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13 APR

050 | 特朗普关税风暴：草台班子的大棋？Trump's Tariff Storm: A Ragtag Crew's Grand Strategy?

【聊了什么】特朗普在4月2日「解放日」突然宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征高额「对等关税」，引发金融市场剧烈动荡。在短短一周内经历了180度大转弯——对除中国外的多数国家暂停征收额外关税，但对华关税则进一步升级。这背后究竟发生了什么？是特朗普政府深思熟虑的「一盘大棋」，旨在重塑全球贸易格局、打击特定国家？还是白宫内部不同派系——财政部、贸易鹰派（如纳瓦罗）、经济顾问（如Stephen Miran）——目标各异、甚至相互矛盾的结果？特朗普本人对关税根深蒂固的执念，与他第二任期不受约束的执政风格，又在其中扮演了什么角色？本期节目，我们邀请了全球市场的交易员Sagar一起深入解读这场关税风暴。本期节目录制于4月12日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:04 事件回顾：特朗普4月2日宣布「对等关税」及后续反转 04:01 关税公式背后的荒谬逻辑 07:18 特朗普对关税的长期执念 vs 第二任期的放飞自我 12:43 三盘「大棋」：财政部 vs 纳瓦罗 vs 米兰 17:09 市场反应与经济影响 24:47 特朗普的核心动机：财政压力还是个人意志？ 30:00 美债市场的动荡及其影响 42:18 政治影响：国会反应、特朗普党内控制力 01:03:25 未来展望：谈判前景、多边贸易体系的挑战 01:07:01 TikTok问题与中美贸易谈判【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：小华：媒体人王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Sagar：全球市场交易员【 What We Talked About】 On "Liberation Day," April 2nd, Donald Trump abruptly announced hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on major global trading partners, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Within just one week, the policy underwent a dramatic U-turn – additional tariffs were suspended for most countries except China, whose tariffs were instead escalated. What truly happened behind the scenes? Was it a calculated "grand strategy" by the Trump administration aimed at reshaping global trade and targeting specific nations? Or was it the result of conflicting, even contradictory, goals among different factions within the White House – the Treasury Department, trade hawks like Navarro, and economic advisors like Stephen Miran? What role did Trump's own deep-seated obsession with tariffs and his less constrained governing style in his second term play? In this episode, we invite Sagar, a global markets trader, for an in-depth analysis of this tariff turmoil. This episode was recorded on April 12th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:04 Recap: Trump's April 2nd "Reciprocal Tariffs" & Subsequent Reversals 04:01 The Absurd Logic Behind the Tariff Formula 07:18 Trump's Longstanding Tariff Obsession vs. Second Term Unbound 12:43 Three "Grand Strategies": Treasury vs. Navarro vs. Miran 17:09 Market Reaction & Economic Impact 24:47 Trump's Core Motivations: Fiscal Pressure or Personal Will? 30:00 US Treasury Market Turmoil & Its Impacts 42:18 Political Fallout: Congressional Reaction, Trump's GOP Control 01:03:25 Future Outlook: Negotiation Prospects, Challenges to Multilateral Trade 01:07:01 The TikTok Issue & US-China Trade Talks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Sagar: Global Markets Trader 【The Links】 https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

