design, and new contract structures are transforming power markets and renewable economics. What begins with PPA pricing quickly evolves into a broader conversation about where value is now created in the clean energy system. We start with the growing importance of IFRS 13 fair value accounting. In increasingly volatile markets, long-term forecasts are no longer sufficient. Market-implied PPA prices are moving faster than fundamentals and are becoming a key signal for future capture rates and risk, forcing investors to reassess how renewable assets are valued. The discussion then turns to Flexibility Purchase Agreements (FPAs), including tolls and floors for batteries. FPAs reflect a fundamental shift from generation toward flexibility and optimisation, as renewable-heavy systems face cannibalisation, negative prices, and widening price spreads. With clean sources now accounting for nearly half of EU power generation, these side effects are becoming structural. Solar capture rates have dropped sharply in markets such as Germany, negative prices now occur in thousands of hours across Europe, and curtailment and balancing costs are rising. Batteries have become the system’s primary response. We also explore how the buyer landscape is shifting. Hyperscalers and data centres are increasingly driving private PPAs, utilities are regaining relevance through trading and optimisation, and stand-alone renewable PPAs are showing signs of saturation. Despite this, capital deployment across clean energy continues to grow, signalling a reallocation of value rather than a slowdown. The conversation concludes with a look ahead. Many renewable assets financed under merchant assumptions are now misaligned with today’s pricing reality. Battery tolls and floors are scaling quickly, consolidation among IPPs is accelerating, and capture rates remain unstable. The open question remains whether any buyers are willing to pay a green premium for co-located and hybrid projects in a market where flexibility has become central to value creation. Link to Pexapark reports IPPs: https://go.pexapark.com/next-gen-ipp-playbook Renewables Market Outlook 2026 - The Big Repricing: How volatility and BESS reshape clean energy markets (PPAs and FPAs):  https://pexapark.com/pexapark-renewables-market-outlook-2026/

    28 min

  2. 2 FEB

    214. Grid Resilience: hot risks, cold solutions - Feb26

    Resilience is the buzzword of the moment—from Gerard’s personal resilience on display in Davos last week to the critical issue of grid resilience.   The great Doug Houseman draws a useful distinction between reliability and resilience. “Reliability is about how well you keep the lights on, while resilience is about how quickly you can restore power after an outage.”   Over the past year, blackouts caused by extreme weather, human error, and physical attacks have exposed an uncomfortable truth: electricity is no longer invisible background infrastructure. It is the backbone of modern society, and when it fails, everything else quickly follows.   To explore these challenges, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Ronny Fiuren, one of the Nordics’ sharpest thinkers on energy. Ronny is the Founder of Mylicia Energy, an executive board member, and a strategic business developer with deep expertise in power markets, energy flexibility, and grid-oriented solutions.   Together, they discuss why resilience has evolved from a technical afterthought into a strategic priority, and what recent events across Europe and North America are really telling us about the condition of our power grids.   The conversation examines how decentralisation, flexibility, and the use of advanced technologies and AI matter more than ever. It also highlights the need for a shift in mindset, not only among grid operators but also regulators.   They explore the value of interconnectors in strengthening power systems, while also unpacking their political dimensions and the strong public emotions that can emerge when electricity prices rise suddenly.   Beyond weather-related disruptions and cyber threats, the discussion turns to new risks such as deliberate sabotage and how energy systems can be designed to cope with them.   From Scandinavia to the rest of Europe, this is a timely conversation about how to build power systems capable of withstanding shocks in an increasingly electrified and digital world. ---- Read Ember Europe Electricity Review   https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/

    30 min

  3. 26 GEN

    213. Big Funds, Bigger Bets: Inside Infrastructure’s Power Shift - Jan26

    The infrastructure fund industry has become one of the most powerful engines behind the rise of renewables and datacenters. With Zak Bentley, Americas Editor, Infrastructure Investor (part of the PEI Group), Laurent and Gerard cut through the noise to deliver a clear-eyed view of where the infrastructure market really stands today.   2025 smashed fundraising records, with c.USD300bn raised, but it also laid bare an uncomfortable truth: this is a market in consolidation mode. Capital is concentrating fast, and the biggest platforms are pulling further ahead.   Global Infrastructure Partners set a new benchmark with its USD25.2bn Fund V, the largest infrastructure fund ever raised. Macquarie closed more than USD8bn for Infrastructure Partners VI, including co-investments, while Blackstone raised USD5.5bn for Strategic Partners Infrastructure IV, the largest infrastructure secondaries fund to date. Brookfield, KKR, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Ardian were also among the clear winners. Scale matters, and the leaders are taking an ever-larger share of the pie.   Fundraising may look healthier on the surface, but the process has become longer and harder. Time on the road has stretched to around 25 months, meaning a large portion of the capital “raised” in 2025 was secured across 2023 and 2024. This is not a detail; it is the clearest symptom of the barbell dynamic now dominating infrastructure fundraising, where capital flows either to the very largest platforms or to highly differentiated specialists.   Sector trends are also evolving. Airports and toll roads, written off after COVID, are back in favour. Social infrastructure is fading. ESG has been reset, not abandoned, and gas infrastructure is once again being embraced, often relabelled as energy transition to make it palatable. Datacenters sit at the centre of everything, hoovering up capital and pulling renewables and grid infrastructure along with them.   The discussion goes straight at the hard questions: are genuinely new sectors emerging, can today’s giants realistically keep getting bigger, and is there still room for ultra-specialised strategies?  The answer is increasingly clear. Bigger is not automatically better. Investors are becoming far more selective, and many are shifting capital toward focused, mid-market funds that offer expertise rather than sheer scale.   ----- Berlin Infrastructure Conference – 24 to 27/3 https://www.peievents.com/en/checkout/?peievcc-event-id=113021     Link to Nat Bullard – 200 pages yearly deck  https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations

