The DeFi Report

Michael Nadeau
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Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.

  1. Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins?

    1 G FA

    Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins?

    Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding. Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation. ----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne   ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt ----TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective15:34 Iran's Strategic Position22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin31:34 Short-Term Market Signals36:08 Closing & Disclaimers ----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
  2. BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities

    1 APR

    BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities

    Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived. Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think. ----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne   ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective 4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch 6:31 War's Impact on Markets 11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis 14:03 Fed Rate Predictions 18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement 24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis 28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy 32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities 35:04 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    36 min
  3. Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown

    25 MAR

    Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown

    The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating? Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran 7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil 10:04 The US-China Connection 13:26 Lessons from 2022 16:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights 22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology 26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health 28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets 32:44 TDR Portfolio Update 33:56 Patience in Bear Markets 36:28 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
  4. Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?

    18 MAR

    Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure?

    Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally? Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict 4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications 8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges 12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis 19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases 27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends 35:33 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
  5. Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks

    11 MAR

    Bitcoin Network Health Check: Assessing Thesis & New Risks

    Mike and Ryan re-underwrite the Bitcoin thesis with a full network health check: hash rate, miner incentives, active addresses, ETF adoption, treasury firms, and BTC’s performance vs Nasdaq and gold. They also dig into the biggest risks ahead, including security budget pressure, miner concentration, and quantum computing, before explaining why they still view Bitcoin as a core portfolio asset this cycle. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:31 Institutional Insights on Bitcoin 4:24 Mining & Network Security 8:08 Fees & Block Rewards 11:20 Security Budget Risks 14:25 The Future of Mining 15:57 Address Trends & Activity 22:48 Institutional Adoption Surge 25:01 Treasury Firms & Bitcoin 28:03 Bitcoin vs. Other Assets 30:51 Quantum Computing Concerns 33:34 The Future of Bitcoin 36:43 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    43 min
  6. Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

    4 MAR

    Deploy now or wait for Deep Value? (March 2026 Cycle Update)

    Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s cycle awareness signals now that BTC has hit “fair value.” Using long-term holder supply in profit, MVRV, and the 200-week moving average, they compare today’s setup to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets and show how much returns changed when investors waited for “deep value.” Then they get practical on portfolio management: deploy now vs wait, how much cash to keep, and why Mike just made a second BTC buy while staying ready for a potential $50K to $55K scare. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:24 The Tension of Deployment 3:46 Market Positioning Updates 4:24 Cycle Awareness Indicators 7:17 The Impact of Fair vs. Deep Value 11:44 Market Value to Realized Value 15:49 Understanding the 200-Week Moving Average 18:48 Fair Value vs. Deep Value 20:21 Strategy for Navigating Uncertainty 24:26 Timing & Expectations for Deep Value 28:35 Managing Deployment Tensions 33:17 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    35 min
  7. Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update

    25 FEB

    Uncertainty Bubble? Tariffs, AI Tail Risks, & a BTC Market Structure Update

    Mike and Ryan unpack why “uncertainty” is starting to feel structural across markets: the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trump’s workaround playbook, and what it all means for capital flows and bonds. Then they dig into the viral Citrini AI scenario and why the real signal is not the report itself, but Wall Street’s reaction and the widening range of outcomes. Finally, they run a Bitcoin market structure check, from long term holder behavior and ETF flows to miner stress, and explain why they’re still heavy cash and what would need to happen to trigger the next fat pitch. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:49 Bitcoin Market Structure Insights 8:26 Supreme Court Tariff Decisions 12:20 Impact on the Bond Market 12:31 AI & Investor Psychology 20:30 Structural Uncertainty in the Market 26:14 Bitcoin Market Structure Update 35:44 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    36 min
  8. What is the bond market telling us?

    18 FEB

    What is the bond market telling us?

    Mike and Ryan break down the bond market signals that are starting to flash risk off: a standout 30 year Treasury auction, falling real yields, and a 2 year yield below the Fed funds rate. They map today’s narrowing stock market breadth and Mag7 dispersion to the early stages of the dot com setup, then steel man the bull case with AI capex, bigger tax refunds, and potential tariff stimulus. Finally, they explain why Bitcoin may be a leading liquidity indicator for TradFi and walk through the portfolio positioning, including the heavy cash stance and what would trigger the next fat pitch. ----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt ----TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro3:14 Analyzing the Bond Market Signals6:01 The Growth & Inflation Narrative9:38 Transitioning to Risk-Off Assets12:57 Equities: Are We in a Tech Bubble?15:13 Comparing Today to the Dot-Com Era19:10 Understanding Market Catalysts22:39 The Bull Case for AI Stocks26:52 Tax Refunds & Economic Impacts29:57 Consumer Behavior & Market Trends33:04 Portfolio Adjustments & Future Outlook35:24 Closing & Disclaimers ----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

    37 min
Elenco completo (15)

Descrizione

Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.

Informazioni

  • Creatore
    Michael Nadeau
  • Anni di attività
    2023 - 2026
  • Puntate
    15
  • Classificazione
    Contenuti adatti a tutti
  • Copyright
    © Michael Nadeau
  • Sito web del podcast
    The DeFi Report

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