13 Apr

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1h 10m
17/06/2024

018 | 飞黄腾达2024：谁会是特朗普的副总统 Who Could Be Trump's VP Pick

【聊了什么】特朗普选择副总统的过程被他办成了一场《飞黄腾达》，迷雾重重。这期节目录制于5月25日，但截至6月中旬，似乎也没有新的进展可以补充。一方面，特朗普确实将悬念拉满，另一方面，其实明面的牌早就摊得差不多了。除了特朗普的心思我们无法猜测，其他可以讨论的内容，你都可以在本期播客中听到。可以遇见，随着总统辩论和党代会的临近，我们距离谜底揭晓也不远了。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:00 什么时候开始挑副总统候选人 05:05 切尼搬家：为什么总统和副总统不能来自同一个州 08:10 选副总统的基本原则：平衡选票 10:05 平衡选票之拜登选贺锦丽（Kamala Harris） 11:42 贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）的亚裔背景为什么被忽视 14:58 平衡选票之特朗普选彭斯（Mike Pence） 18:32 特朗普看重的忠诚到底是指什么 26:38 忠诚对于追求特朗普政府内职务的人更重要 28:44 尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley） 30:16 马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 33:05 对副总统的执政经验的要求 40:05 特朗普需要潜在的副总统候选人干什么 41:30 继续聊黑利（Nikki Haley） 43:06 埃莉斯·史蒂芬尼克（Elise Stefanik） 46:45 JD 万斯（JD Vance） 49:10 盛产副总统的参议院 50:48 卢比奥（Marco Rubio） 52:10 蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott） 54:33 汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton） 01:01:53 凯蒂·布里特（Katie Britt） 01:02:58 本·卡森（Ben Carson） 01:04:21 卡丽·莱克（Kari Lake） 01:06:23 拉瓦斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy） 01:08:42 道格·伯古姆（Doug Burgum） 01:11:14 克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem） 01:18:38 莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯（Sarah Huckabee Sanders） 01:20:12 关于今年的总统辩论 01:26:43 格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott） 01:30:44 拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds） 01:32:20 图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard） 01:33:53 神棍一下特朗普会选谁【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者【 What We Talked About】 This year, Trump's selection of a vice presidential candidate has turned into a real-life version of "The Apprentice," shrouded in mystery. We recorded this episode on May 25th, and even by mid-June, there doesn't seem to be much new information. On one hand, Trump has genuinely kept the suspense high; on the other, it shows that the obvious options have already been laid out. While we can't predict Trump's thoughts, you can catch up on everything else worth discussing in this episode. As the first presidential debate and GOP convention approach, the revelation of his choice is likely not far off. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:00 When to start picking the Vice President candidate 05:05 Dick Cheney: Why the President and Vice President cannot be from the same state 08:10 Basic principles of choosing a Vice President: Balancing the ticket 10:05 Balancing the ticket: Biden choosing Kamala Harris 11:42 Why Kamala Harris's Asian background was overlooked 14:58 Balancing the ticket: Trump choosing Pence 18:32 What loyalty means to Trump 26:38 Loyalty is more important for those seeking positions within the Trump administration 28:44 Nikki Haley 30:16 Marco Rubio 33:05 Requirements for the Vice President's governing experience 40:05 What Trump needs from potential Vice Presidential candidates 41:30 Back to Nikki Haley 43:06 Elise Stefanik 46:45 JD Vance 49:10 The Senate as a breeding ground for Vice Presidents 50:48 Marco Rubio 52:10 Tim Scott 54:33 Tom Cotton 01:01:53 Katie Britt 01:02:58 Ben Carson 01:04:21 Kari Lake 01:06:23 Vivek Ramaswamy 01:08:42 Doug Burgum 01:11:14 Kristi Noem 01:18:38 Sarah Huckabee Sanders 01:20:12 About this year's presidential debates 01:26:43 Greg Abbott 01:30:44 Byron Donalds 01:32:20 Tulsi Gabbard 01:33:53 Irresponsible prediction on who Trump will choose 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

17/06/2024

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1h 39m
30/06/2024

019 | 灾难性的辩论之后，拜登输定了吗？Can Biden Survive the Disastrous Debate?

【聊了什么】灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。本期播客录制于6月29日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划众筹平台链接： Patreon 爱发电合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾 00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点 00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响 00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误 00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民 00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误 00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应 00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登 00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊 00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性 00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登 00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？ 00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？ 01:01:10 不负责任的预测【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice? In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down. This episode was recorded on June 29th. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances 00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate 00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape 00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team 00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters 00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy 00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate 00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden 00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate 00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate 00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down? 00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden? 00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden? 01:01:10 Update on our predictions 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应 012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

