Talking Trade

WisBusiness.com

Talking Trade is a podcast produced by WisBusiness.com and hosted by Ken Wasylik, managing director, E.M Wasylik Associates, and Sandi Siegel, president and managing director, M.E. Dey & Co. The show features interviews with experts on trade policy, supply chains, economic trends and much more. 

  1. 6월 16일

    Talking Trade Ep. 116 - Alex Wolf, JP Morgan Private Bank

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Alex Wolf of JP Morgan Private Bank says global supply chains are adapting to persistent shocks.  Wolf, the bank’s global head of macro and fixed income strategies, discusses the ripple effects of shifting trade policies and armed conflicts. He notes the new normal for international trade is characterized by frequent “shocks,” pointing to U.S. tariff changes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Iran.  “We’ve seen more stress on global supply chains than we have in a very long time,” Wolf said. “So on the negative side, you almost have a persistent state of uncertainty and … you could even say trade policy almost looks like, the goal of it is to be uncertain and opaque and keep companies guessing.”  But at the same time, “global trade has held up” better than initially expected through this period of uncertainty, according to Wolf.  “If you go back to April last year, and you had a lot of projections and forecasts showing a cratering in global trade, certainly that hasn’t come true,” he said. “We’re seeing still pretty robust demand, so companies have been able to adapt, supply chains have been able to adapt.”  Wolf also shares insights on tariff-related cost increases being absorbed by the economy and how that’s changed over time, as well as how price increases differ between goods and service sectors.  The discussion also explores the shifting U.S. trade relationship with China, as the United States’ trade deficit with the rival nation has declined due to lower imports from China. Still, China’s trade surplus has “continued to balloon,” reaching $1.2 trillion for 2025.  “They’re sending less to the U.S., because the U.S. is buying less, but they’re flooding the rest of the world with goods,” he said. “So they’re finding other markets … that is increasing pressure on the rest of the world that’s seeing a flood of cheap Chinese goods.”  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel and sponsored by the Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, Carroll University and Michael Best Strategies.

  2. 4월 28일

    Talking Trade Ep. 115 - Jason Turner, Great Lakes Advisors

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Great Lakes Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jason Turner says trade disruptions in the Middle East are creating opportunities for exporters elsewhere.  Turner notes the conflict with Iran has largely impacted commodities being transported through the Strait of Hormuz out of the region, but other markets are adapting to meet global demand.  “Those minerals, those goods that are coming from the gulf … they are produced other places,” he said. “And you’ve got countries in Europe, countries in the far east that had been large trading partners of some of those Middle Eastern nations … looking to other places, looking to the United States, looking to Australia, looking to other areas in South America, for example.”  And while commodities coming out through the strait are facing blockades, finished goods that would normally enter the region through the key shipping lane are also being disrupted, Turner explained.  The discussion explores how exporters can navigate the current landscape, including strategies such as contingency planning and running potential scenarios.  “I definitely think flexibility is key … What happens if tariffs were to go up, and have a 25% tariff slapped on anything going between us here?” he said. “Where can I pivot, where can I obtain inputs from, where can I export to?”  He also said it’s “a great time to be thinking about developing new markets” as an exporter, arguing those that are more entrenched will take a larger hit from the conflict.  “There’s those that are also going to take advantage, and become the new supplier for something. Those doors are starting to open up,” Turner said. “The longer the current conflict persists, and the higher the degree of uncertainty around tariffs, the more those other nations are going to look for new markets and new providers.”  Meanwhile, Turner weighs in on stock market trends amid the uncertain environment, corporate income growth, the path ahead for tariff refunds and more.  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. CEO Sandi Siegel.  The show is sponsored by the Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, Michael Best Strategies and Carroll University.

