Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
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Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com

  1. a16z’s Alex Immerman on How AI Is Redefining the Modern CFO | Mostly Classics

    3 DAYS AGO

    a16z’s Alex Immerman on How AI Is Redefining the Modern CFO | Mostly Classics

    [Original air date: June 19, 2025] In this episode, Alex Immerman, partner at Andreessen Horowitz, joins CJ to discuss the CFO role and how it’s changing in the era of AI. He explains what the components of a company’s AI agenda the CFO should own, how and where it should be leveraged in an organization, and why, if you’re preparing to go public, AI needs to be mentioned in your S-1. He breaks down how the financial landscape differs greatly between AI-native SaaS companies and traditional B2B SaaS companies in terms of retention curves and gross margins, and how this relates to the ever-important LTV to CAC metric. As someone who has worked with prominent CFOs and interviewed many for a16z’s portfolio companies, Alex also describes the qualities of a great CFO, and shares his favorite interview question, before discussing CFOs, CEO, and board dynamics. — LINKS: Alex Immerman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/immerman Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: a16z’s Alex Immerman on the Evolving Role of the CFO in the Age of AI https://youtu.be/JIvHp-mlnzs So You’re Looking for a “Strategic” CFO? Bloomerang’s Steve Isom on What That Really Means https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgHOtvG1Ces — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:01:46 AI Margins Improve Dramatically 00:02:29 What Separates Great CFOs 00:03:29 Founder Mindset Drives Performance 00:05:31 Founder Intensity and Margin Expansion 00:06:57 Backing Unproven Bets Thoughtfully 00:08:29 Interviewing CFOs for Backbone 00:09:55 When CFOs Push Back on Strategy 00:11:25 CFO Trust With Boards and Investors 00:11:50 How CFOs Engage Investors When Hiring 00:14:44 Building Strong CFO Investor Relationships 00:16:18 Sharing Bad News Early 00:17:21 CEO Vision Versus CFO Validation 00:20:57 How AI Is Changing the CFO Role 00:23:56 Incumbents Versus AI-Native Finance Tools 00:26:24 CFOs Driving Internal AI Adoption 00:28:07 AI Impact on Customer Support Efficiency 00:29:26 Internal Leverage From AI Automation 00:31:29 Why Investors Care About LTV to CAC 00:34:00 LTV to CAC Across Business Models 00:36:26 Retention Curves Matter More Than Growth 00:38:16 Evaluating AI Gross Margins Long Term 00:40:04 Recipe for AI Margin Expansion 00:43:01 What Makes a Public-Ready CFO 00:44:47 Beating Guidance Drives IPO Performance 00:46:56 Growth Versus Profitability Has Rebalanced #RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOLeadership #FintechInvesting #AISaaS #VentureCapital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    49 min
  2. The Strategic Power of Investor Relations | Mostly Classics

