Tourism Woes and AHMSA Description This week on MexMoves, we speak with David Razú, CEO of Afore XXI Banorte, one of Mexico’s two largest pension managers, with roughly US$100bn in assets under management. Mexico’s Afore system now manages close to US$500bn, and it is getting much bigger: mandatory pension contributions are rising from 6.5% of wages toward 15% by 2030, creating tens of billions of dollars in additional annual inflows to invest. We ask Razú whether workers are earning good returns, how regulation has changed Afore investment, whether Mexico’s capital markets are deep enough to absorb this growing pool of savings, and how much more should be allowed into foreign assets, infrastructure, private equity and private credit. We also discuss informality, whether higher payroll pension costs could push more workers outside the formal system, consolidation among Afores, and the tension between financing Mexico’s development priorities and maximizing risk-adjusted returns for workers. Before the interview: - Energy Investment and Natural Gas Security: Mexico’s dependence on US natural gas comes back into focus after a temporary reduction in cross-border supplies. Mexico imports roughly 75–80% of the gas it consumes and has only a very small storage buffer. At the same time, the government is pushing around US$57bn of electricity investment and almost US$8bn in gas pipelines through 2030, alongside new generation, transmission and renewables. - Tourism: airport and hotel data are flashing warning signs in some of Mexico’s biggest beach markets. September passenger traffic was down roughly 9% in Cancún, 10% in Puerto Vallarta and 8% in Los Cabos, while parts of Tulum and the Riviera Maya are seeing weak occupancy and reduced airline capacity. Mexico is still attracting plenty of visitors, but some major resort destinations are having a difficult year. - AHMSA: the extraordinary bankruptcy saga enters another critical phase, expertly documented in our sister podcast Whitepaper 10. CIESA has submitted a US$1.4bn bid for AHMSA and Minera del Norte, but still needs to prove the money is there. If it fails, creditors including Cargill and Afirme could emerge as an alternative rescue. We look at decades of failed buyers, restructurings and Alonso Ancira’s control of the steelmaker, and why restarting the Monclova complex matters for the regional economy.
