Podgecaste Brazil

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The show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. podgecaste.substack.com

  1. 8월 20일

    #32: Campaign Pain & Champagne

    As Brazil’s 2026 election campaign officially gets underway, we took some time on a tie-loosening Tuesday to discuss: * Brazil is a conservative country, but is there any polling evidence to suggest that is working in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favor? * The Partido Liberal’s struggle to form meaningful alliances in key battelgrounds. * “Barrels of beer for me; warm Coke Zero for thee.” * It’s never a good sign when you don’t get your VP pick. * Has Lula’s national sovereignty push flopped as a campaign strategy? * Lula sacrifices his Marco to save his Trump. * One too many impressions of Lula as Trump. * What’s going on with the lineup for the debates? * The most interesting gubernatorial races to watch. * The collapse of free-market advocacy in Brazilian politics. * An Andy Burnham sidebar. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #32: Campaign Pain & Champagne

  2. 7월 30일

    #31: Trump's Tariffs Strike Back

    As Brazil faces another round of tariffs from the Trump administration, we discuss: * Reflections on Brazil’s national mood during the World Cup. * To the extent one exists, what is the game plan here? * How Trump changed the definition of the word ‘tariff’ (which is the most beautiful word in the dictionary, by the way). * Is the PIX payment system really at risk? * Mandating American Express payments would be a more effective approach. * Flávio’s campaign is collapsing, but would anyone else be doing any better? * Full AI slop campaign mode is upon us. * How no policy and no existentialism favors Lula. * The Tight Washout Theory. * Daniel Ortega cancels “elections” in Nicaragua. * What’s Nicolás Maduro up to these days? * Gustavo Petro wants Colombia’s election OVERTURNED. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #31: Trump's Tariffs Strike Back

  3. 7월 3일

    #30: Brazil’s Lost War on Drugs (w/ Felipe Krause)

    Discussed: * Felipe’s early life as the son of a Brazilian diplomat. * Rediscovering his home country as an adult. * Passing Brazil’s toughest public-service entrance exam. * Journey to academia. * The evolution of Oxford University’s Latin American Studies Department. * Felipe’s assessment of why Brazilian drug policy has failed on its own terms. * Why Brazilian drug policy hardened over years of ‘progressive’ PT government. * How seriously is the terrorist designation of Brazil’s largest criminal organizations being taken by the country’s authorities? * The Latin American Left’s ‘own goal’ in its approach to combating organized crime. * Will the Donroe Doctrine lead to direct intervention in Brazil? * Brazil’s potential paths to drug legalization. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #30: Brazil’s Lost War on Drugs (w/ Felipe Krause)

  4. 6월 17일

    #29: Demystifying Lula (w/ Richard Lapper)

    Discussed: * From Sheffield to covering the Sandinistas. * The failures of the far left against Latin America’s military dictatorships. * “Running to stand still.” * Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the Plano Real. * Socialist idealism meets capitalist pragmatism. * Brazil’s victims and beneficiaries of circumstance. * A look into Lula’s psychology. * No time for the ideological left. * What BRICS means for Brazil. * Lula’s relationship with Trump. * The collapse of Brazil’s unionized working class. * PT’s shift to a lobby for pensioners and the public sector. * No time for the Lava Jato rabbit hole. * Was Lula the only candidate who could have beaten Bolsonaro in 2022? * Lula’s chances of winning amidst high(ish) rejection rates. * The current state of Brazil’s economy. * And much more! Richard’s latest book, ‘‘Lula! The Man, The Myth and a Dream of Latin America’’ is available here. We also recommend checking out his other title, ‘Beef, Bible and Bullets: Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro’, which you can find here. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #29: Demystifying Lula (w/ Richard Lapper)

  5. 6월 3일

    #28: Terror and Treason in The Tropics

    Discussed: * A (very belated) recap on the Trump and Lula showdown. * Flávio Bolsonaro goes to Washington. * “It’s terror, but not that kind of terror.” * Lula’s case for national sovereignty. * Getting in the mind of the Uber driver voter. * Will Flávio achieve his father’s dream of nationalizing the crime debate? * Ciro Gomes: Brazilian Batman. * A soundbite, a screenplay, and a scandal. * A reading of Dark Horse: coming soon (?) * Flávio’s polling fallout isn’t nearly as bad as it seems. * “We have decided not grant you a third way. Please try again in four years.” * Renan Santos vs “I dunno”. Who will win? * The dichotomy of Lula’s third (and maybe fourth) term. * The trepidations of treason. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #28: Terror and Treason in The Tropics

  6. 4월 29일

    #27: How Bolsonaro Misread Brazil in 2022

    Discussed: * Big Brother Brasil has a winner. * Will Flávio’s bad tweets get him disqualified from the race? * Glenn Greenwald’s takes on the Supreme Court. * Romeu Zema becomes the muppets latest showrunner. * The impossible politics of pardons Jan 8 and attempted coup plot. * The Path to the Planalto #01 - read it now. * How Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election. * Lula’s 45% trap becomes a safe haven. * The curse of viralatismo for right-wing politicians in Brazil. * “Lula in 2022 was closer to Trump in 2016 than Bolsonaro in 2018.” * The misread of imposing American polarization onto Brazil. * Does Flávio have a Trump card in 2026? * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #27: How Bolsonaro Misread Brazil in 2022

  7. 4월 9일

    #26: Why Nobody Can Truly Win Brazil

    Discussed: * It’s Brazilian election boy summer! * Lula’s looksmaxxing must be stopped. * “Why are you running, bro?” * Geraldo Alckmin returns for Lula’s Veep Season 4. * Move over saudades. Sapatênis is the new untranslatable word. * Disinformation is just bad politics for the right. * A long LARP as Flávio Bolsonaro on the debate stage. * “Please sir, I just need one more go around the merry-go-round.” * Hunger is going, going, gone, back, and gone again. * Lula-EU vs. Flávio-Trump. Which way Centrist Dad voter? * Brazil’s Grumbleocracy gives little chance to a Bukele, or even a Milei. * Were the 2016 protests a CIA color revolution? * “To interfere, or not to interfere. That is the question.” * Brazilian politicians as the cast of Arrested Development. * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

    #26: Why Nobody Can Truly Win Brazil

  8. 3월 25일

    #16: Predictions - The Havana Hazard

    Discussed: * Note to self: never get distracted by Iran. * A quick phone-in from an expert on the history and geography — which is an island, in case you didn’t know. * Latin American despots were looksmaxxing before it was cool. * “If they do anything to Cuba, I’m gonna be really, really mad.” * Is Flávio Bolsonaro a low-energy candidate? * What we’re seeing in the polls is a consolidation. Nothing more; nothing less. * Lula is polling better than some of us would like to think. * Deep State vs. Deep State Lite. * How The Big Short has poisoned an entire generation of analysts. * Some thoughts on VP Geraldo Alckmin. * Will Mario win Lula the youth vote? * And much more! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

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The show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. podgecaste.substack.com

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    Podgecaste
  • 방송 연도
    2025년 - 2026년
  • 에피소드
    52
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    Podgecaste Brazil