Space Commerce Week

Ex Terra Media, LLC

A weekly newsletter published to the community highlighting the news of the week and letting you know who our podcast guest is that week. We will look ahead to the coming week to see what's happening and let you know. www.exterrajsc.com

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    European Regulations, Weird Space Stuff, and a Bid for Globalstar

    The European Union is pressing ahead with its landmark EU Space Act — even as the regulation faces mounting legal questions from its own advisers and a sharp rebuke from the United States government. The Council of the EU circulated a Presidency compromise text this spring, with a key negotiating session scheduled for April 21st. But the road to final agreement is getting more complicated by the week. Here’s the backdrop: the EU Space Act is designed to replace a patchwork of national licensing regimes. Thirteen EU member states have enacted their own space laws — often with conflicting standards. The act would create one unified framework covering safety, resilience and environmental sustainability, and it would establish a new certification system called the EU Space Authorization — or EUSA — for satellite operators, launch providers and related space services companies. But the Council’s own Legal Service raised red flags in a January opinion, concluding that while the act’s core provisions are legally sound, its reach into the downstream data economy is questionable. Specifically, the legal advisers warned that requiring so-called “primary providers” — satellite communications and Earth observation companies that act as data intermediaries — to verify that all their data comes from EUSA-compliant satellites may be disproportionate. The opinion stated, quote, “In the absence of adequate evidence and explanation, it is questionable whether this approach is proportionate and remains within the limits of the proposed legal basis,” end quote. And that’s not the only pressure point. The United States government formally objected to the draft regulation in November 2025, with the State Department submitting comments calling several provisions, quote, “unacceptable regulatory burdens” on American companies doing business in Europe. The Office of Space Commerce coordinated the U.S. response — working with more than 70 American companies and multiple trade associations. Washington’s position: the EU Space Act contradicts commitments made under a U.S.-EU framework agreement signed in August 2025 aimed at reducing non-tariff trade barriers. The U.S. is asking Brussels to align the act with internationally agreed guidelines rather than writing new unilateral standards, to create clear equivalency pathways for non-EU operators, and to publish key implementation details directly in the regulation text — rather than leaving them to be filled in later by Commission officials. The anti-circumvention provisions targeting so-called “gatekeeper” entities in the data market remain the most contested elements. Those provisions drew both the legal proportionality concerns from the EU’s own lawyers and the trade objections from Washington. The April 21st working party session will be a critical test of whether negotiators can resolve those issues — or whether this landmark regulation hits another wall. All delegations currently have scrutiny reservations on the text. In plain language: nobody has signed off yet. -0- A new report from Stratview Research projects the global satellite communications market will reach $50.86 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual rate of 9.2 percent. The headline driver: rising demand for connectivity in remote and underserved areas. Satellite systems are filling a gap that ground-based infrastructure simply cannot reach — and that gap, by the numbers, is enormous. A few details worth noting from the report: Broadcast services are expected to hold the largest market share across the forecast period. The demand for high-quality, uninterrupted digital content delivery is a key factor, and satellite broadcasting has a reliable infrastructure edge over terrestrial networks in wide-area coverage. On the consumer side, Direct-to-Home — or DTH — service is projected to remain the dominant application segment. That’s driven by strong subscriber demand for personalized, high-quality content delivered directly to households, including in markets where traditional cable or fiber infrastructure doesn’t reach. The fastest-growing end-user category is the enterprise segment. Industries like mining, oil and gas, aviation, telecom and defense are all leaning harder on satellite communications for reliable connectivity in environments where no terrestrial option exists. And geographically, North America is expected to be both the leading and fastest-growing region over the forecast period — driven by government investment, mature technology capabilities and the presence of major industry players. The integration of 5G, artificial intelligence and cloud-based satellite systems is accelerating real-time connectivity and expanding application areas. Defense communication and secure data transmission are also strengthening demand. So — just shy of 51 billion dollars by 2032, growing at better than nine percent a year. Those are the numbers shaping where investment, competition and regulatory attention in this space are headed. -0- Rocket Lab’s acquisition of German laser communications company Mynaric (mun-AHR-ic) has cleared a significant regulatory hurdle — and it brings a critical satellite technology in-house for one of the industry’s most aggressive vertical integrators. Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has reviewed and approved the deal. The transaction is not yet closed, but regulatory approval in Germany is a major milestone. So why does this matter? Laser communications — also called optical inter-satellite links — represent a fundamental shift in how satellite constellations talk to each other and relay data to the ground. Compared to traditional radio frequency systems, laser comm offers higher data rates, better security, greater scalability and more efficient use of spectrum. The problem has been supply. For constellation operators trying to build at scale, laser comm terminals have been a persistent bottleneck — hard to source in volume, expensive, and often delayed. Rocket Lab CEO Sir Peter Beck put it plainly. Quote: “Laser communications are a critical enabler for the constellations of today and tomorrow, and Rocket Lab is going to make them available at scale.” End quote. The acquisition follows a pattern Rocket Lab has executed before. The company has a track record of identifying satellite subsystems that are only available in small quantities and at high prices — and then scaling production to serve the broader market. From solar panels to reaction wheels and star trackers — Rocket Lab has done this across multiple components. The pitch with Mynaric is the same playbook applied to optical terminals. There’s already an existing relationship here. Mynaric is a subcontractor to Rocket Lab, providing CONDOR Mk3 optical terminals for Rocket Lab’s 1.3-billion-dollar prime contracts with the Space Development Agency — covering 36 satellites across the Transport Layer-Beta Tranche 2 and Tracking Layer Tranche 3 programs. Mynaric also supplies other SDA contracts, and the two companies share a significant customer overlap across commercial constellation operators and defense agencies. After closing, Mynaric will remain headquartered in Munich, Germany — establishing Rocket Lab’s first European footprint and expanding its ability to serve German and broader European space programs. Planet Labs has announced what it’s calling a landmark technical achievement — and it’s a genuine one. The company successfully deployed and ran artificial intelligence object detection directly onboard its Pelican-4 satellite. No downlink. No waiting. The analysis happened in orbit. Here’s the specifics: On March 25th, Planet’s Pelican-4 satellite was flying approximately 500 kilometers — about 310 miles — over Alice Springs, Australia. The satellite captured an image of an airport and then used its onboard NVIDIA Jetson Orin module to run an AI model that detected airplanes in the image — in moments. Planet describes this as one of the first times an Earth imaging satellite has moved beyond simple data capture to actual onboard AI inference. The company calls this vision “Planetary Intelligence.” Why does it matter? Because the traditional model in satellite Earth observation has been: capture an image, downlink it to a ground station, process it on the ground, then get the result to the customer. That pipeline can take hours. Moving AI to the edge — to the satellite itself — collapses that window to minutes. Planet CEO Will Marshall added that the company is, quote, “moving AI from the internet into the physical realm — effectively connecting the ‘eyes’ of our satellites with an onboard ‘brain’ to create a nervous system for the planet.” The practical applications here are immediate: disaster response, security monitoring, logistics — any scenario where minutes matter. The end-to-end process, from image capture to AI analysis to geo-rectified output, is designed to happen entirely in orbit, producing usable intelligence files — GeoTIFF and GeoJSON formats — without touching the ground. Planet says this technology will scale across its Pelican and forthcoming Owl constellations, building toward what the company describes as a near-real-time global intelligence network. -0- The FCC has a proposal on the table that commissioners themselves are calling “Weird Space Stuff” — and that name tells you something about how fast the space industry has moved beyond what regulators were originally built to handle. At its March meeting, the FCC unanimously approved a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking — an NPRM — seeking public comment on a proposal to make additional spectrum available for the command and control of spacecraft that support emergent space operations but don’t use spectrum as part of any radiocommunications services provided to the public. Think commer