  3. 4월 9일

    Talking Trade Ep. 114 - UW-Madison Prof. John Pevehouse

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” UW-Madison Prof. John Pevehouse says the ongoing conflict in Iran is affecting more than oil markets, as the key trade route in the region is being used as a bargaining chip.  The interview was recorded Wednesday, one day after a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war was announced.  “We’ve seen wild market swings, you know, as the conflict has gone on, and clearly there’s been a tremendous depression of trade effect,” Pevehouse said.  While the earlier closure of the Strait of Hormuz had led to skyrocketing fuel costs in the United States and elsewhere, Pevehouse notes the critical shipping route is used to transport the element helium, used for processing computer chips and components.  “Helium is essential, and so that can disrupt the tech sector pretty easily,” he said. “You also have other kinds of refined petroleum products, but also you have a lot of petrochemical feedstock that comes out of the region, in other words, fertilizers and intermediates.”  As much as a third of global fertilizer industries depend on goods moving through the strait, Pevehouse said, noting ripple effects from the conflict through agri-business supply chains.  While the United States has shifted toward energy independence in the past two decades, becoming a net energy exporter, Pevehouse pointed to a “boomerang effect” as Asian countries affected by the conflict drive up prices globally, including domestically.  Meanwhile, as negotiations play out between the U.S. and others in the region, the “omnipresent” threat of Iran closing the strait once again will remain, he said.  “That said, Iran depends on the strait too,” Pevehouse said. “People talk about, ‘Well, they could sink ships and close the strait.’ But that cuts them off too, and that gives them no source of capital.”  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

  4. 3월 4일

    Talking Trade Ep. 113 - Sarah Helton, Michael Best Strategies

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Michael Best Strategies Partner Sarah Helton says uncertainty persists after the recent U.S. Supreme Court tariffs decision.  “It’s nice that we have clarity around where the Supreme Court lands on the president not having authority under IEEPA to impose tariffs, but we are in a kind of part two of a world of uncertainty,” Helton said.  After the nation’s highest court ruled the president can’t use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, undercutting a key element of the Trump administration’s trade policy, questions remain about the potential for refunds for affected businesses.  “I think all eyes are on what the Court of International Trade is going to do next related to refunds and relief for importers for IEEPA tariffs paid,” Helton said, adding “for the thousands of lawsuits that have been filed to date, those essentially have been put on stay right now.”  She said that stay is expected to be lifted soon, but added it’s “not clear” what a framework for getting refunds would look like.  “The soonest that we can get direction from the court, the more clarity there will be on the next steps forward and how soon relief will be provided,” she said.  Helton also weighs in on alternative tariff routes the administration has been using as well as how they could be leveraged going forward.  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

  5. 2월 2일

    Talking Trade Ep. 112 - Susan Meyer, Norwegian honorary consul for Illinois and Wisconsin

    The latest episode of “Talking Trade” is with Susan Meyer, Norwegian honorary consul for Illinois and Wisconsin.  Meyer, who’s also a partner at the law firm UB Greensfelder in Chicago, discusses the ties between Nordic countries and the Midwest and calls for more collaboration between the regions.  Along with the existing Norwegian community in Wisconsin, she points to Swedish and Danish heritage in nearby Illinois.  “We already know each other, so now is the time to leverage those cultural connections to drive strategic growth,” she said. “Wisconsin, for instance, has a lot of manufacturing, skilled labor, logistics, of course as well as being centrally located. While Nordic technology, automation and capital can compliment and support local manufacturing facilities.”  Meyer says Norway and other nearby countries are very interested in exporting physical products to the United States, as well as entertainment and other cultural assets.  The discussion also explores intellectual property considerations for international trade, hurdles around using trademarks elsewhere that were established in a given country, and differences in patent regulations.  “So where industrial designs are protected in the EU, we don’t recognize those in the United States,” she said. “We do have design patents, but they’re not enforced in the same way.”  Meyer highlights her work with the organization Women Entrepreneurs Grow Global, supporting women-owned businesses. She serves as an intellectual property advisor to the group and holds a position on its board.  “The idea is that you bring together industry leaders, business owners, supporting experts … This creates a valuable ecosystem, support, inspiration and expertise, in WEG’s case to help wojmen grow their businesses,” she said. “But the advice I would give to all business owners … is no matter what stage you’re in, activate your network. Ask for help.”  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

