Carnegie Endowment

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Is India’s Moment a Mirage?

India Is Broken: A People Betrayed, Independence to Today is a big new book on India by the economist Ashoka Mody. Mody is an economic historian at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and a longtime official at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. His new book provides readers with an unvarnished look at India’s twin economic and political failures over the past 75 years. Challenging the conventional wisdom, Mody argues that India’s post-independence leaders—from Jawaharlal Nehru all the way to Narendra Modi—have failed to confront India's true economic problems, seeking easy solutions instead. As a popular frustration grew, India’s democracy suffered, leading to an upsurge in nationalism, violence, and corruption. Mody joins Milan on the podcast this week to talk more about his book. The two discuss Mody’s controversial thesis, the inadequacy of GDP as a metric of economic development, and the parallels between pre-Partition India and India of the president. Plus, the two talk about Mody’s solutions for addressing India’s twin economic and political challenges. Notes: Ashoka Mody, “India’s Boom Is a Dangerous Myth,” Project Syndicate, March 29, 2023. Ashoka Mody, “India’s Broken State,” Project Syndicate, February 20, 2023. Milan Vaishnav, When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017).

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The Dissipation of Russian Influence in Moldova

Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency from what it considers “a potential part of Russia.” You can read Maksim Samorukov’s recent paper on Moldova here: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/moldova-russia-strategy?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia Host – Alexander Gabuev Guests – Paula Erizanu and Maksim Samorukov Produced by Dmitrii Kuznetsov Music by Liam Gordon

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Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War

Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West. How accurate are wartime opinion polls? How have the dynamics of support for the war in Russia changed during the past year? Which events have changed public perceptions in Russia over the last 18 months? What needs to happen in 2024 to bring about a change in these perceptions?

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Shoaib Daniyal on How the BJP Conquered West Bengal

When India went to the polls in the Spring of 2019, there were few states that election observers were watching more closely than the state of West Bengal. Home to 100 million Indians and responsible for 42 seats in Parliament, West Bengal is always a state worth watching. Yet, this time was different. For decades, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been a bit player in this eastern state. For three decades, the state was a bastion of India’s Communist parties. And since 2011, the state has been dominated by Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress, a popular Bengali regional party. And, yet, in 2019 the BJP did the unthinkable. It won 18 of Bengal’s seats--earning a stunning 40 percent of the vote. And it did so despite having a minimal party organization on the ground. This summer, Milan sat down with Shoaib Daniyal of the Indian digital news site Scroll.in. During the election, Shoaib did some of the most interesting and most illuminating reporting on the electoral battle in Bengal. Here’s our conversation from the Hindustan Times studio in New Delhi from this July.

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Anit Mukherjee on the ‘Absent Dialogue’ Between Civilians and the Military in India

Over the years, one could fill a small library with books that have been written about how Indian democracy survived against all of the odds—inequality, poverty, a difficult neighborhood, and a sprawling geography. Somewhat surprisingly, however, very few books have been written about the role the military has played—or not played—as it were. Many of India’s neighbors have experienced military coups and some, like Pakistan, have been unable to shake near-constant military involvement in daily political life. And yet, all is not well when it comes to civil-military relations in India. This is the argument of Milan’s guest on the show today, Anit Mukherjee, who is the author of the brand new book, The Absent Dialogue: Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Military in India. Anit is a professor at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore who also just so happens to be a former officer in the Indian Army. Milan and Anit chat about civil-military relations in India, its impact on defense capabilities, and the prospect of reform under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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Arora Akanksha on Her Unlikely Quest to Run the United Nations

Note: Milan’s interview with Arora Akanksha took place on June 18. On June 19, the United Nations General Assembly formally approved a second term for the incumbent António Guterres—officially bringing the selection process to a close. Earlier this month, the United Nations Security Council recommended the reelection of António Guterres as secretary-general, virtually assuring the Portuguese leader a second term at the helm of one of the world’s most consequential bodies. But not everyone is standing by to coronate Mr. Guterres. Arora Akanksha—a Canadian citizen of Indian heritage—is running an insurgent campaign to unseat the incumbent Secretary-General. Her campaign has attracted attention—not only for its boldness—but also because Ms. Akanksha has spent the last several years toiling inside the UN and has been unafraid to call out its shortcomings from within. Arora joins Milan on the podcast this week. The two of them discuss her north Indian roots, circuitous path to the UN, and unlikely decision to run for the UN’s top job. Plus, the two discuss Arora’s diagnosis of what ails the UN and her priorities for reform. Rick Gladstone, “Who Is Arora Akanksha, the 34-Year-Old Running for U.N. Secretary General?” New York TimesAdam Iscoe, “On the Secret Campaign Trail to Lead the U.N.” New YorkerStephanie Fillion, “A Millennial UN Staffer Who Is Daring to Run Against Secretary-General António Guterres,” PassBlue

