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BFM Media

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  1. 5 DAYS AGO

    Divided We Fall? ASEAN Vs Trump Tariffs

    Following President Trump’s "Liberation Day" announcement threatening ASEAN with up to 49% tariffs, IDEAS argues that the member states of the 600-million-strong bloc panicked. Vietnam and Cambodia rushed to cut deals immediately, and Malaysia eventually followed suit with the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), albeit after initial attempts to rally the region failed. We sit down with Dr. Stewart Nixon, author of the report "Divided We Fall," to dissect why ASEAN chose self-preservation over solidarity and the potentially dangerous concessions buried in the fine print. We discuss: The "Panic" Discount: How Vietnam and Thailand’s rush to Washington sparked a regional "arms race" of concessions, handing leverage directly to Trump. Section 5 & Sovereignty: The controversial clause in Malaysia's deal that links trade policy to US national security, effectively forcing Malaysia to police US interests against China within its own borders. The "Transshipment" Trap: Why vague definitions of "circumvention" in the new deal create a compliance nightmare for manufacturers planning their supply chains. Convenor vs. Captain: Why the ASEAN Chair failed to rally the troops, in stark contrast to the EU’s unified stand against Washington. The Illusion of Safety: Dr. Nixon argues that buying "certainty" from Trump is a myth, citing how the USMCA did not protect Canada or Mexico from future tariff threats. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    36 min
  2. 14 JAN

    When China Sneezes: The Slowdown Spillover Across APAC

    2026 presents a landscape of mixed signals for Asia-Pacific: US tariffs are at their highest levels since the 1930s (effective rate of 13.6%), and China’s growth is projected to slow to 4.1%. Yet, Fitch Ratings has maintained a Neutral outlook for the sector. Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, joins BFM to break down the region's "two-speed recovery", where AI-driven economies surge while traditional exporters lag, and warns that fiscal buffers are slowly eroding as government debt climbs. We discuss:. The "Neutral" Verdict: Why Fitch maintains a stable sector outlook despite geopolitical headwinds, citing strong FX reserves and credit buffers in developed markets. The "Two-Speed" Recovery: How the AI boom is shielding tech-heavy nations while non-tech exporters face dampened demand from the US and China. The China Slowdown: The impact of China’s downgrade to 'A' and the property slump on the broader region, with spillover effects hitting commodity prices and consumption. Fiscal Erosions & Social Unrest: With median government debt-to-GDP rising to 50.1%, we discuss why fiscal consolidation is stalling and how social unrest (e.g., Nepal, Indonesia) is forcing governments to spend more. Country Watchlist: Malaysia: Rated 'BBB+' (Stable) supported by political stability and 4% growth, though debt reduction remains gradual. Thailand: The outlier with a Negative outlook due to delayed tourism recovery and high household debt. The Danger Zone: Why the Maldives ('CC') faces a critical test with a $500m Sukuk repayment in April. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    32 min

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Helping you navigate the ever-changing universe of business, from headlines to the bottom line