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Join Crisis Group Interim President Richard Atwood and Board Member and Harvard Law School Professor Naz Modirzadeh as they dive deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.
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Hold Your Fire‪!‬ International Crisis Group

    • ニュース

Join Crisis Group Interim President Richard Atwood and Board Member and Harvard Law School Professor Naz Modirzadeh as they dive deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.
See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

    Episode 46: Iraq: Protests, Iran’s Role and an End to U.S. Combat Operations

    Episode 46: Iraq: Protests, Iran’s Role and an End to U.S. Combat Operations

    After a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that American forces would end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021. Biden’s announcement comes after a turbulent few years for Iraq. Mass protests saw young people camp out in city and town squares across much of the country despite harsh crackdowns by security forces and Iran-backed paramilitaries. Although demonstrations forced one government to step down and have largely dissipated this year, few of the protesters’ grievances have been addressed, and it is far from clear whether elections in October this year offer a chance for political renewal. In this week’s episode, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Iraq, to talk about Iraqi politics, Iran’s role, how much of a threat ISIS poses, and what an end to U.S. combat operations likely means for the country. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iraq page.
    This is the last episode of the first season of Hold Your Fire!. Please do get in touch with any feedback for the hosts or ideas for the next season at podcasts@crisisgroup.org.

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    • 37分
    Episode 45: The Taliban’s Advance in Afghanistan

    Episode 45: The Taliban’s Advance in Afghanistan

    The past few weeks have seen sweeping gains by Taliban insurgents across parts of Afghanistan as U.S. forces withdraw. This week, Richard Atwood is joined by Laurel Miller, Crisis Group’s Asia director, and Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, to discuss what is arguably the most dramatic shift in the Afghan war since the U.S. intervention 20 years ago ousted the then Taliban government. Andrew describes the Taliban’s steady expansion into many of Afghanistan’s districts and what it means for the government’s control in bigger cities and other provincial capitals. They discuss the Taliban’s political and military strategy as foreign forces pull out. Laurel looks at how the evolving battlefield dynamics are viewed in Washington and the broader debates around the future of U.S. policy in South Asia. They discuss what the Taliban’s advance means for peace talks between the insurgents and the Afghan government and other factions. They talk about how Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional powers view what is happening and what their policies might entail. They also look at what foreign powers would ideally do in the months ahead and what people should watch for a sense of the conflict’s trajectory. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page.

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    • 44分
    Episode 44: #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

    Episode 44: #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

    Six months after the military seized power in Myanmar, mass strikes and a brutal crackdown by the regime continue to paralyse the country – as the economy and public services, including the health system, have collapsed and new forms of armed resistance are emerging. Joining Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero this week to discuss what’s happening in the country is Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for Myanmar. Richard describes new forms of armed resistance emerging against the regime and the military’s heavy-handed retaliation that has displaced tens of thousands of people. He explains how these locally organised civilian militias have altered what was already a complex conflict landscape. They discuss the relationship among these new militias, underground resistance cells in cities like Yangon and Mandalay, the opposition National Unity Government and the ethnic armed groups that have long operated in parts of the country. They look at whether there is any hope of the regime changing course. They also examine what options exist for outside powers to ease humanitarian suffering and try to find a way out of the crisis. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Myanmar page.

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    • 35分
    Episode 43: Ten Years of South Sudanese Statehood

    Episode 43: Ten Years of South Sudanese Statehood

    This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar, ended much of the fighting. But millions still suffer from chronic hunger and unchecked militia violence. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at the past decade of statehood, the problems still blighting the world’s newest country and prospects for turning the page on the brutal civil war. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page.

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    • 39分
    Episode 42: A Dramatic Turn in Ethiopia’s Tigray War

    Episode 42: A Dramatic Turn in Ethiopia’s Tigray War

    Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead. 
    For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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    • 36分
    Episode 41 : Biden in Europe

    Episode 41 : Biden in Europe

    This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, to talk about U.S. President Joe Biden’s first overseas trip since taking office. Biden embarked on a tour of European capitals last week, with a first leg at the G7 summit in the UK, followed by meetings with EU and NATO officials in Brussels and finally a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Michael explains that while Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump’s legacy still looms large, his presence among European allies signals a return to more traditional U.S. diplomacy, even if their collective pledge on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable countries was underwhelming. They discuss prospects for the alliance of democracies Biden had talked up before the trip, the tone and conclusions of the Brussels meetings, and U.S.-Turkey relations after Biden’s first face-to-face encounter with Turkish President Recip Tayyep Erdogan. Michael also unpacks what Biden’s meeting with President Putin means for the future of U.S.-Russia relations. They then discuss the Biden administration’s deepening rivalry with China and the potential dangers in such an approach. 
    For more information, browse Crisis Group’s analysis on our U.S. page.

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    • 27分

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