    6 DAYS AGO

    The Strategic Power of Investor Relations | Mostly Classics

    [Original air date: May 8, 2025] When it comes to investor relations, an organization’s communication strategy should be a key instrument to support its business strategy. While this may seem obvious, so often we get this wrong. In this episode, CJ hosts a masterclass on investor relations with Samuel Levenson of the Arbor Advisory Group and Jon Neitzell of Andruil Partners, focusing on the strategic role of IR in driving company valuation. They cover what “audience opportunity” really means and what to do when you’ve attracted the wrong investors. They talk about metrics, KPIs, and OKRs, plus why management credibility and conveying conviction can make or break your IR strategy. They also discuss what has changed in the IR profession over time and what hasn’t (but probably should) before suggesting changes you can make to drive impact immediately. — LINKS: Samuel Levenson on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/samlevenson/ Jon Neitzell on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-neitzell/ Arbor Advisory Group: www.arboradvisorygroup.com/ Anduril Partners: https://www.andurilpartners.ai/ CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: Investor Relations as a Strategic Weapon: A Masterclass https://youtu.be/ac9xmURhAqE — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:02:22 Welcome to Sam and Jon 00:03:12 Linking Business Strategy and Communication 00:05:01 Proactive vs. Reactive Investor Relations 00:06:39 Tailoring the Message by Investor Type 00:08:05 Audience Opportunity and Ideal Shareholders 00:11:05 When the Investor Base No Longer Fits 00:12:21 Shifting Investors as Industries Change 00:13:16 Optionality Comes From Patient Shareholders 00:14:40 Conveying Conviction Through Credibility 00:17:03 Why Investor Days Build Trust 00:18:02 Metrics Versus Storytelling in IR 00:19:10 Choosing Metrics the Market Actually Rewards 00:22:30 Valuation Disconnects and Investor Confusion 00:23:17 Finding Metrics That Truly Drive Value 00:25:33 Avoiding Bad Capital Allocation Decisions 00:26:20 Disclose Versus Guide: Confidence Intervals 00:27:35 Knowing What You Don’t Know 00:29:33 Science Versus Art in Storytelling 00:33:11 When Algorithms Become Your Audience 00:33:56 Passive Investing Now Dominates Markets 00:35:16 Linking OKRs to Value-Driving KPIs 00:36:42 Closing the Strategy-Metrics Feedback Loop 00:38:07 When Investors Sense Operational Confidence 00:39:47 Why IR Becomes Strategy Consulting 00:41:28 Why IR Teams Stay Undersized 00:43:23 Sam’s Accidental Entry Into Investor Relations 00:44:34 Mentorship Over Formal IR Training 00:46:18 How Markets Outpaced IR Practices 00:47:01 Investor Days Go Virtual 00:49:34 Designing a High-Quality Earnings Call 00:50:41 Investor Days as High-ROI Investments 00:51:45 IR Websites as Investor Onramps 00:53:42 World-Class Investor Day Examples 00:54:20 Using AI to Prepare Investor Communications 00:56:19 Building a Proactive IR 2.0 Strategy 00:58:33 Why IR Requires Full Executive Buy-In 01:00:51 Data Transfers Conviction to Investors 01:03:31 Closing Reflections on Trust and Valuation #RunTheNumbersPodcast #InvestorRelations #CapitalMarkets #ValuationStrategy #CFOInsights This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    1h 4m
  3. Inside the Economics of Independent Creators | Mostly Growth

    27/12/2025

    Inside the Economics of Independent Creators | Mostly Growth

    Mostly Growth on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MostlyGrowth Mostly Growth on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mostly-growth/id1842238102 Mostly Growth on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3KDtaLaXx1obFp5PUhZ6V3 In this year-end episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman reflect on what it actually takes to build a modern media business around newsletters and podcasts. They unpack CJ’s first year going full-time, comparing creative intuition versus metric-driven operating styles, and discuss what content truly drives growth. The conversation also covers distribution dynamics, the emotional reality of unsubscribes and burnout, and closes with a candid look at monetization, team building, and the tradeoffs between simplicity and scale. — SPONSORS: Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com — LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/ Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/ Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/ Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/ https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/deep-research-for-gtm https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/2025-state-of-b2b-gtm-report https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stack https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/the-great-ai-arr-illusion https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-2025-tech-stack-report https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/download-the-annual-planning-bible https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-sell-annual-plans https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/get-recommended-by-chatgpt https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/gtm-vibecoding-ideas https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-use-ai-agents-for-marketing — RELATED EPISODES: We get roasted for swag and drop some GTM gold https://youtu.be/uubf_8al95w Do vanity plates bring serious business? https://youtu.be/Cm1rubFb-kg Pricing in the Real World: Babies, Bots, and Billing https://youtu.be/T1cjFSZR0k0 — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:01:52 Sponsors — Pulley | Metronome 00:04:12 Action Figure Swag and Year-in-Review Setup 00:05:47 Going Full-Time and the First-Year Reality Check 00:07:24 Writing Schedules, Creative Work, and Time Optimization 00:09:16 Writing Speed, Craft, and the Myth That Time Equals Quality 00:10:51 Perfectionism vs. Throughput in Newsletter Writing 00:13:03 Creator Burnout, Motivation, and Engagement Anxiety 00:14:08 Playing the Long Game vs. Obsessing Over Metrics 00:15:42 Best Work of the Year and High-Leverage Content Bets 00:17:55 Big Research Reports as Career-Defining Projects 00:19:19 When Memes Outperform Deep Work 00:19:52 LinkedIn Algorithms vs. Content Quality 00:20:51 Writing for the Feed vs. Writing to Think 00:22:03 Optimizing LinkedIn Profiles for Credibility 00:23:47 Subscriber Growth, Audience Quality, and Churn Reality 00:27:20 Reports and Research as Growth Engines 00:28:37 Tactical “How-To” Content That Actually Converts 00:30:21 Tactical Value Beats Sounding Smart 00:30:40 Building a Team and Scaling Beyond a Solopreneur 00:32:05 Simplicity vs. Scale in Early Business Decisions 00:35:37 Avoiding Boredom and Shiny Object Syndrome 00:37:12 Balancing Writing, Consulting, and Energy 00:37:54 Making the Leap Financially as a Creator 00:39:01 Subscriptions vs. Advertising as the Real Business Model #MostlyGrowthPodcast #CreatorEconomy #IndependentCreator #NewsletterBusiness #YearInReview This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    41 min
  4. Capital Spoilage and Leakage: A CFO’s Guide to Finding What’s Lost | Mostly Classics