    22 min
  2. 5 APR

    A Startup Hits Unicorn Status, and the Impact of the SpaceX IPO

    Here’s a number that would have seemed like science fiction three years ago — one-hundred-and-seventy million dollars for a Series A round. That’s what Starcloud just pulled in — and they plan to use it to put data centers in orbit. The company closed a $170 million Series A at a $1.1 billion valuation — making it a unicorn just seventeen months after its Y Combinator demo day. According to Starcloud, that makes it the fastest unicorn in Y Combinator history. The round is also more than double the size of the next largest YC Series A, bringing the company’s total capital raised to $200 million. So what does Starcloud actually do? CEO Philip Johnston framed it this way — and I’m quoting here — “The AI revolution is colliding with the physical limits of our terrestrial energy grid. We are quickly running out of places to build new energy projects for data centers on Earth.” His answer? Go up. Starcloud is building data centers in low Earth orbit, where solar energy is effectively unlimited and the permitting headaches that can add five years to an earthbound data center project simply don’t exist. And they’re not just talking about it. With only $3 million in pre-seed funding, the company designed, built, and launched its first satellite — Starcloud-1 — in 21 months. That mission flew the first NVIDIA H100 GPU to orbit, performed the first orbital AI training run, and ran a version of Gemini — the Google AI model — from space. That’s a serious set of technical milestones for a company that didn’t exist two years ago. The round was co-led by Benchmark and EQT — that’s the world’s second-largest private equity firm, with more than 100 billion dollars in assets under management and a portfolio of more than 70 data centers on the ground. Later this year, Starcloud-2 launches — featuring what the company calls the largest commercial deployable radiator ever sent to space, and 100 times the power generation of Starcloud-1. The company says it will be its first satellite running commercial workloads for paying customers. Bottom line: orbital AI compute is no longer a think-piece concept. Starcloud is building it, and some of the biggest names in venture and infrastructure just bet $170 million that it’s real. -0- Sidus Space reported its full-year 2025 financial results this week, and there are two stories inside those numbers. First, the challenging headline: revenue came in at approximately $3.4 million for the year — that’s a decline of about 28 percent compared to 2024. Cost of revenue increased 48 percent to roughly $9.1 million, driven largely by higher depreciation tied to the company’s expanding satellite fleet. Net loss for the year totaled $29.5 million, up from $17.5 million in 2024 — and that includes a $4.5 million non-cash impairment charge related to LizzieSat-1. On the company earnings call posted online, CEO and founder Carol Craig described 2025 as a, quote, “pivotal year” — framing the losses as investment, not failure. The company launched LizzieSat-3 in March of last year, demonstrated on-orbit AI processing through its Orlaith AI ecosystem, and validated sub-5-meter imagery resolution with a partner payload. “An important part of our strategy is that our satellites are company-owned and company-funded, with multiple customers contributing revenue before and after launch. Unlike others that may depend primarily on government contracts to finance and build their satellites, we made a deliberate decision to create a Sidus-owned platform, including the underlying intellectual property that can support commercial, civil space, and defense customers on a single satellite,” Craig said during the company earnings call. “This dual-use multi-mission model creates diversified revenue streams, broadens customer opportunities, and supports a more resilient business model in an increasingly dynamic geopolitical environment. Another important differentiator is that we intentionally designed our satellites to serve as both development and production platforms. From the beginning, our goal was to build a robust, redundant satellite architecture capable of testing and maturing technologies while simultaneously supporting customer missions.” But here’s the other story: the balance sheet. As of December 31st, Sidus had $43.2 million in cash — up from $15.7 million at the end of 2024. That’s a $27.5 million increase, driven by equity capital raises in the back half of last year. Working capital jumped from $8 million to nearly $35.7 million. They also expanded their contract portfolio significantly. Among the highlights — a ten-year IDIQ contract under the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program, which carries a potential ceiling of $151 billion. They expanded their manufacturing agreement with Lonestar Data Holdings for lunar satellite work to $120 million total contract value. And post-year-end, they announced that Maris-Tech’s AI-based edge computing payload is scheduled to fly on a Sidus mission in Q4 of this year. The company now holds 15 issued patents and has designs underway for multiple next-generation platforms, including a cislunar and lunar satellite called LunarLizzie — an 800-plus kilogram platform. -0- From Florida’s Space Coast to Silicon Valley — Momentus Space has completed its move into a new 61,100-square-foot research, development, and manufacturing facility in San Jose, California. The headline number here is the clean room. Momentus has gone from 4,500 square feet of clean room manufacturing to 16,000 square feet — nearly four times the capacity. The new facility also includes a machine shop, a dedicated mission operations center for monitoring and controlling spacecraft in orbit, and — notably — it comes with lower monthly operating costs than the company’s previous lease. CEO John Rood said the move positions Momentus to meet rising demand across the national security and commercial space sectors. The company has specifically called out Golden Dome and the MDA SHIELD program as programs it intends to support from the new facility. The San Jose location also puts Momentus closer to its supply chain, key industry partners, and the talent base in the Silicon Valley ecosystem — which matters when you’re scaling manufacturing operations. Momentus has had a complicated few years on the public markets, but this move signals a company focused on operational scale and execution. More clean room, lower overhead, and a mission control capability under one roof. That’s a meaningful infrastructure upgrade. For the first time in more than fifty years, human beings are flying to the Moon. NASA’s SLS rocket lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday evening carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, which the crew has named “Integrity.” The crew includes NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch — and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen. The main event comes tomorrow in the form of a planned multi-hour lunar flyby. The crew will photograph and observe parts of the Moon’s far side that have never been seen by human eyes in person. Total mission duration is approximately ten days, ending with a Pacific Ocean splashdown. This mission is not a lunar landing — it is a crewed test flight. But the objectives are foundational: validate life support systems with crew aboard, test Orion’s handling in deep space, and lay the groundwork for future surface missions. The commercial space implications here are significant. A sustained crewed lunar presence — which is the stated goal of the broader Artemis program — will require commercial logistics, commercial habitation, commercial surface systems, and commercial data services. What’s happening in orbit right now is the beginning of that pipeline. -0- From the Moon to the International Space Station — this next story is about a robotics startup with big ambitions and a mission manager with deep roots. Icarus Robotics, a New York City-based company co-founded by Ethan Barajas and Jamie Palmer, has awarded a contract to Voyager Technologies to support the in-orbit demonstration of its free-flying robotics platform — called Joyride. The demonstration is targeted for early 2027 aboard a space station. Under the agreement, Voyager will handle payload integration, safety certification, launch coordination, and real-time mission execution support. That’s what Voyager calls “mission management as a service” — and with more than 1,400 missions managed across its career supporting the ISS, the company has a well-established track record for getting payloads to orbit and operating them when they get there. Voyager president Matt Magaña called the Icarus contract exactly the kind of work the service was designed for — helping companies, quote, “move from ideas to proven flight heritage.” But what makes this story a little more than a straightforward contract announcement is the personal connection. Icarus co-founder Barajas participated in Voyager’s NASA HUNCH program as a high school student — a program that gives students hands-on experience building hardware for the space station. That early exposure to spaceflight shaped his path. Now his robotics company is coming back to the station — this time as a customer. The Joyride platform is designed for autonomous navigation and operations inside and around space stations — working in environments where human presence is difficult or costly. As commercial stations like Starlab move toward operations, the demand for capable autonomous robotics platforms in orbit is only going to grow. Icarus is early, but this demonstration could be a meaningful step toward a very large market. -0- Coming up this week on The Journal of Space Commerce Podcast, I talk with FCC Space Bureau Chief Jay Schwartz about the mission of the Space Bureau and th