30/06/2024

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1h 4m
10/07/2024

020 | 罗诉韦德被推翻两周年：为了反抗的纪念 Two-Year Anniversary of the Overturning of Roe v. Wade

【聊了什么】 2022年6月，美国最高法院推翻了维持了半个世纪的联邦宪法保障女性堕胎权的里程碑式判决——罗诉韦德案（Roe v. Wade）。取而代之的是道布斯案（Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization），声称将堕胎权问题归还各州处理。这一决定引发了全国范围内的激烈争议，持续至今。在本期播客中，我们将深入分析过去两年各州议会在堕胎权立法和司法审查上的激烈博弈，探讨堕胎权在全国范围内的可及性危机，回顾联邦法院在堕胎权相关议题上作出的若干重要判决，并展望堕胎权在即将到来的2024年大选中可能发挥的作用。本期播客最初录制于5月19日，并在7月3日根据最高法院最新判决进行了补充录制。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:45 堕胎问题的“州权”和“反扑” 00:04:09 各州的堕胎相关新立法 00:06:39 德州极端堕胎法造成医疗危机后民主党擦屁股 00:09:41 为何各州反堕胎立法漏洞频出 00:14:51 州最高法院引人瞩目的堕胎判决和后果 00:18:37 亚利桑那州高院反堕胎判决是如何起到反效果的 00:22:46 堕胎权公投和选举：“仁义不施而攻守之势异” 00:29:26 堕胎权在全国的可及性危机 00:35:38 联邦最高法院持续介入堕胎权问题 00:36:18 米非司酮案：保守派法官削弱行政部门 00:49:43 紧急堕胎医疗与“医生的良心” 00:56:33 古老的Comstock法案与今天的堕胎权 01:05:04 堕胎权被推翻会引发其他“隐私权”重审吗 01:14:06 美国和其他国家的堕胎权发展史大相径庭 01:21:39 特朗普摇摆不定的堕胎权立场 01:27:16 全国堕胎权禁令和堕胎权与大选的未来 01:36:16 高院在米非司酮案中支持FDA的前因后果 01:39:56 推翻“雪佛龙尊重”和堕胎权行政诉讼 01:47:56 高院未表态紧急堕胎医疗案中的实质问题【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士【 What We Talked About】 In June of 2022, the United States Supreme Court overturned the milestone opinion that ensured women’s right to abortion in the federal Constitution for half a century – Roe v. Wade. Instead, the Dobbs opinion proclaimed to return the issue of abortion to the states. For the past two years, controversies surrounding abortion rights have only grown louder nationwide. This episode of the podcast analyzes the interplay between state legislative enactments and judicial review on the issue of abortion rights over the past two years, the national accessibility crisis of abortion rights, several decisions produced by federal courts on abortion-related issues, and the potential role of abortion rights in the upcoming 2024 elections. This episode was initially recorded on May 19th and supplemented on July 3rd following the latest Supreme Court decisions. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:45 “State rights” and “backlash” of the abortion question 00:04:09 New state legislations on abortion 00:06:39 Extreme abortion laws in Texas cause a medical crisis while Democrats try to save the day 00:09:41 Why are anti-abortion state laws full of loopholes 00:14:51 Eye-catching state supreme court abortion decisions and consequences 00:18:37 How the Arizona Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decision backfired 00:22:46 Abortion right on the ballot and in the elections: “When benevolence and righteousness are not practiced, the balance of attack and defense shall alter.” 00:29:26 National accessibility crisis of abortion rights 00:35:38 Federal Supreme Court continues to weigh in on abortion rights 00:36:18 Mifepristone case: conservative justices weaken the administrative state 00:49:43 EMTALA, emergency abortion care, and “a doctor’s conscience” 00:56:33 Ancient Comstock Act and today’s abortion rights 01:05:04 Will overturning abortion rights lead to a retrial of other “privacy rights”? 01:16:06 American abortion rights as an international anti-trend 01:21:39 Swinging abortion position of Trump 01:27:16 National abortion ban, and the future of abortion rights and the elections 01:36:16 How the Supreme Court supported the FDA in the mifepristone case 01:39:56 Overturning “Chevron deference” and administrative litigation of abortion rights 01:47:56 Supreme Court failed to substantively rule on the EMTALA abortion case 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin：American law student, New York litigator soon-to-be 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate 【拓展链接】嘉宾推荐的论文： Roe Rage: Democratic Constitutionalism and Backlash https://law.yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/Faculty/Siegel_RoeRageDemocraticConstitutionalismAndBacklash.pdf 推翻雪佛龙尊重的高院重磅判决： Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/loper-bright-enterprises-v-raimondo/ 一氧化二氮（笑气）与氮氧化物（大气污染物）： This is why the Supreme Court shouldn’t try to do the EPA’s job https://newrepublic.com/article/183285/supreme-court-chevron-gorsuch-nitrous-oxide 保护堕胎权能帮到拜登么？ Abortion rights win big in 2023 elections. Can it help Biden win too? https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/minimidterm