    30 min

  4. 19 GEN

    212. Heat Pumps rise again - Jan26

    Heat pumps sit at the heart of Europe’s strategy to cut emissions and reduce dependence on imported gas. Under the EU’s REPowerEU plan, the bloc is targeting 60 million heat pumps by 2030. By the end of 2025, almost 30 million units were already installed — progress, but still only halfway to the goal. Gerard and Laurent are joined by Paul Kenny, Director General of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), to unpack why adoption has surged in countries such as Japan, Scandinavia and parts of the US, while many European markets continue to lag. After a strong year in 2022, European heat pump sales slowed in 2023 and 2024 amid high upfront costs, a shortage of qualified installers, weaker policy support and an unfavourable price relationship between gas and electricity. Paul explains why confidence is returning in 2025, with 1m heat pumps sold across 13 European countries in the first half of 2025, a 9% increase on 2024. We also look beyond residential heating to the rapid rise of industrial heat pumps, which could become a major decarbonisation tool for sectors requiring heat below 200°C, including food processing and pharmaceuticals. The conversation explores how heat pumps can add flexibility to the power system, in some cases reducing the need for battery storage, and why data centre heat management is emerging as a key new application. As the leading voice of Europe’s heat pump industry, EHPA is working to make heat pumps the preferred technology for sustainable heating and cooling — strengthening Europe’s competitiveness, resilience and energy security in the process. ----- At Redefining Energy, we are excited to be part of International Energy Week, where some of the biggest names in global energy come together for a packed agenda tackling the ideas, technologies, and policies shaping the future. ENGIE's CEO Catherine MacGregor will be speaking, as well as IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol and Shell's CEO Wael Sawan.   Join us there and get 20% off your ticket with the promo code REIEWEEK20. https://www.ieweek.co.uk/ -- Finally, Gerard and Laurent are invited by Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford university and an energy policy expert, for a live session at Oriel College in Oxford on 25/2/26.

    32 min

  5. 12 GEN

    211. The last Mile revolution: turning Distribution Networks into Flexibility Powerhouses - Jan26

    Laurent and Gerard sit down with Jo-Jo Hubbard, CEO of Electron, to explore why the centre of gravity in the energy transition is shifting decisively toward the distribution grid. Jo-Jo explains why the “last mile” is becoming the true engine of system flexibility, how demand at the edge must become a core resource, and why DSOs aren’t confused about flexibility at all — they simply respond to the incentives regulators design. Flexibility, she argues, isn’t replacing grid reinforcement but making it smarter, helping utilities target and sequence investments far more efficiently at a time when distribution upgrade costs are rising quickly. We discuss how to escape the sector’s obsession with endless pilots, and why real scale only arrives when year-round, rules-based products give suppliers and aggregators the confidence to automate and invest. The conversation then turns to the economics of location — from REMA to zonal pricing — and why congestion at the distribution level is where flexibility competes most effectively with copper. Jo-Jo also lays out what it takes to get millions of households engaged without overwhelming them, making the experience effortless, automated and consistent across retailers. She breaks down the hardest parts of the DER orchestration stack, noting that the real challenge isn’t cloud infrastructure but standardising how device capabilities and network constraints are described across a patchwork of utilities. Looking ahead to 2030, Jo-Jo argues that no single asset class “wins”: value depends on time, place and service, with EVs likely providing tens of gigawatts of potential flexibility but orchestration remaining the true hero. We cover the future of interoperability and open data — not via global standards, but through adapters and translation layers similar to those that shaped the internet — and examine the cybersecurity demands of cloud-based orchestration as it becomes critical infrastructure. Jo-Jo also gives a global view of progress, from Australia’s rapid adoption to the US’s accelerating regulatory push and Europe’s mix of strong TSO-level progress but uneven local action. She closes with reflections on whether the centralised grid is dying, who should ultimately control DERs, whether blockchain still has a role, and what a nightmare scenario looks like in a DER-dominated world. A fast, clear, and deeply insightful conversation on the rise of flexibility, the reinvention of the distribution grid, and the technologies and rules needed to orchestrate millions of devices.