    22 min
  3. 29 MAR

    NASA goes big on the Moon and Mars

    NASA is not tiptoeing into the future. It is sprinting, and using nuclear power. NASA this week unveiled a sweeping set of initiatives at its recent “Ignition” event, doubling down on its ambitions to return Americans to the Moon — and this time, to stay.​ At the heart of the announcement is an accelerated Artemis program. NASA aims to land astronauts on the lunar surface by 2027, with missions launching at least once a year after that, and eventually every six months. But this isn’t just about planting a flag. NASA is laying out a three-phase roadmap to build a permanent Moon base — starting with robotic deliveries and technology tests, moving toward semi-habitable infrastructure supported by international partners like Japan, Italy, and Canada, and ultimately establishing a continuous human presence on the lunar surface. ​Administrator Jared Isaacman explained some of the steps the agency is taking to meet those goals. “We are standardizing the SLS architecture with the Centaur 5 upper stage. We’re rebuilding and focusing expertise on ML1 pad turnaround and establishing the muscle memory required to support a higher launch cadence. The programs we left behind in this effort were not success stories. NASA takes ownership for the shortcomings, but contributing billions more and time that we do not have was not a pathway to success,” Isaacman said. “On that note, I welcome the interest from industry to make use of these capabilities in furtherance of our shared priorities. As we move forward, we intend to launch Artemis 3 in 2027 to test the integrated operations of Orion and one or both lunar landers in Earth orbit. What we learn from that mission will ideally give us the confidence to begin lunar landing attempts starting with Artemis 4 in 2028.” ​In low Earth orbit, NASA is rethinking the future of the International Space Station. Rather than abruptly handing operations over to private companies, the agency is exploring a phased transition — potentially attaching a government-owned module to the ISS, then gradually spinning off commercial stations — all to avoid any gap in America’s presence in orbit. ​On the science front, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is set to launch as early as this fall, and NASA is targeting up to 30 robotic lunar landings beginning in 2027. ​But perhaps the boldest announcement is this: NASA will launch Space Reactor-1 Freedom — the world’s first nuclear-powered interplanetary spacecraft — to Mars before the end of 2028, marking a historic leap in deep-space propulsion. ​Steve Sinacore is NASA’s program executive for Fission Surface Power. “Nuclear power also unlocks deep space. Past Jupiter, the sun is just another star. Solar cell efficiency drops to 4% at Jupiter, requiring extremely large solar panels, and it’s effectively 0 beyond that. And for deep space missions, chemical propulsion cannot escape its own mass fraction. These are not engineering problems. They are physics constraints, and nuclear power is the answer,” Sinacore said. “Additionally, nuclear-powered electric propulsion spacecraft will move cargo in space like railroads move freight on Earth, with incredibly high efficiency compared to chemical propulsion. And nuclear also brings more innovation to the game, allowing for higher power, more thrust, and eventually exotic propulsion concepts that will open up the art of the possible for future exploration missions.” ​To support all of this, NASA says it’s investing heavily in its workforce — converting contractor roles to civil service positions and opening new pathways for early-career talent. -0- We turn now to the quarterly earnings front, where several commercial space companies wrapped up 2025 with results that tell very different stories — but point toward the same direction: growth. Start with York Space Systems. The Denver-based company closed 2025 with revenue up 52 percent to $386 million, powered largely by work on Space Development Agency Transport Layer Tranche 2 contracts. Gross margin expanded by nearly seven percentage points to 19-and-a-half percent, lifting gross profit 133 percent. York’s net loss is narrowing — down 15 percent to $84.5 million — and adjusted EBITDA losses shrank 81 percent to just $8.3 million. ​CEO Dirk Wallinger called 2025 the year York defined what a modern mission prime looks like. The company delivered 21 Tranche 1 Transport Layer satellites — the first prime to complete an on-orbit delivery under that program — and turned around the Dragoon mission from contract to orbit in just seven months. That is roughly 75 percent faster than the traditional 30-month timeline. York completed its IPO in January, raising more than $580 million in net proceeds. Combined with existing liquidity, the company entered 2026 with nearly $900 million available. Management is guiding for full-year 2026 revenue of $545 to $595 million — and says more than 70 percent of the midpoint is already covered by existing backlog. ​Now to Planet Labs. The Earth imaging company posted record results for its most recent fiscal year. Planet CEO Will Marshall outlined the top line numbers to open his earnings call. “We generated a record $308 million in revenue, representing approximately 26% year-over-year growth. Non-GAAP gross margin was 59% for the year. Adjusted EBITDA profit came in at $15.5 million, and free cash flow was $53 million, representing our first full fiscal year of non-GAAP profitability, an excellent milestone for the team as we strike a balance between profit and growth,” he said. “Q4 was also a record for revenue, representing 41% year-over-year growth and our fifth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability. For the second sequential quarter, we achieved Rule of 40, which is our revenue growth plus adjusted EBITDA margin. And on an annual basis, we achieved Rule of 30, a full year earlier than we anticipated. “ ​Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $86.8 million — a 41 percent jump year over year. The headline GAAP losses look severe — a full-year net loss of nearly $247 million — but most of that stems from non-cash accounting charges tied to warrant revaluations connected to a rising share price. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was a positive $15.5 million, a sharp swing from a loss of more than $10 million the year before. Planet ended the year with a backlog of more than $900 million — 79 percent growth year over year — and nearly $640 million in cash. ​And then there’s Spire Global, which reported full-year 2025 revenue of $71.6 million — right at the midpoint of its guidance — but those numbers require context. Spire sold its maritime division in April 2025, which pulled down the top-line comparison. Strip out the maritime business, and revenue actually grew 44 percent in the fourth quarter. Spire CEO Theresa Condor explained some of the dynamics that led to these results. “The global demand environment for space-based intelligence has fundamentally shifted in SPIRE’s favor, and we are uniquely positioned to capture it. Three forces are converging. First, defense and intelligence spending on space is surging, not just in the United States, where the administration has targeted a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027,” she said, “but across Europe, where nations are making historic investments in strategic autonomy. Second, civil agencies like NOAA and NASA are shifting decisively toward commercial data procurement, with NOAA projecting billions of dollars in commercial weather data purchases over the next decade. And third, commercial industries from agriculture to aviation are adopting space-based intelligence at an accelerating pace. driven by AI and the operational advantages our data provides.” ​The company narrowed its net loss nearly in half year over year in Q4, and ended the year with more than $81 million in cash with no debt. Looking ahead, Spire is projecting full-year 2026 revenue — excluding maritime — of between $71 and $81 million, representing 41 to 61 percent growth over its remaining core business. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support this work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Paid subscribers unlock exclusive in-depth articles and analysis. for Space Commerce business leaders. The space industry has spent years building better eyes. Slingshot Aerospace says it’s time to build a better brain. The Austin-based company is introducing a framework it calls Space Operations Intelligence and Autonomy — or SOIA — which it describes as a new market category designed to move the industry beyond simply observing the space domain toward actively operating within it. I talked with Slingshot CEO Tim Solms about the development and what it means for Space Domain Awareness. (See audio transcript) Tim Solms is the CEO of Slingshot Aerospace -0- The Federal Communications Commission has voted to start a proceeding to bring greater spectrum abundance to cutting-edge, emergent ventures in space, namely supporting telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) for on-the-horizon endeavors like orbital laboratories, satellite repairs, and private inhabitable spacecraft. The new “Weird Space Stuff” proceeding looks to address shortages of available, reliable spectrum for such operations. The Commission will seek comment on ways to expand access, modernize the FCC’s rules, and give America’s space activities the predictable spectrum environment they need to thrive. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) looks to find ways to use market-based principles to see spectrum resources put to more intensive use in the service of the space economy. The NPRM seeks to clarify and expand the FCC’s traditional regulatory classifications so that emergent operations have more predictable spectrum access. The proceeding

