The Transfer Flow Podcast

Theodore Knutson
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Transfer and team analysis, plus interviews with some of the best in the football business.

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    Why the Next Spurs Manager Will Fail Too + How Do You Fix an Injury Crisis

    Tottenham have sacked Thomas Frank, but will it actually change anything? In this episode we break down why the next Spurs manager could be walking into the same structural problems. From squad construction and midfield imbalance to the injury spiral and long-term strategy, this feels bigger than one coach. We discuss why Frank’s expected “floor” never materialised, what Spurs are missing behind the scenes, and what kind of profile would realistically make sense next. There’s also a wider conversation about injury crises in the Premier League, how clubs get stuck in doom loops, and whether squad building is the real preventative solution. Finally, we take a look at the La Liga title race. Why Barcelona might have the edge over Real Madrid, how style of play matters against low blocks, and what fixture congestion could mean in the run-in. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:14 - Relegation zone math 02:20 - A long time coming for Frank 03:55 - Who will Spurs get next? 04:34 - Spurs must be run better 06:00 - This is a deeper problem 06:33 - Their relegation risk is low 07:02 - A bleak managerial market? 07:57 - They dug themselves into a big hole + Frank’s floor 09:30 - Bad transfer policy 11:40 - Getting points is all that matters for the moment 13:36 - Longer term, who’s willing to take the job? 14:50 - They need an overachiever 15:56 - Set piece problems + the players haven’t quit 18:04 - 12 days until they play Arsenal 18:53 - Remaining schedule 19:47 - Iraola an option? 21:53 - Would he want it and nothing is guaranteed with him 24:00 - Who’s even available? And Xavi talk 25:15 - People who the Spurs job would be appealing to 26:34 - How do you fix the injury doom spiral? 27:33 - 12 players injured for Spurs 28:14 - UCL games causing problems? 30:20 - Planned substitutions 31:10 - Managing injury and relegation at the same time 31:50 - Squad building problems and fatigue 32:40 - How to prevent the injury crisis 34:05 - This got Maresca sacked from Chelsea 35:40 - Chelsea offer a good blueprint 37:10 - Bad spending and who should get sold 38:40 - La Liga title race 39:49 - Real Madrid still haven’t figured out their lineup 40:50 - Half of the league is battling relegation 41:21 - You must be able to break down low blocks 42:35 - 2 extra UCL games for Real Madrid 43:20 - Barcelona have more weapons

    45 min

  2. 6 DAYS AGO

    Haaland Gets Man City Back in the Title Race + Who’s Getting Relegated

    On this episode of The Transfer Flow, Patrick and Ted break down a chaotic, high-quality clash at Anfield as Manchester City beat Liverpool in a game that felt like a season’s worth of drama packed into 90 minutes. We dig into what City got right, why Liverpool struggled to solve the press, and how a single moment of brilliance nearly changed the story again. From there, we zoom out to the title race and ask whether City are really back, what Arsenal should be focusing on down the stretch, and why controlling games in the Premier League feels harder than ever right now. Along the way, we talk Erling Haaland’s underrated all-around impact, elite goalkeeping across the league, and why nobody ever looks comfortable anymore. In the second half, we get into Newcastle’s worrying drop-off, Eddie Howe’s growing list of problems, and how squad depth (or the lack of it) is shaping seasons at both ends of the table. We also look at the relegation battle, West Ham’s faint hopes of a late escape, and why Forest fans should still be nervous. We wrap things up with listener questions, including a deep dive into “hot hand” theory in football, sweet spots for shooting, and what analytics can (and can’t) tell us about form, finishing streaks, and player development. Tickets for The Transfer Flow Conference (May 22, London) are available now for a 10% discount: http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/1981005227964/?discount=earlybird10 Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:33 - Dominik Szoboszlai’s free kick 02:44 - The drama of Liverpool/Man City 04:04 - City’s first half 04:55 - Liverpool on their back foot 05:32 - The quality of players in this match 07:42 - You can’t go hard for 180 minutes every week 08:18 - Sideism for Liverpool? 08:45 - The impact of Haaland 10:53 - Gakpo and Ekitike for Liverpool 11:30 - Pep’s weirdness + Rayan Cherki 12:57 - Late game red card + Is the TItle Race on? 13:44 - City were much stronger in past seasons 14:02 - Eddie Howe and Newcastle 15:15 - Uncalled penalties 16:00 - Newcastle fan’s frustrations 17:10 - Managers need to do less, not more 18:46 - Howe overseeing transfers? 20:01 - Arsenal’s overpayment for depth to win a title 21:02 - Should Arsenal fans be concerned? 22:00 - The other end of the table + faith in Leeds? 23:20 - West Ham’s improvement 24:00 - Will West Ham save themselves? 25:20 - Paco Jemez + Comparing schedules 26:58 - Brentford are flying 27:47 - The Fulham vs Everton game 28:22 - Samuel Chukwueze 29:52 - The crazy goalkeeping in this game 31:22 - Impressive saves across the league 32:18 - Hot Hand Theory 33:45 - Sequencing 34:59 - Tracking shooting training data 36:06 - Creating better players 36:45 - Sweet Spots exist, Hot Hand isn’t provable for us 37:52 - When the streaky players fall off what do we change? 39:34 - Smaller margins across the league now 40:27 - Juventus are evil 41:24 - Will there be a goalkeeper bubble? 42:04 - TTF Conference tickets and a £25,000 talk? #manchestercity #liverpool #premierleague #arsenal #football #epl #soccer #eplnews #manchestercity #haaland #szoboszlai #salah #wirtz #pepguardiola #newcastle #westham #relegationbattle #foryou #fyp