    31 min

  6. 5 GEN

    210. Our Predictions for 2026

    Happy New Year energy nerds As tradition demands (and lawyers insist), the first episode of the year is the annual ritual where Gerard, Laurent, and Michael boldly predict the future of the energy transition… and then publicly roast themselves for last year’s bad calls. Before unleashing our 2026 Predictions, we do a mandatory rewind to the crystal-ball disasters of 2025: The 2025 prophecy graveyard:US oil production down in 2025 (MB — bold, brave… wrong)Oil at $40/bbl in 2025 (GR — oof)Geopolitics + broken supply chains + energy chaos = a better, more innovative world (LS — still hoping)A bloodbath for hydrogen in transportation (MB — disturbingly accurate)Record installs: Solar 700GW, EVs 20m, Batteries 200GWh (spot on)The death of all things labelled ESG, Climate, and Carbon (LS — prematurely optimistic)Scorecard: Gerard absolutely nailed Silver: from $30/oz to $60/oz in 18 months. BP technically survived 2025… but welcomed a new CEO, so partial credit at best. Michael wins overall, which he will remind us of repeatedly. After heroic levels of co-host sabotage, Laurent loses again, as is now canon. Our 2026 Predictions: 🔥 China battery systems at $40/kWh, full-system LFP (MB) 🔥 Half of all announced datacenters will never be built — welcome to the credit + grid crisis (LS) 🔥 Wind and solar installs DOWN in 2026 vs 2025 (GR — spicy) 🔥 20GW of solar in Africa in 2026 (MB) 🔥 The GhG Protocol revision fight gets ugly, personal, and possibly litigious (LS) 🔥 LNG glut creates stranded assets everywhere: flat demand, too much supply, tears on spreadsheets (GR) And yes, plenty more hot takes, bruised egos, and inconvenient truths to kick off the year the right way. 🎙️ Welcome to 2026. Let’s redefine energy.

    33 min

  7. 22/12/2025

    209. Deals, Scandals and other memorable moments of 2025

    For our final episode of the year, Laurent jumped onto the Wolfe Power podcast, where he and host Alex Wolfe took a no-nonsense tour through the big energy moments that shaped 2025.  Deals of the Year: The spectacular offshore wind meltdown in the US — Orsted’s year of pain — contrasted with the blazing global boom in battery deployment all over the world, up a staggering 50% year-on-year.The AI & Datacenter Surge: An extraordinary rise… but how much of it is grounded in facts, and how much is built on faith?Scandals & Disgraces: From the SMR pump-and-dump circus to Venture Global’s LNG “ghosts ships,” and of course the Tony Blair report debacle — 2025 delivered drama.Innovations That Actually Mattered: V2G is born thanks to Octopus and BYD and ever larger LFP form factors are reshaping storage — real progress amid the noise.Quotes of the Year: A remarkable harvest of sharp insights capturing the zeitgeist… and, inevitably, a mountain of nonsense worth calling out.To all our listeners: Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and thank you for riding through 2025 with us. We’ll be back in early January with our Predictions episode — always a very popular one.

    38 min

  8. 15/12/2025

    208. AI vs. Energy: the cost of speed - dec25

    Will artificial intelligence reshape the power grid, or will the inertia and complexity of today’s infrastructure slow progress—or even redefine how large language models, chips, and datacenters are designed and located?   To meet the exponential rise in energy demand, parts of the industry have taken shortcuts—rapidly adding behind-the-meter capacity through open-cycle gas turbines - OCGT (such as the Titan 350 from Caterpillar) with little regard for environmental regulations. The mantra seems to be speed at any cost.   Is the AI boom we are witnessing justified—or sustainable? From a technological standpoint, certainly yes: AI capability is roughly doubling every seven months. But from a financial perspective, it is harder to defend—given the sky-high valuations, credit fuelled growth and mounting losses at many of the sector’s biggest players.   The bigger question is what all this means for the energy system itself. How will AI be powered? What will it do to the cost of energy and the shape of our infrastructure? Will it accelerate—or hinder—the energy transition?   Hope is powerful—but it can also be blind. Between AI’s explosive growth and the traditional energy system’s entrenched realities, who will bear the cost?   These are the questions Laurent and Gerard pose to Andrew Perry, Director of the Energy Transition and Environment business unit at Faculty.ai, where he leads AI-driven innovation in the energy sector.   We have a heated debate, trying to honestly lay out the dilemmas in front of the industry.  More insights in this excellent research by the FT https://ig.ft.com/ai-power/ Today’s show is supported by the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt. The BMW Foundation unites leaders from diverse sectors to develop solutions that foster an innovative economy and a future-proof society. A key focus is "Energy Transition & Climate Change," where the Foundation drives "International collaboration to accelerate the energy transition." With rising energy demands from AI and data centers, new partnerships, effective collaboration, and the exchange of science-based solutions and strategies are essential. That’s why the BMW Foundation supports this podcast and brings these discussions to global stages by hosting the Energy Security Hub at the Munich Security Conference 2026, streaming live February 12–14. Learn more at www.bmw-foundation.org

    31 min
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Descrizione

Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation... Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen. Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/ X handle: @Redef_Energy

Informazioni

  • Creatore
    Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid
  • Anni di attività
    2018 - 2026
  • Puntate
    174
  • Classificazione
    Contenuti adatti a tutti
  • Copyright
    © Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid
  • Sito web del podcast
    Redefining Energy

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