    25/12/2025

    Capital Spoilage and Leakage: A CFO’s Guide to Finding What’s Lost | Mostly Classics

    [Original air date: June 5, 2025] How can finance leaders identify where their capital is silently going to waste and where it can be better used to drive growth? In this episode, CJ interviews Russell Lester, the CFO of Tropic, where capital allocation is both the product and the mission. Russell introduces the concept of “spoilage”, deployed capital that fails to deliver its intended value. He also talks about “levers”, positive actions that force multiply your efforts, and “leakages”, headwinds or detractors that sap momentum. Russell believes it is the job of the CFO (or “Chief Alignment Officer”) to proactively go looking for these levers and leakages. He then explains how he uses his “center of the table” framework to redeploy the freed-up capital to fuel growth. Russell also covers how to address misalignment, what helicopter skills are and why you need them, what a data safari is and why you should take one daily, and why every CFO needs a spend management tool. — SPONSORS: Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Sage Intacct is a cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, automates workflows, and keeps your books audit-ready as you scale. It unifies accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for finance, retail, logistics, tech, and professional services. With payback in under six months and up to 250% ROI, and eight years as the customer-satisfaction leader, Sage Intacct helps you take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHt Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. — LINKS: Russell on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/russell-lester-aa98463/ Tropic: https://www.tropicapp.io/ CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: Wasted Capital and Where to Find It The CFOs Guide to Spoilage Levers Leakages https://youtu.be/xOby7CcdljI — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Mostly Classics: Russell Lester on Capital and Alignment 00:00:48 Sponsors — Tipalti | Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares 00:04:07 Russell Lester Joins the Show 00:06:45 Capital Spoilage and Wasted Spend 00:08:34 Why Spoilage Goes Unnoticed Inside Companies 00:10:16 Creating Accountability for ROI 00:11:08 Spoilage Beyond Tools and Software 00:13:04 Strategy Drift and the Sunk Cost Trap 00:14:14 Sponsors — Sage Intacct | Mercury | RightRev 00:17:44 Levers and Leakages: A Framework for Momentum 00:19:27 Identifying Levers Across the Funnel 00:21:48 Efficiency Levers Inside the P&L 00:23:31 Common Spend Leakages in Practice 00:24:21 The Center of the Table Framework 00:26:47 Budget Ownership vs Corporate Stewardship 00:28:49 The CFO as Chief Alignment Officer 00:31:31 Trust, Tact, and Executive Leadership 00:33:35 Helicopter Skills for Finance Leaders 00:35:41 Curiosity as a CFO Superpower 00:36:02 Data Safaris and Asking Better Questions 00:38:16 Breaking Down Net Dollar Retention 00:40:32 Navigating Data Overload 00:42:16 Building a Single Source of Truth 00:43:03 Intelligent Spend Management in Action 00:44:44 Capital Allocation as the CFO’s Core Job 00:46:04 How Spend Management Drives Growth 00:49:14 Why Companies Delay Spend Tools 00:50:49 A Career Mistake with Investors 00:52:49 Auto-Renewals: Revenue vs Leakage 00:54:07 Advice to a Younger CFO #RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOLeadership #CapitalAllocation #FinancialStrategy #SpendManagement This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    57 min
  5. From CFO to Founder: Inside the Making of Mostly Media | Paul Stansik Interviews CJ