    46 min

  3. 4 FEB

    The Good, The Bad & The Ugly of the January Transfer Window

    We wrap up the January transfer window by running through the good, the bad, and the ugly of deadline month. Which clubs actually improved? Who paid too much for short-term fixes? And which moves might come back to haunt teams in a year or two? We get into Aston Villa’s win-now approach, Fulham’s expensive gambles on upside, West Ham continuing their long tradition of confusing striker business, and why Ligue 1 quietly had one of the smartest windows overall. There’s also a look at Endrick’s loan to Lyon, Atlético taking a swing on Obed Vargas, and what these deals say about how clubs are thinking longer term. Tickets for the Transfer Flow Conference are still available via the link below, and you can also find a link to Patrick’s charity trek fundraiser if you’d like to support a great cause. Tickets for The Transfer Flow Conference (May 22, London) are available now for a 10% discount: http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/1981005227964/?discount=earlybird10 Patrick's Charity Trek: https://www.justgiving.com/page/patrick-van-straaten-1?utm_medium=FR&utm_source=CL Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:02 - Aston Villa 04:19 - A lot of money spent 05:52 - How quickly can you integrate January moves? 07:01 - These players will help them secure the Champions League spots 07:47 - Tammy Abraham 08:19 - Fulham have added players that don’t help them now 09:25 - Oscar Bobb is promising, but hasn’t shown much 11:13 - Bobb’s numbers haven’t even been great 14:14 - Fulham need to pay for robustness and playing time 14:44 - Raul Jimenez and Chris Wood 16:05 - What Fulham’s bread and butter should be 17:25 - Quinten Timber moves for very cheap 18:48 - French teams have been very savvy 19:53 - Endrick and the young talent at Lyon 21:55 - Endrick’s personality vs. his role 22:48 - Not going to the Premier League is a good choice 23:35 - French teams selling to Saudi 25:56 - Go to Saudi, get paid, and go back at pre-peak age 26:34 - The bad: West Ham 28:28 - Will they regret spending this money? 29:07 - Got a lot of money for Paqueta 30:06 - Could you have gotten the same player 3 years ago? 30:58 - Playing time as a resource 32:22 - Keeping our eye on Crystal Palace 33:13 - The value of Strand Larsen 34:57 - Worry about the McNeil deal? 35:38 - What will Obed Vargas and Ademola Lookman bring to Atleti 38:00 - The Penguin and what he brings 38:50 - If Vargas can add either playmaking or defending then he will be worth multiples #premierleague #transfernews #transferwindow #astonvilla #westham #atleticomadrid #football #soccer #westham #fulham #endrick #lyon #ligue1 #foryou #fyp