    24 min
  4. 22 MAR

    Supply Chain Strain, Part 450 Update, and the Orbital Optical Gap

    America’s space industry is booming — but the supply chain keeping it aloft is buckling under the pressure. A new report from the Aerospace Industries Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers is sounding the alarm: the U.S. space industrial base was built for a different era, and it’s struggling to keep pace with explosive demand. Consider this — more than 3,400 U.S. space objects were launched in 2025 alone, nearly ten times the volume seen back in 2019. But the factories, suppliers, and testing facilities needed to sustain that growth? They haven’t scaled with it. The report finds that many critical components are supported by just three or fewer qualified domestic suppliers — and those suppliers are competing against larger industries for the same limited parts. The result: delays across major programs, rising costs, and fragility across the entire chain. AIA Vice President for Space Steven Jordan Tomaszewski said during a webinar discussing the report that there is no silver bullet for solving the supply chain issues. “It is a number of consistent lines of effort that a lot of times require government and industry to work together on. And not just, but there are some things industry can do on their own, certain things that government can do to have better visibility and to kind of work and help make strategic investments at time or modify policies and regulations,” Tomaszewski said. “So it’s not going to be a fully comprehensive list of all the things that we can do, but hopefully this will be a good roll up for folks just to understand where those pain points are, but then also how we can fix it working together.” Budget instability and inconsistent government demand signals are also discouraging the private investment needed to expand capacity. Smaller firms are being squeezed by regulatory and cybersecurity burdens they can barely afford to meet. The fix, according to the report, requires action on multiple fronts — better coordination between government and industry on long-term planning, easing outdated qualification requirements, expanding shared testing infrastructure, and creating financial incentives to bring more suppliers online. Tomaszewski said that 2026 will be the ‘year of the supply chain’ “There’s a lot of government and commercial interest of looking at what the problems are and how do we kind of make things better, which is great. And I think this study really is getting out to some of those specifics,” he said. “What’s that next level down? Okay, we can’t scale up production because these are kind of some of the bottlenecks right now. And then, you know, how do we start getting into the implementation phase of some of these recommendations?” Eric Fanning, AIA president and CEO said that a resilient space supply chain isn’t optional — it’s a national imperative. The question now is whether Washington and the industry will act before today’s bottlenecks become tomorrow’s crisis. Steve Tomaszaewski is scheduled to be a guest on a future episode of The Journal of Space Commerce podcast. -0- The Federal Aviation Administration has now fully consolidated commercial launch and reentry licensing under Part 450, retiring four older rule sets and moving operators onto a single performance-based framework. The agency’s aim is fewer duplicative approvals, more flexibility in how companies demonstrate safety, and less administrative burden on both industry and government. Part 450 allows a single license to cover multiple vehicle configurations, different mission profiles and operations from multiple launch and reentry sites all under one authorization, rather than a patchwork of separate approvals. Operators like Blue Origin, Firefly, SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and United Launch Alliance have now transitioned existing licenses ahead of a March 2026 deadline. For launch providers, the shift has two big consequences. First, it can materially shorten the time from contract signature to first launch, assuming internal teams can keep pace with more compressed data requests from the FAA. Second, it gives operators more room to iterate on vehicles and mission profiles without going back to square one on licensing every time they tweak a configuration. For satellite operators and investors, the message is that regulatory friction is less likely to be the pacing item than hardware and integration. If launch licensing uncertainty had been a reason to hold back on certain business models, this rule set removes at least part of that excuse. -0- York Space Systems has agreed to acquire Orbion Space Technology, a Michigan-based manufacturer of Hall-effect electric propulsion systems designed for constellation-scale missions. Orbion’s Aurora thrusters are already flying on York-built spacecraft, including platforms that support U.S. national security missions. On the surface, it is a classic supply-chain move: lock in a critical vendor by bringing it in-house. The deal reduces York’s exposure to external propulsion delays at the very moment that demand for maneuverable LEO spacecraft is accelerating. Orbion will operate as a wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, continuing to serve a broader set of customers while giving York preferred access and tighter design integration. But the timing matters. The acquisition comes only weeks after York’s initial public offering, which raised hundreds of millions of dollars and positioned the company more explicitly as a Tier 1 defense and commercial prime. Analysts project rapid revenue growth, and integrating propulsion directly into York’s platform roadmap is a way to support that scale without getting trapped in the same long lead times that are hitting other primes. For the rest of the ecosystem, this is part of a broader pattern. Prime contractors are using balance-sheet capital to secure scarce capabilities, from propulsion to optics. Smaller operators that once counted on shared suppliers may now find those vendors sitting behind a prime’s firewall or booked out by long-term framework agreements. Propulsion capacity is migrating from open market to captive asset faster than many business plans assumed. That makes early, durable relationships with remaining independent suppliers more important—and raises the odds that additional consolidation is on the way. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts, consider becoming a free subscriber. Paid subscribers support the publication and unlock premium content. ​ Orbit is not just getting crowded with spacecraft—it is getting cluttered with retired hardware. That is opening the door for orbital debris removal as a commercial service, not just a policy talking point. Astroscale’s planned ELSA‑M in‑orbit demonstration is a good example. Under a new launch agreement with Isar Aerospace, Astroscale will fly a roughly 520‑kilogram servicer designed to rendezvous with and remove an end‑of‑life Eutelsat OneWeb satellite. The mission is majority self‑funded, with additional backing from the UK Space Agency through ESA’s ARTES program as part of the Sunrise public–private partnership with Eutelsat. Isar will launch ELSA‑M on its Spectrum vehicle from a dedicated pad at Andøya Space in Norway, showcasing both launch flexibility and the orbital precision needed for close‑proximity operations. Spectrum is designed, built, and operated in‑house with a high degree of automation, giving Isar a path to scale production as demand for targeted missions—including debris removal—grows. For Astroscale, ELSA‑M is the next step on a roadmap that includes earlier missions like ELSA‑d and ADRAS‑J, which demonstrated key skills such as safe approaches, robust relative navigation, and controlled operations near uncooperative objects. ELSA‑M aims to become the world’s first commercial end‑of‑life service for “prepared” satellites, meaning spacecraft designed with interfaces that support docking and removal. From a space‑commerce standpoint, several points matter: Debris removal is moving from technology demo to revenue‑generating service tied directly to operators’ lifecycle plans. Launch providers see this as a growth market, building manifest flexibility and orbital targeting into their value proposition for rendezvous missions, and regulators and insurers are watching closely, because routine end‑of‑life services could eventually influence licensing terms, collision‑risk assessments, and premiums for high‑value constellations. The practical question is whether your satellites are being designed as “customers” for this emerging service layer. If interfaces and end‑of‑life concepts are not being baked into current programs, you could be closing off future options to mitigate debris risk and differentiate on sustainability. -0- There are start-ups looking to rethink what “infrastructure” means in orbit, and one of the more speculative ideas gaining attention is the concept of delivering sunlight to shaded or energy-constrained locations on Earth using space-based reflectors or power systems. Among those companies is Mantis Space, which just emerged from stealth with an oversubscribed seed round of more than $10 million. The concept is to place controllable platforms in orbit that can redirect solar energy on demand, extending productive hours for agriculture, industrial operations, or disaster response. For now, it is early-stage and high-risk. These concepts run into tough questions around launch and deployment costs, even under a streamlined licensing regime, precision station-keeping and attitude control to keep beams or reflections where they are supposed to be and regulatory and public acceptance, given concerns about light pollution, safety, and potential dual-use implications But from a supply-chain standpoint, they point in a consistent direction. More complex, persistent

