More or Less

0,0 (0)
MATHÉMATIQUES
CHAQUE SEMAINE

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

-2 J

Are refugees more likely to commit crime?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme: Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of alleged sex offenses. So unbelievable I had to check.” We checked too, and the number isn’t right. In the last series of More or Less we suggested that nuclear power plant Hinkley C was spending so much on protecting the fish population that it would cost something like £250,000 per fish saved. We’ve had to take a look at that one too. Last year, we looked at a report by the Bible Society based on polling from YouGov. The Quiet Revival suggested that churchgoing was on the rise in the UK, with young men leading the trend. YouGov now have an update on that survey. How many caterpillars does a blue tit chick eat before it leaves the nest? In a recent nature documentary, Sir David Attenborough said the right number was 20,000. We’re not so sure. If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the more or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Professor David Voas, Emeritus Professor of Social Science in the UCL Social Research Institute Annette Jäckle, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex and a Deputy Director of the UK Household Longitudinal Study Dr Malcolm Burgess, Principal Conservation Scientist at the RSPB CREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower and Josh McGinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

28 min
-6 J

Erdos Problem 1196: Can AI now solve maths that no human can?

It’s said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe? Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a problem he'd been working on for seven years - a 60-year-old conundrum known as "Erdos Problem 1196". The answer had been generated in just 80 minutes - by ChatGPT. Since the end of last year, AI has been providing solutions to a number of novel maths problems, but Problem 1196 is the first to raise eyebrows within the mathematical community. In this episode, we talk to the mathematicians who've worked on Problem 1196 and find out what the rise of AI could mean for the future of their field. CONTRIBUTORS: Katie Steckles, Mathematician and communicator Jared Duker Lichtman, Szegő Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Stanford University Liam Price, amateur mathematician Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
9 MAI

Why it’s wrong to say vaping is as bad for you as smoking

According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death. Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes. But the World Health organisation is also concerned about vaping. Last year they said 100 million people around the world are now using e-cigarettes, including millions of children, and warned that they were fuelling a new wave of nicotine addiction. But how do the health risks of these two means of getting nicotine into your bloodstream compare? According to a recent headline in the Daily Mail, they’re basically the same. Here’s the headline: “Vaping is linked to lung and mouth cancer in major study, as experts warn: 'It is NOT safer than smoking’” But is vaping really just as bad for you as smoking? CONTRIBUTOR: Professor Lion Shahab, Co-Director of the UCL Tobacco and Alcohol Research Group CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O’Neil Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
2 MAI

Does it take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?

If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption. Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple of programmes about the numbers in those arguments and, long story short, they probably aren’t saying what you think they’re saying. But on platforms like X, BlueSky, and TikTok, an opportunity to keep an argument going is rarely missed And one of the numbers that’s been enlisted in that glorious cause concerns the water that’s used for a seemingly unrelated past-time - eating beef. Here’s an example from a user on X: “A kilogram of beef requires over 15,000 litres of water to produce,” they wrote. “A vegan who uses ChatGPT every day is living a more sustainable lifestyle than someone who regularly eats beef while boycotting AI.” Ignoring the AI part, is that true? Does it actually take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef? It turns out that the number isn’t wrong, but it probably isn’t saying what you think it’s saying. If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Mesfin Mekonnen, Assistant Professor at the University of Alabama Mark Mulligan, Professor of Physical and Environmental Geography at King's College London Tim Hess, Professor of Water and Food Systems at Cranfield University CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Emma Harth Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
25 AVR.

Have RFK and MAHA really changed American views on vaccines?

Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground. Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy. In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids. At the same time, last year saw the worst measles outbreak in the US in decades. There were more than 2000 cases last year, and three people died. There have been more than 1500 cases so far in 2026. There’s a lot going on, so it’s possible the public’s views on vaccination are shifting. A new poll published by online news site Politico added a big claim into the mix. According to the headline “more Americans doubt vaccine safety than trust it”. But is that what the survey actually found? Dr David Higgins, a paediatrician and public health assistant professor who writes a Substack called Community Immunity, explains why he believes the headline is misleading. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
18 AVR.

Is Trump right that wind turbines are killing millions of birds?

US president Donald Trump is no fan of wind turbines, or windmills as he calls them. Not only does he think they ruin the view from a golf course he owns in Scotland, but they are also deadly to birds. “If you love birds, you’d never want to walk under a windmill,” he said in 2019. “It’s a very sad, sad sight. It’s like a cemetery. We put a little statue for the poor birds.” Earlier this year he posted on Truth Social saying that wind turbines were killing “millions” of birds. But is that true? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and senior researcher at the University of Oxford, who has dug into the numbers on bird mortality and wind turbines. Credits: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Mhairi MacKenzie Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
11 AVR.

