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2021. 12. 15.
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11월 4일

After the Blue Wave, What Do Voters Want From the Economy?

Democrats have swept the midterms, with voters sending a clear message of frustration with inflation, health-care costs, and wage stagnation. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, unpack what the midterm outcome means for the economy going forward, and what the Fed will have to do to keep inflation under control. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, KPMG LLP Mentioned on the Episode: “Things That Go Bump in the Night,” KPMG “The Caregiving Leave Gap: More Access, but Unmet Needs Remain,” KPMG “AI's Hidden Costs,” KPMG Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
11월 4일

Is 2026 the New 1914?

This episode unpacks unsettling parallels between today’s increasingly multipolar world and geopolitical conditions on the eve of World War I, and reviews lessons from history about the cost of great-power war. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Odd Arne Westad, the Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University We Discuss: Why Odd Arne Westad believes that the geopolitical dynamics of 2026 more closely resemble those of 1912 and 1913 than those of 1939 or the Cold War era. How an era of collapsing globalization, rising nationalism, and newly powerful states echoes the conditions in the decades before World War I. How policymakers can learn from history without ransacking it for convenient analogies. Why Europe stumbled into war in 1914 despite deep economic integration. What Christopher Clark’s Sleepwalkers and Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion can still teach about miscalculation. Why nuclear weapons and economic interdependence may be weaker restraints on war than we assume. The similarities between Belgium in WWI and Taiwan today as geopolitical flashpoints, and what Westad learned on a recent trip to Beijing. The three steps Westad would take to keep today’s great powers from sleepwalking into catastrophe. Mentioned on the Episode: Norman Angell, The Great Illusion, Simpkin, Marshall, Hamilton, Kent & Co. Odd Arne Westad, The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History, Allen Lane Odd Arne Westad, “Trump, Xi, and the Specter of 1914,” Foreign Affairs For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/is-2026-the-new-1914 Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
10월 29일

Transactional U.S. Foreign Policy + Who Are America’s Friends Now?

The Trump administration is pursuing a transactional style of U.S. foreign policy, leaving friends and adversaries uncertain about what Washington wants. This week on The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and Jim Steinberg, dean of SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, unpack how Washington’s deal-making approach is playing out in Ukraine, Taiwan, AI governance, and the Iran war, and what could replace the U.S.-led global order that has persisted for the past eighty years. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: James Steinberg, Dean of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University Mentioned on the Episode: Stephen Sestanovich, “Trump’s ‘Diesel Deal’ With Russia Was Just the Start,” CFR.org Thomas Graham “Trump’s Putin Overtures Deserve Criticism. But Outrage Won’t End the Ukraine War.,” CFR.org Liana Fix and Daniel Fiott, “Europe’s Defense Dilemma,” CFR.org Michael Froman, “The Victory of Asymmetry in the Iran War,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
1일 전

The Pentagon’s $1.5 Trillion Ask + How to Build a Military for the Next War

The Trump administration is seeking a record $1.5 trillion defense budget, despite a backdrop of rising U.S. debt. With Democratic control of the House and Senate looming, tensions over spending in the lame-duck session are likely to intensify. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Doug Beck, former head of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit and a former Apple executive, unpack defense spending and what it would take to build a military that is truly ready for the next conflict. Host: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Douglas A. Beck, Senior Fellow, Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs; Director, Defense Innovation Unit at the Pentagon (2023—25); former Vice President, Apple (2015—19) Mentioned on the Episode: Douglas A. Beck, “America’s Missing Military Revolution,” Foreign Affairs Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
11월 6일

On China’s Challenge to the U.S. Dollar

In this episode, panelists examine China’s efforts to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and build alternatives to the dollar-centered international financial system. Experts also assess the progress and limits of these efforts—including the internationalization of the renminbi, the development of alternative payment systems, and China’s growing financial ties with emerging markets—and what they mean for the future of U.S. financial power. Host: Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations Guests: Martin Chorzempa, Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; CFR Term Member Robert Greene, Partner and Chief Operating Officer, Patomak Global Partners; Nonresident Scholar, Asia Program and Technology and International Affairs Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Jess Hoversen, Chief Economist, Column; Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council Want more comprehensive analysis of global news and events sent straight to your inbox? Subscribe to CFR’s Daily News Brief newsletter. To keep tabs on all CFR events, visit cfr.org/events. To watch this event, please visit CFR’s YouTube channel:China's Challenge to the U.S. Dolla
2일 전

