ForeCast

Forethought

ForeCast is a podcast from Forethought, where we hear from the authors about new research.

  1. 3일 전

    Liberalism Forever (with Peter Salib and Simon Goldstein)

    Peter Salib is an Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Houston Law Center and co-director of the Center for Law & AI Risk. Simon Goldstein is an associate professor at the University of Hong Kong, a senior editor at AI Frontiers, and a visiting senior scholar at Forethought. They have written together about AI safety, AI rights, and the governance of advanced AI. They joined Forethought’s Fin Moorhouse to discuss their new paper, Liberalism Forever. The conversation covers: Their “null hypothesis”: today’s liberal institutions — free markets and democratic governance — may already hold most of the answers for governing the far future, and longtermists have underrated their power Examining whether canonical social-science arguments for markets and democracy still hold under transformative AI, space colonization, and explosive growth, and claiming that most survive (and several get stronger) Why they favour reasoning “at the margin” over designing a detailed end-state, and why proposals like viatopia and the long reflection sound liberal but risk illiberalism when actually implemented Whether the standard case for markets — information aggregation, allocative efficiency, innovation — still bites once AGI can read off preferences directly Why inequality is, in their view, a comparatively boring problem with a known solution (tax-and-transfer), why AI-specific taxes like a compute tax are misguided, and how the growth-versus-distribution trade-off changes when growth rates get very high Dyson swarms and space resources: why they doubt there’s any real monopoly worry, since energy would be additive with free entry, and why property auctions might beat egalitarian allocation schemes The arguments for democracy that persist post-AGI — public-choice/selectorate incentives and democracy as a commitment device — versus the epistemic arguments, which they think weaken Why AGI could make autocracy more competitive (loyal AI bureaucrats and militaries removing the need for a human winning coalition), and what preserving democratic control requires in response Handoffs to superintelligent AI and successionism, and their preferred alternative of extending the franchise to AIs with their own values rather than deferring wholesale The history of new “technologies of democracy,” from the Federalist Papers to LLMs as impartial arbiters, and where each author thinks their own argument is weakest You can read a full transcript here. To see all Forethought's published research, visit forethought.org/research. To subscribe to our newsletter, visit forethought.org/subscribe.

  2. 4일 전

    Should Philanthropists Save Their Money for the Intelligence Explosion? (with Tom Davidson and Will MacAskill)

    Will MacAskill is a senior research fellow at Forethought and the author of What We Owe The Future. Tom Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought and the author of a series of reports on AI timelines, takeoff speeds, and AI-enabled coups. In this informal conversation about early-stage research in progress, they discuss: Why a philanthropist who takes transformative AI seriously should expect extraordinary investment returns (plausibly 10x to 100x) and how the market doesn’t seem to be pricing this in Why AGI shouldn’t be treated as a hard deadline to spend by, and the case that most philanthropic money should be spent during the intelligence explosion rather than before it How genuine AI substitutes for human labor would dissolve the hiring bottleneck that makes organizations so hard to scale today How relative prices shift when cognitive labour becomes abundant, why the patent system stops making sense in that world, and the window of “crazy philanthropic bargains” open to actors who adapt faster than large institutions The prospect of a world where only a small elite has access to superintelligent medical, financial, and strategic advice, and what it would take to avoid this Counter-considerations to the main case, e.g., crowding out by new money, the risk that overspending attracts grifters or distorts the field, and whether a richer world will mean worse philanthropic opportunities The risk of value drift over a long saving period, and mechanisms for binding your future self (such as irrevocably handing off control of philanthropic funds to independent, constitutionally-bound foundations) “Differential intellectual development”: using directable AI researchers to accelerate biodefense, infosecurity, AI interpretability, and neglected armchair fields like population ethics and social choice theory Why the case for waiting to give is much weaker for small donors Will’s worry that the whole line of reasoning might fail if it turns out scaling philanthropy well is bottlenecked by serial real-world learning that no amount of cognitive labor can compress You can read a full transcript here. To see all Forethought's published research, visit forethought.org/research. To subscribe to our newsletter, visit forethought.org/subscribe.

소개

ForeCast is a podcast from Forethought, where we hear from the authors about new research.

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