10/07/2024

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2h 1m
06/11/2023

006 | 迈克・约翰逊都能当议长了，他行吗？ The Ascension of Mike Johnson

【聊了什么】共和党选出了新议长：迈克・约翰逊。迈克・约翰逊是谁？他为什么能当上议长？他当议长面临什么样的挑战？他会怎样面对？这期播客我们从选议长一路讨论到了怎么当议长。【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:05 回顾第一轮推选议长的过程（兼对上上次播客里的预测的回顾） 03:08 乔丹是怎么输的 08:26 第二轮选举，约翰逊怎么赢的 11:11 约翰逊的资历和他胜选和关系 18:11 约翰逊曾担任主席的学习委员会是怎么回事 23:22 当议长需要什么技能和人脉 28:23 临时拨款协议对约翰逊的挑战 30:49 约翰逊如何解决党内关于堕胎的矛盾 40:43 约翰逊会如何解决两党关于军援/边境安全的拨款问题 44:58 麦康奈尔、拜登、和共和党保守派在外交问题上的矛盾 49:00 议长最重要的权力：议程设置 50:54 约翰逊的蜜月期会有多长 52:18 约翰逊的个人形像对共和党的选情有多重要 55:50 特朗普为什么可以频频踩福音派的红线还不受惩罚 01:00:34 接下来两周的看点【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子寄馀生：比较政治爱好者本期节目由Talich制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Talich。美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。【 What We Talked About】 If the ascension of Mike Johnson to the office of speaker of the House proves one thing, it’s that “keeping a low profile and biding your time” actually works. So who is Mike Johnson? What challenges does he face as the new speaker? How would he go about it? In this episode, we talk about the ins and outs of what it takes to become speaker of the House. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:05 Overview of what happened in the previous rounds of selection (and to see how right or wrong our predictions in the previous episode turned out to be) 03:08 How Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan lost 08:26 How did Johnson win the second round of the election? 11:11 Johnson’s credentials, his electoral success and connections 18:11 What happened to the Republican Study Committee Johnson once chaired? 23:22 What skills and connections are needed to be the speaker? 28:23 One of Johnson’s first tests as speaker: Continuing Resolution(CR) 30:49 How will Johnson resolve the conflict within the Republican party over abortion policy? 40:43 How would Johnson resolve the bipartisan funding issue for military aid/border security? 44:58 Conflicts between McConnell, Biden, and Republican conservatives on foreign affairs issues 49:00 The speaker’s most important power: agenda setting 50:54 How long will Johnson’s “honeymoon phase” be? 52:18 How important is Johnson’s personal branding to GOP’s upcoming elections? 55:50 Why Trump can repeatedly cross Evangelical’s red lines with impunity 01:00:34 What to watch for in the next two weeks 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media.

06/11/2023

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1h 5m
31/05/2024

016 | 特朗普“封口费”刑事案被判有罪，然后呢？Trump Found Guilty in “Hush Money” Trial, What Next?

【聊了什么】经过两天的审议，纽约法院陪审团裁定特朗普在“封口费”一案中34项伪造商业记录罪名全部成立。由此，特朗普成为美国历史上第一位被刑事定罪的前总统。这一审议结果不仅震惊了美国政坛，也对特朗普未来的政治生涯投下一层不确定的阴影。结果公布当天，我们紧急录制了本期节目，回顾整个案件的发展过程，并深入分析了不同政治团体的反应、公众舆论以及特朗普被定罪的法律和社会影响。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://americanroulette.ghost.io/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:08 陪审团9小时审议之后迅速判决意味着什么 08:03 “封口费”案回顾 13:30 关键证人盘点 22:30 有罪判决对选情的影响 32:04 右翼对判决的反应 35:28 负面党派情绪 38:54 民主党的应对策略 45:10 特朗普真的会入狱吗？ 49:51 特朗普面临的其它三项刑事诉讼【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 After two days of deliberation, a New York court jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the "hush money" case. This made Trump the first former U.S. president in history to be convicted of felony crimes. The verdict not only shocked the American political scene but also cast a shadow of uncertainty over Trump's future political career. On the day the verdict was announced, we recorded this emergency episode to review the development of the case and to analyze the reactions from different political groups, public opinion, and the legal and social implications of the verdict. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:08 What does it mean for the jury to reach a verdict after mere 9 hours? 08:03 Review of the “hush money” trial 13:30 Review of key witnesses and testimonies 22:30 How does the guilty verdict affect the presidential election 32:04 Reactions from the right 35:28 How the verdict deepens partisanship 38:54 Strategic repsonses from Democrats 45:10 Will Trump really go to prison? 49:51 The other three criminal lawsuits Trump is facing 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