    22/12/2025

    From CFO to Founder: Inside the Making of Mostly Media | Paul Stansik Interviews CJ

    In this special, table-turning episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson steps out of the host’s chair as Paul Stansik—Operating Partner at ParkerGale and author of the Hello Operator newsletter—takes over the interview. What began as a planned discussion on annual planning best practices quickly evolves into a candid deep dive on Mostly Media, CJ’s growing niche B2B media business, and the thinking behind his own operating plan for the year ahead. Fresh off exiting his CFO role in January 2025, CJ walks through the origin story of Mostly Metrics, how it scaled into a broader media platform, and what it’s like being “the boss of me” for the first time. Paul presses on the real questions—growth opportunities, monetization, and strategic tradeoffs—making this episode a transparent look at how a modern, metrics-driven media business is built and run. — SPONSORS: RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Sage Intacct is a cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, automates workflows, and keeps your books audit-ready as you scale. It unifies accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for finance, retail, logistics, tech, and professional services. With payback in under six months and up to 250% ROI, and eight years as the customer-satisfaction leader, Sage Intacct helps you take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHt Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com — LINKS: Paul on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulstansik/ Hello Operator: https://hellooperator.substack.com/ CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: Portfolio Operations: This Is What You Actually Have To Do To Make Sure a Company Is Successful https://youtu.be/pOj4JwGUTSo Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantz https://youtu.be/ijFIMmtpLNw — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:02:10 Sponsors — RightRev | Tipalti | Aleph 00:06:23 Episode Setup and Context 00:07:22 Why This Episode Exists 00:08:44 The Origin Story 00:10:03 First Signs of Traction 00:10:26 Memes, Early Growth, and “Big Ballers” 00:12:01 Defining the Brand Feel 00:13:28 Leaving a Job to Write 00:15:07 Writing His Way to CFO 00:16:26 Sponsors — Fidelity Private Shares | Sage Intacct | Mercury 00:19:01 Growth Tactics That Worked 00:21:31 First Monetization Moment 00:22:13 Balancing CFO Life and Media 00:24:06 Going All-In on the Business 00:25:02 A CFO Lens on Media 00:28:09 Asset Businesses vs Cash Flow 00:31:35 How the Business Makes Money 00:32:42 Revenue Compounding Over Time 00:33:29 Scaling to $3M 00:34:08 Partnerships and Buying Cycles 00:36:19 Building the Core Team 00:39:09 Adding Recruiting to the Mix 00:41:01 Strategy for the Next Phase 00:42:03 Boredom, Discipline, and Craft 00:43:08 Defining the Core Audience 00:46:09 Staying in the Game 00:47:22 Advice for Creators 00:49:15 Brand, Fun, and Value 00:52:08 Following the Momentum 00:53:14 Finding Your Unique Edge 00:55:19 Enjoying the Build 00:56:25 Closing and Outro #RunTheNumbersPodcast #creatoreconomy #mediabusiness #cfoperspective #buildinpublic This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    57 min
  6. AirPods as Recurring Revenue, Direct Mail’s Revival, and Other Growth Predictions | Mostly Growth

    20/12/2025

    AirPods as Recurring Revenue, Direct Mail’s Revival, and Other Growth Predictions | Mostly Growth

