「CSIS」Podcast 節目

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19/04/2019更新
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11月8日

How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship. Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.

11月8日

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43 分鐘
7月25日

Ambassador Nicholas Burns on the U.S.-China Relationship

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. They discuss his time spent in China and his perception of current and future U.S.-China relations.

7月25日

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37 分鐘
1月5日

Will Sanctions Deter China?

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Emily Kilcrease, Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security to discuss her recent report entitled “No Winners in This Game: Assessing the U.S. Playbook for Sanctioning China.”

1月5日

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36 分鐘
10月31日

PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr. Jon Czin

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China’s view of the United State’s internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election. Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.

10月31日

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46 分鐘
10月17日

The Idea of China

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He is also the Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, Washington DC. They discuss his recently co-authored book The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People. (European Council on Foreign Relations, 2024)

10月17日

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47 分鐘
2月15日

China's New Domestic Politics

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Evan Medeiros, The Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies at Georgetown University. During the Obama Administration, Evan was on the staff of the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia and special assistant to the president and Senior Director for Asia. They discuss his recent report “The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations” published by the Asia Society Center for Public Analysis.

2月15日

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37 分鐘
1月18日

Xi’s New Growth Synthesis

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Andrew Batson, China Research Director at Gavekal Dragonomics to discuss his recent blog post entitled “Xi’s New Growth Synthesis.” He also publishes The Tangled Woof blog, and wrote the enlightening post “Some Cadres Cannot Keep Up.”

1月18日

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44 分鐘
5月16日

Beyond China's Black Box

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Jacob Stokes, Senior Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. They discuss China’s foreign policy decision making and his new report “Beyond China’s Black Box: Five Trends Shaping Beijing’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Under Xi Jinping.” (April, 2024)

5月16日

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45 分鐘
10月3日

The Sentinel State

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Minxin Pei, Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College. He is also editor of the China Leadership Monitor. They discuss his recent book The Sentinel State: Surveillance and the Survival of Dictatorship in China. (Harvard University Press, 2024)

10月3日

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36 分鐘
10月10日

Getting China’s Defense Spending Right: A Conversation with M. Taylor Fravel, George J. Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending. Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project. Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT. Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve.

10月10日

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51 分鐘

CSIS podcasts feature experts & scholars on a range of critical issues surrounding geopolitics, national security, defense, & international affairs topics.

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How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

Ambassador Nicholas Burns on the U.S.-China Relationship

Will Sanctions Deter China?

PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr. Jon Czin

The Idea of China

China's New Domestic Politics

Xi’s New Growth Synthesis

Beyond China's Black Box

The Sentinel State

Getting China’s Defense Spending Right: A Conversation with M. Taylor Fravel, George J. Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham

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