31/05/2024

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54 min
25/10/2023

005 | 变革中的美国媒体 The Shifting American Media Landscape

【聊了什么】默多克的退休，成为了电视媒体时代落幕的又一个注脚。我们从默多克聊起，聊到了不同时代、不同派别的美国媒体在政治和选举中扮演的角色。2024年和未来，美国政客们又会如何利用TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台？【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:23 退而不休的默多克和家族的“继承之战” 10:20 福克斯新闻意识形态和美国电视新闻节目形态的演化 22:06 政治脱口秀的崛起 29:25 CNN的崛起和变化 42:29 MSNBC的崛起和变化 54:26 媒体和技术变革对美国政治和传播的影响 1:05:05 总统的诞生不仅要靠个人努力，也要看历史进程 1:19:24 TikTok和其它新兴媒体平台会如何影响2024年大选 1:28:19 “网红”当上总统还要多久？【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者杨一：旅英媒体人小华：媒体人，美政观察者本期节目由小华制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Xavier。美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。【 What We Talked About】 Rupert Murdoch's retirement is just the latest footnote to the end of the television era. We started this episode talking about Murdoch’s outsized influence on American politics, and how mass media have shaped politics and elections in different generations and political factions. How will politicians use TikTok and other emerging media platforms in 2024 and in the future? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 2:23 Murdoch may be retired, but he’s not resting. What comes next in this real-life “Succession” show? 10:20 Fox News’s ideology and how American TV news programming evolved over the years 22:06 A uniquely American cultural product: late night political comedy 29:25 CNN’s meteoric rise and how it changed in recent years 42:29 MSNBC’s rise and its role in American politics 54:26 How technological developments in mass media affect American politics 1:05:05 How mass media made various previous presidents — timing matters 1:19:24 How will TikTok and other new social media platforms affect the upcoming 2024 election 1:28:19 How far are we from getting the first “influencer” president? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Yang Yi: Journalist based in London 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Xiao Hua. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media. 【拓展链接 The Links】杨一的明信片 | Yang Yi | Substack 杨一的小红书 - 个人页 (xiaohongshu.com) 92岁默多克退休：传媒大亨与两个大国的纠葛｜新闻实验室 001 | 「继承之战」：无法背叛的父亲，和无法拯救的帝国 The War of "Succession" - 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink Inside Rupert Murdoch’s Succession Drama | Vanity Fair 最响亮的声音 (豆瓣) Inside the Meltdown at CNN - The Atlantic Crush On Obama - YouTube