    Mostly Growth on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MostlyGrowth Mostly Growth on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mostly-growth/id1842238102 Mostly Growth on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3KDtaLaXx1obFp5PUhZ6V3 In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman unpack a wide-ranging set of predictions and observations about where go-to-market strategy, AI, and pricing models are headed next. They discuss why what ChatGPT says about your product may become a core marketing KPI, the resurgence of direct mail and physical touchpoints in an AI-saturated world, and why “almost as good as a human” is a dangerous positioning for AI-driven products. The conversation also explores AI monetization paths through advertising, the risk of an AI infrastructure timing mismatch leading to a broader financial pullback, and what historical parallels like railroads and the Sears catalog can teach us about today’s buildout. The episode closes with real-world pricing lessons, from energy-as-a-service solar subscriptions to the surprisingly massive standalone economics of Apple’s AirPods, tying together how distribution, perception, and monetization shape durable growth. — SPONSORS: Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com — LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/ Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/ Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/ Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/ — RELATED EPISODES: 996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaos https://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo The Layer-Cake Playbook for Vertical SaaS Growth | with Roland Ligtenberg https://youtu.be/yPxWvhPISKo OpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust? https://youtu.be/L6PLnvjcnpk From Birding Apps to Billion-Dollar Bundles: The Future of SaaS Growth https://youtu.be/mzITrIP70Ok Where Did All the Middle Managers Go? https://youtu.be/LvN7RzmApPU — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:01:40 Sponsors — Pulley, Metronome 00:04:00 Welcome Back And Consumer Friction 00:05:29 Insurance Middlemen Frustrations 00:07:07 Explaining Newsletter Businesses 00:07:58 Family Perceptions Of Work 00:09:05 GTM And Growth Predictions 00:10:19 Trust And Objectivity In ChatGPT 00:12:01 ChatGPT As Marketing KPI 00:14:14 Direct Mail Marketing Comeback 00:15:56 Tech Buying Media Assets 00:17:52 Fake Subscribers And Email Lore 00:19:03 AI Quality Over Automation 00:22:11 AI Healthcare And Ad Models 00:24:40 Advertising Fuels AI Economics 00:25:40 AI Boom Versus Bust Timing 00:27:49 Infrastructure Before Killer Apps 00:30:21 Railroad Economics And Real Estate 00:30:46 Solar Subscriptions And Pricing 00:32:50 AirPods As Recurring Revenue 00:34:57 Show Outro And Credits #MostlyGrowthPodcast #GrowthMarketing #AITrends #GoToMarket #StartupStrategy This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    35 min
  7. Running the Long Game in Growth Equity | Larry Contrella

    18/12/2025

    Running the Long Game in Growth Equity | Larry Contrella

    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Larry Contrella, General Partner at JMI Equity, to unpack how JMI invests in software without financial engineering or roll-up strategies. Larry explains how the firm builds conviction through founder relationships, long-term partnership, and a product-and-brand-first view of durable growth. They discuss how JMI supports companies through scaling, why operating partners keep returning, and how underwriting looks different in mission-driven sectors like K–12 and nonprofit tech where customers are schools and communities, not Fortune 500s. Larry’s background as a competitive runner at Penn ties the conversation together with a clear ethos: patience, discipline, and playing the long game. — SPONSORS: Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Sage Intacct is a cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, automates workflows, and keeps your books audit-ready as you scale. It unifies accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for finance, retail, logistics, tech, and professional services. With payback in under six months and up to 250% ROI, and eight years as the customer-satisfaction leader, Sage Intacct helps you take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHt — LINKS: Larry on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/larry-contrella-160a8a25/ JMI Equity: https://www.jmi.com/ CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: Is taking a company public even worth it? | Fullstory’s Chad Gold https://youtu.be/zSD8y9dr4Vg So You’re Looking for a “Strategic” CFO? Bloomerang’s Steve Isom on What That Really Means https://youtu.be/cgHOtvG1Ces — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:02:49 Sponsors — Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti 00:06:41 Joining the JMI Conversation 00:07:13 College Running and Team Dynamics 00:08:13 New York Marathon Story and Career Intersection 00:11:04 Competitive Drive and Patience With Founders 00:12:54 Building Long-Term Partnerships and Underwriting Credibility 00:15:27 Growth Equity as a Long Sales Cycle 00:15:48 Sponsors — Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares | Sage Intacct 00:18:44 Fund Planning, Deal Pacing, and Board Commitments 00:20:59 Sourcing Philosophy and Developing Investors Over Time 00:22:09 Hustle as the Only Sustainable Edge in Sourcing 00:24:14 Early Sourcing Tactics and Information Arbitrage 00:26:06 Reputation, Experience, and Breaking Into Competitive Deals 00:29:42 Organic Growth Over Roll-Ups and M&A Discipline 00:32:51 Brand, Product Leadership, and Paying for the Best Businesses 00:33:29 Bloomerang and Brand-Led Growth in Nonprofit Software 00:34:46 Why JMI Operators Keep Coming Back 00:36:28 Collaborative Leadership and Giving Constructive Advice 00:38:20 Using Data Without Slowing Decisions 00:39:20 Transparency, Alignment, and Knowing Where You Stand 00:40:31 Why JMI Invests in K–12 and EdTech 00:42:07 Mission-Driven Businesses and Talent Advantage 00:43:24 Monetization Models in Nonprofit SaaS 00:45:40 Conviction Bets and Product-Market Fit Stories 00:48:49 Rethinking TAM and Expanding Markets Over Time 00:50:40 Lightning Round: Sourcing Stories and Lessons 00:52:58 Traits of Great Founders and Changing Beliefs 00:54:20 Closing Thoughts and Outro #RunTheNumbersPodcast #GrowthEquity #B2BSoftware #FounderRelationships #PrivateEquity This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    55 min
  8. Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brown