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Reexamining America’s Bet on India

In a few days, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Washington, D.C. to begin a historic state visit that is expected to further cement ties between the United States and India. Over the past two decades, this relationship has gone from awkward resentment during the Cold War to full-throated embrace after the year 2000. But a new essay by Ashley J. Tellis in Foreign Affairs titled, “America’s Bad Bet on India,” warns that there are limits to U.S.-India cooperation and Washington would be wise to wake up to them. Ashley, who holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Milan on the podcast this week to discuss his essay and his motivations for writing it. Ashley and Milan discuss the bipartisan bet U.S. officials have made on India since the year 2000, the logic of “strategic altruism,” and the challenges facing the bilateral defense partnership. Plus, the two preview Modi’s state visit and discuss both its symbolic importance as well as it’s substantive significance. Episode notes: 1. Ashley J. Tellis, “America’s Bad Bet on India,” Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2023. 2. “U.S.-India Relations, With Ashley J. Tellis,” The President’s Inbox (podcast), May 16, 2023. 3. Ashley J. Tellis, Bibek Debroy, and C. Raja Mohan, eds., Grasping Greatness: Making India a Leading Power (New Delhi: Penguin Viking, 2022) 4. Arzan Tarapore, “America’s Best Bet in the Indo-Pacific,” Foreign Affairs, May 29, 2023.

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Post-Election Russia Resembles the Soviet Union

Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?

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A Conversation with Abdallah BouHabib, Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants

As Lebanon was rocked by two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies directed at Hezbollah’s communications network, killing dozens and injuring thousands, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have risen to new heights. In a fiery speech, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge. How has this latest escalation impacted Lebanon’s internal politics? What are Hezbollah’s options in responding? What are the prospects for defusing not only the current crisis but the complex of issues that have shaped the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? And what role can the U.S. and other international actors and regional parties play in avoiding an all-out war? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with His Excellency Abdallah BouHabib, the foreign minister of Lebanon, to discuss these and other issues.

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Season Finale: Where is Indian Foreign Policy Going?

This season, in twenty episodes, Grand Tamasha has covered a lot of ground—from the war in Ukraine, to the UP elections, and India’s water crisis. We will be taking a little break to recharge our batteries, but we will be back in August with all-new Grand Tamasha content. To bring the curtains down on the seventh season of Grand Tamasha, Milan is joined on the podcast by podcast regulars, Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute and Wall Street Journal and Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution. The trio discusses the foreign policy crisis which engulfed India last week after two BJP spokespersons made statements criticizing the Prophet Mohammed; the 180-degree turn in popular perceptions of India’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and how India was received at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Plus, the three offer their summer reading recommendations for India policy enthusiasts. Sadanand Dhume, “Hindu Nationalism Threatens India’s Rise as a Nation,” Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2022. Shoaib Daniyal, “The India Fix,” Scroll.in.Carnegie India, “Ideas and Institutions,” Carnegie India.Ananth Krishnan, “The India-China Newsletter.”Suyash Desai, “The PLA Bulletin.”Manoj Kewalramani, “Eye on China,” Takshashila Institution.

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Carnegie scholars and their global network of experts give their takes on foreign policy issues around the world.

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Carnegie Endowment

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Is India’s Moment a Mirage?

The Dissipation of Russian Influence in Moldova

Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War

Shoaib Daniyal on How the BJP Conquered West Bengal

Anit Mukherjee on the ‘Absent Dialogue’ Between Civilians and the Military in India

Arora Akanksha on Her Unlikely Quest to Run the United Nations

Reexamining America’s Bet on India

Post-Election Russia Resembles the Soviet Union

A Conversation with Abdallah BouHabib, Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants

Season Finale: Where is Indian Foreign Policy Going?

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