25/10/2023

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1h 32m
09/08/2024

024 | 哈里斯的梦幻开局和副总统沃尔兹的选择 Harris's Dream Start and the Choice of Tim Walz

【聊了什么】拜登退选并宣布支持哈里斯之后的最初几周，哈里斯打出了梦幻开局。8月6日，哈里斯选择明尼苏达州的州长蒂姆·沃尔兹（Tim Walz）为自己的竞选搭档。我们会在本期节目中盘点哈里斯的开场，副手的选择，以及特朗普的反应。本期播客录制与美国东部时间8月6日晚间。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:15 过去一个月的感受 00:03:00 哈里斯成为民主党总统候选人后的党内团结和士气高涨 00:15:32 哈里斯的好感度上升及其原因 00:18:00 万斯好感度和特朗普的绑定 00:23:06 拜登/哈里斯的竞选团队 00:25:58 民主党选民政治联盟可能的变化和挑战 00:28:20 哈里斯竞选策略和政策立场的转变 00:32:32 哈里斯选择蒂姆·沃尔兹作为副总统候选人以及没有选别人的原因 00:35:38 北卡州长库珀主动高风亮节 00:39:21 宾州州长夏普罗最终出局 00:45:30 沃尔兹如何成为左派的最爱 01:03:25 沃尔兹的竞选能力怎样 01:07:45 民主党给共和党贴上怪异（Weird）标签的策略能否奏效 01:10:13 特朗普对哈里斯的种族主义攻击 01:17:23 特朗普竞选策略的变化【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。我们的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师小华：媒体人，美政观察者【 What We Talked About】 Following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement, Harris launched her campaign with remarkable momentum. On August 6th, she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. In this episode, we'll analyze Harris's campaign kickoff, the veepstakes, and Trump's response. This podcast was recorded on August 6th at 8 PM Eastern. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:15 Reflecting on the past month 00:03:00 Democratic Party unity and surge in morale post-Harris nomination 00:15:32 Understanding Harris's rising favorability ratings 00:18:00 Vance's approval tied to Trump's fortunes 00:23:06 Breakdown of the Biden/Harris campaign team 00:25:58 Shifts and challenges in the Democratic voter coalition 00:28:20 Evolution of Harris's campaign strategy and policy stances 00:32:32 Unpacking Harris's VP pick: Why Walz, why not others 00:35:38 Governor Cooper's (NC) strategic withdrawal 00:39:21 Governor Shapiro's (PA) exit from VP contention 00:45:30 Walz's ascent as a progressive favorite 01:03:25 Assessing Walz's campaign chops 01:07:45 Viability of the Dems' "weird" strategy 01:10:13 Examining Trump's racist attacks on Harris 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】定义卡玛拉·哈里斯 https://theamericanroulette.com/defining-kamala-harris/ 两集新播客和三个梗🥥🌴 https://theamericanroulette.com/meme-saves-america-kamala-harris-brat/

09/08/2024

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1h 21m
31/12/2023

003｜垫底俱乐部：一场酣畅淋漓的Y2K校园“发烧梦” A Gen Z High School Fever Dream

【聊了什么The What】有人说Bottoms 垫底俱乐部是一部高校性转版的《搏击俱乐部》，但其实远远不止如此。它荒诞离奇，充满暴力和一些隐藏的不算太深的讽刺和哲思，是适合我们这个时代的美国高校喜剧电影。故事围绕着Josie和PJ这一对好友展开，她们是这所美国高中食物链的底层，不只是因为她们是拉拉，而是用她们自己的话来说：“gay，ugly and untalented”。在高三毕业前的最后一年这对好友决心突破自己，互为僚机泡到全校最受欢迎的拉拉队队员，而她们达成目标的方式就是阴差阳错组建了这个高中第一个女子搏击俱乐部。 Some say "Bottoms" is a high-school-themed, gender-flipped version of "Fight Club," but it's far more than that. It's a bizarre and whimsical journey, filled with violence and some blazen satire and not-so-subtle philosophical musings— a perfect update of the high school comedy genre fit for our times. The story revolves around Josie and PJ, a dynamic duo situated at the bottom rung of the American high school social ladder. Their struggles extend beyond being lesbians; in their own words, they're "gay, ugly, and untalented." In their final year before graduating high school, this determined pair sets out to break free from their constraints to date the two most popular cheerleaders in the school. Their unconventional method? Accidentally forming the first all-female fight club in the high school. 【时间轴 The When】 00:00 对电影的初印象：高校性转版的《搏击俱乐部》? 10:46 电影里的主要女性角色 33:51 时空错乱美学：Y2K的视觉叠加在2023年的观念上 43:30 美国高校电影和我们的酷儿启蒙 54:48 为什么这部电影里的暴力如此令人心旷神怡（？） 01:15:54 这个电影吃了几个性别研究博士生？ 01:32:58 今夏其他破破烂烂间歇发疯但是歌颂暖心女性友谊的喜剧电影 00:00 Initial Impressions of the Movie: A Gender-Swap High School Version of "Fight Club"? 10:46 Deep dive on our favorite characters 33:51 Aesthetic of Temporal Disarray: Y2K Visuals Superimposed on 2023 Concepts 43:30 American High School Movies and Our Queer Enlightenment 54:48 Why the Violence in This Movie is So Delightfully Liberating (?) 01:15:54 This Film is a Gender Studies Love Fest 01:32:58 Other Ragged, Intermittently Insane, Yet Heartwarming Comedies Celebrating Female Friendship This Summer 【拓展链接 The Links】 ‘Bottoms’ Review: Physical Education Getting So High That You Think You’re Going to Die - Ayo Edebiri - Taking the Stage Sabrina Wu - Hot Girl Impression 【我们是谁】大波福娃是一档中文女权喜剧播客。我们希望用笑声对抗禁忌，用幽默消解规训。这里聚集了一群长期在海外生活的女权主义者，我们通过嬉笑怒骂的方式观察世界，调侃父权。我们想创造一个安全的空间，鼓励更多由女性和酷儿群体主导的对话，为宇宙指明发展的方向！ Who We Are “Dat Beauvoir” is a Chinese feminist comedy podcast. We aim to combat taboos with laughter and dissolve patriarchal norms with humor. Here gathers a group of diasporic feminists residing overseas. Together we observe the world, mocking male supremacy through playful banter. We want to create a safe space, encouraging more conversations led by women and LGBTQ+ communities, shedding light on the right path for the universe's future with laughter and satire! 本期我们的主播和嘉宾：桃子（she/her）：一个还没出道就隐退了的业余脱口秀演员，精通捆粽子和翻花绳跑跑（they/them）：工匠/小丑/人民教师/高科技亚逼（消歧义），尊重且热爱谐音梗，老龄 Z 世代。小苕 (it/its)：一颗零零后坡塔头，咖喱牛腩里的薯仔，地三鲜里的土豆 Nancy (she/her)：惨惨的博士僧，是一个older millennial中年人小蓝 (she/her）：来自隔壁疲惫娇娃的另一个older millennial Our hosts and guests: Sis Peach (she/her): I have a Golden retriever, a plush dog with an imaginary ESA vest. Runrun (they/them): local shop tech / clown / adjunct / computer beep boops, pun always intended. Shao (it/its): A potato with Chinese characteristics. Can’t be fried or smashed. Nancy (she/her): a struggling PhD, older millennial Lil Blu (she/her)：another older millennial from a podcast nextdoor 本期节目由小蓝制作，Ruby Yang设计封面，Valere Chen进行音频编辑。大波福娃是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。 This episode was produced by Xiao Lan, Ruby Yang designed the logo. Valere Chen edited the episode. Dat Beauvoir is a podcast produced by Baihua Media. 【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：众筹平台链接： Patreon https://www.patreon.com/datbeauvoir 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/datbeauvoir 合作投稿邮箱：dat.beauvoir.pod@gmail.com