    15/12/2025

    Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brown

    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Brian Brown, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer at Rocket Companies, to unpack how Rocket has built a differentiated, full-stack fintech business far beyond its mortgage roots. The conversation explores Rocket’s approach to long-tail monetization, the strategic importance of mortgage servicing, and how recapture rates become a durable competitive advantage in volatile rate environments. Brian shares lessons from leading complex M&A transactions, managing a business that reacts in real time to macro signals, and building a finance organization that prioritizes storytelling, strategy, and cross-functional thinking over pure accounting prowess. The result is a wide-ranging discussion on what traditional financial services companies can teach modern SaaS and fintech leaders about metrics, brand, and disciplined execution. — SPONSORS: Sage Intacct is a cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, automates workflows, and keeps your books audit-ready as you scale. It unifies accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for finance, retail, logistics, tech, and professional services. With payback in under six months and up to 250% ROI, and eight years as the customer-satisfaction leader, Sage Intacct helps you take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHt Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. — LINKS: Brian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-brown-3aa37a8a/ Rocket Companies: https://rocket.com/ CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: From $500M Losses to $500M Profits: The CFO Who Helped Major League Baseball Win off the Field https://youtu.be/7xw9qY2w5C4 — TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Preview and Intro 00:02:30 Sponsors — Sage Intacct | Mercury | RightRev 00:05:55 CJ’s Rocket Mortgage Fanboy Moment 00:07:13 How Rocket Mortgage Actually Makes Money 00:12:06 Investing in Brand Trust for Infrequent but High-Stakes Decisions 00:15:17 Mortgage Servicing as a Long-Term Relationship Engine 00:17:17 Sponsors — Tipalti | Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares 00:20:40 Why the Long Tail of Customer Relationships Is Underrated 00:23:01 Recapture Rate and Why Mortgage Loyalty Is Broken 00:25:23 Lower CAC Through Lifetime Value and Repeat Borrowers 00:30:55 Financial Storytelling as a CFO’s Real Job 00:33:03 Why CFOs Must Sell the Story, Not Just the Numbers 00:40:49 Public vs. Private M&A and Why Public Deals Are Harder 00:45:21 Redfin Acquisition Thesis and Top-of-Funnel Strategy 00:52:18 Being Swarmed by Merger Arb Funds Like Taylor Swift 00:55:18 How Rocket Forecasts in a Volatile Interest Rate Environment 00:58:04 Weekly Forecasting, Scenario Planning, and Avoiding Forecast Fatigue 01:00:32 Finance Teams as Business Consultants and Strategic Partners 01:02:23 Why CFOs Need a Seat at the Strategy Table 01:04:19 Long-Ass Lightning Round: A Leadership Mistake and Building Teams 01:05:58 Leadership Lessons on Team Size and Accountability 01:07:33 Advice to Younger Self and Slowing Down 01:08:49 Finance Software Stack and AI Tools 01:11:31 Lessons from Working with Dan Gilbert 01:16:58 Craziest Expense Story 01:17:55 Outro #RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOLeadership #FinanceStrategy #MergersAndAcquisitions #FinancialStorytelling This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    1h 18m
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About

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    CJ Gustafson
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    270
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Mostly LLC
  • Show Website
    Run the Numbers

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