    19 min
  5. 15 MAR

    A Spectrum Crunch, Voyager’s Results, and Private Astronaut Missions

    Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr is taking aim at one of the least-talked-about chokepoints in the commercial space industry — spectrum. On Wednesday, Carr shared a draft Notice of Proposed Rulemaking with his fellow commissioners. If it clears a full Commission vote at the agency’s March monthly meeting, the FCC would open a formal proceeding to address what it calls an acute spectrum shortage for emergent space operations — things like orbital laboratories, satellite repair missions, and private habitable spacecraft. The issue comes down to telemetry, tracking, and command — the radio signals that let operators control spacecraft in orbit. Even satellites that don’t offer public communications services need reliable access to that spectrum. Right now, the FCC says American innovators are facing a crunch that could delay, or in some cases prevent, the growth of domestic space technologies. The proposed rulemaking would move in two directions. First, the FCC wants to clarify its existing rules so that cutting-edge space operations have more predictable access to the spectrum they already use. Second, it wants to identify entirely new spectrum bands dedicated to these emerging use cases — giving companies a clear, reliable path to support the technologies they’re developing. Carr called the proposal the first step toward the spectrum abundance needed to give American space activities a predictable operating environment. It’s worth noting the FCC has already been active on this front. Earlier this year, the Commission launched a separate proceeding to release up to 20,000 megahertz of spectrum for high-speed broadband services from low-Earth orbit constellations, and it has begun a comprehensive review of its overall space licensing framework. The bottom line: spectrum may not be the flashiest topic in commercial space, but for the companies actually trying to operate there, it is foundational. Watch for the Commission vote later this month. -0- Voyager Technologies this week reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 — and paired that earnings release with a significant strategic investment that says a lot about where the company is heading. On the financial side, Voyager delivered net sales of $46.7 million in the fourth quarter, a 24% increase year over year. For the full year, the company posted $166.4 million in net sales — up 15% from 2024. The standout number, though, is backlog. Voyager ended 2025 with total backlog of $265.6 million, a 33% increase over the prior year. That’s a record for the company, and it’s driving a bump in 2026 guidance — Voyager now expects full-year revenue between $225 million and $255 million, which would represent year-over-year growth of 35% to 53%. The company’s Defense and National Security segment drove much of the momentum, with a 63% increase in fourth quarter sales to $35.7 million, led in part by progress on the Next Generation Interceptor program. The Space Solutions segment declined in the quarter, primarily because of the planned wind-down of a multi-year NASA services contract, which had been expected. Voyager also completed five acquisitions during the year, including ExoTerra Resource and Estes Energetics in the fourth quarter, expanding its propulsion and energetics platform. The company’s Starlab commercial space station development achieved 10 NASA milestones in 2025, and received $56 million in NASA cash milestone proceeds during the year. Total liquidity ended 2025 at $704.7 million. In an earnings call posted to the company website, CEO Dylan Taylor called 2025 a transformational year for the company, pointing to its completed IPO, record backlog, and what he described as accelerating demand across defense, national security, and space. “Our defense and national security segment grew significantly, up 59% year over year, driven by execution on next generation interceptor and other classified programs. Our backlog increased 33% year over year, entering 2026 with $266 million to support our accelerating growth,” Taylor said. “During 2025, we raised over $1 billion, including and executing on a successful IPO and issuing a follow-on convertible note, all strengthening our liquidity to fund innovation and strategic growth initiatives. We completed and integrated several acquisitions, expanding our capabilities to meet growing customer demand, which we expect to remain strong in today’s geopolitical environment.” Taylor was also bullish on the company’s Starlab private space station. “We anticipate NASA will soon release the RFP for the second phase of the Commercial LEO Development Program, or CLD, with a decision later in the year. We are highly confident in the modernized, cost-efficient, and commercially scalable solution that Starlab is delivering to NASA and other key stakeholders,” he said. “The architecture is designed to provide continuous U.S. presence in low-Earth orbit, while enabling a broader transition to commercially-led operations. As the program advances, we are expanding Starlab’s commercial ecosystem, building durable partnerships across mission logistics, life sciences, biopharma, advanced materials, and other high-growth verticals. The approach strengthens demand visibility and reinforces Starlab’s role as an ecosystem, not a single-use platform. “ But Voyager’s big news this week wasn’t just about financial results — it was also about where that capital is being directed. Along with its Low Earth Orbit plans, the company announced a multi-million-dollar strategic investment in Max Space, a startup developing expandable habitat technology for the Moon. Max Space’s approach is to build habitats that launch compactly — then expand up to 20 times their stowed volume once they reach their destination. That dramatically increases usable floor area per kilogram delivered, which matters enormously when every pound launched to the lunar surface carries a price tag. The flexible geometry of the design also allows the habitat to adapt as missions evolve, from early surface operations to long-duration habitation. Voyager says the investment is directly tied to its broader lunar roadmap, which spans cislunar mission management, surface logistics, propulsion, and power systems. It also aligns with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s stated goal of establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon by 2028. -0- Two companies from different sides of the Atlantic announced they are teaming up to explore satellite refueling — a technology that could fundamentally change the economics of operating spacecraft in orbit. Orbit Fab and Airbus Defense and Space are working together under a project called RADICAL — part of the European Space Agency’s Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems program, funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal is to assess whether Orbit Fab’s RAFTI refueling valve can be integrated into future Airbus geostationary satellites. The business case for refueling is straightforward: satellites are expensive to build and launch, and propellant is typically the limiting factor in a spacecraft’s operational life. If you can top off a satellite in orbit, you extend its mission lifetime, reduce the cost of replacing it, and gain the flexibility to reposition it as market conditions change. For defense operators in particular, that ability to maneuver — and the resilience it provides — is becoming a strategic priority. The RADICAL project is designed to work through the practical engineering required: what changes to mission operations, system design, and platform architecture are needed to make refueling possible for a production Airbus satellite? Orbit Fab brings the refueling technology. Airbus brings deep knowledge of geostationary satellite platforms and propulsion systems. Jacob Geer, Orbit Fab’s managing director in Europe, framed the collaboration as essential to enhancing European competitiveness in the telecom satellite market. The UK Space Agency’s head of telecommunications, Henny Sands, called it a great example of how adaptive the UK industry is to changing global requirements. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. Free subscribers received daily updates and this newsletter. Paid subscribers unlock premium articles focused on the commercial space industry. Two companies have announced new capital raises. Sierra Space closed a $550 million Series C equity round led by LuminArx Capital Management. The financing values the company at $8 billion post-money and brings total capital investment in Sierra Space since 2021 to more than $2 billion. The company says the new funding will support expansion of production capacity and continued development of national security space solutions. Sierra Space has been shifting its focus increasingly toward defense and intelligence customers. It holds contracts with essentially all eight space procurement agencies within the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community, including a $450 million award to build satellites for a national security customer and an SDA Tranche 2 contract worth up to $740 million for missile warning and tracking satellites. The company also completed all manufacturing and assembly milestones for its Dream Chaser spaceplane last year, with a demonstration flight planned for late 2026. -0- Meanwhile, HawkEye 360 closed an additional Series E round, raising approximately $23 million in new capital. The round included new investors Ghisallo, Principia Growth, and Sixty Degree Capital, alongside continued participation from the Strategic Development Fund. HawkEye 360 provides radio frequency signals intelligence from orbit and is currently integrating its recently acquired Innovative Signal Analysis business. CEO John Serafini said the round reflects investor confidence in the company’s strategy