31/12/2023

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1h 38m
19/01/2024

009 | 2024年美国大选艾奥瓦冷清开场 Review of the Iowa Caucus

【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选周期在冰冷的艾奥瓦州冷清开场，特朗普以压倒性优势轻松获胜。共和党初选距离变成垃圾时间可能仅剩一步之遥？【会员计划】美轮美换会员计划上线了！加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year 月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month 微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk 感谢你对美轮美换的支持！众筹平台链接： Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:47 艾奥瓦党团会议结果回顾 05:11 艾奥瓦州初选的历史和特殊性 12:00 特朗普、德桑蒂斯、黑莉和拉瓦斯瓦米在艾奥瓦的策略 23:55 展望新罕布什尔州初选 34:50 特朗普对共和党的绝对控制力 45:35 艾奥瓦州初选的赢家除了特朗普还有民调更正： 39:05 Bob Dole在艾奥瓦大胜时间应该为1988年 42:00 出口民调中认为和自己“share the same value”最重要的选民中特朗普赢了40% 【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子小华：媒体人，美政观察者本期节目的制作人是小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客，更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。【 What We Talked About】 The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election cycle kicks off in the frosty backdrop of Iowa. Donald Trump secures the victory effortlessly with a significant margin. Is the Republican primary on the brink of becoming a mere formality? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:47 Review of the Iowa caucus results 05:11 Why is Iowa so unique? Why is it first? 12:00 Strategies of Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy in Iowa 23:55 Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary 34:50 Trump's absolute control over the Republican Party 45:35 Winners of the Iowa Primaries: Trump and the polls 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes. In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.” Our Hosts and Guests: Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast. 【拓展链接】 Iowa Poll: Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads big (desmoinesregister.com)

19/01/2024

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50 min

Baihua Media is dedicated to informing and empowering the growing Chinese-speaking diaspora community around the world, by serving honest dialogues, encouraging open communications, and empowering authentic expressions, through a network of high-quality Chinese-language podcasts.

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