Dr Spock’s dangerous advice on baby sleep

Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority. In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing people's minds is evidence – scientific studies that show beyond doubt that the bad idea is, indeed, a bad idea. That's the subject of a new book by Helen Pearson, titled Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works. An editor at the scientific journal Nature in her day job, the book chronicles those determined individuals who shake up the status quo by gathering just the right kind of evidence. One story in that book stood out to us on More or Less as it shows just what happens when you don't have the evidence you need to challenge a dangerous way of doing things. It's the story of a piece of advice from childcare expert Dr Benjamin Spock. In a 1958 revision of his bestselling parenting guide Baby and Childcare he made a small change to his advice on sleeping position – advising parents to put their babies to sleep on their front. It eventually became clear that this sleeping position was associated with a significant increase in the risk of sudden infant death, or cot death. CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
4 AVR.

How likely is ‘likely’?

When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening. A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is “possible”. But when you hear these terms, do you really know what kind of probabilities they’re trying to convey? Do you know how likely “likely” is? Or what probability “probable” is meant to get across? In some cases, it seems you probably don't. Professor Adam Kucharski, author of Proof, the Uncertain Science of Certainty, designed a quiz to work out the actual probabilities of the language we use to convey risks. The data he got back shows how sometimes these words mean very different things to different people. If you want to try the quiz for yourself, head over to https://probability.kucharski.io/ Email the More or Less team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CREDITS: Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min

Tout afficher (1,1 k)

The Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, technology, health – we cover it all with expert analysis and insight. Get the news that matters, delivered twice a day on weekdays and daily at weekends, plus special bonus episodes reacting to urgent breaking stories. Follow or subscribe now and never miss a moment. Get in touch: globalpodcast@bbc.co.uk

4,2 (14)

ACTUS DU JOUR
Interviews, news and analysis of the day’s global events.

5,0 (1)

ACTUS DU JOUR
Spanning history, religion, culture, science and philosophy, In Our Time from BBC Radio 4 is essential listening for the intellectually curious. In each episode, host Misha Glenny and expert guests explore the characters, events and discoveries that have shaped our world. History fans can learn about pivotal wars and societal upheavals, such as the rise and fall of Napoleon, the Sack of Rome in 1527, and the political intrigue of the Russian Revolution. Those fascinated by the lives of kings and queens can journey to Versailles to meet Marie Antoinette and Louis XIV the Sun King, or to Ancient Egypt to meet Cleopatra and Nefertiti. Or perhaps you're looking to explore the history of religion, from Buddhism's early teachings to the Protestant Reformation. If you're interested in the stories behind iconic works of art, music and literature, dive in to discussions on the artistic genius of Michelangelo's Sistine Chapel and Van Gogh's famous Sunflowers. From Gothic architecture to the works of Shakespeare, each episode of In Our Time offers new insight into humanity's cultural achievements. Those looking to enrich their scientific knowledge can hear episodes on black holes, the Periodic Table, and classical theories of gravity, motion, evolution and relativity. Learn how the discovery of penicillin revolutionised medicine, and how the death of stars can lead to the formation of new planets. Lovers of philosophy will find episodes on the big issues that define existence, from free will and ethics, to liberty and justice. In what ways did celebrated philosophers such as Mary Wollstonecraft and Karl Marx push forward radical new ideas? How has the concept of karma evolved from the ancient Sanskrit texts of Hinduism to today? What was Plato's concept of an ideal republic, and how did he explore this through the legend of the lost city of Atlantis? In Our Time celebrates the pursuit of knowledge and the enduring power of ideas.

5,0 (2)

HISTOIRE
Where the world and America meet, with episodes each weekday. The world is changing. Decisions made in the US and by the second Trump administration are accelerating that change. But they are also a symptom of it. With Asma Khalid in DC, Tristan Redman in London, and the backing of the BBC’s international newsroom, The Global Story brings clarity to politics, business and foreign policy in a time of connection and disruption.

0,0 (0)

ACTUS DU JOUR
Jamie Bartlett asks why, in so many parts of modern life, fakery is no longer punished - it's rewarded. And why so many of us seem strangely unbothered by it.

0,0 (0)

TECHNOLOGIES
The latest business and finance news from around the world, on the BBC.

5,0 (2)

ACTUALITÉ ÉCONOMIQUE