    19 min
  6. 8 MAR

    Congress Pushes Back on FCC Overreach

    The bipartisan leadership of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee is pushing back hard on the Federal Communications Commission. Committee Chairman Brian Babin and Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren have sent a letter to FCC Chairman Brendan Carr urging the Commission to withdraw — or substantially narrow — a proposed rulemaking titled “Space Modernization for the 21st Century.” The committee leaders say several provisions of the FCC’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking go well beyond communications policy. Their letter warns that the NPRM would require satellite operators to, quote, take all possible steps to assess and mitigate collision risks and certify compliance with an FCC-established human casualty threshold — requirements they argue have nothing to do with spectrum management. The letter is explicit on the legal question. Members write that the Communications Act of 1934 contains no clear congressional authorization empowering the FCC to regulate space safety, space traffic management, or broader non-communications space operations. They also cite recent Supreme Court decisions as reinforcing limits on federal agencies asserting authority Congress never granted. And the stakes here are significant. The committee letter notes the proposed requirements would impact billions of dollars in commercial space activities and raise concerns under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and existing national space policy. The members are asking the FCC to either rescind the NPRM outright — or issue a new, narrower proposal confined strictly to radiofrequency communications licensing. No timeline has been set for the Commission to respond. -0- Rocket Lab is expanding again — and this time in two directions at once. The company has announced the acquisitions of Optical Support Inc. — or OSI — based in Tucson, Arizona, and Precision Components Limited, known as PCL, based in Auckland, New Zealand. OSI designs and manufactures custom high-precision optical and optomechanical instruments. Its systems are used in national security and commercial satellites, and the company’s resume includes contributions to NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and Sphere Las Vegas. Rocket Lab says OSI will strengthen its vertical integration for programs like the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, while also positioning the company for next-generation initiatives including the Golden Dome missile defense system and future Mars exploration missions. This acquisition follows Rocket Lab’s 2025 purchase of Geost (GEE-uhst), which formed the core of what is now called Rocket Lab Optical Systems. OSI was already a key supplier to Geost, so the integration should move quickly. On the manufacturing side, the acquisition of Precision Components Limited in Auckland creates what Rocket Lab is calling the Auckland Machine Complex — a dedicated facility for high-volume, high-tolerance machined components. PCL has been a Rocket Lab supplier for more than 15 years. Together, the two deals deepen Rocket Lab’s position as a vertically integrated prime contractor. The company currently holds a total contract backlog of 1.85 billion dollars across its launch and space systems businesses. -0- Redwire has released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results — and the headline from the company’s leadership is that 2025 was, in their words, a transformational year. Full-year revenue came in at $335.4 million dollars — a 10.3 percent increase over 2024. Fourth-quarter revenue was especially strong, jumping 56.4 percent year-over-year to $108.8 million dollars. During the earnings call which was recorded and posted to the company website, Redwire Chairman and CEO Peter Cannito said the company is positioned well for the future. “In 2025, Redwire transformed from a pure-play space provider to an agile, scaled, multi-domain space and defense tech company. We closed our transformational acquisition of Edge Autonomy in June 2025 and have been successfully executing on our integration plan to include the full assumption of Edge Autonomy into the Redwire brand,” Cannito said. “During 2025, Redwire moved up the value chain with five spacecraft platforms and multiple prime contracts in the US and Europe, and two mature combat-proven airborne platforms. We expanded our customer base to more than 170 civil, national security, and commercial space and defense tech customers, emphasizing our breadth and diversity. We added approximately 660 employees for an ending headcount of approximately 1,410 employees around the globe. We ended 2025 with record contracted backlog of $411.2 million, providing confidence as we move into 2026. And finally, strengthened our balance sheet and simplified our capital structure, ending with record year-end total liquidity of $130.2 million. Along with that backlog, the company ended 2025 with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.52 for the fourth quarter — meaning it booked significantly more new business than it recognized in revenue during the period. Total liquidity at year-end was $130.2 million dollars, more than double where it stood at the end of 2024. Among the highlights: Redwire landed a $44 million Phase 2 contract for DARPA’s Otter mission, which uses the company’s SabreSat platform in very low Earth orbit. The company also signed an eight-figure agreement to supply international berthing and docking mechanisms for The Exploration Company’s Nyx spacecraft, and delivered more than 100 uncrewed aerial systems to customers in seven countries following its June 2025 acquisition of Edge Autonomy. Not everything was positive. Redwire posted a net loss of $226.6 million dollars for the full year, driven in large part by more than $130 million dollars in non-recurring charges. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free subscriber. Pait subscribers have access to exclusive in-depth content. A piece of U.S. launch history has found a new home. Phantom Space has acquired key assets and intellectual property from Vector Launch Inc. — including flight-proven design elements, engineering data, and proprietary technologies originally developed for Vector’s small-launch vehicle program. Phantom plans to integrate those assets immediately into its Daytona launch vehicle — a two-stage, mass-manufactured rocket designed to deliver small satellites and spacecraft into orbit. Company officials say the acquisition reduces development risk and advances the path to orbital flight. There is a personal dimension to this deal as well. Phantom Space was founded in 2019 by Jim Cantrell — who was also a co-founder of Vector Launch. So the acquisition, in a sense, brings these assets back to one of the people who helped create them. The Daytona vehicle features a modular payload fairing capable of supporting a wide range of spacecraft — from CubeSats to ESPA-class payloads. The company says it has completed successful hot-fire tests of Daytona’s propulsion assemblies and plans to begin integration and qualification activities immediately, with stage-level testing and vehicle milestones scheduled throughout 2026. Phantom was founded by two of the original five members who built SpaceX. The company’s broader vision includes launch, satellite production, and future orbital infrastructure through its Phantom Cloud constellation. -0- There is a potential major shift reshaping the satellite connectivity market. A new report from Novaspace — the eighth edition of its Capacity Pricing Trends analysis — concludes that the satellite industry has entered what analysts are calling a Post-Capacity Era. The core argument: bandwidth is no longer the basis of competitive differentiation in this market. The driver of that shift is familiar. Starlink’s vertical integration and aggressive cost compression are resetting expectations across the sector. With global supply rising and cost bases falling, capacity pricing is now on a structural downward trajectory. Data-driven applications are experiencing the steepest price declines, due largely to low-cost non-geostationary orbit supply. Legacy video markets are facing their own structural pressures as viewing habits continue to evolve. The defining metric in this environment, according to Novaspace, is now cost per gigabyte. Starlink’s pricing — currently below 30 cents per gigabyte — is setting new industry benchmarks and pushing operators toward regional pricing strategies, promotional tiers, and more flexible service offerings. As satellite broadband approaches cost parity with terrestrial service in rural and underserved areas, the competitive landscape is expanding well beyond the satellite sector itself. The report concludes that in a world where bandwidth is a commodity, the competitive advantage moves downstream — to the terminal, the hardware ecosystem, and the service layer. Companies that can innovate at the device and user experience levels, Novaspace says, will be the ones that lead this next phase of the market. -0- In Depth this week ... a $17 million funding round closed quietly in February, and on the surface, it looked like routine Series A news. But the details tell a different story — and if you work anywhere in the space supply chain, this one is worth paying attention to. (Paywall) The company is Agile Space Industries, based in Durango, Colorado. It builds chemical propulsion systems — the thrusters that keep satellites in orbit, execute on-orbit maneuvers, and power in-space servicing vehicles. What makes the funding round notable is who is behind it: Lockheed Martin Ventures. And this is not Lockheed’s first check to Agile. It’s their third — seed round, bridge round, and now Series A. That pattern is not casual portfolio diversification. It is a prime defense contra

    16 min
  7. 1 MAR

    NASA releases a long-awaited report on Boeing’s Starliner; Starlab clears a major milestone; and the growing market for space robotics.

