The Chuck ToddCast

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The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

  1. 11 hr ago

    Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race

    Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!    Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.    Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections 04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire 05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races 06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party 08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range 09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH 11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans 13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters 14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map 14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result 15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map 16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election 18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect 19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map 20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue 21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction 23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos 25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery 26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election 29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem 31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort 33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska 34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing 36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA 37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective 40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy 42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills 42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars 43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts 44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk 45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall 48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare 50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election 56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide 1:00:00 #5 Florida 1:01:15 #4 Kansas 1:03:30 #3 Iowa 1:06:15 #2 Texas 1:09:15 #1 Ohio 1:12:00 Ask Chuck 1:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war? 1:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job? 1:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive? 1:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip? 1:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Chuck’s Commentary - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + A Damaging Story That Could Upend The Kansas Senate Race

  2. 11 hr ago

    Full Episode - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”

    Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play. Then, Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career. The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!  Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact  Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections 04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire 05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races 06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party 08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range 09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH 11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans 13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters 14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map 14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result 15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map 16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election 18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect 19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map 20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue 21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction 23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos 25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery 26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election 29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem 31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort 33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska 34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing 36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA 37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective 40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy 42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills 42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars 43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts 44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk 45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall 48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare 50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election 59:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:01:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century" 1:03:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker 1:05:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six 1:08:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first 1:10:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her 1:11:30 Why she never learned Italian 1:14:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera 1:17:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed 1:18:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist 1:19:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein 1:21:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe 1:25:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals 1:29:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it 1:36:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community 1:37:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear 1:43:30 The state of classical music in 2026 1:47:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live 1:52:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America 1:56:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th 1:56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide 2:00:00 #5 Florida 2:01:15 #4 Kansas 2:03:30 #3 Iowa 2:06:15 #2 Texas 2:09:15 #1 Ohio 2:12:00 Ask Chuck 2:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war? 2:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job? 2:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive? 2:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip? 2:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Full Episode - Decoding Missouri’s Election Map Mess + Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”

  3. 11 hr ago

    Interview Only w/ Anthony Tommasini - Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”

    Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career. The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact  Timeline: 00:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century" 04:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker 06:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six 09:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first 11:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her 12:30 Why she never learned Italian 15:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera 18:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed 19:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist 20:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein 22:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe 26:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals 30:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it 37:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community 38:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear 44:30 The state of classical music in 2026 48:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live 53:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America 57:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Interview Only w/ Anthony Tommasini - Remembering The “Voice Of A Century”

  4. 12 hr ago ·  Bonus

    You Might Also Like: Grown-Up Stuff: How to Adult

    Introducing DIY Home Security for Grown-Ups from Grown-Up Stuff: How to Adult. Follow the show: Grown-Up Stuff: How to Adult You probably have a pretty specific picture in your head when you hear the words “home break-in.” Maybe it involves someone kicking down the front door in the middle of the night. But according to our guest, that’s not usually how it works. And that might change the way you think about home security. In this episode of Grown-Up Stuff, Matt and Lea talk with Aaron Miller, Vice President at ADT and Head of ADT Blu, about the things that actually make your home vulnerable, from leaving obvious signs that no one’s home to relying on a camera notification without anyone there to respond. They also get into smart-home technology, DIY security systems, and the difference between simply knowing something is happening and actually having help when it does. And because life has a funny way of creating new reasons to think about security, like moving, having a baby, and going on vacation, Aaron shares some practical things you can do to protect your home without turning it into a fortress. Because being a grown-up means realizing that home security is probably one of those things you should think about before you need it. And, apparently, listening for someone breaking in at 2 a.m. isn't much of a strategy. This episode is sponsored by ADT. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. DISCLAIMER: Please note, this is an independent podcast episode not affiliated with, endorsed by, or produced in conjunction with the host podcast feed or any of its media entities. The views and opinions expressed in this episode are solely those of the creators and guests. For any concerns, please reach out to team@podroll.fm.

    You Might Also Like: Grown-Up Stuff: How to Adult

  5. 1 day ago

    The Paul Finebaum Interview: Alabama’s Past, Present & Uncertain Future

    Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football. Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Paul Finebaum Interview: Alabama’s Past, Present & Uncertain Future

  6. 1 day ago

    Super Tuesdays - Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami?

    Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day. From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now 03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s  04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice 05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season 07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no 08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part 11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem 13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message? 14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been 16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech 19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day 20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech? 23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas 26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take. 27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval 29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario 31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back 33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016 34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem 38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check 39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest 42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House 43:00 The Missouri ruling 46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop 47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29. 49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers 51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story 54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd 55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party? 58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking 1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame 1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave 1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference 1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act 1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court 1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill 1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team. 1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Super Tuesdays - Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami?

  7. 2 days ago

    Chuck’s Commentary - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Could John Fetterman Defect?

    With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk. He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.    Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day 04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult 06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big 07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami? 08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance 09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats 11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat 12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started 14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors 15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans 16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates 18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018 19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance 21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election 23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out? 25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise 27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent 29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem 31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering? 33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance 34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable 36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through 37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument 38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off 41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami 42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents? 46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out 49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman 50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027? 52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on? 52:45 College football week one recap  1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974 1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake 1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon 1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law? 1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support 1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew 1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over 1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received 1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it 1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon 1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost? 1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken 1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop 1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed 1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon 1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon 1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon 1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing 1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents 1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last 1:43:45 Ask Chuck 1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year? 1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests? 1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular? 1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees? 2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Chuck’s Commentary - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Could John Fetterman Defect?

  8. 2 days ago

    Full Episode - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Debt, AI, & An Economy That Isn't Working for Everyone

    With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk. He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football. Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond. The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.    Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact    Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction 03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day 04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult 06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big 07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami? 08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance 09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats 11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat 12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started 14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors 15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans 16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates 18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018 19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance 21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election 23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out? 25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise 27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent 29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem 31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering? 33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance 34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable 36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through 37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument 38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off 41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami 42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents? 46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out 49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman 50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027? 52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on? 52:45 College football week one recap  1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy 1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed 1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due 1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom? 1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond? 1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years 1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032 1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done 1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start 1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress? 1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming 1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump 1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress 1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands 1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul 1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age 1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers? 1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated 1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public 1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie 1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this? 2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling 2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50 2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do? 2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board 2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama 2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974 2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake 2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon 2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law? 2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support 2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew 2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over 2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it 2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon 2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost? 2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken 2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed 2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon 2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon 2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon 2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing 2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents 2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last 2:45:15 Ask Chuck 2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year? 2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests? 2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular? 2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees? 3:03:00 How can Dems break through to wor

    Full Episode - Blue Mirage, Blue Wave, Or Blue Tsunami? + Debt, AI, & An Economy That Isn't Working for Everyone
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The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

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