A General and an Admiral Discuss the Pentagon Purge

This episode unpacks Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's purge of senior military leaders and what it means for civilian control, retention, and the armed forces. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Charles Bolden, retired Marine Corps major general and former NASA administrator Michael E. Smith, retired rear admiral and president and founder of National Security Leaders for America We Discuss: Whether Secretary Hegseth's removal of roughly two dozen senior officers marks a break with earlier approaches to turnover in the senior military ranks. How the military screens and grooms officers for flag rank over decades, and Bolden’s warning that “cutting off the head of the snake” does generational damage. What blocked or delayed promotions for more than eighty flag officers—more than half of them women or Black—signal about the politicization of a traditionally nonpartisan institution. Whether a secretary of defense can lawfully overrule or reshape a promotion board, and what civilian control of the military actually means. Whether there is merit to the claim that the United States has too many flag officers, and how Hegseth's proposed 20 percent cut differs from past drawdowns. What Bolden’s personal experience navigating discrimination in his path to the Naval Academy says about what an inclusive service should look like. Why retention and recruiting may suffer for years, and whether the damage to the officer corps can be undone. What advice two retired flag officers would give young people weighing military service, and where they still find reasons for confidence in the service. For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/a-general-and-an-admiral-discuss-the-pentagon-purge Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
10월 29일

Foreign Policy and the 2026 Midterms

This episode surveys the foreign policy stakes of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, from the Iran war and gas prices to tariffs, Ukraine, and Israel. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guests: Hannah Hartig, Senior Researcher, Pew Research Center Jessica Huseman, Editorial Director, Votebeat We Discuss: Why the national mood is “sour” heading into the midterms, and how the economy and cost of living dominate voters’ concerns. How to be a smarter consumer of polling data. Whether foreign interference in the vote count is a real risk, and why Huseman doesn’t worry about tabulation being hacked. How high gas and diesel prices are voters’ primary concern related to the Iran war, and whether they blame Trump for the spike. Why foreign policy has become a more important issue for Democratic voters since 2022 and 2024, though it still ranks behind other concerns. How tariffs are landing in highly partisan, region-specific ways, from the Midwest to the northern border states facing Canadian tariffs. Where Ukraine and a widening generational divide over Israel fit in, and whether either issue actually moves votes on Election Day. For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/foreign-policy-and-the-2026-midterms Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
10월 22일

The Iran War and the Midterms

This episode unpacks America’s strategic stalemate with Iran, Trump’s post-midterm options, and how Tehran and the Gulf see the war. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guests: Cole Bucy, former CIA analyst; former director for Iran at the National Security Council Nate Swanson, director of the Iran Strategy Project, Atlantic Council We Discuss: Why the United States has been strategically stuck in the Iran war for months with three bad options: escalate, negotiate, or hold the line. How the U.S. blockade and sanctions have squeezed Iran without cracking the regime. Why no Iranian elite or military defections have appeared and what that says about the regime’s staying power. Whether and how President Trump will “take the gloves off” after the midterms, with options including decapitation strikes and the “mother of all bombs.” How Tehran reads American politics, and whether the midterms are truly the pivot point each side assumes they are. Why China is the hole in the sanctions “siege,” and how Beijing is exposing the limits of Washington’s power. What Bucy and Swanson would advise the White House to do now, and why the Gulf may hold the key to regional security. Mentioned on the Episode: Cole Bucy and Nate Swanson, “Trump Unleashed,” Foreign Policy For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-iran-war-and-the-midterms Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
10월 30일

On the Midterm Elections and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

In this episode, panelists discuss how public opinion, election administration, and shifts in congressional power could shape America’s global posture in the months after the midterm elections. Host: Carla Anne Robbins, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Guests: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, Council on Foreign Relations Hannah Hartig, senior researcher, Pew Research Center Jessica Huseman, editorial director, Votebeat Opening Remarks: Irina A. Faskianos, vice president for National Program and Outreach, Council on Foreign Relations Want more comprehensive analysis of global news and events sent straight to your inbox? Subscribe to CFR’s Daily News Brief newsletter. To keep tabs on all CFR events, visit cfr.org/events. To watch this event, please visit CFR’s YouTube channel: Midterm Elections and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
10월 7일

Will There Be Meddling in the Midterms?

This episode unpacks the ongoing threat of influence and interference operations posed by Russia, China, and Iran as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Jessica Brandt, Senior Fellow for Technology and National Security, CFR, and former director of the Foreign Malign Influence Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence We Discuss: The difference between foreign “influence” operations and “interference” operations, and why the distinction matters. How Russia, China, and Iran run influence campaigns, from troll farms to the corruption of influential Americans. Why the intelligence community assesses that no foreign adversary could alter a U.S. vote count “at scale” without detection. What the Tenet Media case revealed about Russia’s ability to covertly fund American influencers. What President Donald Trump has claimed about Chinese interference in 2020 and what the evidence actually shows. How the federal government’s influence-defense apparatus has been scaled back or stood down after being built up through 2024. Why America’s decentralized, paper-backed election system is itself a source of security. Whether AI and “influence-for-hire” firms are about to turbocharge the threat ahead of the 2026 and 2028 elections. Mentioned on the Episode: “Executive Order 13848: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” The White House “Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company That Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests,” U.S. Department of Justice For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/will-there-be-meddling-in-the-midterms Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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