  6. 1월 9일

    Talking Trade Ep. 111 - John Min, Monex USA

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Monex USA Chief Economist John Min says tariffs are driving up prices on imported goods, contributing to inflation.  “If it wasn’t for tariffs, I think we may be close to 2%, which is our goal, but we’re stuck at 3%, so there’s an effect,” he said.  He noted the U.S. Department of the Treasury is currently collecting $30 billion per month, adding U.S. companies are the ones footing the bill.  “Whether they’re passing on the tariffs to the consumers … about 50% of the cost is being passed on, and companies are absorbing with their margin, we just don’t know how long they could last doing that,” he said.  If that’s the case, he expects to see “the full effect” of tariffs hit prices within the next six or seven months.  “I see an almost divided economy, to a certain extent … the bigger retailers are able to absorb it better, because they have the scale, they can negotiate, they can find alternative suppliers,” he said. “It’s the smaller businesses, they’re really getting hurt because cash flow is very thin anyway.”  While he’s optimistic about future U.S. economic growth, Min raised concerns about a “disconnect” between that growth and labor market trends.  “As I describe the microeconomic conditions, I’m very concerned,” he said. “Because we are growing, but we’re not creating jobs. And in fact, I’ve never seen this type of disconnect between growth rate and the employment numbers.”  The discussion also explores potential impacts of AI on productivity and related investment trends, supply chain changes and more on the international trade landscape for 2026.  “Overall, international trade we expect to be, I don’t want to say rosy, but still positive, still growing,” Min said.  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

  7. 2025. 12. 15.

    Talking Trade Ep. 110 - John Gatto, Transatlantic Strategy Group

    In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” John Gatto of Transatlantic Strategy Group says “decades-overdue” German defense spending creates new opportunities for U.S. businesses.  Gatto is the founder and managing director of the Milwaukee-based international business and government relations firm, which helps clients navigate the regulatory environments of the United States and Europe.  He discusses how recent developments in U.S. foreign policy have led to changes in Germany, which is putting more funding into defense after President Donald Trump pressured it and other NATO members to contribute more to the military alliance.  “We are putting money behind defense which has historically never been there,” said Gatto, who grew up in Germany. “There was a defense budget, but it was very, very, very small. All of a sudden, within one fell swoop, you have a trillion euros in additional defense spending in Germany alone.”  That’s in addition to about $870 billion in proposed European Union defense spending, he noted. While Germany, France and other NATO countries are ramping up their ability to defend themselves militarily, their economies alone won’t be able to fulfill this rising demand, according to Gatto.  “The funds are there, but the capabilities are not really there,” he said. “And that’s where I identified tremendous opportunity for U.S.-based companies.”  That includes Wisconsin manufacturers such as Oshkosh Defense, smaller suppliers of technical components in the state, as well as bigger companies elsewhere in the country including Lockheed Martin and Boeing.  Gatto says the “political volatility” in Europe and elsewhere is shaping investment and business decisions around the world. He pointed to a shift from “just in time” manufacturing to a “just in case” approach in the post-COVID era, as companies are stocking more supplies and products than they did before the pandemic.  “Many people are now focusing on supply chain resilience, diversifying their supply chain,” he said, adding “the defense industry has historically been a very well-established and settled marketplace, but there’s so much more opportunity for new players now.”  Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.

  8. 2025. 10. 06.

    Talking Trade Ep. 109 - Sarah Helton, Michael Best Strategies

    The Talking Trade hosts, Sandi Siegel and Ken Wasylik, talk with Sarah Helton, Government Procurement and Trade group leader for Michael Best Strategies about the Trump administration's evolving tariff policies. Sponsored by the Wisconsin Center on Manufacturing and Productivity, the Dairy Farmers of Wisconsin, Carroll University, and Michael Best Strategies.

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Talking Trade is a podcast produced by WisBusiness.com and hosted by Ken Wasylik, managing director, E.M Wasylik Associates, and Sandi Siegel, president and managing director, M.E. Dey & Co. The show features interviews with experts on trade policy, supply chains, economic trends and much more. 

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