    43 min

  4. 2 FEB

    Florian Wirtz and Liverpool are BACK + Chelsea's Defense is Broken

    On today’s episode of The Transfer Flow, Patrick and Ted run through transfer deadline chaos and a genuinely weird Premier League weekend. We start with the biggest rumours flying around late in the window, including Curtis Jones to Inter (and why stats people have always loved him), Ademola Lookman’s move to Atlético, Jean-Philippe Mateta’s failed medical, and the increasingly strange career arc of Jhon Durán. From there, we dig into Spurs’ comeback draw against Manchester City and why Pep’s side still look incapable of controlling games for 90 minutes. We also talk Liverpool’s recent surge, whether Florian Wirtz and Xavi Simons have finally cracked the Premier League learning curve, and why City’s second-half numbers should worry everyone. We wrap up with Chelsea’s worrying trendlines under Liam Rosenior, how much beating Napoli matters for him, and what it would take for Chelsea ownership to make a change. Tickets for The Transfer Flow Conference (May 22, London) are available now for a 10% discount: http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/1981005227964/?discount=earlybird10 Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Accidentally going live and the TTF conference! 02:34 - Jeremy Jacquet to Liverpool or Chelsea? 03:36 - Minutes as a resource 05:30 - Xavi Simons and Florian Wirtz have figured something out 06:10 - Rayan Cherki was BALLING this weekend 06:55 - Curtis Jones to Inter Milan 07:57 - Will Liverpool let Curtis Jones go? 09:02 - Did Jones need more minutes than he got? 10:10 - Connor Gallagher and Jones + alternate realities for Jones 11:37 -Jean-Phillipe Mateta’s failed medical 12:53 - Why more players are failing medicals 14:04 - Learning from past players (Umtiti) 15:36 - Unfortunate for Palace 16:47 - The price for Larsen is not great 17:34 - Ademola Lookman to Atletico Madrid 18:31 - The price isn’t too far off 19:57 - Atleti are confident bringing in older players 20:38 - Simeone’s kids and Zidane/Thuram 21:48 - Jhon Duran leaving Fernebache 23:04 - Red Flags 25:47 - Solanke’s goal and Tottenham vs City 26:42 - 1st vs 2nd half stats 27:41 - City can’t defend with the ball anymore 29:25 - Ekitike making the Isak signing look insane 29:49 - Have Liverpool flipped a switch? 31:02 - Liverpool vs City 32:04 - Man United vs Fulham 33:23 - Ted’s Carrick suggestion from last year 33:55 - Chelsea’s trending is becoming concerning 34:37 - Shifting between tactical styles 36:00 - Carabao Cup potentially enough? 36:55 - How patient will Chelsea’s ownership be with Rosenior? 38:33 - Forcing Patrick to read a children’s book

    40 min

  5. 29 JAN

    Champions League CHAOS + Palace sign Mateta replacement

    Patrick and Neel break down the Premier League striker market, starting with Crystal Palace’s move for Jürgen Strand Larsen and what it says about how clubs are valuing centre-forwards right now. We also get into Bournemouth’s big bet on Brazilian teenager Rayan, why his profile fits the current state of the league, and whether these physical, shot-heavy forwards are the future or a temporary trend. Then it’s full chaos in the Champions League. Benfica stun Real Madrid, PSG and Newcastle trade blows, and the final day of the league phase turns the table upside down. We look at who benefited, who got burned, what the new knockout bracket means, and who are the real threats for the UCL title. Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:16 - Strand Larsen to Crystal Palace 02:32 - The player makes sense, not the price 06:05 - Bournemouth sign Rayan 07:58 - A bit of a risk 09:20 - xG and type of shots 10:46 - Tunnel vision 12:17 - What will they do long term? 14:54 - Coaching situation 16:52 - Champions League drama 17:46 - Benfica stun Real Madrid 18:43 - Did Benfica know they needed a goal? 20:00 - Trubin’s goal 20:57 - PSG and Newcastle draw 21:43 - Extra round is huge for domestic competitions 23:12 - Sporting’s last minute win 24:03 - Newcastle will be kicking themselves 25:53 - The format and fixture difficulty 27:28 - Impact of UCL on league titles 30:40 - The draw friday and potential matchups 31:36 - Real Madrid’s quarterfinal odds 32:50 - The potential for lopsided sides of the draw 34:38 - Teams who will be tough outs 35:37 - Traditional powers aren’t particular good at the moment 36:35 - City’s threat over 2 legs 37:36 - PSG didn’t look dangerous at this time last year 38:33 - EPL teams or Bayern look the favourites #championsleague #realmadrid #barcelona #psg #premierleague #bayernmunich #arsenal #mancity #crystalpalace #epltransfers #epl #transfernews #football #soccer