    We start with what may be the most closely watched accountability story in human spaceflight in years. NASA has officially released the findings of an independent Program Investigation Team that examined what went wrong during Boeing’s Starliner Crewed Flight Test back in 2024. Starliner launched on June 5th, 2024, carrying NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station. The mission was supposed to last eight to fourteen days. Instead, propulsion system anomalies discovered while the spacecraft was in orbit stretched the mission to 93 days — and ultimately led NASA to make the extraordinary decision to bring the spacecraft home without its crew. Wilmore and Williams eventually returned to Earth in March 2025 aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon. Now we know more about why. Investigators found what they describe as an interplay of combined hardware failures, qualification gaps, leadership missteps, and cultural breakdowns — all of which created risk conditions inconsistent with NASA’s human spaceflight safety standards. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that NASA had allowed “overarching programmatic objectives.” “Mistakes incurred from program’s inception and continued throughout execution, including contractual management, oversight posture, technical rigor, and leadership decision-making. Boeing built the spacecraft, and from the onset, NASA approved variances, and we agreed to fly it. As development progressed, design compromises and inadequate hardware qualification extended beyond NASA’s complete understanding,” Isaacman said. “Now, variances exist across all major aerospace programs and by themselves are not unusual. The engineering reality, however, is that Starliner, with its qualification deficiencies, is less reliable for crew survival than other crewed vehicles. And that was as noted by the report. But at NASA, we managed the contract. We accepted the vehicle. We launched the crew to space. We made decisions from docking through post-mission actions. A considerable portion of the responsibility and accountability rests here.” As a result of the findings, NASA has formally classified the Starliner crewed flight test as a Type A mishap — the highest-level classification — citing potential for a significant mishap and the financial damages incurred. No astronauts were injured, and the mission did regain spacecraft control prior to docking. But the classification signals that NASA is treating this with full seriousness. NASA says it will continue working with Boeing to address the technical challenges before flying Starliner again. The full report — with some redactions to protect Boeing’s proprietary information — is available on NASA’s website. -0- Transportation is just one aspect of maintaining a sustained human presence in Low Earth Orbit ... one big question is where will that human presence be when the ISS is retired, possibly as early as 2030. One of the possible replacement commercial stations is being developed by Starlab Space, and that company marked a significant milestone recently, completing its Commercial Critical Design Review, or CCDR, with NASA in attendance. This marks a decisive transition: the program is moving from the design phase into manufacturing and systems integration. In milestone terms, it satisfied the 28th checkpoint on Starlab’s NASA Commercial LEO Destinations Space Act Agreement — a mouthful, but what it means in plain English is that Starlab has demonstrated its design is technically mature, integrated, and ready to be built. According to Starlab CEO Marshall Smith, the CCDR is a critical step toward delivering that continuous access to Low Earth Orbit with — his words — “no gap in capability to science, industry or national interests.” He also emphasized that the program’s business plan review was completed in parallel, validating what he called a diversified commercial market rather than a government-dependent model. The Starlab program draws on a remarkable international coalition of partners, including Voyager Technologies, Airbus, Mitsubishi Corporation, MDA Space, Palantir Technologies, ESA, JAXA, and Space Applications Services. This is a significant milestone. A lot of things have to go right for humanity to maintain an unbroken chain of human presence in orbit — and Starlab just demonstrated that its piece of the puzzle is executable. -0- A new report from Verified Market Research finds that the global space robotics market — valued at 4.7 billion dollars in 2024 — is projected to grow to more than 7.3 billion dollars by 2032. That’s a compound annual growth rate of about 7.2 percent over the forecast period. What’s driving this? A few key forces. First, the increasing complexity of orbital and deep-space missions is accelerating demand for autonomous systems that can perform inspection, assembly, repair, and exploration tasks with minimal human intervention. Second, satellite servicing — including refueling, debris management, and in-space infrastructure maintenance — is creating sustained demand for precision robotic platforms. Third, rapid advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and sensor fusion are expanding what robotic systems can actually do, and where they can do it — from low Earth orbit to the Moon to Mars. The report notes that North America remains the dominant market, led by U.S. government funding, private sector innovation, and a mature aerospace industrial base. Europe is a strong secondary market. And Asia-Pacific is emerging quickly, with China, India, and Japan all expanding their space robotics capabilities. There are challenges too. Space robotics systems require extensive testing, radiation hardening, and customization for specific missions — all of which drive up costs and development timelines. And robotic failures in space carry serious financial and reputational consequences, which means reliability and redundancy engineering remain critical and expensive. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. To support our work and get access to exclusive content, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. The Commercial Space Federation has released a new study titled “Perfecting Public-Private Partnerships: The Future of Government Space Contracts,” authored by the policy consultancy Rational Futures. The report is a candid assessment of how NASA, the Department of Defense, and other space agencies structure their commercial relationships — and it argues that many of those agencies are getting it wrong in ways that lead to cost overruns, schedule delays, and missed opportunities. The core argument is this: agencies too often conflate “public-private partnership” with specific contract mechanisms — particularly firm-fixed-price contracts — without thinking carefully about whether those mechanisms match the actual risk profile of what they’re buying. The report frames procurement on a spectrum from fully government-controlled programs, where the public sector holds all the risk, to fully commercial models, where a private company holds all the risk and sells services to anyone who will buy them. Most space programs sit somewhere in the middle, and the paper argues that matching the right contract type to the right program characteristics is essential. The study holds up NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program — the original COTS effort that incubated SpaceX and Orbital Sciences — as the gold standard of what works: cost-sharing, multiple suppliers, stable requirements focused on outcomes rather than process, and large follow-on contracts that gave investors confidence. By contrast, it looks at the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program as a cautionary tale, citing overly optimistic demand projections, shifting requirements, and inconsistent oversight as contributors to delays and cost growth. The recommendations span three levels. At the agency level: build internal capacity in finance, economics, legal, and procurement — not just engineering. At the program level: conduct rigorous independent market assessments, signal clear multi-year demand, and avoid over-relying on a single vendor. At the contract level: match the procurement vehicle to where the technology actually is, not where you wish it were. The report’s authors sum it up this way: “Success requires careful planning, involvement of appropriate experts, and understanding of market conditions and program characteristics.” It sounds obvious. But based on recent history, it’s a lesson the industry apparently still needs to hear. -0- This week on The Journal of Space Commerce Podcast, I talked with Dr. Belinda Marchand, the chief scientist at Slingshot Space. Space has become a critical warfighting domain, requiring an approach to training that prepares warfighters to use new technology. AI is redefining space warfare training, and is becoming vital for deterrence and national security. Slingshot Aerospace is a U.S.-based space data and analytics company focused on making space operations more safe, sustainable, and secure through satellite tracking, space traffic coordination, and high‑fidelity modeling and simulation tools. Dr. Marchand said that using AI allows warfighters to train like they’ll fight. But she also said that the technology being used can be applied to commercial scenarios as well. “I think the defense use case was a very valuable and timely example of a way to demonstrate the capabilities of the technology. But the technology itself that powers things like Talos, or even that powers our anomaly detection software like Agatha or anomalous actor detection, all those technologies can be used for other purposes as well, right?” Marchand said. “You can use them to... fly your fleet to control your fleet, to achieve your on-orbit servicing objectives, anything that invo

    16 min
  8. 22 FEB

    A UK Launch Company in Crisis, and NASA Taps a Fresh Face for the Sixth Private ISS Mission

