The Unknown Knowns

Sibylline Podcasts
Sibylline Podcasts
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Each episode of  The Unknown Knowns  explores what happens when intuition meets tradecraft — when the data ends and genuine insight begins. This series dives into how intelligence professionals, leaders, and decision-makers sharpen judgment, confront bias, and elevate their craft. From cognitive blind spots to the art of influence, it’s a space for people who think for a living — and want to think better, lead smarter, and communicate with impact.

  1. 1 day ago

    Beyond Vibes: Why Structure Is What Makes Analysis Trustworthy

    What makes analysis trustworthy? It is not simply the quality of the information or the confidence of the analyst. It is the quality of the thinking that connects evidence to judgement. In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the role of structured analytic techniques in making reasoning more transparent and easier to challenge. From questioning key assumptions and generating alternative explanations to identifying inconsistencies and testing competing hypotheses, structure can help analysts avoid becoming trapped by the first explanation that fits. But structure has its own risks. Techniques can become performative, with organisations focusing on completing the process rather than genuinely challenging their thinking. The episode considers why the right question is not simply which technique to use but what could go wrong with our thinking and which approach is best suited to exposing that weakness. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk

  2. 19 Aug

    It's Hard Not to Be Romantic About Baseball

    What can baseball teach us about intelligence analysis? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis turns to the world of baseball and the story of the Oakland Athletics to explore how data, strategy and human judgement interact when outcomes remain uncertain. Using Moneyball as a starting point, Angela examines the difference between improving the probability of success and actually controlling the outcome. Data can reveal patterns, challenge assumptions and help us make better decisions, but it cannot eliminate uncertainty or account for everything that happens when humans enter the equation. The same principle applies far beyond sport. Intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers can use information to improve their decisions, but they still have to operate in environments where unexpected events, human behaviour and chance can change the outcome. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk

  3. 12 Aug

    Cornfield Economics

    In this episode, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens when intelligence concepts leave the classroom and start showing up in everyday life. Angela explains why experts can recognise underlying patterns across very different situations, while others can struggle to apply a concept outside the context in which they learned it. The real challenge is not memorising concepts like confirmation bias, groupthink or bounded rationality. It is recognising them when they appear in unfamiliar places and developing better mental models using intelligence tradecraft as a broader way of navigating human judgement. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Follow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow Sibylline on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information: www.sibylline.co.uk #Intelligence #CriticalThinking #CognitiveBias #Judgment #DecisionMaking

  4. 6 Aug

    The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 2)

    Where is the line between influence and manipulation and how do you know when you've crossed it? In Part 2 of this series, Dr Angela Lewis moves from theory to practice, exploring how influence works in the real world and the ethical questions it raises. She examines why intent alone is not enough, how context shapes perception and why the most effective influence often leaves people feeling they made the decision themselves. Rather than offering simple rules, Angela provides a practical framework for recognising ethical influence, avoiding manipulation and becoming more aware of the techniques that shape decisions every day. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #Influence

  5. 30 Jul

    The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 1)

    What separates persuasion from manipulation? Is there a clear line, or do most forms of influence exist somewhere in between? In Part 1 of this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology and ethics of influence through an unforgettable story about a couple who both tried to end their relationship without ever having an honest conversation. From there, she unpacks the broad spectrum of influence, from education and advocacy to negotiation, collaboration and manipulation. Drawing on philosophy, psychology and intelligence tradecraft, Angela examines why influence is an essential part of leadership and intelligence work, why manipulation is so difficult to define and why transparency and agency may be the key differences between ethical influence and something more problematic. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #IntelligenceAnalysis #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #DecisionMaking #Influence

  6. 22 Jul

    Intelligence 101-ish (Part 3): Turning Chicken into Beef

    The Intelligence Cycle has shaped intelligence analysis for decades. But what if it only tells part of the story? In the final episode of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis explores why intelligence is better understood as a dynamic system than a linear process. Using an unforgettable cooking disaster as a metaphor, Angela explains why following the steps is not the same as understanding how the whole system works. This concluding episode challenges one of intelligence's most familiar models and offers a fresh way of thinking about complexity, decision-making and professional tradecraft. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #Intelligence101 #DecisionMaking #Leadership

  7. 15 Jul

    Intelligence 101-ish (Part 2): Pay Attention to the Signs

    How do intelligence professionals turn scattered information into something decision makers can actually use? In Part 2 of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis introduces one of the most influential frameworks in intelligence analysis: the Intelligence Cycle. From planning and collection to analysis, dissemination and feedback, Angela explains how intelligence moves from a simple question to an informed assessment. Along the way, she explores why intelligence is not about certainty or prediction but about reducing uncertainty, evaluating competing explanations and helping leaders make better decisions. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #Intelligence101 #IntelligenceAnalysis #CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking #Leadership #ProfessionalDevelopment

  8. 8 Jul

    Intelligence 101-ish (Part 1): Power Ballads Spell Trouble

    What is intelligence? Contrary to popular belief, it has very little to do with spies, secrets or James Bond. In the first episode of a new three-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores what intelligence actually is, why experts still debate its definition and why its real purpose is not collecting information but helping people make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Drawing on everything from Michael Bay's Armageddon (1998) to corporate security and everyday leadership, Angela explains the difference between data, information, research, and intelligence. She explores why intelligence is not about predicting the future with certainty but about creating decision advantage when the future is unclear. Whether you're an intelligence professional, a business leader or simply curious about how better decisions are made, this episode provides a practical introduction to one of the world's most misunderstood disciplines. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #CriticalThinking #DecisionMaking #Leadership #IntelligenceAnalysis

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Each episode of  The Unknown Knowns  explores what happens when intuition meets tradecraft — when the data ends and genuine insight begins. This series dives into how intelligence professionals, leaders, and decision-makers sharpen judgment, confront bias, and elevate their craft. From cognitive blind spots to the art of influence, it’s a space for people who think for a living — and want to think better, lead smarter, and communicate with impact.

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