    41 min

  6. 26 JAN

    Arsenal’s Answer at Striker + Aston Villa Will Change xG Forever

    On today’s episode of The Transfer Flow, Patrick and Ted break down the final week of the January transfer window and the stories shaping the run-in. We start with Spurs’ move for Andy Robertson and whether a 31-year-old fullback on a long contract makes sense for a team still searching for stability. Then we turn to the market’s biggest forward as Arsenal and Barcelona chase Julián Álvarez, asking if he’s worth a nine-figure fee and if he’s the striker Arsenal need. From there we unpack Manchester United’s win over Arsenal, looking at Arteta’s tactical choices, slow restarts, and growing physical strain, plus how United’s press and long-range shooting swung a title race that suddenly feels tighter. We then move to Aston Villa under Unai Emery, questioning whether their long-range goal spree is a genuine tactical edge or a hot streak, what it means for expected goals, and how the modern striker role is evolving as more teams build attacks around creating space for midfield shooters. Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:06 - FBref/Opta situation 02:36 - Impact on people making a career in football? 04:37 - Applying AI to data collection 07:04 - Sign up for The Transfer Flow Conference! 08:04 - Has this window matched expectations? 09:07 - Robertson to Spurs? 12:48 - Gallagher signing thoughts 14:11 - Julian Alvarez linked to Arsenal and Barcelona 16:19 - €100m for a 26 year old? 17:47 - Arsenal need to try again at CF 18:46 - Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr rumours 22:04 - Where will Alvarez land? 23:17 - Should Arsenal fans be worried? 24:18 - Top xG team since December? 26:07 - Are United a good team now? + Arsenal worries 27:00 - No Europe is a GOOD THING for United at the moment 28:40 - Concern meter 29:52 - Finally some rest for Arsenal 31:08 - Odds for Villa to win the league? 33:03 - Restarts should be taken quicker? 34:33 - Villa’s long-range goals and xG off the path? 37:30 - Basketball analogy + how it applies to the PL 39:58 - This might be happening in the PL now 41:00 - Strikers are less involved this season 42:15 - Have Villa found an edge? 43:30 - Game state vs in training 45:12 - Emi Martinez’ performance + flipping the script 46:25 - Have Villa locked up 3rd already? 48:10 - These teams NEED a summer off #arsenal #astonvilla #manchesterunited #tottenham #julianalvarez #premierleague #epl #transfernews #transfers #eplnews #football #soccer #soccerpodcast #foryou #fyp