    The UK small launch sector is facing a rough moment. Orbex, one of Britain’s most prominent homegrown rocket companies, has filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators after its Series D fundraising round came up empty. Merger and acquisition talks also failed to produce a deal. With no funding lifeline in sight, the company is now formally exploring the sale of all or part of its business. It’s a painful moment for a company that was genuinely close to something. Orbex had brought hundreds of skilled jobs to Scotland, had been at the vanguard of UK space ambitions, and was on the verge of test flights for its Prime microlauncher later this year. All of that is now in limbo. But here’s where the story takes a turn. Skyrora — another UK launch company — has stepped forward with an interest in acquiring select Orbex assets, including the Sutherland Spaceport in northern Scotland. Skyrora says it’s prepared to invest up to ten million pounds — roughly thirteen-and-a-half million dollars — subject to due diligence and negotiations with the administrators. The framing from Skyrora is explicitly nationalistic: keeping UK technology under UK ownership, protecting national infrastructure, and safeguarding the return on taxpayer investment that went into Orbex over the years. Now, nothing is done yet. Administrators have only just been notified, and the legal process has to run its course. But if Skyrora does pull this off, it would be a remarkable consolidation story — one UK launch company absorbing the assets of another to create something more resilient. The Sutherland Spaceport alone would be a significant prize, as it’s one of the few licensed launch facilities in Europe capable of reaching polar and sun-synchronous orbits. -0- A new wave of industrial connectivity could be about to reshape how industries operate in remote and underserved areas — and the timeline is tighter than you might expect. New research from satellite company Viasat, based on a survey of 600 industrial decision-makers worldwide, finds that 91% plan to adopt direct-to-device satellite technology within the next 18 months. The sectors involved span agriculture, energy, mining, logistics, and utilities — industries where reliable connectivity has long been a limiting factor. At the heart of this shift is a technology called Narrowband Non-Terrestrial Networks — or NB-NTN — a connectivity standard that allows IoT devices to maintain a satellite link when ground-based networks are unavailable or overstretched. Think of it as a seamless fallback that kicks in without any manual intervention. The data suggests momentum is already building. 78% of respondents say their IoT deployments have accelerated over the past year — and among organizations already using hybrid satellite-terrestrial setups, that figure jumps to 86%. Viasat frames this less as a performance upgrade and more as a pursuit of what the report calls “coverage certainty” — the ability to stay connected at scale, regardless of where you are or what the local infrastructure looks like. The findings also carry a pointed message for mobile network operators: direct-to-device satellite capability shouldn’t be treated as a niche add-on. According to the report, it represents a genuine opportunity to expand into new enterprise revenue streams — without requiring significant reinvestment in existing networks. -0- The Idaho National Laboratory just released a report called “Weighing the Future: Strategic Options for U.S. Space Nuclear Leadership”, and it lays out three distinct paths forward. The first is what the report calls “Go Big or Go Home” — a large-scale, hundred-to-five-hundred kilowatt electric project led by NASA or the Department of Defense. But it’s high risk, high reward, and requires consistent top-level funding and political will. The second option — dubbed the “Chessmaster’s Gambit” — splits the approach into two smaller public-private projects, both under a hundred kilowatts. One would put a reactor in lunar orbit or on the Moon’s surface. The other would be an in-space system. The appeal here is flexibility — private companies choose the technology, which distributes risk and keeps timelines more manageable. The third path, “Light the Path,” is the most cautious — a small radioisotope demonstration under one kilowatt, designed mainly to build regulatory frameworks and institutional knowledge before committing to bigger bets. For context on why this matters: NASA has already issued a directive to place a fission reactor on the Moon by fiscal year 2030. That’s four years away. The technology challenges are real — space reactors have to be lightweight, run at much higher temperatures than terrestrial units, and operate for a decade without maintenance. None of that is easy. Sebastian Corbisiero, the Department of Energy’s Space Reactor Initiative national technical director, described the moment as potentially being on the cusp of a major step forward for nuclear power in space. And given that competitors — particularly China — are investing heavily in space nuclear capabilities, the pressure to act is real. Which path the U.S. ultimately chooses will say a lot about its appetite for risk — and its confidence in the commercial sector to deliver. The Journal of Space Commerce is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support this work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. NASA has selected Vast Space for the sixth private astronaut mission to the ISS. The flight is targeting no earlier than summer 2027, launching on a SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying a Dragon spacecraft. The crew will spend up to 14 days aboard the station. This is a milestone for Vast, which is best known for its ambitions to build and operate its own commercial space station — the Haven-2 — as a successor to the ISS. A crewed mission to the station is exactly the kind of operational credibility the company needs to make that case. Vast has framed the mission as part of the broader transition to commercial space stations, and fully unlocking the orbital economy. The science portfolio planned for the mission spans biology, biotechnology, physical sciences, human research, and technology demonstrations. What’s interesting here is the strategic layering. Vast isn’t just flying to the ISS for the publicity — the company has a live call for research proposals open right now, meaning external researchers can submit experiments for consideration aboard this mission. That’s a signal that Vast is trying to build an actual customer base and research pipeline before its own station even exists. The ISS is scheduled for deorbit in 2030. Between now and then, these private astronaut missions serve a dual purpose: they generate revenue for NASA and its partners, and they give commercial operators like Vast the hands-on experience they’ll need to run stations on their own. -0- Analysts at MarketsandMarkets are projecting the global space situational awareness market — SSA, for short — will grow from about 1.7 billion dollars in 2025 to nearly 2.8 billion dollars by 2030. That’s a compound annual growth rate of ten percent over five years. SSA, if you’re not familiar, is the business of tracking what’s in orbit: active satellites, spent rocket bodies, debris fragments, and everything in between. As constellations like Starlink and others pour thousands of satellites into low Earth orbit, the risk of collisions — and the cost of getting it wrong — increases dramatically. The debris segment is expected to hold the largest share of the SSA market. That tracks. There are hundreds of thousands of debris objects in orbit too small to track reliably but large enough to be catastrophic. Even a centimeter-sized fragment at orbital velocity carries enormous kinetic energy. Geopolitically, there’s another driver: governments want independent visibility into what’s happening in their orbital neighborhoods. That’s pushing investment in indigenous SSA infrastructure, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where China, India, Japan, and South Korea are all expanding their space programs and their appetite for homegrown tracking capabilities. The major players in this space currently include Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Kratos, Parsons, and Peraton — all defense-adjacent firms with deep government relationships. But as the market grows, expect more commercial entrants chasing the non-government slice of that revenue. So the bottom line would appear to be that, if you’re operating in orbit, knowing where your spacecraft ... and everything else ... is has never been more important — or more valuable. -0- In Depth this week ... The space economy is booming — but not in the way you might expect. Forget rockets and moonshots. The real action right now is in data. Earth observation satellites, geospatial intelligence platforms, and satellite communications networks are driving a steady wave of mergers and acquisitions, and investors are paying serious money to get in. (Paywall) Deals in 2024 and 2025 are showing revenue multiples in the one-to-four-and-a-half times range, with EBITDA multiples stretching into the teens — healthy numbers that hold up well against broader aerospace benchmarks. The buyers range from defense giants filling gaps in their geospatial portfolios to private equity firms building roll-up platforms around recurring data revenue. The message from the deal tape is clear: space data is now considered core infrastructure, alongside defense, climate monitoring, and global connectivity. But here’s where it gets complicated. Regulators are catching up — fast. The European Union is advancing a Space Act that would treat certain satellite-derived data much like personal data under GDPR. The OECD is raising red flags about high-resolution imagery being combined with AI to

    15 min

About

A weekly newsletter published to the community highlighting the news of the week and letting you know who our podcast guest is that week. We will look ahead to the coming week to see what's happening and let you know. www.exterrajsc.com