    54 min

  7. 22 JAN

    Spurs Need To Sign THIS Midfielder + UCL Final Matchday Preview

    On today’s episode, Patrick and Hayden get into the latest transfer stories, starting with Jean-Philippe Mateta’s potential exit from Crystal Palace. Aston Villa, Juventus, and Manchester United have all been linked. Does Mateta actually make sense for any of them, or is this a move that creates more problems than it solves?Next, we look at Hayden Hackney and why the Middlesbrough midfielder is suddenly on Premier League radars. Is he ready for the step up, which clubs fit his skill set best, and why has no one pulled the trigger yet?Finally, we dive into the Champions League league phase table ahead of the final round of fixtures. Who is safe in the top eight, who is heading for the playoff round, and which big clubs are at real risk of missing out?Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlowSubscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribeJoin Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgradeFollow us on our Socials:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1QX: https://x.com/TheTransferFlowBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcastTimestamps:00:00 - Intro01:09 - More info on the conference02:20 - Jean-Philippe Mateta on the move?03:26 - Fit at Juventus05:54 - Aston Villa could get interested09:01 - Age an issue for Villa?09:39 - Best for Juventus?11:57 - Potential risk for Villa14:06 - Hayden Hackney’s skillset15:19 - Why hasn’t he moved yet?16:07 - Fit at Manchester United and Tottenham and potential price17:32 - He needs to be protected a bit20:32 - United need to stockpile young talent22:45 - Champions League final matchday preview23:51 - City on the outside looking in25:13 - Goal difference will be key + who’s safe in top 8 and top 2428:26 - Is 15 points enough?29:29 - PSG/Newscastle and Napoli/Chelsea are HUGE31:00 - Teams having something to play for33:18 - Ball is in Man City, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid’s court35:41 - Liverpool and Real Madrid safe?36:12 - Who can jump into the top 24?39:38 - Is 8 points enough for the playoffs?41:00 - Potential hard matchups in the playoffs#transfernews #premierleague #championsleague #tottenham #epl #crystalpalace #manchesterunited #astonvilla #manchestercity #arsenal #realmadrid #barcelona #football #soccer #foryou #fyp

    44 min

  8. 19 JAN

    How Carrick Used Pep’s Tactics Against Him

    Patrick and Ted break down a packed football week, starting with the latest transfer rumours and what they tell us about the plans taking shape at some of the Premier League’s biggest clubs. We discuss Chelsea’s openness to selling Enzo Fernandez, Manchester United’s interest in Adam Wharton and Elliot Anderson, whether Ruben Neves could be a realistic midfield option, and what Manchester City’s January activity says about their looming rebuild. Then we move onto the weekend’s standout result as Manchester United beat Manchester City. What went wrong for Pep Guardiola, how Michael Carrick set his team up, and whether this performance signals a genuine shift at Old Trafford. Next, we examine Arsenal’s draw at Nottingham Forest and the growing conversation around their attack. Are these real warning signs or simply the reality of competing in a deeper and more physically demanding Premier League. We also turn to Tottenham and Thomas Frank. Why his Spurs project has struggled to take shape, how much of that is down to personnel, and whether the club is already nearing another reset. Plus a look at the AFCON final and why this year’s tournament has once again delivered drama. Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheTransferFlow Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade Follow us on our Socials: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thetransferflow.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:50 - In-person TTF event! 07:24 - Ruben Neves linked to Manchester United 09:29 - United linked with 2 other midfielders already 10:00 - Wharton and Anderson linked 11:36 - City and Real Madrid possibilities? 12:53 - Chelsea willing to sell Enzo? 15:31 - Sell Enzo and buy other players to flip? 16:20 - This transfer window has already been fun 17:48 - Moves to keep an eye on - Alex Toth and Romano Schmid 18:31 - Manchester United beat City, 2-0 20:14 - Rico Lewis was shocking + Is this on Pep? 21:27 - City’s poor press helps hide United’s flaw 24:04 - Carrick used the idea Pep has spent his entire career using 25:26 - Amad Diallo is so dangerous + Carrick thoughts 27:49 - Arsenal draw 0-0 to Forest 28:30 - Was this game actually toothless from Arsenal? 30:25 - Arsenal’s reliance on set pieces 32:52 - There are NO gimmies in the Premier League 34:15 - Our expectations are wrong 37:00 - Pep’s football has not adapted to this season 37:24 - This Arsenal matches up like Jose’s Chelsea teams 42:13 - Do head coaches really matter? 44:24 - The Premier League is way up on the U-curve 44:57 - Thomas Frank in trouble 47:53 - Spurs did not help him this summer 51:39 - Spurs are digging out of mistakes 54:15 - The AFCON final 56:30 - Senegal leave the pitch + Brahim Diaz #manchesterunited #manchestercity #premierleague #pepguardiola #arsenal #chelsea #football #epl #transfernews #transfers #epltransfers #tottenham #michaelcarrick

    1h 1m
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About

Transfer and team analysis, plus interviews with some of the best in the football business.

Information

  • Creator
    Theodore Knutson
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    174
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Theodore Knutson
  • Show Website
    The Transfer Flow Podcast

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